EP36's Tennis Talk

**beefcake** · 11-13-10, 05:06 PM

Not the same old FED!

I wonder whoever wins on sunday it will propel either of them to the NEXT level..Soda should be winning a major and monfils should be a top 10 player..

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-13-10, 05:07 PM

Wow. That is pretty poor. Interesting final, wonder if either guy is gonna have anything left in the tank after their matches today? Monfils has had to work pretty hard all tournament. Soderling not as much until today. Over is probably what I like best here at 23.5. If Soderling gets his 1st serve in, he's been almost untouchable. Monfils has a sneaky good serve when its working. Could see two tight sets cash an over and of course Monfils has been playing three setters all tourney that would cash that ticket also. Side is a coin flip to me.

I don't think Monfils will ever be consistent enough or injury free enough to be a top 10 guy. Soderling is just an engima. He looks like he's got it figured out in Slams now, but can't seem to keep it going in other tournaments. He's another one who I think will need a perfect storm scenario to win a Slam. He can't beat Nadal in a best of five I don't think.

**beefcake** · 11-13-10, 05:15 PM

Well Kendrick the magnificent wins again...Plays nishikori in the final...I think he will be a dog to Kei...A player with 14 match win streak as a dog...I like it!!

**nicsbr** · 11-14-10, 02:23 PM

Any toughts on Kendrick - Nishikori?

**beefcake** · 11-14-10, 04:15 PM

The streak comes to an end for kendrick..

**lasker** · 11-16-10, 02:51 PM

EP, maybe you can explain this to me. Challengers match, Goran Tosic vs Cesar Ramirez. Right now Ramirez is a very slight favorite at -130, with Tosic at -110. I don't understand. Ramirez, who is relatively inexperienced with just 11 clay matches in his career, has never beaten anyone of consequence on clay. He did crush his compatriot Santiago Gonzalez on hardcourt in 2007, and Gonzalez is decent, but that was hardcourt. He lost 6-4 6-4 against Cuevas, which I guess is close enough to count for something given how good Cuevas is on clay. On clay he also lost to nobodies like unranked Piero Luisi in his last match and unranked Daniel Alejandro-Lopez a couple matches before. In his other two most recent matches he was taken to three sets by two more unranked opponents. Compare this to Tosic, who just took Prodon to two tiebreakers, is a clay-court specialist, and has beaten the likes of Navarro and Vagnozzi on this surface.

The match is taking place in Mexico, and Ramirez is Mexican. Do you think the odds indicate a fix (in favor of Ramirez) or do you think Tosic is good value at this price, or will you just avoid this one altogether? Thanks for any insights.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-16-10, 03:50 PM

I would probably avoid simply because there is not a great amount of information on either. Based on what you say there, I'd think you're leaning Tosic but would probably want a better price to take him.

**beefcake** · 11-16-10, 04:09 PM

Wow,people are betting on Wolmarans...Cant blame them since Ball has sucked Ballsack lately..

**lasker** · 11-16-10, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I would probably avoid simply because there is not a great amount of information on either. Based on what you say there, I'd think you're leaning Tosic but would probably want a better price to take him.

no, the price on Tosic seems very good to me, I'm just worried about a fix. I'm going to bet a small amount on Tosic and see what happens.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-16-10, 05:41 PM

No I meant since the other guy was -130, I would think you should be getting -105 or +100 to make it the best option. Good luck though!

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-21-10, 09:22 PM

[LONDON] RODDICK +215
This is one I said I had to play this week. Nadal has been off since October and has not exactly been superior since the US Open. Roddick worked very hard to get here to London and has more court time on the indoor surface of late. Nadal also has an iffy track record at this end of the year tournament and has the added pressure of being "the guy" here. Roddick has absolutely no pressuire on him here and should be able to play perfect idiot ball, big serve, hold and try to win in a breaker if he chooses. If Nadal doesn't serve well, Roddick will have some chances.

**Greekbet** · 11-22-10, 03:06 AM

I don t know if Roddic can play 150% of his ability ,and Nadal 50 % so then Roddic to win.If you watched him at Paris he was really unready loosing easily from sonderling if i remember well.Anyway good luck with your bet.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-22-10, 10:25 AM

At that point though, Roddick had clinched his spot in London - so it's hard to tell what he was thinking going into that match. He could have just bailed to rest more or he could have just been dominated. We'll find out. Perhaps the better shot on Roddick today is to take him to win the 1st set if you have that option. I think he has to win that set to have a shot and it might be his best chance against Rafa.

**WIZARDOFBEANTOWN** · 11-22-10, 12:14 PM

good luck got some small money on andy wins 2-1 at +450 is nice and most likely to how he will wiin! doubt he takes two in a row!like the 1st set good luck

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-22-10, 04:39 PM

Definite feeling to me that Roddick has to KO Nadal in the 2nd set or Rafa will rally. Roddick blew a break lead already, mental strength will come up big if it goes 3 and as much as I like Roddick, Rafa is the King.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-22-10, 05:06 PM

Nighty night Andy. Nice try, but I don't think Rafa is going to fold in the 3rd.

**camel** · 11-22-10, 05:15 PM

I tailed you on this EP... Rafa just needed a sniff in the 2nd set and he got it after losing a break, but he's not world no. 1 for nothing!

Still got my fingers crossed that Roddick may take this. I also took him at +3.5 for a bit of safety.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-22-10, 06:53 PM

Well taking Roddick for the 1st set panned out, so you could have split the day 1-1 with Roddick at +180 to win the opening set and +200 whatever to win the match and made a profit. No one to blame but himself. Match was Roddick's to win and he choked.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-23-10, 12:12 AM

MURRAY-FEDERER OVER 23 [-110]
Think this one goes the distance. Gut. Nut. Shut up.

**pinnerpsk** · 11-23-10, 05:35 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

MURRAY-FEDERER OVER 23 [-110] Think this one goes the distance. Gut. Nut. Shut up.

I agree. Either of them could win and it should be a shootout

**beefcake** · 11-23-10, 10:14 AM

It has a chance Ep!

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-23-10, 10:41 AM

No chance today. Federer too good.

**Goat Milk** · 11-23-10, 06:10 PM

nadal did not look too good against Roddick. hard to bet against nadal especially with the price your getting. I think Djok may actually win in straight sets but i don't know i would think nadal would be around -150

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-24-10, 12:46 AM

I took Nadal in the contest. Typical first-up after a long layoff rope-a-dope. Struggled early, showed his balls late to win. Think that one might wind up being the best of the Round Robin matches. Just have a feeling that now that Nadal has picked himself up off the mat, he's going to be focused. Still some question as to how focused Djokovic will be when it comes to playing tough matches here as he still has Davis Cup before the end of the year to consider as far as fatigue. I think whomever wins this match tomorrow is going to make the final. Real ballsy eh? LoL.

Early play for me tomorrow is Roddick-Berdych UNDER 23 at +105. Berdych is just here for the ride. Of course Roddick could still be a total doosh and not recover from choking against Nadal, but I think he'd have to play exceptionally bad ... like Kevin Kim bad.

**beefcake** · 11-24-10, 10:25 AM

Its Official: Roddick is World Class Doosh-bag...

**yisman** · 11-24-10, 10:42 AM

I don't even get the rationale of under if you're purely betting because you think Roddick dominates.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-24-10, 10:47 AM

Umm ... if he dominates, he wins in under 23 games ... would be the rationale. Why is that hard to understand? Domination usually equals less games being played. Will take the win even on the wrong side.