EP36's Tennis Talk

[EaglesPhan36]

Things I THINK I Know ... Wednesday, April 28th

I THINK Berdych & Wawrinka should provide the match of the day. I THINK Wawrinka is in better form on this surface and provides a more even game compared to the sometimes hit or miss antics of Berdych. Getting WaWa at plus money here at +110 seems like the right move to make.

I THINK I like Ivan Ljubicic's chances against Nicolas Almagro at +145. Almagro seems to carry a favorite's tag on clay based on the perceived notion that he is still one of the better dirt ballers out there. Not so, by his 2010 form. Almagro is just 7-5 on clay this season. His match against Kubot in the opener showed consistency problems as he struggled losing the 1st set, but then found his groove. Ljubicic isn't a guy you'd normally think of as a clay court guy, but he's won about 58% of his matches on the surface. He beat Almagro on this surface last fall, but that was a match in Croatia. Still, if Ljubicic gets his first serve in - this will be a tight match and I THINK one he can pull off.

I THINK totals on Wednesay that I prefer: Isner & Bellucci OVER 22.5. Isner isn't a mug on clay as some would lend you to believe. Even on a slower surface, his serve is a huge weapon as evidenced with the 20 aces against Zeballos. He's gotten some nice clay experience this Spring with Davis Cup play and I THINK he acquitted himself well by playing a lot of tight sets against solid players like Djokovic. Bellucci is a potential stud on this surface, but he does show lapses of concentration as with the 2nd set against Mayer yesterday before demolishing him in the 3rd. Even if this one is a two setter, with Isner's serve, I THINK the OVER has a legit shot. An interesting O/U is Nadal-Kohlschreiber at 17. Everyone expects Rafa to come in and steamroll the competition. He'll likely get hot in this tournament, but I THINK Kohlschreiber coming in with a match in-hand and generally some decent form ... MIGHT have enough to win six games which would lend to an OVER. Not sold for certain, but one to entertain.

[Goat Milk]

Impossible parlay just for kicks

F.Volandri Games Won/J.Benneteau Games Won* Over 22½ -115
R.Nadal Games Won/P.Kohlschreiber Games Won* Over 17 -115
Stanislas Wawrinka* -105 vs Tomas Berdych
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga* -295 vs Viktor Troicki
Santiago Giraldo* -240 vs Michael Llodra
D.Ferrer Games Won/P.Starace Games Won* Over 20 -120

for $4 lol

[EaglesPhan36]

Man this is how I envisioned this day. Seems like when I like so many underdogs, I wind up choosing the wrong ones. Wawrinka got rolled in the 1st set. Oh well, I'd be happy if I got a split with Ljubicic-Wawrinka .. but something tells me that's gonna be tough since I passed on winners in Volandri & Garcia-Lopez.

Good thing I skipped the Nadal total, he killed Kohly 6-1 in the 1st set. Damn he's wicked awesome.

[jashtonrich]

Man this is how I envisioned this day. Seems like when I like so many underdogs, I wind up choosing the wrong ones. Wawrinka got rolled in the 1st set. Oh well, I'd be happy if I got a split with Ljubicic-Wawrinka .. but something tells me that's gonna be tough since I passed on winners in Volandri & Garcia-Lopez.

Good thing I skipped the Nadal total, he killed Kohly 6-1 in the 1st set. Damn he's wicked awesome.

yeah i fell into the trap once it went plus money i jumped out the window head first i wish i would not have gone against a man who wears bright nike apparel and has the women wishing they had hair like

[MUHerd37]

I got several parlays going. I took Almagro over Ljubicic in one of them. I really like the way he plays. He should be able to out last the old man if he needs to.

[EaglesPhan36]

F-ing A, Wawrinka wins a 3rd set tie break!

[EaglesPhan36]

Got that money with the OVER in the Isner-Bellucci match now. If Ljubicic can find a way to finish off Almagro, dare I say I'd have aother winning day?

[beefcake]

NICE!!! Winner...cash your play..!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Yes! Ljubicic in two. Pretty darn excited about today. Looked like it was headed down the shitter with that first set from Wawrinka, but things turned out nicely.

[EaglesPhan36]

Things I THINK I Know ... Thursday, April 29th ...

I THINK when starting out on Thursday, the O/U numbers are a good place to look. Verdasco takes on Garcia-Lopez with the O/U set at 21. I like the OVER here as I THINK GGL may be able to keep up with a fatigued Verdasco. This is my favorite wager of the day, I THINK as I expect this one could be a three setter. Even with two sets, 21 lends itself to a do-able match if Verdasco's serve is not in a different world.

I THINK when looking to a two person parlay for today, I THINK it starts with me on Ljubicic. The Croat takes on Feliciano Lopez. Ljubicic is somewhat of an underrated clay court player to me. He's capable on this surface, while Lopez more often than not is not at his best on clay. Big serves could keep this match close, but Ljubicic is my guy. Add in a confident Ernests Gulbis for a payout of +116. Volandri has the home country advantage, but he's still a Challenger level guy. Gulbis has proved himself to be solid enough on clay, so long as his serve is a weapon. On this surface in Rome, it seems as though big servers do have the advantage, so Gulbis should have enough to get through.

I also THINK that adding Djokovic into parlays is a worthwhile prop.

I also THINK despite my better judgement, that I like David Ferrer at -140 against Andy Murray. This surface is not Murray's best and I THINK he is still in a bit of the Federer aftershock mode. Ferrer has been a steady competitor on clay this season and I THINK despite this being a match-up of defense on defense ... Ferrer mentally may be in a better place right now. Not a large play here, but I THINK Ferrer will outlast Murray.

And a small play on Garcia-Lopez too, just for shits.

[Yezzir]

Love your threads, always read them.

Was LOVING over 20.5 in Nando/Lopez.

Wasn't looking good, until Lopez just broke back at 5-3 down in the 2nd to make it 5-4, hopefully he holds serve, and the over is ours.

[Yezzir]

World class drop shot to win the game.

5-5 and the over is ours.

EP36

[shari91]

Love, love, love your write-ups EP!!! We were both on Wawrinka and Ljubi last night so I'm happy we both cashed

Best of luck today with your plays!

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks. I probably would have developed an ulcer if I knew GGL went down 5-3 and found his way back to even. I left my house about 15 minutes ago and Nando was up 3-2, but it was on-serve. Hoping for a tie break and maybe a GGL rally to get a 3rd set, just to see my small play on GGL as being worthwhile even if he loses.

[Yezzir]

Thanks. I probably would have developed an ulcer if I knew GGL went down 5-3 and found his way back to even. I left my house about 15 minutes ago and Nando was up 3-2, but it was on-serve. Hoping for a tie break and maybe a GGL rally to get a 3rd set, just to see my small play on GGL as being worthwhile even if he loses.

Looks like GGL is going to be washed away in the TB.

[shari91]

Thanks. I probably would have developed an ulcer if I knew GGL went down 5-3 and found his way back to even. I left my house about 15 minutes ago and Nando was up 3-2, but it was on-serve. Hoping for a tie break and maybe a GGL rally to get a 3rd set, just to see my small play on GGL as being worthwhile even if he loses.

No kidding. I only put $100 on Lopez but had to turn it off. More stressed out watching that match for some reason than when I have a lot more on a basketball game. Hopefully he can pull this one off for us!!

[Yezzir]

Bye bye GGL.

But the over is in.

[Tsonga]

had the over on the belluci/djoker match at 20...thought i had it...got a push. I'm on tsonga today and hope he can pull through his match....i think ferrer will knock off murray as well.

[EaglesPhan36]

I like Tsonga too. Giraldo has been playing well, but he's a Challenger level guy for me. Tsonga I think is still underrated on the surface because he has begun to prove he can play on clay. I think Giraldo is getting action because of beating Ferrero, but I still think JCF was gassed and not interested in being in this tournament.

[Yezzir]

I'm on Giraldo, because the odds were tempting.

Tsonga's odds are just too low, considering how inconsistent he can be.

[EaglesPhan36]

Typical Gulbis. Looks great, then horrible from set to set. Going to a 3rd. Need him to refind his serve.

[Yezzir]

Gulbis just can't find the court.

[EaglesPhan36]

Lopez gets the walkover on Ljubicic. Damn. He was my dark horse in that quarter and part of my parlay ... although Gulbis is gonna fudge that anyhow I believe.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bully! Gulbis recovers in the tie break and pulls out the win. My parlay isn't gonna pay crap since the Ljubicic portion gets no action due to the retirement, but at least it's still a win. Gulbis gets F.Lopez next round. Interested to see the price. Gulbis is finding ways to win, even though they are maddening to his backers ... OVER in that one looks tasty I'd think at 22.5 or less, but it might be 23. Lopez isn't great on clay, but his serve on this particular clay court is a weapon still.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ferrer wins 6-3, 6-4. May have been the best price for a favorite in 2010. How he opened at -130 against Mug Murray on clay is beyond me, but much appreciated by my bank account. Looks like Wawrinka might be springing a nice upset at +200 or more today against Soderling. He's pretty much dominating the guy.

[beefcake]

What a great day

[MUHerd37]

I still can't believe that Wozniacki and Azarenka both lost. Thought they were both locks.

[beefcake]

Azarenka has lost I think 3 matches in row to HUGE dogs,albeit one was a retirement..You could have bought a new friggin car with hardly any investment if you would have taken the dogs..

[EaglesPhan36]

Things I THINK I Know ... Friday, April 30th

I THINK my favorite wager of the day could be the O/U between Gulbis & Lopez. It's set at 22.5. Gulbis has had to battle all week with very uneven sets after he trashed Baghdatis in the opening round. He's gone from zero to hero and back from set to set with his serve being a big weapon. If Gulbis can get his first serve in, he will be tough to beat. Lopez is not a great clay court player, but this Rome clay is playing a bit fast and that benefits the big serve of F.Lo. He's got 23 aces in his two matches here and will be the fresher of the two. I don't THINK Lopez will win in the end, but even if this one winds up finishing in two sets ... these two may hold serve long enough to make the OVER a solid shot. Don't count out another 3 set flip-flop for Gulbis.

I THINK when sticking to the two person parlay formula, start with David Ferrer. Ferrer is in a different class on clay than Tsonga. Having not met before, I THINK is a big advantage to Ferrer whose defensive skills on dirt are almost unparalleled. Tsonga continues to improve on dirt, but his serve does not seem to be a big enough factor to earn him enough cheap points to beat the likes of Ferrer. I thought hard about Djokovic here, but I also read some info that he might have some sort of shoulder issue, so I'm actually going to mix & match with the WTA. Zoiks! Going to ride the hot hand of Stosur over Li at reasonable odds. Stosur has been locked & loaded on clay since last year's French. Winning Charleston and now getting it done in Stuttgart, Stosur - I THINK has the advantage over Li Na, Na Li due to her serve. In fact, I'm surprised at the price, but Li likely helped keep Stosur low by beating Kuznetsova. Tidy payoff of +134 with this combo.

After originally siding with Djokovic in a revenge spot over Verdasco, I THINK I may ride small on the Spaniard. He's white hot and while fatigue may be a factor, his serve has been solid this week and that is the X factor I THINK in this match. If Verdasco's serve is on, that is an edge over Djokovic who admitted that his serve was the reason for his white wash loss to Verdasco in Monte Carlo. Djokovic has been at home with two finals appearances in Rome, but I don't know - the rumors of shoulder soreness keep me from backing the Serb here. Bellucci in fact had a couple breaks on Djokovic, but could not hold. Verdasco I THINK has the guile to roll with these topsy-turvy matches. Look at his second set against Garcia-Lopez where he went down 1-3, then rolled up to a 5-3 lead before having to go to a tie breaker to win. This is one I just have the Spidey Sense tingling on. A guy who has won two straight clay titles at +165 is worth the risk here after much THINKING.

[beefcake]

good write up as usual Ep...Good luck!

[Spanks]

VERDASCO...TOO MUCH TENNIS
GULBIS...SAME...BOTH LOSE...

[Yezzir]

Fatigue or not, Verdasco is the play.

Destroyed Novak in their past 2 meetings in straight sets, Novak not playing at his best at all, Nando is on a roll, finding ways to win, no way should Novak's odds be that low.

[shari91]

People have been going on about Verdasco's fatigue issues for what? Three weeks now? Going to put a bit on him.

Good luck tonight and thanks again for the awesome write up EP!!! Nice to see you sticking with Stosur - think she's shocking a lot of people down here in the media who had counted her as done a long time ago.

[EaglesPhan36]

Verdasco blew his shot at the opening set. Serving for it at 5-4, got broke ... but ahhhh he broke right back. I think Nando needs to serve it out right here. Think this 1st set is very important for him.

[rumple]

What a disaster up 30-0 to piss that set away.