EP36's Tennis Talk

EaglesPhan36 · 04-20-10, 11:48 PM

Things I THINK I Know ... Wednesday, April 21st

Still waiting on the O/U numbers of the matches, but I THINK these are the ones I would like to see. Hanescu-Bellucci, if it's set at 21.5, I THINK I like the OVER. Hanescu is capable of going toe-to-toe with the young gun if he plays well. I THINK I'd also be willing to take the OVER between Gulbis-Chardy. Expecting that one to be 22.5 at least, if it's less, I THINK I'd pound it. Gulbis' serve was solid in his opener as was Chardy. Both though can flip flop from good to bad in 24 hours, so a 3 setter is possible. 22 would be a great # even with a two setter possibly providing the OVER. Both Ferrero & F.Gonzalez should win their matches with pretty routine beatings, I THINK. If they offer O/U #s at 18.5 or 19, definitely worth a look.

As far as sides, maybe a couple of underdog pops. Hanescu at +115. Alberto Martin at +150. Maybe Gimeno-Traver at +120.

Parlay I THINK can hit:

*Ferrer, Fernando Gonzalez & Verdasco at about -155. The caveat here is that both Ferrer & Verdasco have to shake off the post-Nadal beatings, but should do so here. Verdasco has the tougher test with Gasquet, but Gasquet played like a mook in his opener against Andreev and was lucky he played someone who was equally as poor as he was. This one IF the first two legs [Ferrer/Gonzalez] go down will also offer you a hedge opportunity if you like by taking Gasquet straight up in the late match with Verdasco.

crokkettt · 04-21-10, 12:53 AM

Hey EaglesPhan36, why don't you put gg Lopez into your favo parlay? I got him with the lakers.

He is in good shape and against gabashvili He should win the match.. Good luck

Goat Milk · 04-21-10, 03:26 AM

EP,

Gasquet is all about confidence though I think. Because he's a streaky player it's not like he needs more practice. He can be a top 6 player in the world when he is on his game. Verdasco may be a little shaken after that Nadal beat down. Verdasco can easily handle Gasquet here, but what do you think about the over 21.5? Or Gasquet +4? Verdasco has played consec games on clay though for a while now so he's in top form, but Gasquet has been rested and just won his first match against a pretty solid opponent though it wasn't a good match it was one of those grind it out matches, but I think this game could be the same.

If you think this ends in two sets, I might go Gas +4, but if you think it'll go 3 over obviously.

obie · 04-21-10, 06:30 AM

Hey Guys, do you know where I can see ATP Barcelona on livestream ?

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 07:33 AM

I don't trust Gasquet at all. I could see the OVER at 21.5 being worth a shot maybe. I just don't think he played well at all in the opener and I just look at that Berdych match in Monte Carlo as an example of what can happen to him on any given day as well.

Trying Martin today at +150 in addition to that parlay. Might add an O/U in a bit, but right now the ones I was looking at last night are not what I wanted them to be.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 07:45 AM

Also decided to go Bellucci at -120.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 08:09 AM

Scratch Belluci. Still would have gone that way, but missed the start time. Ferrer looking like shit early.

obie · 04-21-10, 08:20 AM

Where do you watch it Eagles ?

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 08:26 AM

ROJADIRECTA

http://www.rojadirecta.org/

They usually have the bigger tournaments.

Okay, so what I have today:

Ferrer-Gonzalez-Verdasco parlay
Martin +155 [price change]
JCF-Stakhovsky UNDER 18.5 at +110

Depending on how those last two go, I may play the Lopez-Istomin OVER at 21.5. That's it for me though.

beefcake · 04-21-10, 08:35 AM

good luck!

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 08:46 AM

Ferrer turned it around, won the 1st set 7-5.

JNic · 04-21-10, 09:12 AM

thanks for the rojadirecta site, good stuff

Tsonga · 04-21-10, 10:14 AM

ramos-vinolas breaks to go up 5-4...what the

? needless to say i am backing gonzalez and hope that he turns things around....he is definetely not the most reliable guy - he is prone to hitting tons of errors...but you figure a guy playing in his first atp draw shouldn't be able to knock off a top 10 player.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 10:43 AM

Gonzo has the 2nd set in his hands now. Easy difference to see, he's getting more 1st serves in and getting more points as a result.

Tsonga · 04-21-10, 10:54 AM

loses his chance at 5-3....

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 10:58 AM

Yeah IF he wins, he's going to be working hard. I only used him in a parlay, but I expected him to pull through.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 11:16 AM

Gonzo bails himself out and wins the tie break. Wheeew.

Tsonga · 04-21-10, 11:19 AM

crazy...i hate tie-breaks when the wrong guy has lots of match points.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 11:30 AM

Gonzo already behind a break in the 3rd. Doesn't seem like he's gonna bail himself out again. You didn't back Gonzalez on the moneyline as a single play did you?

Tsonga · 04-21-10, 11:46 AM

i made that mistake...not for the full -600 or whatever it was.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 11:51 AM

Parlay dies with Gonzalez. Martin was in control in the 2nd set, trying to get to the 3rd against Bolelli, but now they're on serve at 3-3. Hoping he can pull it out because it's anyone's match if they go to the 3rd. Verdasco up a break on Gasquet in 1st.

MUHerd37 · 04-21-10, 11:55 AM

I just got nailed with Gonzalez as well. Just lost to #161 in the world.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 12:03 PM

Today was a tough day I think. You had either really high chalk or a lot of 50-50 type matches where 50% might be your win rate for the day on them unless you just get lucky. Stupid me, I talk shit about Hewitt not being 100% yesterday and decide not to go against him today and he loses. I did wind up taking the F-Lo & Istomin Over at 21.5. Neither of them is at home on clay, so it's either going to be a lot of holding serve for both or plentiful breaks ... either of which I hope will get that done.

I need to make my list this week of players that I think I should have my head examined when I wager on them. Compile that list and when two play each other, AVOID it. Andreev-Gasquet would have qualified. Gulbis-Chardy today qualified as well.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 12:22 PM

Well if there was an award for sucking in tie breaks, Alberto Martin wins. Gets to a pair of tie breaks and wins three points total. Of course if he didn't suck to begin with, he would have won the 2nd set without going to the breaker. Oh well, tennis Gods seemed to be against me today from missing my Bellucci bet by a minute to the retirement screwing a likely win on the Under to Gonzo sucking, etc. If I can get the Lopez-Istomin Over and my Challenger parlay from yesterday can finish with a Sweeting win, I'll be happy to be around .500.

Schmidty29 · 04-21-10, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by MUHerd37

I just got nailed with Gonzalez as well. Just lost to #161 in the world.

word

Tsonga · 04-21-10, 03:06 PM

gonzalez killed my good month....i was up quite a bit +400 before and now i'm up 44 bucks....

Boner_18 · 04-21-10, 03:30 PM

Thinking why can't Tsonga take out Almagro again tomorrow. Thoughts?

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 04:41 PM

Not sure about that one. Almagro has been lights out on serve this week so far ... and there was a rumor that Jo-Willy had a groin strain coming into this ... don't know if that is accurate or not. PLUS it's a revenge spot if you believe in those, the books obviously do with Almagro at -130. Could be a good O/U play ... won't get less than 22.5 I'm sure, might even be 23 .. but if Almagro serves like he has in the first two rounds and Tsonga does well .. could be two tight sets again at worst.

I see a group of guys that should be good for some sort of parlay combo tomorrow: JCF,Ferrer,Verdasco, Soderling. Soderling & Verdasco give you the best payout because of their lower chalk. Verdasco has Melzer who he should outclass. Soderling draws F.Lopez who he also has a class advantage against on this surface. F-Lo/Soda could be a decent OVER too if it's set low enough. I"m guessing it's probably gonna be 22.5 though ... rather see 21.5 or 22 because Lopez can get killed quick if his serve isn't right ... see his match against Berdych last week.

Tsonga · 04-21-10, 05:02 PM

i agree that the o/u is a better play for tsonga/almagro. Its a coin flip...Almagro does have the advantage of it being a hometown tournament and he will have the crowd..i would take the over and enjoy the match.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-22-10, 12:42 AM

Well no O/U set at 5Dimes, but looking at Pinnacle ...

Almagro-Tsonga is 22.5, still like the OVER.
Lopez-Soderling is 20.5, mos def on the OVER.
JCF-de Bakker is 19.5, lean to the UNDER. de Bakker has a lot of Challenger level clay success, but he hasn't played many of the top dogs. Nadal crushed him 6-1, 6-0. JCF won't dominate that badly, but he's capable of a 6-4, 6-3, I THINK.

Parlay: Ferrero, Ferrer, Verdasco, Soderling: [-127]

Parlay in the book tonight before I got to sleep, then I'll see what's up at 5Dimes when I get up in the morning. Probably only be on the two OVERs because I think the JCF match will be in progress by the time I get up. Happy hunting today fellas.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-22-10, 09:05 AM

The OVER for Almagro-Tsonga is a done deal. Almagro won set #1, 7-5 and now Tsonga is up 5-0 in the 2nd. Looks like a 3rd set will be interesting.

JCF now up a break in the 2nd against de Bakker after blowing the 1st set. Also looks headed to a 3rd.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-22-10, 09:38 AM

Toying with playing Ramos-Vinolas over Gulbis at +260. The more I look at Gulbis on clay, the more I just don't like the high favorite's tag for him. Ramos-Vinolas is young, but he plays the majority of his matches on clay and is on home turf or should I say dirt. I'm not sure you can take much away from Gulbis against Luczak & Chardy. Ramos now has big match experience in beating Fernando yesterday regardless of whether Gonzo had his head up his ass or not.

I THINK it's worth a whirl.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-22-10, 09:48 AM

Also looking at the Tallahassee Challenger today. I THINK my Aussie favorite Nick Lindahl is worth a shot again today at -110 against Dabul. Not sure, but I THINK Rajeev Ram at +160 against Ryan Sweeting ... MIGHT, MIGHT be another play. Sweeting beat him in straights in a Challenger in 2009 and is playing well the last two weeks .. BUT having him as a -200 or higher favorite, I dunno.

If you care, Lindahl match is at Noon ET. Ram match is afterward. I have noticed that Bet365.com has a scoreboard for the center court matches at this event which both of these should be on.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-22-10, 09:54 AM

JCF in a dog fight with de Bakker at 5-5 in the 3rd. JCF has got to be hating himself for screwing up the 1st set after he broke the Dutch in the first game and then lost a tie breaker eventually. I'm fearing another high priced favorite is going to squash my parlay today.

Tsonga outlasts Almagro. I said it when he beat Almagro last week, he's one to watch on clay based on price because the books are going to under value him against dirt ballers thinking he's outclassed - but I think we have to continue to see as Tsonga gets more experience if he's able to handle these guys consistently.

beefcake · 04-22-10, 10:23 AM

good read on tsonga..