EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-10, 02:06 PM

Got the parlay at least. Lots of tasty match-ups on Sunday. Knee jerk reactions here before homeworking it:

Soderling -257 for parlay purposes. Cilic had a tough time with Mayer in the last round, although I don't think he necessarily played bad. Soderling has been pretty dominant, losing just the one set to Montanes. Lots of aces for Soderling in the last round was a good sign. He'll need a big serve here. Cilic can stick with him for awhile, but if Soderling is at his best - he should survive in 4 or 5.

Tsonga +103 or so. I tipped Tsonga to win his quarter at the beginning of the tournament, so I won't back off that now. Youzhny is a quality competitor, but for whatever you want to think about Tsonga on clay, Youzhny isn't exactly some sort of special dirt baller. He's had his runs at Munich the past couple years, but outside of that is pretty much a slightly above average guy on clay. I thought if Tsonga could get a couple rounds under his belt here and build momentum, he'd have a shot with the home crowd behind him. He had to fight hard to survive round 1, but appears to be getting himself on a roll right now.

Murray/Berdych, I'll just watch. Reasons to like either one here for their respective prices. I give a slight edge to Murray because he's dealth with adversity already here and proven he can rise up. Not so sure Berdych has that in him at a Slam. He's played awfully well so far, but Isner was his biggest test and Isner just had nothing in the tank.

WTA side, will ride my Venus outright to win. She's playing really well and although Petrova is a tough customer, I like Venus to move on but don't see the need to invest in the price - unless it's a parlay addition, maybe Venus + Soderling.

Kirilenko at +180 is intriguing against Schiavone. Not sure if I will do it, but those are nice odds.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-30-10, 01:20 AM

Things I THINK I Know ... Sunday, May 30th

I THINK the total I dig the most for Sunday is found in Federer & Wawrinka. Set at 33.5, most will assume Wawrinka is going to get rolled easily as he did in Madrid earlier this month. Both have cruised through three rounds at RG, barely breaking a sweat. Wawrinka must serve solidly to keep this competitive, but there is something here that says to me that I THINK Wawrinka will play Federer a lot tighter and perhaps even swipe a set. There is a possibility this total can get OVER even in straight sets, but four sets would be a better chance.

The other total that seems tasty is Murray-Berdych set at 39.5. The OVER seems enticing, I THINK as most expect this match to be highly competitive and perhaps go the distance. Berdych's serve has been impressive this first week at RG and even with Murray's great return skills, that could mean a lot of service holds. Berdych has been broken just twice all tournament in three matches. I THINK Murray's serve is the key to an OVER here. If he can focus and hold his own on serve, then this match should be delightful and go 4 sets at minimum. So long as one of the sets can sneak in at 7-5 or 7-6, then there is a definite chance.

I am taking a day off taking sides on Sunday. There's some tremendous shots to take for sure, but I did not like any 100% enough to take. Youzhny will be a popular pick as questions surround Tsonga's health, but I still won't count out Tsonga as Youzhny is a Russian after all and never reliable in big situations. Berdych at plus odds could certainly bring a nice return against Murray, but my end thought is that Murray may take that one - but I don't like either enough to back them. Talked myself off anything WTA on Sunday. Originally liked Kirilenko at nice odds, but don't trust her enough on the big stage. Just going to hold on to the Venus future and hope she works past Petrova. I like the way Venus is playing and I THINK it's either going to be a straight forward Venus win or Petrova has some added confidence with her thriller over Rezai and takes it the distance.

**mav924** · 05-30-10, 02:45 AM

Good luck today EaglesPhan36

**VOJVODINA** · 05-30-10, 03:51 AM

Gl

**shari91** · 05-30-10, 04:00 AM

Best of luck EP

**colout** · 05-30-10, 04:09 AM

Good luck today

**Shifty107** · 05-30-10, 04:51 AM

Best of luck Ep. Both sound good.

**psulions** · 05-30-10, 06:23 AM

With you on these, best of luck.

**beefcake** · 05-30-10, 07:52 AM

I think Wawrinka is going to give fed a tough time today.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-30-10, 11:19 AM

Well Wawrinka had a chance to get a set in the 2nd, but that was that when he didn't. Venus crashes out again. Ah well.

**jayc88** · 05-30-10, 11:33 AM

tsonga retires after losing the first set 6-2
tough break for tsonga backers

**beefcake** · 05-30-10, 11:50 AM

Dam tsonga,way to give the home fans a show..Bastard...Now Im caught between a rock and a hard hedge on the russian..

**egzacto** · 05-30-10, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

Dam tsonga,way to give the home fans a show..Bastard...Now Im caught between a rock and a hard hedge on the russian..

new to tennis wagering what does that mean to the bets if you bet youzhny win or no action?

**beefcake** · 05-30-10, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by egzacto

new to tennis wagering what does that mean to the bets if you bet youzhny win or no action?

Some book require 1 set to be completed for a bet to be offical(5 dimes for example),other require 2(the greek,bookmaker),so even on parlays the 1 set rule applies,which i had the final leg(tsonga).

Recommend you play with a 1 set book,in my exp more often the case I get the benefit,although not today

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-30-10, 12:31 PM

NBC is shameful with this tape delay BS. I don't understand how the major networks think they are going to get ratings in the Internet age. Why the F do I want to watch matches that ended hours ago when you could be showing a LIVE match?! F-nuts.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-30-10, 02:36 PM

Totals have been biting my ass lately. Can tell you right now, Verdasco & Stosur on Monday will be my plays. Stosur at +290 is superb against Henin. I had Stosur marked for the finals, so I'll go with my original prediction of her winning against Henin. Should be a helluva match I hope. Winner is likely going to be considered the favorite to win the tournament I think. Henin was already that, beating Stosur would only further that thought while Stosur has somehow been under the radar still I think at this point. Win over Henin and you're leader of the pack. I know all the questions about Verdasco and his heavy schedule, but the guy has flat out proven that his fitness is superior to most .... and that certainly includes Almagro. The price is ridiculously low, but I am guessing that is due to these questions. Gonna get back on track Monday!

**beefcake** · 05-30-10, 03:14 PM

What are you guessing on youzhny/berdych?
Ill say youzhny -120

**Goat Milk** · 05-30-10, 03:15 PM

I like Verdasco A LOT, I haven't made any big plays this year in tennis, this may be one of them unless I change my mind which is still likely.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-30-10, 07:47 PM

Stosur has already gotten bought down to +280. They played a real topsy turvy match in April where Stosur won a set 6-2, but lost the others 6-4 & 6-1 to Henin. I'll wait, but if it's close to +300 - gotta go a little on it. I know I said totals were killing me the last two days, but I kinda like Djokovic-Ginepri over 33.5. Ginepri's serve has been real good this week, so even in three sets this is possible.

I still just don't see a reason not to go for Verdasco at this price. Got a nice day of rest in between his last match. Definitely worth the price to me.

**beefcake** · 05-30-10, 07:53 PM

I played all 4 dogs in the WTA just for points..I think peer is going to play really well vs serena

**shari91** · 05-30-10, 08:07 PM

The only thing that worries me about Verdasco is that damn toenail of his. If the injections/bandaging work he'll be fine and we will be getting a bonus from the books who have factored his injury concerns into the price. I think I need to do some digging before I make a play on this one. Best of luck EP!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-30-10, 11:56 PM

Things I THINK I Know ... Monday, May 31st

I THINK Justine Henin's record at RG is impeccable, 32-1 is beyond ridiculous BUT in the match against Sharapova some of those double fault issues cropped up as she finished with 10. Mostly, her serve has been good enough through the 1st week to get it done though. She faces Samantha Stosur who has been dominant outside of the one odd set where she lost her focus in the 2nd round. Stosur's serve is the absolute key to this match. If she serves with power and precision as she is capable of, I THINK she stands a chance against Henin. They played late in April with Henin prevailing in 3 sets. Stosur did not get her first serve in with enough consistency in that match, while Henin had an all-around solid game. For me, getting +295 on someone who can beat ANYONE on this surface, I THINK is insane. Maybe Henin is destined to win here, but I THINK at the price that I'll take my chance that the Aussie brings that big serve and gives herself a chance - especially if Henin is anything but her best.

I THINK Fernando Verdasco seems almost super human with his ability to withstand fatigue. His fitness seems to be at one of its highest levels ever. The big question coming into the match against Almagro is the health of his injured toe. Verdasco played a very uneven match against Kohlschreiber, but to his credit he made it through in spite of 14 double faults. His serving needs to be more crisp today, but I THINK I'd rate him a good shot against Almagro. Almagro has had an easy ride thus far at RG. His 2010 season on clay has been solid, but not spectacular. Verdasco had his amazing run in April with two tournament finals and a semifinal loss to Nadal. His May could possibly have left him with a little more gas as he lost to Melzer early in Madrid, which gave him a little extra rest going to Nice last week. Ultimately, he blew a big lead in the 3rd to Gasquet there. Some have questioned why he would have played the week leading up to the French, while most of the big boys rested up. No one knows but Verdasco, but I THINK he has shown time and time again this Spring that fatigue is not as big a factor as we expect with him. Despite playing the 4 hour marathon with Kohlschreiber, he's had some rest now and I THINK if the toe isn't limiting him ... he is a better player at this stage than Almagro. The added bonus for me is taking this one at the SBR book where they require two sets for action to stand as I THINK if the toe is limiting him, he could pull a Tsonga and retire early to save your money. Verdasco easily dispatched of Almagro in straights here last year and while no one expects a repeat, Verdasco is a tough customer whom I THINK can win this in spite of all the mitigating factors.

I would say monitor the price if you're prone to believing that the money follows any injury news as there could be a late indicator. At -130, Verdasco is my pick.

**Goat Milk** · 05-31-10, 12:01 AM

I like the over in the Djok Genepri too but what scares me off is that Genepri has never taken a set off Djok I don't think. Didn't Genepri make it to the round of 16 last year too? I could be wrong. But still I think Genepri over is very solid IMO and Djok can choke at anytime I might even sprinkle some of the +800 or so

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-31-10, 12:07 AM

I chose not to take that one, but I do like it. Ginepri's serve this week has been solid, so I would not be surprised for him to get a set. Djokovic's serve has won him points when he's gotten it in, but the double faults in his last two matches have to be a little scary for his backers. Still, he is the superior talent here for sure despite the awesome run for Ginepri. It was two years ago Ginepri made the 4th round. I think his price is appropriate. He's a long shot. Don't think anyone would cry if he choked though. GL!

**Tsonga** · 05-31-10, 06:26 AM

I am on the over for every match except nadal's

**bigjonson** · 05-31-10, 06:32 AM

EP: Always a great read. My plays Stosur & Alamgro

Good luck!!

**nicsbr** · 05-31-10, 06:34 AM

Nice write up you made me play Verdasco

**beefcake** · 05-31-10, 07:48 AM

Missed that over by .5 on the djoker...Glad you passed on it now.!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-31-10, 08:23 AM

Yeah that would have pissed me off to go 4 sets and not get that. Stosur takes Henin to a 3rd set. Hopefully this one is more competitive than the last time they played. Was worth the ride at this price at least, hopefully the ride ends at the pay window!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-31-10, 08:47 AM

Breaker breaker! C'mon Stosur, consolidate this SOB.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-31-10, 08:52 AM

So much for that. That was her chance to win this. She's still in it, but damn that would have been loverly.

**shari91** · 05-31-10, 09:01 AM

Henin's serve has flown the coop. Sammy can still do this.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-31-10, 09:02 AM

Stosur. If you don't serve this out, I'm coming to Australia to Kangaroo punch you!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-31-10, 09:08 AM

Yes! I love it when the books underestimate this girl time and time again.

**bigjonson** · 05-31-10, 09:10 AM

BOOO YAH... Stosur