I think that's just a judgment call on your part. Do you want the big payoff or do you want to make sure you make something off it? I think Sharapova is pretty solid today, but as we've seen upsets do happen.
-
Comment -
Damn 5Dimes is taking their sweet ass time grading French Open wagers.
Comment -
Keep up the good work EPComment -
Cuevas getting slaughtered by Ferrero, though he'd be decent enough to at least keep these sets competitive.
Anywho. Gonna add one last O/U for the morning. Sharapova-Pervak OVER 18 at -125. Pervak is a talented youngster on clay and if she's not overwhelmed by the moment, I THINK she can win some games against Sharapova. It'd help if Sharapova's serve went a little wonky today too.
Comment -
Istomin takes it in straights.
Comment -
Looking around a little at tomorrow, much more favorable lines for the 2nd round for parlays. ATP side, gonna homework these up, but they pass the eye test first:
Baghdatis -240 [Granollers]
Isner -400 [Chuidinelli]
Bellucci -490 [Andujar]
Some dogs perhaps:
Dolgopolov +254 [Gonzalez] - maybe at least the handicap depending what it is.
Benneteau +137 [Mayer] - think the price needs to be above +150 to consider and not sure that it won't go lower because of Benneteau being French.
Also looking at de Bakker against Garcia-Lopez. Want to see where the line goes, expecting people to back de Bakker though. He's about -120.
WTA side ...
Dulgheru at -300 for parlay purposes.
Petkovic +155 [Kuznetsova] I like Kuzy, but Petkovic's serve was retarded in the opening round. Will think about it.
Hercog/Safarova - like the OVER there depending where it is set. Hercog is a competitor.Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 05-25-10, 12:41 PM.Comment -
Love petkovic here...Comment -
Well that young Russian chick played good in the first half of the 1st set, but then fell apart, Total was 17. Malisse in good shape after winning the 2nd set tie break. Suspended in the 3rd at 1-1 and deuce. Pretty sure most of RG still does not have lights which is ridiculous. I think next year is supposed to be the new centre court with a roof or at least I remember reading that. Hope the delay till tomorrow doesn't f*ck the momentum.Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 05-25-10, 02:09 PM.Comment -
Things I THINK I Know ... Wednesday, May 26th
With the rain in mind, I'm still going to map out a normal day but will only for certain book this first one just in case any action gets in.
I THINK my favorite O/U number for the day has to be Ouanna-Tsonga set at 34.5. Tsonga struggled to get by Brands in 5 sets in the opener, part of which may have been attributed to him battling a cold. Still, Ouanna will not be phased by playing his fellow countryman and friend at RG where he made a surprise run to the 3rd round last year. Both possess wicked serves and like playing big shots, so don't look for rallies to be a big part of this one. Even if the clay slows with the rain, big serves should be the order here and that should mean at least one tight set. I don't foresee a steamroll job by Tsonga here, so I THINK if Ouanna can stay in this one early, he will win a set and to me this one seems a good shot to go at least four sets which would make this number fairly easy to beat if indeed that happens. OVER 34.5.
When looking for a parlay, I start with Dulgheru in WTA. She's playing some of the best clay tennis that isn't being talked about. The Romanian busted her French Open cherry with a 3 set win over Hradecka. She now draws Bacsinszky who she beat routinely back in Warsaw just a week ago. She also beat her last fall in straights in an ITF event, so I THINK she has a good chance to advance further in her first trip at RG. For the 2nd part, I go with the might mite Olivier Rochus who is going up against the German qualifier Reister. Reister knocked off an uninspired Felciano Lopez and that doesn't exactly wow me. Rochus meanwhile should be playing with plenty of confidence having beaten Soderling about 10 days ago on dirt and withstanding the ace parade from the French qualifier Paire in the opener. Rochus has the experience edge here and while Reister does have some dirt skills as evidenced by some of his Challenger results in 2009, in a best of 5 format - I THINK I like Rochus to get the job done. Parlay pays +119.
Also, I THINK I like the Hercog-Safarova OVER at 20.5. Hercog fights hard in her matches and I THINK has legit upset potential in this one. Hercog played two tough three setters at RG last year in the main draw and cruised in her opener this year. Safarova rolled in her opener and had a nice Spring on clay with a couple QF appearances and a semifinal in Madrid. This one shapes up nice I THINK to be a possible 3 setter and even in 2, it is possible to get done.
I also THINK these dogs could bark: Benneteau at +122 & Hercog at +190.
Rain rain stay away!
Comment -
Rochus is my monster play for Wednesday. I went huge on him in his first round match when the line was generous against Paire, and he came good. I think the line is a bit generous in this one as well, thanks to Riester beating Lopez. Let's hope he comes good for us again!
Pondering whether or not I should put another few units on Benneteau...I'm pretty confident in him as well. He was the better of the two against Gulbis even before Gulbis' injury, and he should be high on confidence after that performance and with the crowd overwhelmingly in his favor.Comment -
GL
Comment -
Wow. Tsonga destroyed Ounna. I did not expect him to cruise like that even though I have him winning that quarter. Impressive. Malisse finished off his win so that is good. Looks like the rain has everything else clogged up today. Might be a good thing I only made that one play because of the rain. Rochus got railed in his opening set.Comment -
Rochus dropped the first set in his opener and came back, so I'm not too, too worried...I think.Comment -
Well since I was worried about having too much money tied up with the rain - did not make that parlay. Dulgheru won easily though. Benneteau lost, although I did not invest either because of the rain, so I will definitely go Hercog if it looks like the rain will allow it today - but pretty doubtful with how off & on things are right now.Comment -
Plus Money Project Boredom: Berdych-Vasselin o29.5 [+103]Comment -
Rochus getting crushed so far, down 0-2. At least I saved myself on one play today by not making it apparently.Comment -
I think today is finally washed out. At least it looks good for tomorrow. Very cool temps too, in the 60s. Make sure you check the order of play for tomorrow because some of the matches originally scheduled for Thursday will probably have to be moved. No way they can squeeze all the matches that need to be finished from today + tomorrow's into a day. Gonna me a maze of matches the next few days.Comment -
All I needed to do was post about today probably being done to get the rain stopped? F, why didn't someone tell me!
Comment -
Come on petkovic dam you...!!Comment -
Hercog off to a quick start with a break on Safarova. Kuznetsova looks in control late in the 3rd now. Rochus did end up losing in straights. Bad add-in idea on the parlay for me as I had been looking at Dulgheru-Isner or Dulgheru-Baghdatis and then changed my mind to try and get better odds.Comment -
Knew that 2nd set was gonna F up the Berdych-Vasselin over. 7-5, 6-1, 6-4 for 29. Stupid French bastard was up a break in the 3rd too that would have helped a ton and he choked it away.Comment -
Terrible day... especially that Tsonga and Rochus hurt. hoping for a bounceback tommorowComment -
First impressions for tomorrow before the homework:
Parlay possibilities
1. Hanescu [-435]
Schukin is a Challenger level clay courter. Hanescu when he serves well is usually a solid clay court guy against lesser competition.
2. Kohlschreiber [-280]
If the courts are dry tomorrow after today's rain, it favors the German who has a weapon in his serve [14 aces in round 1]. Seppi has never progressed past Round 2 at RG.
3. Bellucci [-540]
If he plays like he did in Round 1, Andujar is dead meat quickly.
Nothing at all intrigues me on the moneyline in WTA. The lowest chalk offers some of the bigger headcases like Ivanovic & Dementieva.
Barking Dogs
1. Ginepri [+240]
I'd like to see this price get out past +250 to seriously consider it, but Ginepri must have kissed a stripper laced with cocaine too. He seemed confident and collected in beating Querrey and has some clay legs after playing the Team Cup last week. The fast conditions can keep Ginepri in this match if his serve is producing aces. Tie breaks could loom large in this match.
2. Fish [+210]
This isn't so much a vote of confidence for Fish as it is a question mark on Ljubicic and his back which has been balky this year. When healthy, Ljubicic would be the obvious pick here. Again though if the court is dry, Fish's serve can be a weapon and keep him in sets. Another one where the larger the price gets on Fish, the better this pick is. Right now, I'd probably pass unless it gets out over +220.
3. Sanchez [+383]
France vs. France here. Sanchez has been around the block, actually she is two years older than Bartoli. She came into this tournament hot with two straight finals on clay on the ITF level. Total dartboard shot, but I dunno. I hate Bartoli.
Comment -
ljubicic serve was considerably slower against lu, fish has a lot of value hereComment -
Anytime I can fade Fatty is a good time..Comment -
ferrero at -810 is heavy chalk but great parlay play, the guy's forehand looked tremendous against cuevas he's been hot all year on clay and hes rested and healthyComment -
Things I THINK I Know ... Thursday, May 27th
2 person parlay: Kohlschreiber + Gonzalez for -129.
Ginepri +230 & Fish +205
May add some totals later on in the morning after some of these shake out.
Comment -
Looks like this parlay will be stretched out over two days. Hoping to split the Ginepri-Fish picks at worse today. Also threw something on Gabashvili last minute. Looking good right now.Comment -
I've just gone for Mahut/Melzer Over 32.5.
Fnding it hard to bet today.Comment -
Think we're done for the day. Fish might need the rain to regroup from losing this 1st set. Down 5-2. Still feel better about Ginepri of those two. Parlay stuck in limbo till tomorrow.Comment -
2 for 2 in getting play rebooted when I call it a day.
Comment -
Fish blows it serving for the 2nd set. Probably his death blow if he loses this set to go down 0-2.Comment
