EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

[Gee]

lol, watching a stream of wolmarans game.

there are probably more of us here having a bet on the game than are there watching it.

could go either way...

[EaglesPhan36]

Well at least Wolmarans won. Stepanek already f-ed the other parlay up.

[Beason5209]

Unfortunately I played Stepanek. It didn't seem like he had a good match. Challenged Mayer's serve on only 1 game the entire match and had too many double faults at key times.

Good call on Walmerans. Wasn't sure but you convinced me with your write up.

[EaglesPhan36]

MOVISTAR OPEN: SOUZA [+100]
Souza and Maximo Gonzalez today. Both won yesterday over what seemed like out-of-form veterans. Souza outlasted Cuevas in straights while Maximo was able to work past Monaco in three sets. Neither was all that impressive in their wins. Souza dropped serve three times and almost choked away the 2nd set due to a break. Maximo took advantage of a pathetic service match from Monaco, breaking him five times out of ten tries while saving five of his 12 break points. The thing I THINK that concerns me about Maximo is he already pulled out of a tournament with a hip issue this year and reportedly received in-match treatment for a leg issue yesterday. He was also on-court for close to three hours. As detailed yesterday, Souza seems to enjoy this tournament as he made a deep run in 2010 and was able to enjoy success yesterday. The win over Monaco is sure to sway most bettors to jump on Maximo today, but I THINK with the potential leg issues and Souza more match-fit at this point of the season, I'll take a shot at the Brazilian. If he can get in a better percentage of his 1st serve [60% or better] to avoid letting Maximo tee off on his 2nd, I THINK he rates a shot to win.

[EaglesPhan36]

Meh. Another losing streak for me. Yay. Souza going down in the 3rd.

[noober]

souza gave away this match. so many double faults

[EaglesPhan36]

MOVISTAR OPEN: ROBREDO-MELLO OVER 21 [-118]
Both Robredo and Mello have started 2011 off well. Robredo showed well in Melbourne, making the 4th round of the Australian Open and stands at 5-2 on the season. He worked past Gil in the opening round, rallying for a three set win. One can forgive him for being rusty early since this was his first clay court match of the year. Robredo surprisingly did not play much on dirt in 2010, only about a dozen matches and he was at .500. Mello won a hard court Challenger to start the year off and then narrowly lost to Bellucci in 5 sets in Melbourne. He fought hard to beat Ramirez-Hidalgo in a third set tie break. Mello has shown some good fight and given his current form and Robredo subject to service yips now and again, I THINK this will be a competitive affair. Three sets wouldn't shock me and even in two, this total may still go over.

[EaglesPhan36]

It's hard god damn work being this bad, hard god damn work I say. Hope you're back on the fade train to millionairesville. 5-0 Robredo in the 1st. Sheesh.

[yoshiments]

we need a break here badly

[yoshiments]

ehhh yooo....we have life here EP

[EaglesPhan36]

Heh. Nice turnaround. If Mello can hang on for this set, maybe I can break the losing streak after all. That'd be nice.

[EaglesPhan36]

And of course he's choking it all away.

[yoshiments]

sigh....

[EaglesPhan36]

Choo Choo. Train rolls on. Up 5-3 in the 2nd, he can't close it out on serve and loses the tie break. Fukk me. Fade me.

[yoshiments]

So sick. Up 5-2 in second set with 2 break pts. Robredo saves them and holds serve then breaks mello. In tiebreaker Mello was down 6-2, then wins 5 straight points to go up 7-6. But, obv loses 3 pts in a row and we lose.

[EaglesPhan36]

2.3.11

JOHANNESBURG: WOLMARANS [+168]
Wolmarans and Dancevic. Two big servers going head-2-head here. Taking this based on the simple fact that if Dancevic had not defeated Lopez, the price for this would not be as out of wack as it is right now. No way can Dancevic deserve to be at almost -200. The Canadian is a capable hard court player, but certainly is very dependent on his serve as is Wolmarans. Both pounded a ton of aces in their matches yesterday. Dancevic though offered up a lot more opportunities for Lopez, ten breaks opps, but saved them all. Wolmarans only doled out two break opps, saving one. What I like best about Wolmarans is his ability to get his 1st serve in better than Dancevic and that could make a huge difference in a close battle. Wolmarans is routinely getting in 70% or much better on 1st serve, while Dancevic sometimes struggles to get in 60.

DEUCE: DODIG + PETZSCHNER [-115]
Dodig gets Marchenko, a repeat of last year in Zagreb. Marchenko dumped him easily last year, but Dodig's form on the indoor surface is much better now. The Croat won an indoor Challenger and made the QFs of the Stockholm tournament late last year. Marchenko is up & down as usual. He's been so-so this season while Dodig has been steady, only losing to top tier players. Dodig still needs to improve his 1st serve, but he should have some motivation here to get this done. Petzschner draws Bogomolov. Bogomolov has shown some capability on this surface on the Challenger level, but up against top level competition he seems a bit outclassed. His 1st round performance was shaky and he doesn't seem to possess the best game for this surface. Petzschner can really pop his serve when it's on, but also needs to do better on getting his 1st serve in even against someone who doesn't match-up with him quite as well.

[beefcake]

petz better wake the f up!

[Hotdiggity11]

Petz putting in a pretty shitty performance.

[Tsonga]

petz got hammered...fade material is right...

[EaglesPhan36]

You're welcome for the fade material.

[EaglesPhan36]

7 straight losses. Something like 7-18 in my last 25 picks. If you're not fading me for big profits, you are a bigger idiot than I am at making picks.

[EaglesPhan36]

2.4.11 FADE TRAIN

BERRER [+185]
I thought Berrer had a solid shot to make a run to the semis here before the tournament began and now he runs up against Gasquet who has yet to play a match here. Gasquet got the walkover yesterday against Clement, so who knows how he'll show. Berrer meanwhile has been playing well on this surface over the last two weeks and I've said it before, when he serves well, he has a shot against most players on this sort of surface. Gasquet has had a decent year, but nothing extraordinary thus far. On indoor hard courts, the Frenchman is an average performer though and Berrer has some good career scalps on this surface. He's also played very well at this tournament two years in a row now. If he gets that first serve in, I THINK Berrer can win. He needs to take it to Gasquet early though.

BOGOMOLOV-GARCIA LOPEZ OVER 22.5 [-105]
Bogomolov can't have much more confidence than his does now on this surface. The American is now 11-1 on the surface since late in 2010 when he won a Challenger title on an indoor hard surface. It may be difficult to read much in the performance yesterday against Petzschner as it looked like the German just didn't bother to show up. Still, Garcia-Lopez hasn't been immune to lapses in concentration and this is not his best surface either. He's also played seven straight three set matches now on this surface. He took advantage of a lackadaisical Lacko in his lone matchup here, but still managed to drop a lopsided set. With Bogomolov playing with confidence, I THINK he can keep this match competitive.

[beefcake]

Or even win it for that matter!

[legendmatt34]

And today?

[Regul8er]

Bogomolov unfortunately wont get you there......GGL is well on his way to a straight set win!
Get em back later man!

[EaglesPhan36]

Had the wrong number posted on the total. It was 21.5 which makes it even more comical and of course Gasquet couldn't make it through one more game to get me through a set and I would have won on Berrer. Tenns Gods hate me.

[Regul8er]

Its why I dont bet tennis anymore!

[EaglesPhan36]

DEUCE: GIRALDO + ANDERSON [-120]
Giraldo vs. Chela. Giraldo has been the better tested of the two thus far and come through in the clutch. It will be interesting to see how Chela fares against a big step-up in competition today. Where I THINK I like Giraldo better here is with his 2nd serve and service game overall. Chela has flirted a bit with disaster on giving out break points so far in this one and if he does it again today, I THINK Giraldo is the one to take advantage. Anderson over Beck in South Africa. The Big Stick has been serving well this week and I'm not sure how Beck is still alive, so he'll probably roll Anderson here - but I THINK if Anderson serves well, he'll be tough to beat. So get on the fade train baby.

[Regul8er]

I used to bet 5 dogs in a tournament, and they all lose......and the one big fav I would take would lose. Thn the next weekend, all the dogs win, when I lay back. It's a brutal sport to beat

[EaglesPhan36]

Well I maybe feel good about the Giraldo one. 5Dimes took the line down to re-evaluate and it comes back up at -210. Of course, I'll probably be on the wrong side of a fix or something here.

Switched it as a result from straight Giraldo to Giraldo + Anderson. Fade it.

[JNic]

these wins giraldo keeps pulling out and the way hes playing makes me think he will be top 20 in the future no doubt

[EaglesPhan36]

Giraldo crushes Chela. Wonder if that was a Chela fixer-upper special though with the way they changed the line big near the end.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gonna take my one win today and run!

[EaglesPhan36]

MAYER-BERRER OVER 22.5 [-115]
Both these guys have been playing solid tennis this week. Both have the ability to hold serve deep into sets and that will be one of the keys to getting this done. The thing is they also both have shown the ability to go from a high level to crap in the flip of a switch which means that I THINK a three set battle is in the offering today.

[EaglesPhan36]

All morning I'm saying I'm taking Berrer and then I shove off that onto the total and Berrer rolls. I have zero tennis mojo. Zilch. Nada. I'll keep posting so people can make money. If you're not fading me, you're a fool.