Things I THINK I Know ... Wednesday, May 12th
I THINK in sticking to the two person parlay formula that I prefer, one could do worse than to start with Robin Soderling. Soderling has a tough match-up against Almagro, but it is winnable. Soderling's serve - if it is working well - will be a weapon here as well as his big forehand. Almagro can also work his serve for cheap points, but again I THINK he's being given more credit for his work on dirt than his form suggests. The Spaniard is 10-7 on dirt, but has lost more often than not to the more competent players on tour - losing to Cilic, Ljubicic, Tsonga [twice], Wawrinka & Ferrero on dirt this season. Soderling is certainly in the class of those players when at his best. The Swede played well in Barcelona, making the final before crashing out to Wawrinka the week after - perhaps due to the fatigue of back to back tournaments. He's fresh here and I THINK that helps him move in in a grinding match. The other half of the parlay, I THINK fits with backing the consistent Stan Wawrinka. He's up against Leonardo Mayer who is not at home on clay, having gone just 1-2 in main draw matches this season. Mayer outlasted another clay court clunker in Benneteau in a 3 set grinder in his opener. Having spent nearly three hours on court and now playing a much better player on dirt, I THINK Wawrinka has the game to wear Mayer down. Wawrinka will need to serve much better tomorrow than he did against Granollers, but I THINK if he continues to make due on his opponents breakers [6/9] he beats Mayer. This parlay will cost you about -107.
I THINK an early match that intrigues me is Isner and Giraldo. Isner is certainly proving to doubters than he can be competitive on clay. He may have had a little fatigue or acclimation problem in the 1st set against Rochus, but then he rolled easily in the next two sets. 21 aces tell the story of why Isner has a shot against a dirt baller like Giraldo. Isner has come a long way in a short time on this surface with a credible win over Wawrinka this Spring and solid showings against players like Djokovic and Bellucci on this surface. Giraldo beat the flip flop king Kohlschreiber in three sets in his main draw opener. He's certainly got clay court skills here as he's proven on the Challenger level, but he's also one that outside of beating a tired JCF in Rome - does not have any "big" wins on clay. Having never seen the serve of Isner, I THINK I give an edge to Big John here. At just -110, a worthy shot to me if he can work his serve in this one.
O/U numbers I THINK I like: Ferrer-Baghdatis OVER 20.5. The quicker surface could aid Baghdatis in grabbing more games as it may not allow Ferrer to run down quite as many balls as usual. Baggy has done himself proud on the surface in recent weeks after not playing much on dirt in the past two years.
I THINK in sticking to the two person parlay formula that I prefer, one could do worse than to start with Robin Soderling. Soderling has a tough match-up against Almagro, but it is winnable. Soderling's serve - if it is working well - will be a weapon here as well as his big forehand. Almagro can also work his serve for cheap points, but again I THINK he's being given more credit for his work on dirt than his form suggests. The Spaniard is 10-7 on dirt, but has lost more often than not to the more competent players on tour - losing to Cilic, Ljubicic, Tsonga [twice], Wawrinka & Ferrero on dirt this season. Soderling is certainly in the class of those players when at his best. The Swede played well in Barcelona, making the final before crashing out to Wawrinka the week after - perhaps due to the fatigue of back to back tournaments. He's fresh here and I THINK that helps him move in in a grinding match. The other half of the parlay, I THINK fits with backing the consistent Stan Wawrinka. He's up against Leonardo Mayer who is not at home on clay, having gone just 1-2 in main draw matches this season. Mayer outlasted another clay court clunker in Benneteau in a 3 set grinder in his opener. Having spent nearly three hours on court and now playing a much better player on dirt, I THINK Wawrinka has the game to wear Mayer down. Wawrinka will need to serve much better tomorrow than he did against Granollers, but I THINK if he continues to make due on his opponents breakers [6/9] he beats Mayer. This parlay will cost you about -107.
I THINK an early match that intrigues me is Isner and Giraldo. Isner is certainly proving to doubters than he can be competitive on clay. He may have had a little fatigue or acclimation problem in the 1st set against Rochus, but then he rolled easily in the next two sets. 21 aces tell the story of why Isner has a shot against a dirt baller like Giraldo. Isner has come a long way in a short time on this surface with a credible win over Wawrinka this Spring and solid showings against players like Djokovic and Bellucci on this surface. Giraldo beat the flip flop king Kohlschreiber in three sets in his main draw opener. He's certainly got clay court skills here as he's proven on the Challenger level, but he's also one that outside of beating a tired JCF in Rome - does not have any "big" wins on clay. Having never seen the serve of Isner, I THINK I give an edge to Big John here. At just -110, a worthy shot to me if he can work his serve in this one.
O/U numbers I THINK I like: Ferrer-Baghdatis OVER 20.5. The quicker surface could aid Baghdatis in grabbing more games as it may not allow Ferrer to run down quite as many balls as usual. Baggy has done himself proud on the surface in recent weeks after not playing much on dirt in the past two years.
