I dont think that Isner can beat gasquet .. I was shocked yesterday watching the Isner/Quanna match .. Both players was SOO bad, and Isner cant play tennis, he can SERVE tennis ! Gasquet for me ..
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good luckComment -
Isner wins 6-3 in the 3rd set. I think people are under rating what Big John can do on clay. He's not going to beat Nadal or anything, but he's proven that he can beat mediocre suckers like Gasquet and stick with someone as good as Djokovic. You have to especially keep him in mind because of his serve which can still dominate a match on clay - especially if the surface plays a little quicker than other clay surfaces like this one in Belgrade apparently does.
No play on O/U for me with Cilic-Almagro set at 23. That pretty has to be a 3 set match to get a win there. I will however partake in Almagro at +110. I am shocked quite frankly that all the money is going on Cilic. Cilic as a dog in this spot would maybe be worth it, but there's not a lot to firmly like about him - also keep in mind his last four losses on clay, all to Spaniards! Almagro still isn't in the best of form either on clay, but he's got experience and I THINK a better shot to win at plus money.
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Good luck EP
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Another thing I THINK I might like for this afternoon is Krajinovic +6.5 against Djokovic. Reading about Djokovic, he apparently is battling some allergy problems and is reporting to be a bit sluggish in Belgrade this week. That could account for his subpar win against Fognini: 6-4, 6-4 in which he won just 55% of the points off his 1st serve. Krajinovic showed a good nerve against a clay courter in Zeballos yesterday and I THINK if he's not overwhelmed by playing his fellow countryman from Serbia here, he might be at worst good enough to keep a 2 set match to 6-3, 6-3 and pull a win on the handicap. Interesting to note that Krajinovic lists guys like Federer, Roddick & Sampras as his idols from what I have read ... so perhaps he has no love lost for Djokovic.
Also think if you need someone to throw in a parlay, Sweeting on the Challenger Level has another favorable match-up today.
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Dam federer blows chunks..He has allowed clement to get 5 games of him so far?Comment -
Kohlschreiber sucked today, blew the parlay there. Going with Gil in the Portugese duel today. Money went back on him to about the opening price. Will be interesting.Comment -
Djokovic boned me. F*cker retires after a set. Anyone who took the young Serb on the ML made out like a bandit. As is with the handicap, I believe that's a no action grade because just one set was complete. Reports on his allergy problems were obviously highly accurate. Gil wins, so all in all, an okay day.Comment -
keep your eye on that young serb this tourney
Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
He might beat Querrey, but Isner or Wawrinka should win this tournament IMO. My money would be on Wawrinka.Comment -
Things I THINK I Know ... Saturday, May 8th
I THINK when starting to work on a parlay for today [gulp], I THINK Youzhny is a solid choice. The Russian although a substantial favorite here [-285] and that not being something you'd normal want to chance, is at home in this tournament. He's made the final in his last two trips here, winning in 2007 & losing in 2009. He's rolled in three wins here with a steady serve. No one expected Petzschner to be here as he KO'ed Berdych in a 3 setter - coming back to win two straight after dropping the opener 6-1. His serve has been a steady weapon this week, but clay remains probably his worst surface. Just look back to late April when he lost to Phau at a CHALLENGER clay tournament. Outside of winning a Challenger clay tournament in 2007, this is his best result on clay. There's a reason for that. The other half for me here is Stanislas Wawrinka. He won a war with Victor Troicki yesterday, winning in a third set tie break. I think it was just a high quality match for both and Wawrinka winning two sets in tie breaks should help him against Isner who often gets to tie breaks because of his ability to hold serve. Wawrinka has beaten some booming servers on dirt already in 2010 like Gulbis and Berdych. Isner is a different class as far as serve, but Wawrinka also has a notch on his belt of beating Isner on hard courts last fall. Isner is no push over, even on this surface, but in the Gasquet match you can see how important the serve is to him. When it failed in the opening set, Gasquet crushed him 6-2. With Wawrinka being a very steady server and adept at saving break opportunities [7/7 this week], any problems for Isner on serve will likely result, I THINK in the Swiss moving on here. You can pair Youzhny & Wawrinka up for about -125 at their current prices. Won't be easy for either, but I THINK they both possess solid chances to win.
Wanted to get that in early after looking at Pinnacle prices. Estoril may be a wash tomorrow. Saw an 80% chance of rain. I didn't like anything there too much with Federer-Montanes or Gil-Garcia-Lopez. Challenger level tomorrow, not sure what the price will be but Ilhan over Alves is a nice opportunity. Young Turk beat him at this Challenger last year & Alves is more of a clay court type. Might be good for a parlay with something, I THINK or straight up if the price is right.
Might stop in later tonight when more prices are out. Hopefully some early O/U numbers too!
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i like youzhny here too, he enjoys munich a lot. But that parlay just doesn't seem like a good risk to me. Isner and Petzschner are both live dogs in my opinion at +250, and about -125 for the 2 of them isn't worth the risk for me. imo
I mean the way Isner's serve is working he is gonna force a tiebreak at least and anything can happen there and wawrinka may be a bit fatigued from that marathon with troickiComment -
Jesus the serb kid was like +1300 at 5dimes
...Man they leave their ass out to dry sometimes with lines like that..
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Any props on whether there will be tiebreak in Isner/Waw might be a value playComment -
wow wawrinka cant hold twice at 5-6 incredibleComment -
might be an all american giants final outside US on clay
who woulda thunk itBaba-e-qaum ne farmaya, too chal me ayaComment -
when the last time that took place?Comment -
that is great to isner in a clay court final with the potential of querrey there as well.Comment -
i'm hoping for an isner/querrey final...i had the over on the petz/youzhny final and am hoping to have a good day for tennis.Comment -
they are such good friends and doubles partners.wonder if that would play into an over possibilty since they know each others game so well?Comment -
Well 5Dimes helped me avoid losing on Wawrinka. I was talking to their CR in the middle of the night asking them to post the line and they told me check back in an hour and maybe it would be up. Wasn't, so I took Youzhny and combined him with a hockey play later. One of the few times lack of a line has helped me. If Querrey wins, it will be the 3rd time that Isner-Querrey have played THIS YEAR after never playing head-2-head before. It would be their second final against each other, Querrey won in 3 in Memphis. Isner beat him in the 2nd round at Indian Wells.Comment -
Not sure if I will play anything on Sunday, but I THINK I like Youzhny - but it's a real toss-up. Querrey-Isner, I like Isner better on this surface but it's a toss-up too. I'd say take the OVER, but books likely will put it high like 24.5 or so I bet to keep people from pounding a low number. Going to be a huge day for either guy because I'd dare say whomever gets this clay court title won't see another one any time soon.Comment -
i liked querrey on this but i see isner is the dog, so i might as well skip thisComment -
if you wait might get the Q man as a dog,line is moving..Comment -
will play safarovaBaba-e-qaum ne farmaya, too chal me ayaComment -
jelena jankovic is a bitch!! she better work in a bordel than play tennis! she lost 7-5 7-5 while she was the favorite. im out of this f**cking tennis bettingComment -
Betting high chalk in WTA events is a good way to give yourself a coronary. I took Cilic-Youzhny to end in 3 sets at +130. Gonna take a small investment on Isner at +115.Comment -
Things I THINK I Know ... Monday, May 10th
The Madrid surface played fast last year and some of the big servers made it through in qualis already. I THINK in sticking with the idea that the surface hopefully plays a bit quicker than some other dirt, I look to Kevin Anderson at +180 against Melzer. Anderson dominated two qualifying matches here and nearly knocked off Almagro last week in Munich, losing a 3rd set tie break. Melzer is average on clay. He is 3-3 on dirt this season and is coming off a poor performance in Rome, getting smoked in straight sets by Wawrinka in under an hour. He hasn't played now in almost two weeks which could give Anderson another edge. Certainly worth a shot, I THINK. A secondary dog that I THINK has a legit shot is Dolgopolov against Seppi at +135. The Ukranian advanced through qualis here and the kid has clay court skills. He has had success on the Challenger level, winning two clay tourneys earlier this year and losing another final. Seppi is suited better to clay because the slower surface can help mask his weak serve and lack of a major offensive weapon. He's 3-3 on the surface in 2010 without a notable win. He pulled a couple wins at this event in 2009 against Schwank & Querrey. No doubt he will battle here, but he will also give the kid his chances to win. Dolgopolov showed a good nerve in winning two tie break sets against Fish in qualifying and that confidence could help him if the match is close. I THINK at the price, I dig his chances. Simply THINK a split of these two picks would do me fine with a profit of some sort.
O/U numbers for tomorrow ... I THINK Lopez-Kubot at 21.5 is a possible OVER. Lopez is not at his best on this surface, but his big serve could keep service games in favor of the server here. The key would be Kubot who proved that he can win on clay earlier in the season, but has levelled off somewhat. His serve is sometimes iffy, so it will need to be strong to get this done if the match goes just two sets. Still, I THINK it has a good shot ... could go three.
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i think you should at least go 2/3 on your picks today...good thinking.Comment -
I THINK on the Challenger Level, I'm willing to go with the young Aussie, Bernard Tomic today in Zagreb. He's just -110 against Yani who has not been good in his past 10 [2-8] with most of that on the Challenger Level. Tomic should be happy to get back onto a hard court surface after 3 forgettable clay court experiences as he tried to get onto the Australia Davis Cup squad. He has the game for this surface and I THINK the only reason his price is so low is because of his relative inexperience outside of his home country. No hostile crowd here as he plays an American in Croatia.Comment -
EP: You think Troicki has a shot today vs Almagro? I know it's in Spain, but Troicki has pulled some upsets like this AFAIK.
+210 is nice...Comment -
Not a fan of Troicki on clay. He plays well in the Serbian tourney because it's a home court type thing, but otherwise he's usually not a major threat on dirt. Almagro doesn't have a good track record in Madrid though, so who knows. Not a match that interests me much.
Got the split on the underdogs with Dolgopolov winning in straights, so the small profit is cool. Anderson was just too uneven against Melzer, but still took him to 3 sets.Comment -
EP: You got a scoreboard for this match anywhere? I can't find nothing on it (Tomic)Comment -
When it loads, look to the left and it has a bunch of tennis matches listed. Click on the Tomic one.
He got crushed 6-3 in the 1st set.
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