EP36's Tennis Talk

**SRBI** · 05-10-10, 11:05 AM

FFS...damn it Tomo...I still got faith though. Thanks for the link...btw I just realized, this kid is only 18

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 11:11 AM

Yep. He's going to be a good one on the hard stuff first I think, but he needs to play more tennis though to mature his body and his game. He's barely played anything since the Australian Open.

**beefcake** · 05-10-10, 11:15 AM

come on tomic...

Dam Rico suave sure turned around his match vs Kolbschriber..

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 11:27 AM

Yeah I almost took Giraldo this morning, but wanted to just stick with my original plays. Kohlschreiber might pull it out, but he looks like a bit of a mess in his last two matches.

**beefcake** · 05-10-10, 11:32 AM

Sometimes im glad I dont have access to euro books,all these live bets would bankrupt me..

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 11:36 AM

True that. Always best to stick with your original wager on a match and let it ride I think. Tomic just doesn't have enough to win today it doesn't appear, unless he can keep holding serve and maybe get lucky in a tie break.

**beefcake** · 05-10-10, 11:41 AM

see yah tomic,oh well small potatoes..

**SRBI** · 05-10-10, 11:41 AM

That was the quickest money I've lost in recent time...wow, fukkin Tomic you disgrace

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 11:43 AM

Yeah don't ever go too hard on Challengers. I'll still watch for Tomic again next tournament if he plays on hard courts. I'm wondering if his parents/coaches are being over protective of him. If you look at the tournaments he's played, most of them are in Australia. They actually let him travel to play some clay Challengers this Spring. Maybe they'll start putting him into more foreign situations to build up his confidence. Can't play in your home country and have a career.

Looks like the F.Lo OVER is gonna be a bust too. Kubot still serves like a doosh.

**beefcake** · 05-10-10, 11:57 AM

Lets hear it for the qualies today....2-1....

**beefcake** · 05-10-10, 01:43 PM

Well Eagles,tons of challengers late night tonight with korea and early in the AM in france..

Still 2 later on this afternoon in sarasota....Dent looks a decent price,he is from bradenton,just next door.One meeting last year...which he dominated stat wise vs smyczek..

And Jesse Levine sucks bad...0-4 in challengers this year,dont know who catalin gard is...

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 03:41 PM

One I THINK I like is Smyczek over Dent. Dent is awful. I backed that F last week in a parlay and he was shameful. The Sarasota Challenger is on clay which I think further hampers Dent. Smyczek at least played on dirt recently too, so should have an acclimation advantage. 5Dimes has the start time listed as 6:30pm ET.

I looked at the Korean Challenger, I couldn't even tell anyone who 3/4 of the draw are if I had their mug shots.

The French one might be interesting, I at least see some recognizable names. Probably can dig up some good parlays there. Gasquet is slumming it up at that one. Another clay courter.

**rojeroni** · 05-10-10, 04:18 PM

Nice call on Dolgopolov over Seppi. Got it at a nice +147. Thanks.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 05:16 PM

This could be an easy loss of money, but FU steamers - Dent at -260 now? Smyczek in Sarasota at +180, gotta do it. They're both absolutely clueless I THINK on clay as they both don't play much, but Dent to me is more lost in general. We'll see what's what!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-10-10, 06:45 PM

Smyczek wins by retirement. Dent won 6-2 in the 1st set and Smyczek was ahead 4-2 in the 2nd. Man there's some pissed off mutha f*ckas right now who paid -260 for Dent. The price went from -165 I think to -260 in the span of about a half hour. Fishy. But F it, I got on the right truck.

**beefcake** · 05-10-10, 07:53 PM

nice one,feels good to on the right side of the retirement train

**shari91** · 05-11-10, 04:19 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Yeah don't ever go too hard on Challengers. I'll still watch for Tomic again next tournament if he plays on hard courts. I'm wondering if his parents/coaches are being over protective of him. If you look at the tournaments he's played, most of them are in Australia. They actually let him travel to play some clay Challengers this Spring. Maybe they'll start putting him into more foreign situations to build up his confidence. Can't play in your home country and have a career. Looks like the F.Lo OVER is gonna be a bust too. Kubot still serves like a doosh.

Tomic is a great kid and has a lot of talent but his dad is an absolute nutter - almost as bad as Dokic's. Ok, well maybe not that bad, but still definitely a commanding stage father. In a country like Australia where the people here will back an Aussie every time, even Hewitt who is by far not a fan favourite, it's pretty telling that there were people booing him in the Aus Open and he was taking a beating in the papers because of his attitude towards Hewitt and his refusal to end their rift.

If this kid doesn't get some proper management soon, I can see him turning into a complete basketcase of a player misguided by a controlling father. Just my opinion of course. Best of luck today and thanks for the write-ups as always!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 06:28 AM

Things I THINK I Know ... Tuesday, May 11th

I THINK there are a lot of big prices on the board today as far as the chalk goes. In looking for a parlay, I'll start with Isner. He was a surprise finalist in Belgrade, but Big John I THINK is starting to show that with that serve - he is a threat on faster clay. That seems to be how this Madrid surface is playing. His match-up with Rochus is very favorable considering Rochus has not won a main draw ATP match on clay since getting a couple surprising winners at the French in 2009. Rochus did get through qualifying here, so he might get Isner a bit in the early going - but I THINK Isner has too much talent in the end to lose to Rochus. I THINK Wawrinka is a nice one to pair him with. He takes on Granollers who has struggling to beat anyone with talent on clay. He lost to Cuevas in Estoril. Berdych in Rome. Ferrer in Barcelona. JCF in Monte Carlo. Wawrinka has been very steady on dirt this Spring, winning Casablanca, losing in the 3rd round to Djokovic in Monte Carlo and then making the quarters in Barcelona [Nadal] and a surprise lost to Isner in the semis of Belgrade. He'll need to bring a solid serve today, but I THINK he has plenty in the tank to get past Granollers. This pairing costs you about -160.

Stosur at -125 over Sanchez on the WTA side looks inticing. Sanchez had the big run in Rome, but Stosur might be playing some of the best tennis of her career this year. This surface is playing faster again and that works into the racket of the Aussie who has the better serve of the two. It won't be a cakewalk though as these two have already met three times this season. Sanchez beat Stosur on a hard court surface to start the year and then played her tough twice after that in Fed Cup play & at Indian Wells. Stosur must serve well to have a chance, but I THINK she does and if Sanchez had not won Rome last week ... this price would have been a lot higher.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 07:07 AM

I THINK down on the Challenger Level, in Bordeaux, getting the home standing Michael Llodra at -150 is a pretty good shot. Llodra surely isn't at his best on dirt, but his opponent Koubek isn't much to speak of on dirt either. Llodra almost always puts forth his best performances in his home country - and if you recall he's not a total mook on dirt. In 2008, he made the 4th round at Roland Garros. This seems like a relatively nice price in this situation, definitely one to THINK about throwing in a parlay, I THINK. May throw this in with Isner & Wawrinka to bring that parlay to a very nice +170. Not without its risks as I still believe two selection parlays have a much better shot to clear, but this lowers the risk price and ups the reward.

O/U numbers today aren't very much to like. One I am sitting on, but it represents exactly what this match is ... Berdych-Nalbandian at 23. The match seems like it will be very even and potentially a 3 set thrill ride if both show up ready to play. They've met five times in their careers, although none have come in the past three years. I THINK with Nalbandian's fitness always a question mark till he proves it deep in a tournament and Berdych - despite a surprise loss last tournament - in relatively good clay form, this has a chance to go OVER .. but will need to go 3 to do so.

**alias69** · 05-11-10, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by shari91

Tomic is a great kid and has a lot of talent but his dad is an absolute nutter - almost as bad as Dokic's. Ok, well maybe not that bad, but still definitely a commanding stage father. In a country like Australia where the people here will back an Aussie every time, even Hewitt who is by far not a fan favourite, it's pretty telling that there were people booing him in the Aus Open and he was taking a beating in the papers because of his attitude towards Hewitt and his refusal to end their rift.

If this kid doesn't get some proper management soon, I can see him turning into a complete basketcase of a player misguided by a controlling father. Just my opinion of course. Best of luck today and thanks for the write-ups as always!!

thats rite mate and unfortunately tomic atm is following his parents wishes.

**Tsonga** · 05-11-10, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Things I THINK I Know ... Tuesday, May 11th

I THINK there are a lot of big prices on the board today as far as the chalk goes. In looking for a parlay, I'll start with Isner. He was a surprise finalist in Belgrade, but Big John I THINK is starting to show that with that serve - he is a threat on faster clay. That seems to be how this Madrid surface is playing. His match-up with Rochus is very favorable considering Rochus has not won a main draw ATP match on clay since getting a couple surprising winners at the French in 2009. Rochus did get through qualifying here, so he might get Isner a bit in the early going - but I THINK Isner has too much talent in the end to lose to Rochus. I THINK Wawrinka is a nice one to pair him with. He takes on Granollers who has struggling to beat anyone with talent on clay. He lost to Cuevas in Estoril. Berdych in Rome. Ferrer in Barcelona. JCF in Monte Carlo. Wawrinka has been very steady on dirt this Spring, winning Casablanca, losing in the 3rd round to Djokovic in Monte Carlo and then making the quarters in Barcelona [Nadal] and a surprise lost to Isner in the semis of Belgrade. He'll need to bring a solid serve today, but I THINK he has plenty in the tank to get past Granollers. This pairing costs you about -160.

Stosur at -125 over Sanchez on the WTA side looks inticing. Sanchez had the big run in Rome, but Stosur might be playing some of the best tennis of her career this year. This surface is playing faster again and that works into the racket of the Aussie who has the better serve of the two. It won't be a cakewalk though as these two have already met three times this season. Sanchez beat Stosur on a hard court surface to start the year and then played her tough twice after that in Fed Cup play & at Indian Wells. Stosur must serve well to have a chance, but I THINK she does and if Sanchez had not won Rome last week ... this price would have been a lot higher.

I would be shocked if Isner lost to Rochus...I think this is a great play.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 10:29 AM

Stosur wins ... still seems like the books really under value her despite how well she has played on clay.

Llodra wins 6-4, 6-4. Wawrinka ahead in the 2nd, trying to put Granollers away.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 10:48 AM

Wawrinka wins 6-4, 6-4. Just waiting on Isner to cash that parlay. He should win 6-4, 6-4 for Karmatic purposes.

**tailmypicks** · 05-11-10, 11:24 AM

thinking about taking over in dulgher dementieva match
dulgheru is an OVER machine and elena isnt in great form

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 12:54 PM

What was the O/U on that? Isner just got a much needed break in the 2nd set, trying to battle back to even it up. All three of the finalists from the last two ATP events that played today have been involved in 3 set matches. Querrey lost to a Spanish quali, a little unexpected but of the three [Isner & Youzhny] he was the one I would have been most worried about. Youzhny rebounded to crush Lacko after losing the 1st set. Isner now up 4-1 in the 2nd and looks headed to a 3rd set.

**tailmypicks** · 05-11-10, 01:12 PM

was over under 20 but i ended up not taking it and it looks like it might hit

**Tsonga** · 05-11-10, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

What was the O/U on that? Isner just got a much needed break in the 2nd set, trying to battle back to even it up. All three of the finalists from the last two ATP events that played today have been involved in 3 set matches. Querrey lost to a Spanish quali, a little unexpected but of the three [Isner & Youzhny] he was the one I would have been most worried about. Youzhny rebounded to crush Lacko after losing the 1st set. Isner now up 4-1 in the 2nd and looks headed to a 3rd set.

me too at the onset (regarding Querrey)...but I let the fact that I had never heard of the qualifier and Querrey's solid play lead me to go big on querrey...that hurt a good streak i had going....i'm on the over for dr. ivo/verdasco 22.5...

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 01:40 PM

Isner finishes off the parlay.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 01:54 PM

I think there was a double withdraw on Nalbandian and Berdych?!!? WTF. Fat Dave strikes again. It's not Michael Russell and Mardy Fish.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 02:02 PM

I THINK I'm going one Challenger afternoon play simply because I can't believe Donald Young is almost a -300 favorite on any surface. Young is taking on Austrian Joseph Sirianni in Sarasota today. Both had decent runs in Savannah last week with DY going a round further than Sirianni. Still, as Challenger level guys they don't play much on dirt ... but Sirianni has had a little more experience over his short career on the stuff. DY may well win this, but the talent gap I don't think is as enormous as the price is suggesting. Toss a little on it and I THINK perhaps a beanstalk shall sprout.

**beefcake** · 05-11-10, 02:44 PM

Youre right,," Fat Dave Buffet" Strikes again.....

Melzer gets the 45 extra points and the $16,000 coasting to the 3rd round..Heshould buy Dave an AYCE in madrid

**Yezzir** · 05-11-10, 03:28 PM

EP36 does it again.

My favourite Tennis tipster!

Have some points.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 03:30 PM

Dang. Thanks for the points.

**Yezzir** · 05-11-10, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Dang. Thanks for the points.

No, Thank YOU.

I cashed in BIG on that parlay thanks to you.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-11-10, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I THINK I'm going one Challenger afternoon play simply because I can't believe Donald Young is almost a -300 favorite on any surface. Young is taking on Austrian Joseph Sirianni in Sarasota today. Both had decent runs in Savannah last week with DY going a round further than Sirianni. Still, as Challenger level guys they don't play much on dirt ... but Sirianni has had a little more experience over his short career on the stuff. DY may well win this, but the talent gap I don't think is as enormous as the price is suggesting. Toss a little on it and I THINK perhaps a beanstalk shall sprout.

Sirianni won 6-4, 6-4. That is the third match of the day that I bet on that finished with that scoreline. Weird, but way cool when it works in your favor.