EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 10:19 AM

ATP MEMPHIS: GABASHVILI +305
This is my pot shot of the day. Gabashvili has been trash since last year's clay swing when he had a nice run at the French. On this surface, he's been bad. 5-10 in the past year and no results really that point to much. So why try? Fish's health for one. He has the thyroid issue which ultimately zapped him of energy in Melbourne and led to his exit. He wasn't fully ready to play in San Jose last week and withdrew, focusing on Memphis this week. Does that necessarily mean he'll come in and play well? I'm not banking on it. He only played once on this surface in 2010 and lost to Mayer here in Memphis. Gabashvili has a big game where he can spring some results if he "goes for it." We saw that last summer at the US Open against Nadal when he made Nadal work extra hard in the 1st round, hitting a bunch of winners. I THINK that's his chance today. Simply go for it and play big. If Fish is healthy, we'll know early because he will win this match-up if he's anywhere close to 100%.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 10:21 AM

Groth

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

DOKIC-PENNETTA OVER 19.5 [+110]
VINCI-VESNINA OVER 21.5 [+115]
BARROIS-ZHENG OVER 21.5 [+105]

These went 1-2 [-0.95]

iceman8847 · 02-15-11, 10:51 AM

E/P 36 do you ever sleep. Thanks again I am 10 units in the last 3 days keep it up.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 11:02 AM

I do sleep some, but I start grinding early. One of the few perks of my shitty job is being able to post quite a bit.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 11:30 AM

Well Trashvili gonna make that pot shot a quick money burn. Already broken.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 12:04 PM

ATP BUENOS AIRES: ZEBALLOS -128
Been staring at this for a bit and ready to jump as the price has drifted down a little. I'm not reading too much into the line movement except that people rate Andujar a shot at decent odds, which given his clay pedigree of course he does have. Zeballos I thought was impressive in Santiago, beating Nalbandian and narrowly losing to Starace in a third set tie break. Andujar knocked off Robredo in Brazil last week for a nice scalp, but was crushed by Mello right after. Zeballos took a wildcard entry to play in this "home" tournament, so I'd expect a solid effort for his homeys. The thing I like most about Zeballos is his ability to hit big serves and hold at a high percentage whereas Andujar can be a flake on-serve. Andujar seems a little hit or miss right now with wins over guys you'd expect him to beat who aren't real clay court types. Zeballos isn't your typical Argentinian dirt baller, but he's shown he can win on this surface and I THINK he can do it today if he serves well.

WIZARDOFBEANTOWN · 02-15-11, 12:56 PM

Me2 good luck ep do you think mello can take down blake?

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 01:01 PM

There will be people who auto fade Blake or jump on Mello because he played well last week on clay, but this is by far his worst surface. 5-14. I'd never pay that price on Blake outside of a parlay, but Blake on this surface should win. Mello also typically plays well in his home country but not so much abroad.

WIZARDOFBEANTOWN · 02-15-11, 01:04 PM

Thanks

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 02:19 PM

Now wishing I would have stuck with my original Karlovic-Stepanek parlay. Dodig is playing like a clown today. About to lose the 1st set to Schuettler, that is a sad statement.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

DUQUE MARINO-HAN OVER 21.5 [+125]
GALLOVITS-BRATCHIKOVA OVER 20.5 [+110]
MARTIC-ONDRASKOVA OVER 21 [+105]

2-1 [+1.35]. For the day 3-3 [+0.40].

Waiting to see if any more fall in line, the Acasuso-Dolgopolov line has been close, so I am waiting to see if it moves any more.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 03:10 PM

ATP MEMPHIS: PRZYSIEZNY -119
Another one I had my eye on and although I missed taking Pryzsiezny as a a dog, the money is heavily on the Pole now turning him into a solid favorite. This is one where I will follow the money train because it's not a major match-up, so the money may know something here. Dabul's first two matches on an indoor hard court came last week in San Jose where he took a set off Hewitt before going down to defeat. Pryzsiezny might be a curious choice since his 2011 is off to a slow start also, but he has plenty of experience on this indoor surface on the Challenger level where both these guys mostly spend their time. He made a Challenger final on the surface last November and won a title on the surface in a Challenger last February. The Pole can surprise with his serve when he's right, so look for that as a sign early. He's definitely got enough game to win, consistency will be a key. Let's see if the money is right today.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 03:59 PM

Alright Dodig got his shit together. Now Dr.Ivo needs to perform surgery.

beefcake · 02-15-11, 04:45 PM

Ace surgery coming up!

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 04:53 PM

Right now, looking like the money dupe me on the Pole. Down 7-5 in the 1st set.

Just goes to show following the money doesn't mean dick.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 05:21 PM

TOTALS TRACKER: 8-5 [+3.85]

One more for the evening that falls into the criteria.

ACASUSO-DOLGOPOLOV OVER 21 [+105]

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 06:26 PM

Well this day is turning to shit. How the hell do you lose a set to Michael Russell 6-1? What a putz.

beefcake · 02-15-11, 06:58 PM

Just get to a breaker Ivo,we will be fine then..

beefcake · 02-15-11, 07:03 PM

Dr fukkwad!!!!

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 07:54 PM

I've bet on that fukk when he's gotten bounced, but by Michael F-ing Russell? Sham. Wish I would have followed my instincts for tonight. Was going to take Acasuso on the handicap. Had a feeling Dolgo might suffer some burnout and struggle tonight. F me.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 08:40 PM

I think Karlovic is going to go on my blacklist. Not only did he fukk my parlay, but I was so hesitant to pull the trigger I missed taking Acasuso because of the parlay loss. F-ing fukk. I think Istomin can beat Querrey tonight, but if I bet it - it'll lose, if I don't bet it, it'll win.

Brian891 · 02-15-11, 08:59 PM

What is roddick's problem? how is he losing to some shitball on american soil? if he doesnt care about tennis anymore he should do right by everyone, retire, and go bang brooklyn. but to play like this against some schmo? killin my parlay. i thought he was the one sure lock!

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 09:56 PM

Berankis isn't a shitball Brian. He's a quality young player who you're going to hear from this year IMO. You gotta stick it out in a match. One set does not a match make.

Brian891 · 02-15-11, 11:01 PM

sorry for gunkin up your thread with my ill advised and too soon rants EP. But now i wonder if i should do it every time my wager loses a first set.

tennis ia a new bird for me. i will get it under control. Sorry about that. I have learned the hard way after makin an ass of myself, twice, the lesson u are tryin to impart to me.

Gee · 02-15-11, 11:44 PM

Man, Berankis is not a hack. If anyone, Roddick is the hack. I reckon Berankis may well achieve more in his career than Roddick has.

I can't believe he blew the handicap though.

EP: i'm being lazy and don't have time to go through your whole thread, but I take it you are on a hot run now? It seems every time I come in here to check, you are telling everyone to fade you!!!

EaglesPhan36 · 02-15-11, 11:52 PM

No, I'm on a meh run to start the week. 4-7 or something like that.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-16-11, 12:19 AM

2.16.11

WTA DUBAI: PETKOVIC +110
Tasty treat with Petkovic and Kanepi in Doha. Petkovic has been in solid form on this surface in 2011 at 9-2. Kanepi showed no signs of hamstring injury that was reported in Paris when she beat a sloppy Vesnina. Kanepi had a good run in the US Open & Tokyo, but this surface is still not her best. Petkovic will need to be better, she was sloppy on-serve in beating Kerber [saved 9 of 15 breaks] but showed great poise and resolve in rallying from 0-3 in the 3rd set. I THINK I like what I've seen of this German lately.

WTA MEMPHIS: MARINO -130
Marino is up against Cirstea. Marino has been outstanding on this indoor surface although most of it has come on the ITF level. Still, she looks comfortable and has won ten straight now on this surface and 14 of her last 17. Cirstea meanwhile does not have a great serve that makes her vulnerable on this surface. Beating a 16-year old wildcard in the 1st round doesn't show much of what to expect from her today. Marino has shown some chops this year all-around and has a serve that can hold on this surface. If she brings her serve, she should win.

TOTALS TRACKER: 8-6 [+2.85]

PEER-DULGHERU OVER 19 [+115]
KUZNETSOVA-PIRONKOVA UNDER 19 [+110]
PENNETTA-ZAKOPALOVA OVER 20 [+105]
KLEYBANOVA-GROTH OVER 21.5 [+105]

Will add more for the later Wednesday matches tomorrow to the totals tracker.

lasker · 02-16-11, 01:22 AM

With you on Marino, GL

DigBick86 · 02-16-11, 06:56 AM

kANEPI GOT that injuri against Cibulkova in the first set but still beat her in the third very impressing victory she have so heavy forehand and backhand and the serve isent a joke when its klicking

EaglesPhan36 · 02-16-11, 09:11 AM

TOTALS TRACKER

Malisse-Serra OVER 22 [+105]
Hewitt-Lu OVER 22 [+108]

Gaskan · 02-16-11, 09:31 AM

Any reconsidering on the Simon/Davydenko match? Haven't seen anything on Simon's health.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-16-11, 09:42 AM

I think it's a poor match to bet on. Davydenko in shit form. Simon in questionable health maybe. Why bother?

757sFinest · 02-16-11, 09:56 AM

Would have to agree with that. I am leaving it alone as well.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-16-11, 10:07 AM

Petkovic with early breaks in both sets and she fails to hold them right away.