I took Istomin earlier today. He is really sucking. Can't hold his serve for anything.
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Got one over on the bookies today. Kavcic wins in 3. No idea who bet so much on Istomin, but it just did not make sense.Comment -
nice hit!Comment -
I THINK there is another line today that I do not understand. Kirilenko at -230 over Cirstea at +190? Kirilenko has been pretty average since her Australian Open run and now switches to clay, a surface she is okay but not great on. Cirstea hasn't done much since last Summer, but did go 3-1 at this tournament a year ago in a similar spot where she had no real form coming in. Might be stupid to expect the same thing here, but I THINK it is also a bit goofy to have her as almost a 2-1 dog in this spot. I'll bite on the Romanian this morning. Yum.Comment -
I also THINK Stephane Robert at -140ish is a solid pick over qualifier Stefan Koubek. Robert has been real solid to start 2010 and in spite of more of his clay success coming at the Challenger level, I THINK he matches up well with Koubek here who isn't much more quality than a Challenger level player on this surface. Koubek does have the advantage of playing qualis here and should be better acclimated to the conditions, but so long as Robert starts strong .. I THINK he wins this.Comment -
Also like [Jeebus help me] Massu at -130 against Zverev. Massu isn't the same player he once was on this surface, but I THINK Zverev sucks on clay ... well I mean I know he does. He's a 40% winner. He'll pull a good tournament out of his ass now and again, but I'd rather bet against it.
I also wonder which Richard Gasquet shows up today. The fact that he is still a high priced favorite is ridiculous. He is a better clay court player than Rochus, but he's a better player PERIOD that Rochus and got beat by him in Miami on hard court.Comment -
Cirstea
Horrible 3rd set of breaks, but cash nonetheless.Comment -
Robert F-ed around a bit, but won in 3. Massu in control in the 2nd at 4-1 and hopefully doesn't go WTA on me. Gasquet rolling.Comment -
I THINK I kinda dig Dent-Zeballos UNDER 21.5 at -105. Dent has played I THINK three clay court matches in the past year. Zeballos is a clay court specialist. He's not always great, but on this surface and with Dent's form on clay, could be over quicker than you might expect.Comment -
Dent retired after losing the 1st set, 6-3 so that cancelled out. One more I THINK I am gonna try this afternoon. The young Aussie Nick Lindahl at +177 against Malisse. Fact is Lindahl hasn't played much on clay, but has taken to this court in making it through qualis. Malisse is just over a 50% player on clay in his career and has really only had a handful of matches in which he's had succes on this surface over the past year plus. Lindahl whopped him at home in Australia on hard court earlier this year, so this will be an interesting opportunity to see the psyche of the youngster here. I THINK the Aussie is worth a punt here as Malisse favored at -210 on probably his least effective surface is just not a good price IMO.Comment -
Mardy Fish has withdrawn from the Houston event.Comment -
that oudin over is looking good...
good call on cirstea..Comment -
Lindahl gave Malisse a better match that the score might show. He lost the 1st set 6-3, but he had multiple opportunities to get a break in the 1st set and just didn't get it done. Fade Malisse is what I'm saying.Comment -
Things I THINK I Know ... Wednesday, April 7th ...
Lukaz Kubot is a -160ish favorite against Clement this morning in Morocco. I THINK if Kubot can rediscover his form on clay that carried him early in the season, he's much better than Clement who is a 46% winner on clay in his career. The only edge for Clement is he has one match in-hand at this event already. Still, I THINK I like Kubot.
Serra-Robert O/U is 22. I THINK I like the over as Robert could trouble Serra and make that match pretty competitive.
I THINK Chela-Schwank intrigues me. Chela is about a +125 dog, but his clay form this year has been one win, one loss. He's already got a win in this tournament, so ..... Schwank has some decent form this year and is generally good on clay, but a lot of his success has been at Challenger tournaments. If he serves like he did against Daniel, even at -145ish, Schwank looks like a decent pick.
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Yo Eagles what do u think about Pavlyuchenkova? She's playing Mattek-Sands who has been terrible. Pavs is now -240 but that is down alot since last night. Pavs is ranked over 100 slots higher than Matek-Sands. The problem for me is that Mattek-Sands looks like she is better on clay courts than hard courts and I'm not sure about Pavs. Any thoughts?Comment -
I'd never pay that much for any WTA single shot, no matter who it is unless it's Serena maybe in a hard court Slam. Just looking at stats from yesterday, 13 double faults from Pavy .. yikes. I wouldn't touch the match personally, but I'd say if you like her at -240, use it in a parlay and not straight up to limit your loss if she sucks. Sands is average at -best, if you look at her clay #s, a lot of her wins are dated and at the lower ITF level. Only thing you can say about her here is she does seem to be playing pretty well through qualifying and her 1st round match, but she hasn't really faced anyone.Comment -
I agree with pretty much everything u said. I bet big on Mattek-Sands when she played Bacsinszky and lost. That really pissed me off. Pavs started off the year real strong but has settled some. She loses pretty big against the real good top players but usually does pop people like Mattek-Sands pretty good.Comment -
1 more thing. If anyone wants to take a shot on a big underdog look at Alla Kudryavtseva over Dominika Cibulkova. Kudryavtseva is 3-0 against Cibulkova. Beat her in '07, '08, and '09. In '09 she beat her in 2 sets 6-2, 6-0. All on hard courts but you never know. Cibulkova is -360 and Kudryavtseva is +300. I personally think that Cibulkova wins but 0-3 against this chick it's worth a shot. In fact in the 3 meetings Cibulkova has only won 1 set. GL everyone.Comment -
Reversing my thought process on Schwank-Chela. The more I look, the more I THINK Chela has a better shot. Chela's losses have come to Monaco in three matches on clay this season with an odd loss to Berlocq. Schwank's clay losses seem to come against veterans and the majority of his wins against lesser clay court players, I THINK Chela is my play now at +124.Comment -
Chela comes through.
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Nice hit on Chela Eagles.
Any chance you see Hewitt going down tonight?
Can't even find a live scoreboard for that crappy Houston clay court tournament.It has to be on the website I am just to blind to see it. I know livescore.com has a scoreboard but it's not a point by point type thing.Comment -
I don't see it. Hewitt did very well here in 2009. He may be rusty though in the first set, so perhaps a chance in live betting for folks to get a better price if he struggles early. I THINK I am gonna roll on the O/U at 18 in the Wozniacki-Arvidsson match at UNDER. Woz absolutely destroyed Schynder and she has beaten up Arvidsson on clay previously. Arvidsson's clay resume is less than impressive to say the least. It's a low number, but justified I think here.Comment -
I think I mad a mistake man. I have Arvidsson +6.5 to finish off a parlay. $50 for $420. Everything else has won and this is all that is left. Just checked and Wozniacki is 4-1 against her (lost the first matchup) and the score seems to always be 6-1, 6-3 or 6-2, 6-3. Thats gonna suck balls if that's all I lose. Mixed it in with other tennis matches and a couple soccer bets.Comment -
Rain in Houston geezComment -
Arvidsson loses 6-3, 6-1. I lost by 2 frggin games. Lost a damn parlay that payed me 8x my money by 2 games. She is a waste of space. She didn't even hold serve 1 single time in the 2nd set.Comment -
Things I THINK I Know .... Thursday, April 8th...
Backing Richard Gasquet is always risky. He absolutely pounded Rochus in the opener in Casablanca with a superb serve. Does this mean he's good to go? Who knows. He plays Golubev though who isn't much of a clay court presence, winning under 50% in his career on the surface. You'd be hard pressed to find someone the Kazhakstani has beat worth a damn on clay. I'd never even THINK about backing Gasquet at -325, but the O/U is set at 21 and I THINK if Gasquet has his weapons working, he can take care of Golubev early at go UNDER.
One of my favorite names to chant, Dudi Sela *clap,clap,clap,clap,clap* Dudi Sela is in action against clay specialist Zeballos in Houston. Sela has one of the worst clay court records among ATP players that I have found with just a 38% winning percentage. Zeballos is too rich for my blood at -245 ... but I THINK Zeballos + Gasquet in a parlay = MO-NEY!
That parlay you can get for about -130.
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I like it Eagles
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I also THINK if you want an even bigger payout, you might throw Hewitt in there - but beware since he hasn't played since Australia. Still, he should be way too classy for Devvarman.
Melanie Oudin is playing tonight, but I THINK there's no OVER train at a total of 21.5 for her match.Comment -
Gasquet destroys Golubev: 6-1, 6-1.Comment -
Dam hes on fire....too bitch slaps back to back.....Comment -
He plays Hanescu next. Will be interested to see the price. Gasquet holds a 2-0 head-2-head, but both are from two years ago or more. I'm guessing Gasquet will be back into more of a -160 to -180 type favorite perhaps. Not really sure as both those guys can beat anyone when they're on - on clay. Still not ready to trust Gasquet unless it's a cheaper price. The higher his price, the more I think he'll F it up. Houston tourney is going to be interesting today. High winds.Comment -
Good call on the gasquet match Eagles. This is a good tournament for him to get his confidence back. If there are some decent prices from now until the weekend for Gasquet I might get in on the action on him. Agree Hewitt wins tonight if they ever get the match in. It's taking forever with the bad weather. I went all in with my sbr points on Hewitt because I don't want to back him with real money at -400 plus hahaComment -
That is the one thing that sucks about the Houston matches today, lots of heavy favorites.
Zeballos just consolidated his break to open the 2nd. He should roll and cash the 2nd leg of the parlay.Comment -
Hewitt is getting killed.Down 5-1 in the first setComment -
Think that was just court acclimation. He's in control in the 2nd.Comment
