EP36's Tennis Talk

beefcake · 03-24-10, 07:58 PM

Was just about to say the same thing...+100,hard to pass up when alot of womens totals are skewed juice wise...

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-10, 08:31 AM

Today, I THINK I am curious about the O/U for Lacko-Berrer. It's set at 23.5 which indicates the books believe a 3 setter is in the works. The juice however favors the UNDER, which makes it appear that the public is favoring 2 sets. One thing I do know, Lacko has been battling deep into matches all season. Not sure I'll bite, but I THINK the 3 set theory may be correct.

I THINK Kevin Anderson at -125 against Mello intrigues me. Mello beat a pair of guys more known for their clay court prowess in the qualis here. Mello's hard court record is definitely misleading as he's won 64% of his career matches on the surface, but a lot of that action has come in Challengers/Qualifiers in recent times. A closer look and you'll see he's beaten up on his fellow South American clay court types on hard courts to pad the record over the past few years. Anderson may have had one of his better wins at this tournament in 2008 when he KO'ed Djokovic. I THINK I'd take my chances with the South African if he brings the big serve.

I THINK I can't believe Ana Ivanovic is still -230 against anyone at this stage of her career, but I THINK her match is a no touch as Parmentier is a pretty poor hard court performer.

I THINK Leonardo Mayer won't be at plus money for much longer going against Mardy Fish tonight. I THINK there's a good reason for that.

beefcake · 03-25-10, 09:23 AM

Yeah how ivanovic is that price is beyond me..

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-10, 11:29 AM

Started off with a winner. OVER hits for Lacko-Berrer and it was only -105.

I THINK one I am liking more for this afternoon is the young Turk, Ilhan, over Cuevas at just -125. Cuevas retired last week at Indian Wells with a back injury. Backs are tricky and I don't ever THINK they go away quickly. Cuevas is more of a clay court guy anyway. Ilhan has a solid record on hard courts, but being a youngster a lot are in qualis ... still with the injury concern, I THINK Ilhan is a bargain. He does need to work on his serve though if he is ever going to be anything more than a "young guy with promise."

beefcake · 03-25-10, 11:32 AM

I concur on Ilhan...

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-10, 11:46 AM

I THINK my WTA "shot" today may be the OVER 21 with Date-Krumm & Petrova. DK beat Petrova in Sydney and took out Chakvetadze in a usual WTA Maalox masher yesterday in 3 sets. Petrova has struggled in the 1st round at this tournament at times and in general in 1st rounders this season. I THINK she'll get her revenge today, but I THINK it might take awhile. Start time is soon.

Kevin Anderson looking good in the 2nd set against Mello, up 3-0 and looking to close.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-10, 11:59 AM

Anderson finishes Mello: 6-3, 6-1.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-10, 03:23 PM

Petrova was truly gifted in her 2nd set. I left the scoreboard with her up 4-2 and serving. Somehow goes to a tie break and cashes the over.

JNic · 03-25-10, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Anderson finishes Mello: 6-3, 6-1.

this was really surprising, if mello got this win he woulda been in the top 100. too bad he couldnt even touch andersons serve

Boner_18 · 03-25-10, 03:49 PM

Yeah I was on Mello. Thought the recent clay win over Bellucci was a good sign and his title on hard... blah blah blah... oh well.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-10, 04:53 PM

Ilhan crushes Cuevas 6-2 in the opening set. Was going to play Mayer later, but if Ilhan hits I think I may stop at 4-0 today. Been a LOOONG time since I went unbeaten with that many plays in tennis.

Boner_18 · 03-25-10, 05:00 PM

If it's a play it's a play!! Keep rolling.

For what it is worth I put 5 points on Fish, I think he wins (improved some at Indian Wells) but wouldn't take him for real money unless the line was +100.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-10, 05:03 PM

Well I wasn't totally sold on it + it is a chance for revenge from earlier this year when Fish got bageled in a set by this kid.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-10, 05:24 PM

Ilhan rolls: 6-2, 6-2.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-10, 08:57 PM

Things I THINK I Know ... Friday, March 26th.

I THINK I don't trust Tommy Robredo or Julien Benneteau at their prices. I THINK Llodra at +250 or more is a bomb worth taking against Ferrer.

Don't know that I will get to post much this weekend as I am headed to Houston for the NCAAs! Happy hunting to you all!

beefcake · 03-25-10, 11:36 PM

have fun!

Boner_18 · 03-26-10, 07:04 AM

Enjoy the BBall EP. Will be missing you insights. I have a lot of dogs marked today but don't know if I can pull the trigger on any.

Bellucci
Becker
Stakhovsky
Troicki

Gonna try to hash it out this morning.

beefcake · 03-28-10, 09:59 PM

hope you played that over 19.5 in the janko match EP.youre right anything at 20.5 seems the be the green light for the over.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-30-10, 08:27 AM

Things I THINK I Know .... Tuesday, March 30th ....

I THINK I am really interested to see how this Almagro-Bellucci match pans out today. Almagro is the more accomplished of the two and has better recent form, but I do love me some Bellucci. Neither is at their best on this surface, but I THINK this deep in an ATP 1000 event, I THINK I'd side with Almagro at -135.

Jeebus help me, I THINK I like Mardy Fish at +110. The Fish has been on a roll this tournament, while Youzhny was fortunate to survive a struggle with Wawrinka yesterday. I THINK Fish's serve is the X-factor. If it's on like it's been thus far, I THINK Fish prevails.

I THINK I really, really dig the Soderling-Gonzalez O/U at 22.5 ... I THINK the OVER is a good shot.

I THINK the Cilic-Verdasco price reflects the coin flip nature of that match. Verdasco is the dog. Cilic the favorite, but it really could go either way.

Some great match-ups today. I THINK there may be one "big" surprise from a moderately priced dog. JCF? Gonzo? Berdych? I dunno, but I THINK if you can find it ... play it.

beefcake · 03-30-10, 09:24 AM

yeah fish looks tasty today

EaglesPhan36 · 03-30-10, 04:00 PM

So far, so good. Almagro won. OVER now assured in the Soderling-Gonzo match. Fish retired and I placed that one at a book where it needs to go full for action [phewwwww]. Thinking about going Cilic after all at -145. He's been consistent SO FAR. Both Verdasco & Cilic come and go, but I'll say Cilic stays on enough again today.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-30-10, 07:34 PM

Cilic indeed does suck on a match to match basis. Looking at Federer-Berdych. O/U at 21 with high chalk on the OVER. I THINK I am on it. Berdych usually gives Fed competitive sets at least. If Florent freaking Serra takes him to two tie breaks, I'd hope Berdych can go 7-5, 6-4 at least.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-30-10, 10:01 PM

Nice easy cash on the Fed-Berdy over. Berdy may still pull off the upset.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-31-10, 08:26 AM

Things I THINK I Know .... Wednesday, March 31st ...

I THINK Nadal has pretty much owned Tsonga, but I THINK that the sets are usually competitive. O/U is at 23. Tsonga's serve has been pretty stout this week & Nadal is playing some good tennis. I THINK I might take a shot at the Over because with Tsonga if he's just being lazy for a set, you can usually get a 7-5 or 7-6 result at least once.

I THINK there is not much of an option in the Roddick-Almagro match. Almagro has a tough match against Bellucci and fatigue could be a factor today. O/U is set at 21.5 with the juice favoring the Over right now. If Almagro can keep it together in the 1st set, that might have a chance. But most of the lines for this match appear unplayable, I THINK.

I THINK it will be interesting to see where Wozniacki stacks up against Henin. I THINK it might be another buzzsaw win for Henin.

I THINK I cannot remember the last time I saw the Bryans as favorites in the -300 range. Today they are -320. Might be worth a toss into a parlay.

beefcake · 03-31-10, 10:30 AM

youre right about the bryans.-320 is great value..

EaglesPhan36 · 03-31-10, 04:45 PM

Bryans getting killed in the 1st set.

Tsonga · 04-01-10, 07:59 AM

Bryans got smoked!

EaglesPhan36 · 04-01-10, 08:35 AM

Things I THINK I Know ... Thursday, April 1st ...

I THINK there is no way in hell I would back Venus Williams at -405. Bartoli like most WTA-types is a match-by-match stomach twister, but I THINK for +300, that's not a bad way to go.

I THINK Clijsters-Henin should be interesting to see. Clijsters won the three setter in Brisbane earlier this year. I THINK it's hard to not go for Henin at plus money. Say what you will about Henin's serve, but I THINK she always finds a way to give herself a shot.

I THINK I'm still waiting to see if Verdasco gets a better price. I still THINK the public will be on Berdych after he beat Federer and in looking back at Berdy's win over Verdasco last week. I THINK this is a possible revenge spot, but I THINK you need solid plus odds to look at Verdasco.

jashtonrich · 04-01-10, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Things I THINK I Know ... Thursday, April 1st ...

I THINK there is no way in hell I would back Venus Williams at -405. Bartoli like most WTA-types is a match-by-match stomach twister, but I THINK for +300, that's not a bad way to go.

I THINK Clijsters-Henin should be interesting to see. Clijsters won the three setter in Brisbane earlier this year. I THINK it's hard to not go for Henin at plus money. Say what you will about Henin's serve, but I THINK she always finds a way to give herself a shot.

I THINK I'm still waiting to see if Verdasco gets a better price. I still THINK the public will be on Berdych after he beat Federer and in looking back at Berdy's win over Verdasco last week. I THINK this is a possible revenge spot, but I THINK you need solid plus odds to look at Verdasco.

would you take venus -4.5 against bartoli also what are your thoughts on roddick/nadal

EaglesPhan36 · 04-01-10, 09:00 AM

Tough call on the handicap with Venus. If she shows up, certainly she can cover that with ease as with her demolition of Radwanska. It's kind of a gut feeling for me that she might be in for one of her struggles today. Roddick-Nadal, I'd probably stick with the O/U in that one if it's set at a decent number. I see 22.5 at Pinnacle. I'd tend to go Over on that since Roddick has a serve that should keep the sets competitive even if it's just two.

jashtonrich · 04-01-10, 09:26 AM

thxs for the insight i was looking at the challenger series igor sijisling and samuel sloth it seems the favs have covered thus far they both play well on clay and they have both won money over the last 4 weeks betting rating wise with igor leading +145 to +99 but over 52 weeks igor +58 to -7 for sam so i think there is some rrom to play igor at -170 what are your thoughts

beefcake · 04-01-10, 10:34 AM

Venus is at the stage of her career where she has up and down spurts I think,wins big then plays like A$$.
Bartoli certainly is capable of winning vs her if her game is on.
Henin at + money? I will always take that!! Henins mental game is the best on tour.

Jas,I was looking at the sloth match last night as well,I just think in general casue in these challenger matches when the best ranked players in the tourneys are all over 100+ then upsets abound,be careful

EaglesPhan36 · 04-01-10, 12:11 PM

Yeah I had no clue on that Challenger. I generally won't play those unless I know some names in it.

Totolover1409 · 04-01-10, 03:51 PM

Like Henin with the plus money.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-05-10, 02:11 PM

I THINK I am confused by the large money support for Istomin today. Klavic is another youngster with some decent promise on clay. All I can THINK here is that people are weighing in far too much on the head-2-head where Istomin is 2-0, both on hard courts. Otherwise, this match seems fairly even on this surface. Both played plenty of Challenger level matches on clay, but it's Klavcic who has had better success in the past year in that area. Gimme a shot on the Slovak.