EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

[Pew Pew]

Clijister vs Kvitova? Who you gots?

[EaglesPhan36]

Quick court might give Kvitova a chance, but betting against Clijsters in hard court finals or finals in general is not a great proposition.

[Mikail]

I think the Clijsters Kvitova match is best not to play a side. Like EP said the court could give Kvitova a chance but who would wan't to put their money against Clijsters.

[DMB40]

ep what you think about going Verdasco and Almagro? and both overs

[Tsonga]

when i said it might be nice for Raonic to win a tourney I didn't think he'd have a chance this soon....should be a good final.

[EaglesPhan36]

ep what you think about going Verdasco and Almagro? and both overs

I'm always a little weary when books set totals at 23.5 when we're not talking about huge, huge servers like a Roddick, Isner or Karlovic or whomever where you're definitely going to see some 7-5, 7-6 sets. Think they try to lull you into thinking it's going to be a 3 set classic. I'd be shocked if one didn't go under. Sides really, flip a coin - there's not much to separate either. Only thing you could potentially say is that the money has gone on DelPo. Almagro-Dolgopolov line ran down to where Dolgopolov was a favorite earlier today, but it's back to Almagro as a firm favorite so no real clues given from the money movement there.

My personal picks if you put a gun to my head .... I don't know. They are both really close. I still don't know that I am sold on DelPo being able to win a hard fought three set match, but he has to get one first for it to be a problem. Verdasco is difficult to fade when he hasn't lost at this tournament.

[beefcake]

Almagro!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice hit buddy. God it's hard to ignore the money on Del Potro.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP SAN JOSE: VERDASCO +150
I'm not following the money train on Del Potro, I'm going with my gut which tells me that if Verdasco maintains his current level, we'll really find out what type of form Del Potro is in tonight. Both guys have been serving extremely well this week with Verdasco not broken and I think DelPo broken once. I'm still uncertain of Del Potro's form personally because despite some solid play, his opponents this week have been poor. Lacko played one decent set and tested DelPo into a tie break that the Argentine eventually won. Hewitt was utterly useless yesterday with a faulty serve. Verdasco has already played with pressure here against Karlovic in two tight sets and to a lesser extent against Istomin yesterday. I THINK consistency will be the key tonight as both can be expected to hold their serves fairly well again. Verdasco is 8-0 on these courts in the past two San Jose Opens, while DelPo has shown some ability on this surface when he was healthy prior to the injury. I'll pay to find out if this version of Del Potro is anywhere near getting back to full strength, knowing Verdasco is playing with confidence and perhaps very little pressure tonight as Del Potro seems to be getting the pub.

[Glitch]

what a good match this verdasco/ delpo match. thoroughly entertaining.

[EaglesPhan36]

Vegas made a pretty good killing off this match with all the money that went on DelPo. Verdasco 6-4, 6-4. The gut is correct for once.

[Pew Pew]

<3 Verdasco. Next match... Soderling or Tsonga? Who you gots?

[EaglesPhan36]

Soderling

[GmCrazy]

Whats the best book to use for Tennis lines?

[Mikail]

Soderling

Are you taking Soderling over Tsonga? Or is that just your opinion. It seems like the right side but if Tsonga decides to play up to his ability he has a shot.

[Pew Pew]

Tsonga's 5-1 finals record and Soderling's poor finals record makes Tsonga very tempting, but can't hide the fact he's 0-3 against Soderling.

[EaglesPhan36]

Soderling has won his last two finals, including a title already this year. Third straight final here with a 1-1 record, he's the defending champ. This is on his racket to lose IMO. Tsonga hasn't been in a final since 2009, so I wouldn't read much into whatever perceived advantage you think he might have there ... he'll be the more nervous of the two.

[lasker]

any thoughts on Hantuchova-Errani? Hantuchova seems to be playing on a higher level than Errani in this tournament, but is too much juice?

[EaglesPhan36]

No real opinion on that one, haven't followed either player's progress much this week. Remember Shari saying that Zvonareva kind of melted down in the semifinal, Neither was in much form before this tournament so it's kind of a crapshoot. Do see Errani has won a set off her in their head-2-heads in three meetings. Maybe O 20.5 games? No action for me on either WTA. Generally been avoiding the ladies until they get a few tourneys in to gauge form. I thought this week would be tough since they had not played since the Aussie Open.

[lasker]

fair enough, thx.

[beefcake]

Hard to go against Verdasco today, as much as I have my man crush on Raonic..I still will play him small more so on blanket homer stupidity..

[EaglesPhan36]

I think it just depends if Raonic is nervous in his first final. If he plays without nerves, he'll make it a quality match because his serve will be about unbreakable on this surface and I'd expect a scoreline along the Verdasco-Karlovic match. If he's nervous then he could fall flat. Probably going to pass on anything today. Feel real good about hitting that Verdasco one last night and after I hit a flat spot in the middle of the week, I finished with a winning week so I'm not giving shit back today!

[koscheckbaby]

What do you think about JMDP over Isner tomorrow? Hate betting against the big servers, but JMDP is getting better and better(Can't fault him for losing to Verdasco) and he has a 2-0 H2H

[reformed]

hey EP thanks for the picks. any idea what your record in tennis is for 2011?

[EaglesPhan36]

Click on my spreadsheet. All tennis wagers kept there. Think I am 48 or 49%, but up positive units. I'd be careful on Del Potro. He's traveling and coming back on short rest.

[757sFinest]

Raonic looked good but how about verdasco blowing the tiebreak? Wow

[EaglesPhan36]

TOTALS TRACKER: 2-0 [+2.20]

Remember the idea I am tracking here is for totals only, to go opposite of where the chalk is on the totals when the chalk goes to -135 or higher. As this is in the early stages of tracking, again, I would advise you not to blindly tail it if you don't like a certain pick.

BACSINSZKY-BENESOVA OVER 21 [+110]
ZHANG-SHVEDOVA OVER 21.5 [+105]
DULGHERU-BALTACHA OVER 21.5 [+110]
SEVASTOVA-RODIONOVA OVER 20.5 [+105]
CIRSTEA-HARRISON OVER 18.5 [+115]

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP BUENOS AIRES: RAMIREZ-HILDAGO +4 [+105]
Hidalgo is up against Montanes in the 1st round of the Buenos Aires clay tournament. Montanes expectedly perhaps was rough in his first clay match of the season last week in Costa do Sauipe. However, in all his 2011 season has not been very solid. Montanes is just 1-3. Ramirez-Hidalgo meanwhile has shown very competitive on dirt in his first matches of 2011. He lost a tight three set battle to Mello in Santiago and last week won a match before losing in two competitive sets to Dolgopolov, 7-5, 6-4. Hidalgo has been a competent player on dirt albeit it most of it recently has come on the Challenger level. Still, with Montanes not in-form yet, I THINK there is a chance that Ramirez-Hidalgo can play compeititively here and cover this spread.

[Brian891]

Is -290 too high for stakhovsky ep? Was curious if he or chela or robredo will make it into one of your parlays today.

[EaglesPhan36]

He should probably win because Marchenko has been pretty crappy so far, but the price isn't very great. Definitely only useful perhaps in a parlay. I'm not touching that one though.

[Tsonga]

i'm thinking Verdasco will probably get his revenge in Memphis over Raonic.

[beefcake]

Taking a shot with the ultimate dirtballer in gil today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Totals tracking changed. Removed the last three that were up for this morning as the lines have moved out of the range, added one. So far, 2-1 today with one pending.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP MARSEILLE: TURSUNOV -114
Tursunov draws the promising Bulgarian Dimitrov today in what should be a pretty good match. Tursunov played very well last week in Rotterdam, especially against Berdych in taking him to a 3rd set last week when Berdych was serving lights out. That followed up a Challenger title on an outdoor hard surface for Tursunov as he looks to turn around what was an injury-plagued 2010. On this indoor surface, both men have had success. Dimitrov made a Challenger final on this surface last year and beat Llodra in that tournament. He showed well enough against Tsonga last week in losing in Rotterdam, 6-4, 6-4. Dimitrov made the main draw in Melbourne as well, winning a match before bowing out to Wawrinka. Lots of folks are going to be keen to point out Dimitrov beat Tursunov last September in an outdoor Challenger. Different surface and different point in time as I THINK Tursunov is now fully healthy and confident. Dimitrov is a talent and he's going to be a factor on-tour at some point, but right now I'm waiting for him to prove his consistency on the ATP level. Right now, I THINK Tursunov is playing just a notch better, but I won't be surprised if Dimitrov steps up.

[EaglesPhan36]

Fading the heavy chalk on totals again proves profitable this morning. 3-1 on the 1st picks with one to go this afternoon in Memphis. Will continue to track the best I can. What I will start doing is listing the ones that fit the criteria the night before if the matches are overnight - like Dubai, but will wait for matches like Memphis or ones in the morning where lines can change. In this theory, I like to see the lines closer to start time to see where the money is going.