EP36's Tennis Talk

**Duchous** · 03-12-10, 06:56 PM

I was not sure about Sela but you convinced me to bet on him....

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-13-10, 01:29 PM

Curious to see Ancic and Benneteau today. Not a whole lot to like with the prices today. Serra & Chardy would be the big dogs I might nibble at, but nothing more than long shot chances.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-14-10, 12:15 PM

Things I THINK I Know .... Sunday, March 14th

Thiemo de Bakker at +185 against Tipsarevic is intriguing. They played in Chennai in January and Tipsy won 7-5, 7-5. Tipsarevic has the one big scalp of Murray in Dubai, but otherwise has been and off & on proposition on the surface. de Bakker has a game on court already and popped out 11 aces and won 84% of the points off his 1st serve. He'll need a similar performance, but I THINK he might have a shot.

Lots of good matches today. Nalbandian-Melzer. Blake-Ferrer. Mathieu-Lopez. Karlovic-Almagro. They all look to be around 50-50 chances. I THINK I could take Blake on this surface as a dog, but it appears to be playing a bit slow so Ferrer has a good chance too. Watching Mathieu in his 2nd match back should give you an idea of where he's at. He crushed Becker, but Lopez will be tougher. Nalbandian seems to be healthier and I THINK he can outlast Melzer. Karlovic is the favorite over Almagro at -150. Karlovic has rarely done more than get a win and a loss at Indian Wells. Almagro got his first win here in Round 1 against Zverev. I THINK this one is hard to call.

**KingKolzig** · 03-14-10, 01:10 PM

I took de bakker. match starts in 10 minutes. also took gruel on a tip from LT Profits, i hope to sneak out one of these

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-14-10, 02:27 PM

Tipsarevic retired in the first. Refunded money. If de Bakker didn't get broken right back after going up 3-1, they might have been able to get a set in.

By the way, Jankovic OVER train hit yesterday. Line was at 20 games. I am tracking her and Oudin in that category. I believe the OVER will hit for Jankovic in at least 60%. Oudin as a younger player, not quite sure yet. She can steamroll people when she's on, but her serve is average or lower so she can be broken. We'll see how it pans out.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-14-10, 02:49 PM

Decided Lopez over Mathieu. I think Becker was just terrible. Mathieu has a good head-2-head, but most have come on surfaces other than hard courts and were two-plus years ago. F-Lo sucked losing in Dubai, but he's 7-2 on hard courts this season. We'll see.

Lopez now +101. Money going on Mathieu. Now I really like Lopez.

**beefcake** · 03-14-10, 05:53 PM

played lopez as well..

**KingKolzig** · 03-14-10, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by KingKolzig

I took de bakker. match starts in 10 minutes. also took gruel on a tip from LT Profits, i hope to sneak out one of these

my books counts any match that begins. 2-0

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-14-10, 06:38 PM

What book is that?

Lopez wins. 2nd one in this tournament where public money sent the price of the player I liked into dog territory. Nice!

**beefcake** · 03-14-10, 06:41 PM

nice winner! yeah which book?

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-14-10, 09:32 PM

Also have Blake tonight. Whipped Ferrer in the 1st and now up a break in the 2nd. Smoooooth.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-14-10, 09:39 PM

I THINK I dig the Roddick-Lu OVER 20.5 for a final wager for the evening. Lu played him tough to 23 games on a faster indoor court in Memphis in two sets. And played him to 23 the only other time they met in two sets. He should have confidence and if he can hold serve, I dig it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-15-10, 09:16 AM

Things I THINK I Know ... Monday, March 15th

Thomaz Bellucci may be a steal today even at -155 against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who is being over valued for his win over Cilic I THINK. The youngster has beaten GGL both times they played, once on an indoor hard surface and once on clay. GGL does have two matches in hand at Indian Wells already having beaten Lacko who choked away his opportunity and then against what looked like a disinterested Cilic. Certainly true that the Brazilian is still learning this surface, but had this match come before GGL won in the first couple of rounds - Bellucci surely would have been more than a -200 favorite I believe. He had a walkover against Moya, so he has yet to get into match conditions here ... but if he starts fast, I THINK he wins.

I THINK taking Juan Carlos Ferrero -3 games might be wise against Juan Monaco. JCF has already owned Monaco on his preferred surface of clay this season. Transferring onto a hard surface only hinders Monaco who is a .500 player on the surface, while JCF is pretty much adept on all surfaces.

I THINK Isner-Querrey is going to be fun to watch, but nothing that great to bet on unless you want to go in on the OVER at the high number of 25.5. They played a fun 3 set match in Memphis that had tie breaks in the first two sets with Querrey winning 6-3 in the end. Isner had his chances in that one, but faltered. Does he get revenge tonight? He's the better price, but Querrey might be playing better still.

**beefcake** · 03-15-10, 09:19 AM

jankovic over is 20.5 ....and erranis price is dropping like a rock,no surprise there..

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-15-10, 09:29 AM

Oooh thanks for pointing that out on Jankovic. I have to remember to at least look at WTA every once in a while. Will track the over again. Looking at some of Errani's matches on hard courts. She battles. Jankovic has won 6 matches on hard courts this year, four have gone easily past this number. Errani's serve blows, but so does Jankovic's mostly.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-15-10, 03:50 PM

Debating the Over 19.5 for Nadal-Ancic. Nadal took Schuettler 6-4, 6-4. Ancic has played two three set matches. I think it's one or the other - Ancic stays competitive and loses along those lines or Nadal massacres him.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-15-10, 09:14 PM

Jankovic OVER train rolls on and it appears she'll go down again. LT Profits with the nice pick on Errani.

**loyd** · 03-16-10, 12:10 AM

seems like she heard u and wanted to prouve u wrong

**beefcake** · 03-16-10, 12:28 AM

dam I really do HATE jankovic,not her overs but I just cant stand the way she plays..

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-10, 07:14 AM

Things I THINK I Know .... Tuesday, March 16th

Lopez and Soderling is going to be interesting. Soderling is still the better player, but when Lopez has his serve pumping aces like he did against Mathieu, he can stay with lots of players on this sort of surface. At +240, his price is probably labelled about right considering Soderling's start to 2010 has been solid. I THINK I might look at the handicap for Lopez. If the O/U is set at 23 or less, I THINK it has a shot yo go over.

I THINK James Blake at over -200 against Almagro is horrible. I THINK I would take an interest in Almagro at +200 or more before his price falls. Blake ripped up Ferrer in the opener, but you have to remember Ferrer was coming in off the Davis Cup play on clay on a short turn-around. That was a great spot for Blake to get the win. Almagro transitioned back to hard court much easier. He played very steady in his first two matches here and isn't a mug on hard courts. although strangely enough he might be better suited to win this at a major.

I THINK I can't wait to see what the O/U is for Peer-Jankovic this evening. I THINK any time it's set less than 21, it should be played as an OVER with her current form.

I THINK Rainier Schuettler is playing the Sunrise Challenger after he played thru qualis and a 2nd round loss to Rafael Nadal at Indian Wells. That's a HUSTLER. Chela is his opponent. He lost in the opening round at Indian Wells to Hanescu. Chela owns a 2-0 advantage, but those came 5 years ago. I THINK this is an interesting one to see the result. Schuettler -130, Chela -110.

**Boner_18** · 03-16-10, 08:49 AM

I'm not gonna touch the Blake line. Normally I have him on auto-fade but his form is improving, perhaps it is the new coach. In fact if he is a big enough dog I will take a piece against Murray who could serve 40% at any given instance and has mental issues of his own.

Don't really see anything today. Wanted to convince myself to take Montanes but though he has won a bunch this year and has great YTD stats he has yet to face any really stiff competition. Might look at some handicaps and totals but I am trying not to stray to far from straight up money lines. GL EP.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-10, 08:54 AM

Thing for me on Blake is he's still a stiff as a big favorite against legit competition and I don't think the price is warranted outside of books knowing he is a "name." Big money apparently on Schuettler as the line is now -165.

Jankovic-Peer at 21.5. A no-touch, but I'd still tend to favor the over as this is likely a 3 setter at +100.

Lopez-Soderling O/U is 22.5.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-10, 03:50 PM

I THINK I am going with the OVER at 20 with Tsonga and Montanes. Something still doesn't seem right about Tsonga despite his dominance. The aces aren't coming off his racket at a high rate and his serve just seems slightly off as he only got in 47% of his 1st serves. If he has trouble again, Montanes may be able to get some points off that 2nd serve and keep the sets a little tighter.

It's even odds now. Just need one set to go 7-5 or 7-6. Not sure if Montanes can do that on serve, but Tsonga sometimes seems content with trading service games and then picking it up in the tie break or late in the set. Worth a shot.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-10, 04:04 PM

Missed the window on that Tsonga bet. Instead Schuettler at the Sunset Challenger. Price wobbled around and came back down lower than it was this morning. Fatigue could get him, but I prefer to think better form pushes him through.

Was able to get on that Tsonga one after all. Probably get F-ed because of that.

**beefcake** · 03-16-10, 06:56 PM

I played the janko over,couldnt pass up the + money on the over..

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-10, 07:05 PM

Me too.

Tsonga over gets done easy since Montanes won the 1st set. Tsonga wins in 3. Schuettler was pretty bad. He got to serve to even the match in the 2nd set and got broke. Wound up losing 2nd set tie breaker. Evens out the challenger I won this morning I suppose.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-16-10, 08:01 PM

Jankovic finally found a serve worse than hers.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-17-10, 12:09 AM

Bags took Fed to the hilt. Over won easy, Fed trying to win now at 6-5.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-17-10, 09:46 AM

Florent Serra at the Sunrise Challenger today at Noon ET over Becker. Price is -150, but I THINK he's the easy play. Serra isn't superb on this surface record-wise, but he has battled some of the better players real tough including losing to Berdych in 3 sets this past week at Indian Wells. Becker has been pretty poor in 2010, getting killed by Mathieu at Indian Wells last.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-17-10, 10:48 AM

Serra now at -125, so I am in. We'll see how the price swing works.

**loyd** · 03-18-10, 01:26 AM

damn this Djakovic! he was the favorite yesterday but he los 2-0 like an amateur! i never thought there was horrible bad beats in tennis too

**Boner_18** · 03-18-10, 07:16 AM

Tennis is full of bad beats.. aka upsets.

**loyd** · 03-19-10, 12:16 AM

Djokovic was born in 1987 and lost against a guy from 1979??? that guy could be his father! i cant believe a 31 year old man moves faster and hits harder than a 22 year old boy.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-19-10, 12:55 PM

I THINK the Roddick-Robredo UNDER at 22 seems solid. Soderling at +168, I THINK is a decent dog against Murray. Soderling has been more impressive this week and his serve could carry him.

Jankovic Total is 21.5, which again kind of puts it in that tweener territory of avoid and watch. I think 20.5 is the auto play on the over. Against Stosur, I would think the total could go either way. If Stosur's serve is working, the over could be good. If it's not, Jankovic could roll with her newfound confidence this week.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-19-10, 05:30 PM

Roddick UNDER cashes at 21. Jankovic OVER train appears derailed since she has found her game.