EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-26-10, 12:12 AM

Yeah 5dimes has doubles. I play them if there's an edge at a price.

**RobbReport** · 02-26-10, 12:20 AM

Bryan and Bryan always seems like good money.

**Sforz** · 02-26-10, 01:43 AM

nice call on Monaco..

**KingKolzig** · 02-26-10, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Juan Monaco out to +155 against Verdasco. Excellent price. Expecting a close match. Not sold on Verdasco on dirt at all.

YEEEESSSS. Got monaco (+151) and Ray allen -2 pts vs A.Jamison (+188) on a big parlay

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-26-10, 01:16 PM

Over wins in the Baghdatis-Djokovic match. Djokovic wins in 3. Djokovic survives 10 double faults.

At Delray Beach, think Mayer offers some value against Gulbis. Gulbis can dominate, but if his serve falters - and you never know when, he's meat. Mayer beat him earlier this year. The over might be a sucker bet today at 23 with higher juice. Thinking one of these guys gets in done in straights because one or the other sucks on serve and it might be an odd scoreline.

**Glitch** · 02-26-10, 01:35 PM

i like gulbis today

**michalis** · 02-26-10, 01:38 PM

yes nieminen won 7-5 in tiebreak

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-26-10, 03:23 PM

Acapulco
Two fun matches this afternoon/evening. First up, Ferrero vs. Monaco. Two solid clay courters with JCF being in superb form. Monaco scored the upset of Verdasco yesterday. Ferrero won their only career meeting a couple weeks back in Buenos Aires: 6-3, 7-6. JCF controlled that with a super 2nd serve, while Monaco struggled with his 1st serve and was broken four of seven chances offered. Monaco's serving has been better here. JCF has been steady all tournament. JCF did spend two hours on court yesterday, so if fatigue is ever going to get him after winning two straight tournaments, this might be that perfect spot. At 22.5, the total offers nothing specific to me. I think if you believe Monaco to be the right choice, the over would be the trend to follow because I'm not sure that against the caliber of player of JCF in his current form that Monaco will stay steady enough to win in 2. Conversely, if you fancy JCF - the under might be your look after last week's win although my personal opinion is this could go 3. Ferrer vs. Gonzalez is the night cap. They have met 8 times with Gonzo owning a 6-2 lead, including a 2-1 edge on clay. This match appears to be a toss-up as set with the price. Gonzalez at -115, Ferrer at -105. The total is at 22.5 which offers a shot at the over I think even if this falls at two sets. Gonzo gets the edge in my mind because his serve is a weapon that can bail him out, even on clay. Ferrer doesn't have that, but is certainly the better defender and he has shown a great ability to get break chances after being broken. Looking at the futures left, Gonzalez is favored to take the whole thing. JCF second best. Ferrer 3rd and Monaco the long shot.

**ji03** · 02-26-10, 03:52 PM

I like Ferrer because he's playing well making the final last week and Gonzo has played 3 straight three setters this tourney compared to Ferrer who has cruised in straights.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-26-10, 09:46 PM

I just think some of Ferrer's wins have been done with smoke and mirrors. He was getting crushed in the 1st set yesterday 5-2 I think and Cuevas screwed the rest of the set to lose 7-5. I actually like that Gonzo has been on court more, feel he will be better suited to dealing with adversity. He's also made the most of very few break chances against him. Hopefully this ends up being a good match. Think it should if both bring the best aspects of their game, Ferrer returning & Gonzo serving/forehand smashes.

**RogueScholar** · 02-27-10, 12:18 AM

You called it, EP. Ferrer putting balls back in play and Gonzo powering the ball off the forehand wing, we're headed to a third set. If only Americans had an out to play tennis in-match. There's money to be made tonight.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-27-10, 12:40 AM

I don't even pretend to understand how the 2nd set ended 6-0 Ferrer. I just don't understand how you completely no-show for a set like that. Ferrer is going to win. Broke Gonzo in the 3rd & Gonzo just can't serve if it's on the 2nd.

**RobbReport** · 02-27-10, 01:24 AM

Gonzo bitched out to setup the Ferrer and Fererro rematch. wish i remembered they played last week.

**ji03** · 02-27-10, 01:37 AM

now who do you like in the ferrero/ferrer rematch? I say ferrero again, but will look at the odds before making a play.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-02-10, 10:39 PM

Jelena Jankovic, you used to be somebody.

**beefcake** · 03-02-10, 11:48 PM

dam right about that..!

Since last season fading her has been mighty profitable for someone..

**ji03** · 03-03-10, 12:06 AM

yeah that was pretty bad

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-03-10, 11:40 AM

I was also thinking taking the over in Jankovic matches might be pretty steady gravy. She can break nearly anyone, but can't hold her own serve for crap. Gonna follow that trend for a few tourneys and see. Her total yesterday was real low at 18.5 I think.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-05-10, 09:20 AM

Welcome to THE TALK .... for Friday, March 5th

Davis Cup is the name of the game today. Just a quick thought in France where Tsonga faces Becker coming up in a few minutes. On an indoor hard surface, Benjamin Becker's serve may allow for him to keep pace even if he gets outed in straight sets in this best of 5 format. Total is set at 34. The OVER seems a definite possibility if Becker can hold his own serve deep into these sets. Couple that with Tsonga not having been in the best of form either as he recovers from some sort of illness last month. Just one to watch that I think could hit.

Otherwise, USA! USA! At +395 to advance, I've decided that they have a shot in hell. Isner & Querrey need to win one match each and then rely on the Bryans to be dominant in doubles as usual and there's your formula. Can Isner and Querrey beat Djokovic and Troicki twice on clay? I say perhaps. Querrey played well transitioning to clay against a solid dirt baller in Fernando Gonzalez, so I think he could do okay here. I just don't buy Troicki being consistent enough to guarantee two wins or even one win. Isner is the key to me.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-05-10, 12:17 PM

Isner should be up two sets in this match against Troicki. Disappointing. He got to serve for the opening set and fudged up, losing it in the breaker. Came back and tied it at a set a piece. Down a break in the 3rd. One of these big boys is gonna beat Troicki.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-05-10, 12:34 PM

Becker gets the 3rd set in a tie break clinching the OVER.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-05-10, 12:59 PM

Isner falls in the 3rd, 7-5.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-05-10, 04:38 PM

Querrey like Isner blew a golden opportunity and is down 2 sets to none. No chance the US wins three straight. Bye bye bye.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-07-10, 12:34 PM

Isner takes Djokovic to a 5th set. Probably get rolled, but pretty gutsy performance.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-09-10, 10:48 PM

Can't wait for an ATP MAIN DRAW match to finally start in Indian Wells on Thursday. No offense to you guys brave enough to do it, but betting qualis is a crap shoot and bad voodoo IMO.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-11-10, 09:49 AM

Things I THINK I Know ... Thursday, March 11th

Indian Wells finally gets to the main draw today. I'm excited to see Mario Ancic back in a main draw. This kid's career has gone to crap with injuries and distractions, but he had a wealth of talent. I'll be interested to see what he does against Bobby Reynolds today. Reynolds pulled his own career out of a downward spiral with a few wins in the last month, but he's anything but a journeyman at this stage of his career. Ancic at +110 is something I THINK I like.

Lukas Lacko, the young Slovak, is a guy I have been following this year. He has a wealth of talent, but consistency seems to be a problem with him. He draws a decent first round opponent in Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who has yet to taste victory in 2010. At -150 though, I THINK Lacko might be a bit over-valued for the lack of consistency he has shown. Still, I THINK he wins today.

I THINK if you're hunting a good moneyline parlay today you could do worse than starting with Leonardo Mayer at -235 and then sprinkling in Jeremy Chardy [-260] for a neat -103 price.

I THINK Djokovic at +700 in the futures is rock solid. He's got a relative cake walk until the quarterfnals. I THINK Soderling at +3000 and Davydenko at +1500 - if you can pick one over the other has a shot in their portion of the bracket to turn you a profit.

**beefcake** · 03-11-10, 09:52 AM

Good stuff EP,mayer and chardy are good bets IMO today for that parlay.
Who is jankovic playing today..

**Boner_18** · 03-11-10, 10:47 AM

Love the call on Lacko. Young guy at a career high and putting together some good losses against top talent. He has played 11 tie break sets over 14 matches played this year, putting himself in a good spot to see some wins, not worried about the -150.

Like the Mayer call too though I haven't done a full work up on it yet. Gonna pass on any Chardy action here though he should get it done against a player who plays on hard court like it were burning lava. GL to you EP.

**Boner_18** · 03-11-10, 04:44 PM

Lacko blows 5 game points on his service to take it to a 3rd set tie break. Yipee!
duh

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-11-10, 06:56 PM

Yep. Lacko remains inconsistent at best. That's why I thought tha -150 tag wasn't the greatest. If the kid ever develops some nerve, he could be really good. Ancic broke back in the 2nd set. Back on-serve after dropping the 1st.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-12-10, 09:32 AM

Things I THINK I Know .... Friday, March 12th

I THINK you could do worse than backing Mischa Zverev at +265 over an iffy Nicolas Almagro. It might be a perfect spot for a nice payoff. Almagro comes in off the clay ties at the Davis Cup, while Zverev has been off for several weeks. He's pulled himself out of the nose dive he was in late last year into the start of this year with a 4-2 mark in his last two tourneys, both on hard courts. OVER could be the better bet in this match depending where it's set.

I THINK I am interested in seeing the return of Paul Henri-Mathieu if for nothing else than he's usually a fade ATM machine when priced as a favorite. He hasn't played since November, so there's no form to rely on as he takes on Benjamin Becker. Becker is one of those guys who just doesn't seem to be able to put it together consistently. The surface though should suit him and his serve. I think Becker is usually a tough out and again the OVER here might be the best way to go depending on the number. I THINK I like Becker to move on as Mathieu may have practiced well to get ready, but doesn't have the match fitness that Becker should have at this point of the season.

I THINK I like chanting Dudi Sela's name like he was a New York Yankees player getting serenaded by the crowd in the Bronx. Dudi Sela *clap clap clap clap clap* Dudi Sela *clap clap clap clap clap*. It's addictive. I think his match against Jesse Levine is a total coin flip although Sela is a slight favorite. I THINK I'd rather take the guy who isn't losing in Challengers to guys ranked in the 300s. Do it with me ... Dudi Sela .....

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-12-10, 10:20 AM

Over for Almagro-Zverev is 21.5. Becker-Mathieu is 23.5. Don't like that one.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-12-10, 01:40 PM

Sela out to +102. All money on Levine. I took Sela at this price.

**ji03** · 03-12-10, 02:43 PM

looking good right now. Sela is playing very well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-12-10, 03:15 PM

Dudi Sela *clap clap clap clap clap*