Originally posted by ji03
im on this one as well
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im on this one as well
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Gasquet rolls again: 6-0, 6-1. Don't know what the number was, but the under obviously would have hit. Cilic O/U is at 20.5. Think the OVER is a worthy play in my book. Kohlschreiber-Brands at 20 might be another potential OVER. Brands has had a lot of Challenger success on clay and battled decently on the ATP level. Kohlschreiber at his best probably beats him easily, but he's been pretty inconsistent this year.Comment -
Yeah I like that cilic overComment -
Cilic and Berrer played earlier this year with Cilic winning in three close sets, so I think the over looks pretty good.Comment -
Seppi is gonna bone my parlay. His serve is even more pathetic than usual today. Weeee!Comment -
Tide turning in the 2nd. Mayer is now the one with the WTA serve. Might get a 3rd set of wonderful breaks & Maalox moments after all.Comment -
that french bitch lost today too!Comment -
Seppi cloooose. Come on! Sheesh.Comment -
Seppi wins to complete the parlay. Not a great performance, but a win is a win. Looks like Munich is washed out for the rest of the day.Comment -
I THINK on the Challenger Level today, I'm sticking with the two person parlay formula and going with Taylor Dent & Ryan Sweeting. Costs you about -120 to make this one. Sweeting has made back-to-back QF appearances in hard court Challengers and draws Brit, Jamie Baker. Baker has struggled to win main draw matches on the Challenger level. Dent is a low price because his form in 2010 has been mostly forgettable. Still, he has a major experience advantage and faired well in Challengers last year while building his ranking back up. He'll either take care of his Australian opponent fairly easily or embarass himself.
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this rain delay is killing me. what a game but damn freaken Ancic lost!Comment -
Things I THINK I Know ... Wednesday, May 5th
I THINK if you don't like having money held up, you may want to steer clear of matches in Munich. More rain in the forecast. Doesn't look real promising for many matches to get in on Wednesday. No plays in Munich for me as a result - although I still like that Cilic-Berrer OVER at 20.5, but it could be another day.
I THINK if you're looking for O/U numbers that could be worthy - look to the Estoril event with Gimeno-Traver & Montanes. I THINK this one is probably going to be set to lean toward a 3 set match. If it's 21.5 or 22, I THINK I like the over. If it's 23, probably a pass as that would be difficult to do in a two setter if the 3 set match does not come to fruition. I THINK if the books expect a Federer whipping of Phau, you could find a nice number to pound for an OVER. Phau is super quick, so on the slow surface he could track down a lot of Federer shots and maybe win 4-6 games in a 2 set match. Really depends on the number and what the books expect of Federer. He should win this event with a simple draw - but does he give a crap? Querrey-Korolev could be a 3 setter in the making or two tight sets potentially. Both aren't great on this surface ... the key is Korolev holding serve. At times, he can be very good in that category, at others ... he can look like a WTA player. If you believe he can hold against the Samurai, the over, I THINK is your play.
I THINK I have Igor Andreev on my no-fly list. Ivo Karlovic is a mug on clay, but his big serve could give him a chance against Andreev at +130. The court in Belgrade seems to be suited a little bit to that as Dr.Ivo played decently here a year ago and whipped out 10 aces in Round 1. Plus money against the inconsistency of Andreev, I THINK is maybe the best dog I see on the board with a legit shot to win. THE OVER here also would be tasty at anything less than 23, I THINK. Probably won't see that number though before I go to sleep tonight, so I'd stick with Karlovic to win.
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EP you have that TI membership right? Can you get me the stats story of Dementieva and cibulkova matches? Ivanovic's better form is bothering me a little and also i wanna know how is cibulkova is serving.Baba-e-qaum ne farmaya, too chal me ayaComment -
good luck...Comment -
Cibulkova getting high percentage of 1st serves in so far: 75%, winning about 70% of those points thru 2 rounds. 2nd serve she won 60% in Round 1, only 38% in Round 2. She was only broken once on serve last round, 6 times in 1st round.Originally posted by tailmypicks
Dementieva is 4-0 vs. Ivanovic. Last meeting was May 2008 on clay. Dementieva is still a double fault machine, 7 in her 1st match in Rome. Ivanovic had great serve #s in her opener, they dropped off some in the 2nd round. Mostly she's been able to take advantage of her opponents so far who have had bad serving matches it looks like and she's done enough on her own serve to win.Comment -
Crappy day to this point. Even the rain forecast in Munich was off. Thanks weather.com. Although it saved me from losing another one.
Just gonna wait and see if my Challenger parlay that got rained out yesterday comes in today or not.Comment -
thanks EP i took Nika CibuBaba-e-qaum ne farmaya, too chal me ayaComment -
Well, there is a rain delay in Munich now so it is not that off.Comment -
dr ivo got whipped..Comment -
Still haven't found the perfect site for scores, but this one has a good variety of Challengers, ATP & WTA ... although still not all scores.
I swear someone could probably make a living off getting Challenger scores for degenerates like me.Comment -
EP, thoughts on Djokovic to win the Serbian Open?Comment -
Certainly has a favorable draw. Shouldn't break a sweat until the semis. He's better than Querrey or Andreev on the surface, so he should walk to the finals really. Really the only guy in current form who could trouble him would be Wawrinka and that would be in the final. Djokovic though has great lifetime numbers vs. him [10-2] and one of those losses was due to retirement. What's the price on this? If it's -200 or under, I'd say a good play because you could hedge in the final at a decent price for the opponent I would expect. In all seriousness, this tournament is for Djokovic to win in front of the home crowd and as long as he's a top 5 player he'll have a draw that puts him in the final every year he wants to play this.Comment -
Last night Djokovic was -170, and I agree he should walk to final, then u could hope Wawrinka gets clipped or hedge it out if Wawa makes it to the final.
Good insight as always, thanks for the response
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Wonder if Seppi is worth a shot vs Coke-fiend..?Comment -
I used Seppi in the 1st round for a parlay, but his serve is so weak - it's hard to back him even on clay where he can be more effective. He really strugggled to put away Leo Mayer who isn't really a clay court guy. Gasquet is always a nutcase, but his serve was solid in the opener and on clay he's only lost to really solid players like Verdasco & Berdych. This Serbian surface seems to play a little faster than some clay courts as I've noticed guys with good serves have gotten quite a few aces. Not totally sure at this point, but Gasquet might be part of a parlay tomorrow for me.Comment -
Things I THINK I Know ... Thursday, May 6th
Starting off with the parlay possibilities and I look no further than John Isner to start. Big John isn't ever going to be a clay court specialist, but his big serve on this Belgrade surface is a weapon. Isner hasn't had a whole lot of success on dirt, but his match-up here is a good one against a player with a similar style. Josselin Ouanna is a power server from France who also does not excel on the surface like Isner. Isner while not collecting but a single win on clay in 2010 has played solid clay courter tough, losing to Bellucci 7-6, 7-5. Taking Djokovic to 5 sets in Davis Cup play in hostile territory. Ouanna has seen the majority of his clay experience in Challengers & qualifiers. In his home country is where he experienced his only clay court success on the main stage ... in Belgrade, I THINK Isner will win a tight one. The 2nd leg of the parlay is where your balls must be coated with steel. Richard Gasquet is my choice here against Andreas Seppi. I THINK the Frenchman is worth a punch here because he has the weapons to outfight the weak serving Italian. Gasquet was clinical in his dissection of Rochus in Round 1. In looking at his clay problems in 2010, most have come against high class opposition like Verdasco, Berdych & Hanescu. Seppi is not in that class and if his serve remains just so-so, Gasquet should be able to work him over through the course of the match. Gasquet's formula for success is simple on dirt. Get the 1st serve in and win points. His 2nd serve can be worked over, so that would be the key to watch on Thursday. They've met twice with each winning once on clay. Both were quite some time ago, so I don't see them with much bearing on tomorrow's match. Jeebus help me, but I like Gasquet to win in the end, I THINK. The parlay costs you about -112.
No O/U numbers vailable right now. Matches I THINK I would look at: Gil & Giraldo potentially for an OVER. I expect the number would be around 22. Gil has beaten him twice and also gives you perhaps the best underdog shot to bark on Thursday at around +175 on his home turf. Nothing else really stands out without seeing the numbers first.
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I THINK I won't respect myself if I don't play Maria Kirilenko at +425 over Serena in Rome. Kirilenko has done some nice things this tournament and looking at Serena's history in this tournament, she has bowed out in the quarters or sooner in her last four trips to Rome. Serena's motivation in these non-Slams is always a question too. Kirilenko will need Serena's serve to be below average today though I THINK to have a shot. Always possible on clay. The O/U at 19.5 I THINK is also a possibility to go OVER as Kirilenko seems to battle through long matches on this surface.Comment -
I'm on Kirilenko as well nice value me thinks!Originally posted by EaglesPhan36Comment -
iTHINK Challenger parlay: Sela + Sweeting at -103. Sela is in his home country and has been on a white hot streak at the Challenger Level in April. Plays Ilhan, the young Turk, who has a wealth of talent but I THINK Sela gets the love from the crowd and the win. Ryan Sweeting has been pretty solid stateside on the Challenger level in the last few weeks. He draws Bobby Reynolds who seems to be continuing to just basically play for a paycheck. Sweeting in current form should have enough to outlast the veteran.Comment -
Isner made the 2nd leg of that parlay about a zillion times easier than Gasquet did with the first, but the parlay cashes nonetheless! Looks like Serena was ready to roll today, killing Kirilenko. Small loss there.
Going to stick with just playing Gil as the dog over Giraldo. Giraldo has gotten a lot of love from his Challenger success, but you have to look closer and see that was in his home country. Gil is the home stander here with a 2-0 record against Giraldo. He ranks a chance today at a good price.Comment -
Gil wins.
Challenger parlay shot to hell as Sela got rolled today against Ilhan. Like that kid quite a bit, but did not expect him to do what he did today.Comment -
Shocked Sela didn't break serve once in that match today.
Nice Gil pick, excellent observation about Giraldo and his success on the challenger tour. Doesn't always transferComment -
Things I THINK I Know ... Friday, May 7th
In starting off with the two person parlay, I look first to Kohlschreiber who battles Baghdatis. On this surface, Kohlschreiber is clearly a step above Baghdatis at this point. Kohlschreiber has put together a 6-2 mark on clay in the last three tournaments. His losses have come to Nadal & Ferrer, certainly nothing wrong with that. He won this tournament in 2007 and I THINK he could take a step closer toward another finals appearance here. Baghdatis simply has not played a lot on clay in the past three years with just 8 matches. His lone wins have come in this tournament, but neither came against someone in Kohlschreiber's class. The 2nd part of the formula I THINK is Stanislas Wawrinka. He's been a consistent player on dirt this Spring with a clay title in Casablanca and a 10-2 mark on dirt in 2010. Troicki may be the home standing player here, but again is clearly the lesser of the two men on court on this surface. He is 5-3 on clay this season, but he has yet to play anyone in the class of Wawrinka. Troicki has barely broken a sweat in two matches in Belgrade, but the Swiss will provide him with a stiff test. Troicki could keep it close if his serve is working, but I THINK in the end - Wawrinka is more consistent on the surface. This pairing goes for -136.
I THINK the dueling Portugese match between Gil & Machado is one to watch in Estoril. Gil has won 5 of his last 6 on dirt, while Machado has been red hot on dirt in 2010 - albeit with most of his matches on the Challenger level. Gil has had a little better serve this week and that could make the difference. If you're interested in this match, I THINK I'd suggest watching the money on this one. Gil opened as a -125 or so favorite with money going on Machado so far. Gil won the only head-2-head last April in two sets. Will be interesting to see if the money continues on Machado or comes back out on Gil.
As far as O/U numbers on Friday - none are out, but I would THINK Cilic-Almagro might be a decent shot for an OVER if set at 22 or less. Of course that means you have to trust Cilic will known how to serve again tomorrow. Gasquet-Isner is another one I might take a shot at for an OVER, but it's one of the first matches up so there's not likely going to be a number to judge it on. I'd think it'd be 22.5. Anything less would be a great OVER shot I THINK. The match itself is also intriguing. Gasquet struggled to get past Seppi yesterday and looked like he might choke in the 3rd set a few times. Isner cruised against Ouanna, but Ouanna is a non-factor on clay. If Isner cranks his serve up again, he might be your best shot at a dog barking at +150. Gasquet did surprisingly to me beat Isner last November on an indoor hardcourt, but Isner may have been worn down at that point. The key for both is the serve. Both have been good on 1st serves, but it's the 2nd serve that I THINK might make the difference in this one. The more they get in, the better their chances. Looking at Gasquet's losses on clay, his 2nd serve was horrible against both Verdasco & Berdych. Isner is going to club out aces on any surface and I actually think if he can maintain that throughout - he's an excellent shot even on dirt to win.
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I love Big John later,and Sam Q is a way better clay court player than the mad russian..Comment -
do u rather bet on men or women tennis players?Comment
