EP36's Tennis Talk

**dlweaver** · 02-22-10, 06:00 PM

I nearly played De Los Rios but decided to go with Voracova tonight.... might wanna check that match out

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-22-10, 06:35 PM

I'll avoid it. Wouldn't want to jinx it for you, since I blow chunks.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-22-10, 07:01 PM

Updated Record: 20-30-1 (-10.99)

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 12:12 AM

Play #52: [ATP - Dubai] Julien Benneteau +115
This seems to easy to take Benneteau at this price. Why is Robredo the favorite? He's in horrible form. Benneteau is in solid form. Fatigue a factor? Maybe, but can't pass up this price for a player who not only is playing better but at this stage in their careers, may be better.

Play #53: [ATP - Dubai] Lukas Lacko +235
Lacko is an up & comer who has the game to trouble Youzhny on the outdoor surface. Couple in that the Russian is not 100% and this one is a fabulous price to me. Youzhny has withdrawn from two tournaments this year, so if you have a book that takes action after one set and gives you the advancee as the winner, might be a good shot for you here. Youzhny is capable on hard courts, but is better on an indoor court. He had some good results in Dubai, but crashed out in the 1st round in two straight years. Lacko's key is getting his first serve in. If he does, he can make a run.

**Ace_of_Spades** · 02-23-10, 01:59 AM

Like Benny myself. I hope its not a trap. I don't think it is.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 08:36 AM

What a f-ing shocker. Benneteau is getting housed in the 1st set. The tennis Gods f-ing hate me.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 08:42 AM

Updated Record: 20-31-1 (-11.99)

Broken to start the 2nd. Moving on. FU Benneteau.

**Netprofit** · 02-23-10, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by Ace_of_Spades

Like Benny myself. I hope its not a trap. I don't think it is.

it is exactly a trap - i had benny too

**saeed.anwar1942** · 02-23-10, 08:56 AM

both french finalists will go out in the first round

**cuteboy86hi** · 02-23-10, 09:00 AM

with robredo i have no luck....i pick him i loose i pick against him i loose

**Boner_18** · 02-23-10, 09:28 AM

Bummer. Didn't watch, can't tell is Robredo won or Benneteau lost. Would like to find out for Robredo's next round.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 09:37 AM

I think Benneteau was piss poor. Just look at the serving stats.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 09:48 AM

Play #54: [ATP - Dubai] Tsonga/Llodra OVER 22.5 (-112)
This dropped from 23. I favor Tsonga on the outdoor surface and Llodra may be jet lagged coming in, but Tsonga also had an illness from his last match that could carry over. So with the knowledge of a tit mouse, I think all the factors even out and this will be a drawn out match or someone quits and I get no action. Fade away.

**cappinthepigs** · 02-23-10, 09:52 AM

It'll be o.k. I had Benny's miserable ass this morning too. I like Llorda here if he can keep that serve going. Either he wins or my Underdog picks are 0-4!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 11:11 AM

Wow perfect call on someone quitting. No action for Play #54. Llodra retires.

**cappinthepigs** · 02-23-10, 11:24 AM

Kills my action on the +3.5 and +310 ML too. Oh well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 11:43 AM

Play #54: [PARLAY] Verdasco/Monaco/Russell +105
Verdasco & Monaco have pretty straight forward matches against Fognini & Alberto Martin. Verdasco should be keen to get back in the win column after crashing out last week following his San Jose win. He's competent enough on dirt. Monaco is in his usual solid form on clay and has what it takes to beat Martin who had to go through qualis to get into the main draw. Russell draws a bit of a rejuvinated Zverev, but the German despite getting on track last week with some wins has been hapless on outdoor hard courts losing his last 10 and winning just 42% on the surface in his career. Russell is a tenacious guy who fights till the end. Although a lot of his outdoor experience has been at the Challenger level, he has proven to be pesky against tougher opponents - 3 sets vs. Berdych last week and he took a set off Del Potro in Australia.

**KingKolzig** · 02-23-10, 12:25 PM

WTF was Benneteau asleep this morning? That guy will never burn me again. Im like 9-6 following your picks ep36 but im crossing this guy off my list

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 01:50 PM

If you find someone with shittier capping skills and/or luck in tennis, let me know. Lacko was serving for the 2nd set and the match and got broke. Now in the 3rd and Youzhny is rolling him. I mean c'mon, aren't I due something besides a continual ass raping?

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 02:17 PM

Updated Record: 20-32-1 (-12.99)

Only way I could have been more pissed was taking Lacko on the handicap at +4. That would have looked solid heading into a 3rd set on even ground and then Youzhny wins 6-1. Just another day of losing, yay!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 02:59 PM

Another one. Russell serving for the match. Broken and lost.

I'm done with this thread. Embarrassing is too kind of a word to use on this. It's obvious I don't know shit and I'm throwing away too much of my profits from other sports with a POS record like this.

**Jrod124** · 02-23-10, 03:31 PM

Dude are a good capper in this sport, I read your writeups and u know what your talking about. Just keep at it, u are just unlucky. Youzhny and Zverev rallying from breaks down in a set? Thats freaking weird dude!

HEAD UP!

**Boner_18** · 02-23-10, 03:37 PM

Yeah man. Keep at it! Don't be afraid of a fave once in a while. Cap some statistics and try to take the emotion out. I like your picks and insight so come back ASAP.

**cappinthepigs** · 02-23-10, 03:46 PM

I agree with all the above. Even being a newbie myself, I find you insights very useful. You're spot on on all of the matches, just the results end up being wrong. That's not because you didn't handicap them correctly. Hang in there, you'll be kicking all of our asses before you know it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 05:25 PM

Appreciate the words. I'm just gonna keep this thread then as kind of a diary of thoughts and hopefully that helps someone.

Juan Monaco
Monaco has played some very uneven sets in the past couple of weeks. Martin is through here from the qualis. Just a feeling that this might be a sloppy match between Monaco who is expected to do well and Martin who isn't at his age. Monaco might scuffle a little, so if Martin serves well, he may be able to churn out two 6-4 sets or a 7-5, 6-3 type result. Think the total at 19.5 might be a little low. So Over seems possible.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 06:25 PM

James Blake
Blake has to be one of the most fascinating tennis players to follow. He's personable and easy to like and you just find yourself rooting for the guy, until he f*cks you out of a lot of money when you back him. Blake plays for the first time since his solid match and LOSS to Andy Roddick at Memphis. What do we expect from Mr.Blake? He should come out and play well. He has played well at this tournament in the past and draws a 1st round opponent in Taylor Dent who possesses similar talents - hard serve, bombs away on the forehand, but inconsistent play at many inopportune times. Dent has been a mixed bag in 2010. He's played good enough to stay in most sets against most opponents, but manages to choke. Sound familiar? The O/U is set at 22.5 and I think that is about right and a good place for maybe looking at the over. If both hold their serves well, they're capable of playing a 6-4, 7-5 or tie break opener. With the way both run hot and cold, three sets is a fair possibility in which the over would have the best shot.

**dlweaver** · 02-23-10, 08:30 PM

so you aren't making any more plays or what?

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 09:21 PM

Just gonna blog about tennis and what I see. As you can see with the writing above, I still show which way I lean toward certain bets on certain matches. Gonna do my first version of "The Talk" for tomorrow and see if it brings me enjoyment and maybe some useful information. I just decided not to saddle myself with saying so and so +250 is my play or whatever. Take it for what it's worth.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 11:29 PM

Hope you enjoy any insight I might be able to provide. I'm doing this to try and sharpen my skills and get more in-depth in a sport I really enjoy, but have sucked balls at capping in 2010. Good luck on the courts!

Welcome to THE TALK for Wednesday, February 24th

PART I: DUBAI
Tommy Robredo
Is Tommy turning a corner with his win over Benneteau on Tuesday? Remains to be seen as the Spaniard had lost 4 out of his last 5 matches before yesterday. Benneteau seemed flat and perhaps fatigued from his run in Marseilles and Robredo took full advantage. Melzer beat Bolelli with ease and proved a big serve with 11 aces. He's been pretty useful this season with nice runs on the indoor courts in Marseilles and Rotterdam. Overall, the outdoor hard surface though is not his best as he's a 50% career winner on it. I'm not ready to annoint Robredo recovered from his rough run, but the price isn't too steep to take if he's ready to return to form. I think if Melzer had a better record on the outdoor hard courts, the price would be ripe for the plucking. Edge to Robredo.

Big Chalk
Cilic, Murray, Djokovic & Davydenko all sport moneylines over -1000! Insanity. Don't see any of them being more than a dartboard shot, although Troicki went perfect might give Djokovic a run. Two other more moderate dogs on the board are Bjorn Phau at +360 against Youzhny and Ljubicic at +255 against Tsonga. Youzhny would be done in this tournament if Lukas Lacko had a better serve. Lacko held a one set advantage and had the opportunity to serve the Russian out in the 2nd, but choked at 5-4 and then won just one more game the entire match. Phau retired in his last tournament and Youzhny is still not 100%. That seems like a match only a masochist would like to bet on. Ljubicic at his best can trouble Tsonga who had an illness in his last tournament where he crapped out earlier that expected. He looked decent on Tuesday winning a set from Llodra before his comrade retired. Tsonga though didn't have quite the pop on his serve that he is capable of, so who knows if he's still not feeling the effects of his illness. He still won 80% on 1st serve and 70% on 2nd, so he was still good - but only 2 aces. Ljubicic wasn't overly impressive beating Hernych in three sets and he's done nothing against op tier players this season. He'll be a popular longshot, but Tsonga should prevail. Over might be worth a taste if it's set no worse than 22.5 or 23. I think the chalk is gonna do damage on Wednesday for the most part, especially the ridiculously priced ones.

By the way, the chalk parlay of Cilic, Murray, Djokovic & Davydenko is around -300 or slightly less. Not too shabby for what should be relatively easy money if you're into taking that risk.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-23-10, 11:57 PM

Seriously. Both the Monaco & Blake overs hit. Not making them "official" plays I guess payed off.

**Jive** · 02-24-10, 12:14 AM

You've talked me into Robredo. I was on the fence about possibly taking Melzer with the better payout, but I didn't realize he still struggles so much outdoors. In three matches on hardcourts outside, Melzer is 0-7 in sets against Robredo (though only one of those matches has been in the last 3 years).

I think Robredo is a good call.

**Vesuvius** · 02-24-10, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

By the way, the chalk parlay of Cilic, Murray, Djokovic & Davydenko is around -300 or slightly less. Not too shabby for what should be relatively easy money if you're into taking that risk.

Was thinking about this, probably won't though.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-24-10, 11:59 AM

THE TALK continued for Wednesday, February 24th

PART TWO: ACAPULCO & DELRAY BEACH
DELRAY BEACH
Some interesting match-ups in play today in Florida. Mardy Fish struggled some against Rochus before getting the free pass when Rochus pulled up lame. He faces a rejuventated Mischa Zverev who all of a sudden cannot lose after starting off the year with losses that ran his streak to seven tournaments without winning in round one. He battled well to finish off Michael Russell although neither was particularly solid. Russell choking as he served for the match in the 3rd. Fish at -145 is putting your life in your own hands. His health still is a concern until he proves he can go deep into a tournament. Seeing 25 aces off his racket though may signal the beginning of his resurgence with good health. Speaking of untrustworthy, what do we make of Jeremy Chardy? He beat Verdasco last week and perhaps we thought was ready to begin a run. Then he retires in the next match, so decidedly so, you'd have been hesitant yesterday to back him against Malisse. He comes out with a punishing first serve and rolls in straights. Today he gets Colombian Santiago Giraldo. Chardy listed at -175 is still on the no-fly list, BUT he is by far the more talented player here. No edge with the total at 23 to me as Chardy has played several tie break sets. Might actually trend over at the better price. Gulbis and Gabashvili in the other match, no thank you on a side. The Russian has a 4-0 head-2-head advantage and Gulbis still is a risky proposition despite his recent semi up-turn in form. With both capable of back and forth ebbs and flows in matches, I'd favor the over at 22 as a pretty significant possibility.

Acapulco
Gasquet and Almagro in one of the openers today is somewhat interesting. Almagro has owned this tournament, but played a very uneven 2nd set against Sela yesterday despite winning 6-1, 7-6. Gasquet beat the old dog Moya in three sets, but was on the ropes down a break in the 2nd. Almagro at -160 I think is good for parlay usage if you don't like laying the chalk. Gasquet just doesn't seem quite right yet and isn't at his best on dirt. Other solid match-ups here: Bellucci vs. Ferrer. They've never met before. Bellucci is on a solid run to start 2010 on dirt with a 8-1 mark and a title. Ferrer played well before losing in the Buenos Aires final to JCF last weekend. I've touted Bellucci as one of the real up and comers on dirt since last Spring when he played well in the South America swing. I like him at plus money today. He has more power to his game and that will be needed to fend off the pesky Ferrer. Over 22 might be good too as this could be a three set match potentially. Ferrero vs. Andreev is a rematch from last week. JCF won that going away in the 2nd after a strong battle in the 1st set tie break. I said coming into this tournament that I thought the string of two successive tournament wins might catch up to JCF somewhere in Mexico. Is it today? Probably not. Andreev has the game to trouble him, but JCF is in-form and the more consistent and reliable player on dirt. JCF in parlays is the only way I would roll though at -230. The other one catching my eye is Lukasz Kubot and Fernando Verdasco. Over 20.5 is perhaps the best play on the board in Mexico to me. For those not keeping up, the Pole Kubot has really burst onto the singles scene after spending most of his developmental years as a doubles player. Verdasco was very uneven against Fognini, losing the 1st set and then battling thru 6-4 in the second before routing the Italian 6-0 in the 3rd. Double faults have really been wreaking havoc on the Spaniard. He had 9 yesterday. Kubot is 6-3 on clay this year, including a finals apperance in Brazil. The Pole routed Zeballos in straights in his opener. He will provide a stiff test for Verdasco. Kubot +5 and on the ML are both were some consideration.

That's all I see for today in looking around at the form and situation heading into today's play. Hope the insight helps. Happy scalping!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-25-10, 12:17 AM

Didn't have a whole lot of time to do a write-up on my thoughts for tomorrow morning. Dubai has been pretty topsy turvy. I'm always hesitant on Russians, but if the price is low - they usually can be relied upon if their form is good. Youzhny still is a bit of an iffy one with his leg issue, but he's looked pretty solid through two rounds and Tipsarevic falls into the let down category after a big win over Murray. At -110, Youzhny might be useful. Baghdatis-Berrer I think I'd like an over if it falls at 22.5 or less. Djokovic & Cilic seem likely to advance, but I wouldn't expect anything to be EZ. May have a little more insight for Delray Beach & Acapulco. Disappointed that Bellucci got rolled easily by Ferrer, expected more from the kid. JCF continues to amaze! If he can play quick sets and dominate, fatigue may not be an issue after all this week. Good luck in the morning boys and girls!

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-25-10, 10:20 AM

Delray Beach: 2.25
Gabashvili-Gulbis looks as if it could be a back & forther. Over 22 is quite possible if both men bring solid serving. Same goes for Nieminen-Korolev in my book. Korolev has played a wealth of 7-6 sets in the last couple tournaments and a very uneven three set match. Could be more of that on tap. Same feelings about Fish & Chardy from yesterday.