Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
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I didn't even realise you were doing this until I saw beefy mention it either today or yesterday. How long have you been tracking this for? I'm fascinated by this - you know how badly I suck at totals and how much I tend to ignore line movement but maybe this will finally be a way for me to beat the damn books on these friggin things!
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I just started "tracking" it as far as record keeping late last week. There were two plays I think that day that both hit. This is a theory I have been following since last year though, but I did not have concrete numbers to back up my belief about this theory. I just recall betting against the heavy chalk and it seemed like it definitely was hitting at a solid clip - maybe 60% or better. So I wanted to see if this was a fruitful endeavor or not by tracking it for a month or so.
The one that actually got be thinking of starting this up was the ridiculous price I saw when Karlovic played Sweeting last week in San Jose. O-U I think was 23 or 24 [cannot remember] but the price on the OVER was -156! Karlovic won 6-4, 6-4.
My belief on this is that the higher the chalk, the better the play so the ones that get out to -140 or more are the ones that seemed to hit pretty frequently. -135 ones I will watch closely to see if they hold up better than 50-50 or not.Comment -
It will be interesting so see if this proves fruitful over the long haul. I've noticed you point this theory out in the past and I think it's a good idea to track it and see how the numbers crunch. Good luck on Tursonov. I like your write up and I agree, Tursonov looks like the side with the slight advantage. To play devils advocate though this one could go either way. Then again don't they all? LOL Anyway I might make a small play on Tursonov just for the action.Originally posted by EaglesPhan36Comment -
Yeah honestly if Tursunov hadn't played like he did against Berdych, I might think of going on Dimitrov - but that was a good performance and form wise, I think he has an edge right now. Should be a good one though. Being a Dimitrov fan of sorts, if I do lose money, he's one I wouldn't feel bad losing too.Comment -
ATP MEMPHIS: ANDERSON -167
The Big South African draws Kendrick who made it through qualis. This is one of those instances where Anderson needs to win, if he's going to be a consistent winner on tour. He's in good form having won the Johannesburg tournament on an outdoor court and has had appropriate rest. Kendrick meanwhile played in San Jose last week and then made the quick turnaround to qualis here. Kendrick has lost all five of his main draw matches in Memphis in his career. Anderson lost here to Stepanek in the opening round last year after making the main draw by getting through qualifying. Anderson's game should be suited to an indoor surface all he's lacked at this point is the experience, I THINK. Kendrick has a serve that will allow him to stick with Anderson, but in general it's not as consistent as Anderson's. As long as Anderson gets in his 1st serve with consistency and pop, I THINK he wins this one.
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Thoughts on Simon/Daveydenko tomorrow? I would think Simon takes this one in 2.Comment -
Some info floating around that Simon has some sort of neck issue from last week. I won't be touching this match personally.Comment -
like Anderson to today parleyed him with L Mayer good luck today EP keep killing it bro!
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Well Hidalgo shit the bed nicely. Got rolled in the 1st set 6-1, but was in position to go up 4-2 in the 2nd and at least give the handicap a shot in the 3rd maybe. Instead, broken and now Montanes about to go up 4-3.Comment -
Bed shit all around. Looks like I'll be starting the week in a nice sized hole. Yay!Comment -
Fukking gil, you piece of monkey spunk..win the first and then shit the bed..
Maximo is always a tough out ..Wonder if playing him vs Robredo has any value..Comment -
I'm not doing any more today. 0-3 with two losses in 3rd set tie breaks is enough fun for me.
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nice call on Tursunov. I tailed you on that... a bit nerve-wracking, but a win is a win
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Well make that 1-2. Tursunov came through. That was one tight, tense match. Good showing for Dimitrov.Comment -
That match wen't exactly how I thought it'd be.Originally posted by EaglesPhan36 Regardless, It's a winner. Good call.
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I think if they replayed that match ten times, you'd have ten different outcomes! Dimitrov fell behind early in the 1st set tie break, but he fought back to win it. Tursunov held him off in the 2nd with a late break and then Tursunov I think fell behind in the 3rd set tie break, but fought back.Comment -
ATP BUENOS AIRES: GONZALEZ-ROBREDO OVER 21.5 [-110]
Gutty McGut Gut play here. Robredo demolished El Maximo in Santiago just a few weeks ago, so he should do the same, si? No. Maximo is at home here and being in the friendly confines of Argentina, I THINK he'll put on a better show against the Spaniard today. Robredo hasn't made life easy for himself on clay this year with three set matches in five of his seven matches on the surface. His serve was a bit shaky in Brazil last week, but not so against Maximo in their 1st meeting this year. Smell the Buenos Aires?
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Going based on your friendly confines theory, do u think chela cruises today? know hes -400, parlayed him with stakhovsky and lookin for an opinion on if i got a shot or should hedge. Thanks for answering my questions EP. Gotta be a pain in the ass to have so many posters buggin you. u guys on this forum have helped my tennis knowledge so much its ridiculous.Comment -
Chela is the better talent, but playing his third straight tournament concerns me a little bit although his last two matches weren't exactly taxing time-wise. The plus you have is that he only lost in the 1st round once on clay last year. I'd probably let it ride it doesn't look like the price drifted any to indicate anything too fishy ahead of time and Machado is really a Challenger level player for the most part.Comment -
thanks as usual!Comment -
Maximo bones it. Couldnt hold to a tie break in the 1st and now broken in the 3rd. Blah.Comment -
I know you like your totals EP, what do you think about Peng/BMS tomorrow?
Of Pengs matches this year (17), 6 of them she´s won after losing the first set. She´s won another couple that have gone the distance and every one of her losses has been in 3. I like overs for this, although BMS could be carrying a slight injury.. whaddya reckon?Comment -
talk about bad luck. chela opens with a break, now down 5-4. he sucks. thought hed come out stronger bein at home. ugh.Comment -
damn. lost first set. f*ck u chela. stay in argentina ya old loser. oh well. win some lose some.Comment -
Typical Chela. Won in 3.
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WTA DOHA: GROTH -125
Groth draws Cibulkova in a 1st round encounter in Doha. Groth has really got herself going early in 2011 with the Hobart Title and a big Fed Cup win over Schiavone. She also showed well against Wickmayer even in losing in the Australian Open which unfortunately for her came on the heels of her long week at Hobart. Cibulkova has been steady to start the season, but not spectacular. Kind of her m.o. so far. She also has to switch back from an indoor surface to the tricky outdoor elements in Doha. Cibulkova got her surprise win over Wozniacki early, but from what I see it is the players who possess a bit of power who can trouble her on this outdoor surface as seen in losses to Kvitova, Kleybanova and Kanepi. Groth at her best can produce that pop. The Australian could be one of the big risers in the women's game this season. She had a solid 2010 and began to produce consistently on the WTA level. She started that same way in 2011 and needs to pick up wins like this if she's going to continue her climb.
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with you on this play. glOriginally posted by EaglesPhan36Comment -
TOTALS TRACKER: 5-2 [+3.45]
Will post the ones that are later on Tuesday tomorrow morning when lines move more. Here's Doha.
DOKIC-PENNETTA OVER 19.5 [+110]
VINCI-VESNINA OVER 21.5 [+115]
BARROIS-ZHENG OVER 21.5 [+105]
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ATP MARSEILLES: SCHOOREL +101
The lanky lefty from the Netherlands has worked his way through qualis and into the main draw in France. His work in qualis has been impressive with wins over two home-standing Frenchies and another decent player in Martin. I give him the edge because of this court time and his work against Troicki last week in Rotterdam. The youngster has a big serve that works well on this surface, while Kamke lacks the big weaponry. Kamke is a solid player, but he hasn't played in a few weeks so Schoorel has the chance to jump on him early and use that big serve to dominate the service games. Figures to be a tight match and the Dutch player has already shown that he has a good nerve in tie breaks this year.
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Tailing you on the Dokic over - BOL!Comment -
GL EP. Groth seems like a solid bet. Will be keeping an eye on your totals theory mate. Would be great if it hits at a decent clip. All the best mate.Comment -
No love on the Dokic, but Peng/BMS looks headed to a third set
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Wow. Schoorel got completely destroyed. Great start to the day.
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TOTAL TRACKER
DUQUE MARINO-HAN OVER 21.5 [+125]
GALLOVITS-BRATCHIKOVA OVER 20.5 [+110]
MARTIC-ONDRASKOVA OVER 21 [+105]
That's it for now. We'll see how the rest go.
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2.15.11 DEUCE: KARLOVIC + DODIG [+107]
Karlovic draws the gritty Russell to open Memphis. Russell is one of those pesky types who isn't particularly good at any one thing, but fighting until the end. He'll use his athleticism to try and extend points, but against the big serve of Karlovic that may not help much. Ivo was solid last week in San Jose, but was unfortunate to draw Verdasco in the 2nd round where he lost 7-5, 7-5. What was impressive was that he beat Raonic in an exhibition match on Raonic's unexpected "off" day after he got a walkover into the semifinals. This is a simple formula. If Karlovic serves to his capability, Russell has little to trouble him and Karlovic should come through in a couple tight sets. Pair with Dodig. Dodig draws the veteran Schuettler who is off to a miserable start this season at 0-4, losing in the 1st round of four tournaments. Dodig of course had the dream run to a title in Zagreb and now looks to build on that success. His big serve is suited to this court, it's a matter of consistency now. Dodig seemingly has found his best matches on this surface in recent times now with two titles in his last two indoor tournaments, one on the Challenger level. Schuettler is well below .500 in his last 50 matches on this surface at 18-32 and lost to Dodig at the Challenger he won last year in three sets. As long as Dodig can fire early with his serve and keeps the errors down, Schuettler doesn't have a lot it would appear to hurt him over the course of the match.
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