JCF gets booted. I wouldn't be surprised if he took off till Roland Garros. He wasn't all that sharp in his 1st round match and then really had too many ups and downs today. He paced himself pretty well in March & April, but February may have worn him out. Interested to see the price on Tsonga-de Bakker for tomorrow.
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Lindahl out to +120. That's a lot of action on a Challenger match. Dabul now -160. I know he had a good run early this season and won a couple at Indian Wells, but he hasn't played much of late and I like this Lindahl kid. Gonna take the plus money still and scratch my balls.Comment -
Well Soderling wiped Lopez off the map, so the OVER had no chance. Split the Challenger dogs. Lindahl lost in the 3rd 7-5, while Ram won in the 3rd. Meh. About even altogether on the day. I gotta start keeping these parlays back to two players and that's all. Those seem to hit much more frequently. Tomorrow, Soderling-Ferrer would seem to fit that bill. Bellucci is a good youngster, but he had struggled to beat the better dirt ballers consistently. He doesn't seem to have found a consistent groove yet this season. He had the one win in Chile, but has been so-so since. Ferrer has been solid on clay except when Nadal crushed him. Gonna double check everything, but that's the one play for sure I am going with. Probably be totals otherwise because it's high chalk favorites again tomorrow and I'm not certain the big dogs are worth it.Comment -
Agree ! Soderling and ferrer WONT lose today. 100% sure
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Good luck eaglesphan. I'm a fan of your hard work and dedication to what you do.Comment -
Totals ...
O/U Verdasco-Gulbis at 22: OVER. Gulbis is playing some solid tennis right now. So is Verdasco, but his serve has been more inconsistent than Gulbis. If Gulbis holds his serve again, this is at worst two tight sets and potentially, a 3 setter.
O/U Soderling-Schwank at 20.5: This is a tough one. Schwank is not going to beat Soderling, nor do I think he is going to take a set. Soderling's serve has been solid here. Schwank's has been good, but it's not over powering. I like the fact that Schwank had two competitive sets against Soderling on a faster surface in Davis Cup play ... in looking at Schwank vs. better clay courters this season, he has kept one set close and then normally tailed off a 6-4 or 6-3 type set. I THINK at 20.5, the O/U is set low based on Soderling smashing Lopez yesterday. Probably should be around 22 or at least 21.5, think even in two sets Schwank may help sneak this in to an OVER, something like 7-5, 6-3.Comment -
O/U Tsonga-de Bakker at 22. Also side with the OVER here. de Bakker churned out aces against JCF and Tsonga if he gets his 1st serve in consistently is going to be hard to break. Seems prime for at least two tight sets and another that won't shock to go 3.Comment -
Need to add Gulbis to my list of players not to bother with even with totals. Thought he'd at least keep this match competitive.Comment -
Parlay hits, but the totals have been crap. I thought Soderling under, but talked myself out of it. Blah.Comment -
Outright odds to win Barcelona
Ferrer +235
Verdasco +360
Soderling +110
de Bakker +1168
Taking Soderling seems like a good opportunity to make money in the final. de Bakker has had a great run, but Soderling hasn't hardly given his opponents any chances to break him. That's a recipe for victory more often than not. As solid as de Bakker has been, he is still give out breakers [15 in the last 2 matches] and Soderling looks to be the guy who could cash in on them. I rate de Bakker's price as about correct considering the two players he would have to beat to win the title in Barcelona. Interesting note on Verdasco-Ferrer is that Verdasco actually leads 5-2 in their clay court meetings. Might make Verdasco at +360 better than the long shot it would appear to be.
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Im taking Ferrer to win it all. Also 2nite against Verdasco and IF Ferrer wins, then against Bekker or Soder. GL!Comment -
well its weird how ferrer is the favorite hearComment -
On Verdasco. Can't pass the odds up. Been on a nasty losing streak in tennis recently, so hopefully this will be my lucky day!Comment -
soderling will beat de bakker easily tonightComment -
I made a huge play on Nestor/Zimonjic and it cashed! Have a question for anyone that can answer. I am seeing some really odd score in doubles. For instance in Nestor/Zimonjic's match it has the score as 6-4 3-6 10-7. What is this? 10-7? It's almost like there is no 3rd set but just a tiebreak which makes no sense to me. Also, if it was a tiebreak it wouldn't be 10-7 since you just have to win by 2. I really don't understand this. Also, looking at the draw sheet with all the score it makes no sense. http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2010/425/mdd.pdf. On some matches it has different scores for the 2 teams on the same match. Very confusing.Comment -
Ferrer got smashed...lets go Soderling!Comment -
Don't forget that there is Fed Cup tennis today as well. I'm on Pennetta (won), Schiavone (winning) in parlay with Soderling and Alves. Later today we have Dementieva who is gonna beat the shit out of Mattek-Sands. Dementieva is currently like -700 but I figure that is good for parlaying with some baseball or basketball. GL!Comment -
You're correct on the doubles. They changed the rules a few years back to avoid long drawn out matches, so after they play two sets if it's 1-1, they go to the 10 point tie break. Well the two I had outlined worked out, Soderling vs. Verdasco in the final. Getting Verdasco at +360 was particularly value-rific, he's a +150 dog now in the final.Comment -
Verdasco just won. Soderling is good but just seems like he can't win a title.Comment -
verdasco with a chance to finally win a title? prob wont beat soderling thoughComment -
Things I THINK I Know ... Monday, April 26th
I THINK the most intriguing match in Round 1 in Rome for me is Andreev and Monaco. Yes, Andreev drives me nuts and he's one of those guys that is close to being on my no-fly list. Buuuut, this might be a spot for Andreev. Monaco's last two losses on clay are particularly troubling as they were to Gimeno-Traver & Berrer. Normally, those are guys Monaco should mop up with. Monaco played awfully well here last year, but that was then ... the price certainly reflects that perhaps something is up with Monaco's health as he is just a -135 favorite. At +115, I THINK Andreev [Jesus help me] is a decent play here.
I THINK sticking to a pair on parlays to make them easier, I like Ljubicic who is adequate on this surface, but not someone you'd normally think about on clay. He draws Mathieu here and Mathieu does not seem ready to step up at any time just yet. He's played two clay court matches since his return, losing to Oscar Hernandez in straights and to Jurgen Melzer in straights last week, rather embarassingly at 6-3, 6-2. If Ljubicic can reacclimate himself quickly enough to dirt, I expect he can carry through. I THINK I like him paired with Chela. Chela takes on GGL, someone whom he has beaten in 4 of 5 career meetings. Chela made it thru qualis here easily and has been in good form on clay, losing only to superior dirt ballers this season. GGL has some skills on dirt, but Chela has a greater familiarity with this tournament and should carry through at a relatively low price. Pairing them together works to a little better than a +100 payout now.
Not big on any O/Us tomorrow. GGL-Chela over 21.5 is the closest thing to something I THINK I like. Good luck in Rome, let's get some money.
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what up Dos Eques,
Took a little nap then woke up to try and cap some of these tennis games.
What do you think of this parlay that pays a little less than +100.
Juan Carlos Ferrero* -620 vs Santiago Giraldo
Potito Starace* -155
JCF is a no brainer and Starace I believe has a good shot to win here in straight sets. He's been playing well and he is on his home turf, where guys seem to be playing with pride lately. He's probably the best Italian in this tourny so I don't really see him getting knocked out here.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Boy I want to take Andreev, but he's Russian...GL bro.Comment -
JCF looks like he's going to lose. If you look up at the top of this page, I posted it after he lost in Barcelona last week ... I think he's worn out or maybe carrying an injury. A guy like JCF does not lose sets 6-0 to Giraldo.Comment -
Looks like I sweet talked myself into a losing parlay. Was going with Ljubicic-Kohlschreiber, but switched to Chela instead and he's getting rolled.
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Typical Andreev. Idiot gets a late break to go up 6-5 and serve the set out and gets broken back. Now in a tie break that I'm sure he'll lose. Some day I'll learn.
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JCF is an asshole, i just added him in a parlay just to make some extra bucks and he friggin gets steam rolled! WTF!!!Comment -
wow I almost put JFC in that Parlay with Starace and ended up taking Berdych with Starace instead
Sorry to JFC backers, he let you downCause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Things I THINK I Know ... Tuesday, April 27th
I THINK as I look around, I like a lot of OVERs on Tuesday. Start with Bellucci & Mayer at 22. If both are serving well, this one has the makings of a tight 2 setter or a potential 3 setter. I THINK the O/U with Federer & Gulbis at 21.5 also lends itself to a potential OVER. If Gulbis serves well, this one seems very likely. In fact, I THINK this is my favorite bet on Tuesday.
I THINK in sticking with the two selection parlay, I THINK I dig Wawrinka + Bellucci for a payoff of almost +120. Wawrinka has a tough competitor in Melzer, but WaWa is better on this surface against similar or below average players. Melzer may push him to 3, but I THINK the Swiss advances. Bellucci is up against Leonardo Mayer. Mayer is capable here too and has the added plus of playing qualis, but was not that impressive against Golubev in his last match. Bellucci is fresh off a quarterfinal appearance in Barcelona. His main sticking point has been consistency, but he is the better player on dirt. If he brings his A game, the Brazilian I THINK advances.
I THINK Hansecu is once again in that area where I feel real comfortable taking him. He's +150 against dirt rat Juan Monaco. Monaco was less than impressive against Andreev in the 1st round. Hanescu went three sets with Berrer, but was really in control of the two sets he won and had his serve churning out aces. If he is anywhere close to that level against Monaco, I THINK I like the Romanian's chances.
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Once again, Hansecu in that low dog price between +125 & +150 cashes.Comment -
Just had "Hanescu to win at least 1 set", as I couldn't pull the trigger to take him on ML. Anyway, well done sir.
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Think it's raining in Rome. Only one match in-progress.Comment -
Got the OVER cashed on the Federer-Gulbis match. Federer trying to rally late after Gulbis choked on serve to win.Comment
