EP36's Tennis Talk

**noober** · 05-17-10, 11:22 PM

Here is a good play from Uzbekistan:

Kirillov over Molchanov at 2.1 from bet365.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-18-10, 12:06 AM

Also because the price I THINK is just not correct. Rybarikova +200 against Oudin. Oudin has done most of her clay damage in the USA with very little experience overseas on dirt. Since QF runs at Ponte Vedra & Charleston, Oudin has lost 3 of 4 on clay in Europe. Rybarikova has been in poor form, but on dirt she took Bondarenko to 3 sets in Madrid last week and has played fairly competitve matches against Jaknkovic & Stosur in the past month. I THINK for this one, I just don't buy Oudin being worth this high a price even if Rybarikova isn't exactly lighting it up either. With sketchy serves, you never know.

**VOJVODINA** · 05-18-10, 02:08 AM

GL

**JNic** · 05-18-10, 07:51 AM

anyone see Greta Arn win a 3 hour match over Martic, winning 6/29 bps and she was broken 4 times herself. WTA is incredible

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-18-10, 08:08 AM

Well that parlay was adventurous and a loser. Baghdatis one got cancelled because he played a different opponent and Montanes just got beat in straights.

**beefcake** · 05-18-10, 08:15 AM

Dam montanes....maybe he was still feeling the inury?

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-18-10, 08:28 AM

Challenger level today, another line that doesn't make sense. Young Bulgarian Gregor Dimitrov is almost a -300 favorite today in Italy. Kid is 19 and has played about a half dozen clay court matches in his young career with mixed results and has not played on the surface this season. Bagnis is also a youngster [20] from Argentina. As with many South Americans, he plays the majority of his matches on dirt. Most of his experience on clay in 2010 has been in qualifying, but he's played a ton more matches on this surface than Dimitrov. Dimitrov is the bigger talent of the two, but the price to me is ridiculous with how inexperienced Dimitrov is on clay. At +210, I THINK Bagnis is worth a go this morning.

**noober** · 05-18-10, 08:33 AM

I found out that the match was scheduled for late Tuesday because Dimitrov was taking exams on Monday in Bulgaria. Probably he wasn't able to prepare very well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-18-10, 08:38 AM

Also thinking about taking Chardy +105 against Troicki this morning. Troicki labored through a grueling match against Monaco yesterday while Chardy beat Kohlschreiber quickly in straights. Neither is great on the surface, but Chardy has shown more in neutral situations whereas Troicki's best results on dirt have come on his home soil. At plus money, Chardy at least offers some decent odds. Should be all about the serve with these two. France is going to be up 1-0 because Mathieu is winning his match in this team competition, so a French win here and I believe they move on.

**beefcake** · 05-18-10, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by noober

I found out that the match was scheduled for late Tuesday because Dimitrov was taking exams on Monday in Bulgaria. Probably he wasn't able to prepare very well.

Excellent info noober..

**beefcake** · 05-18-10, 09:02 AM

Now that I think about it,fading monfils tommorrow might be wise,the chudster might take him out

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-18-10, 09:43 AM

Well at least for a set, looking good for Rybarikova. She bageled Oudin.

**beefcake** · 05-18-10, 09:57 AM

Oudin getting overvalued on one tourney from last year..

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-18-10, 10:04 AM

I think a lot of it too is that she has played well in the States in some events, but she hasn't played a lot of foreign matches - no need to pay a big price on a young play with a short track record.

**beefcake** · 05-18-10, 10:06 AM

4-1 in the 2nd...!

**beefcake** · 05-18-10, 10:07 AM

5-1 baby!

**beefcake** · 05-18-10, 10:08 AM

Please no jana novatna now...

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-18-10, 10:18 AM

Yeah boy!

Rybarikova: 6-0, 6-2. Makes up for the parlay loss. Now starting fresh with Chardy & Bagnis. If I can get a split of those two, at least it's a short profit.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-18-10, 11:16 AM

Chardy pulling his usual shit when I back him. Playing just good enough to stick around, but losing the big points.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-18-10, 11:35 AM

I think I just gotta put Chardy on my no-fly list along with Andreev. Guy always burns me no matter what I bet.

**Goat Milk** · 05-18-10, 01:40 PM

EP- I bet Gasquet under 19.5 games earlier, easy- Gasquet will cruise through this tourney bro. It's his to lose.

**noober** · 05-18-10, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by noober

Do you have any opinion on Evgeny Kirillov? I think taking him over Molchanov at 2.1 is a good play for tomorrow. In juniors Kirillov used to own him. In men, the head to head is 1-1 with Molchanov taking the last win, which explains the good price we can get on Kirillov.

Kirillov wins 6-4 6-3

I didn't take it though.

**beefcake** · 05-18-10, 02:58 PM

Me neither,with the frech coming up,hard for me to take shots on the challengers and reduce my bankroll..

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-18-10, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

EP- I bet Gasquet under 19.5 games earlier, easy- Gasquet will cruise through this tourney bro. It's his to lose.

His to lose? My man if he wins this tournament, I'll get you 50 SBR points some how, some way. He got a nice draw by Montanes crashing out today, but he still has to go through Soderling and then maybe Monfils or Kubot. And if he makes the final, probably Verdasco, Baghdatis or Bellucci. If that's his to lose, then yes, it's his to lose.

**Goat Milk** · 05-18-10, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

His to lose? My man if he wins this tournament, I'll get you 50 SBR points some how, some way. He got a nice draw by Montanes crashing out today, but he still has to go through Soderling and then maybe Monfils or Kubot. And if he makes the final, probably Verdasco, Baghdatis or Bellucci. If that's his to lose, then yes, it's his to lose.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-19-10, 08:40 AM

French Open Qualifier, I THINK I am making this play solely on the fatigue angle. Jesse Witten played almost FOUR hours yesterday to beat Marcos Daniel in Round 1. 17-15 in the final set that lasted over two hours. Australian John Millman is his opponent. Don't know much about the guy, but apparently I am not alone on this as Millman's price just got crushed from +100 to -135. Following the money on this and the fatigue.

**beefcake** · 05-19-10, 09:02 AM

Nice find.Well if Gasquet can beat Dol,he has gotten a golden road to the final with soderling losing to rochus(

) and bellucci going down.. Of course my dumbass laid off the future...

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-19-10, 09:03 AM

Yeah Goatmilk is going to look like a genius if he wins this.

**beefcake** · 05-19-10, 09:08 AM

Storybook ending here,gasquet rolls everyone here in nice,gets a good draw in paris,gets a few breaks here and there along the way with some people losing,and makes it to the semis at RG,and we have to hear the whole laced drink with coke story rehashed for 2 weeks and the redemption of richard...hey if pat freaking cash can win wimbledon then gasquet(when he wants to) has the talent to compete there..

**beefcake** · 05-19-10, 09:15 AM

Dam richard,save some for later,freaking bagel first set!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-19-10, 09:16 AM

Even if he makes the final, I still think the talent on the other side is better especially if Verdasco comes to play. That future at +150 on him is probably gonna be -150 or something worse if he wins today.

**Stacocakes** · 05-19-10, 10:35 AM

Hopefully you guys didn't take Soderling today. Tanked the match to Oliver Rochus of all people. Soderling was matched as low as 1.02 on Betfair after the first set. Some very very angry people surely this morning

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-19-10, 10:37 AM

Not me. Wouldn't touch that price even for a parlay. Looks like the fatigue angle on Witten isn't panning out so far. He's in control in the 1st set, trying to serve out at 5-2.

**shari91** · 05-19-10, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Hopefully you guys didn't take Soderling today. Tanked the match to Oliver Rochus of all people. Soderling was matched as low as 1.02 on Betfair after the first set. Some very very angry people surely this morning

I did. Took him in a small parlay with Baghdatis and Gasquet. Friggin shocking. Good thing it was a tiny bet or I'd be calling Air France right now to go over there and kick his arse.

**beefcake** · 05-19-10, 01:12 PM

Eagles,what do you think of Dimitrov at -140 for tommorrow? Seems like a fair price...