EP36's Equalizers

EaglesPhan36 · 10-21-09, 03:12 PM

Milan up 2-1, chance for the upset .... cannot believe there are no goals in this Wolfsburg match. Sheesh. Hoping Bayern gets an equalizer to earn the draw so that I can hit part of that Round Robin as my straight bet today is pretty much F-ed.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-21-09, 03:30 PM

Well I guess the only thing I did right today was not to take the Zurich/Marseilles OVER. Other than that, a forgettable day as Milan takes the lead again.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-21-09, 03:33 PM

Updated Record: 92-63-8 (+22.19)

EaglesPhan36 · 10-21-09, 11:41 PM

Play #164 [Europa League] Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Toulouse OVER 2.5 (-123)
Donetsk has been scoring goals in bunches of late. 16 goals in their last 5, conceding 5 in that span. In Europa League play, Donetsk spanked Partizan 4-1 and that came on the heels of drubbing Club Brugge 4-1. Donestk has scored 18 goals at home in their last 5 and has conceded a goal in 3 of those matches. Toulouse has gotten on the scoresheet in 5 of their last 6 overall. In Europa League play, the French side has hit over this total in 3 of 4, scoring 8 goals in those matches while yielding 6. Both their road tilts in the EL ended up over this total. Donetsk is in superb form with 10 matches done in their domestic league without losing a point. Toulouse is already in the bottom half of France's top league & would be expected to concentrate greatly on these sort of matches. The Ukranians likely will continue their goal spree with multiple goals here. If Toulouse hits the board, I have little doubt this should get done & Donetsk is quality enough to do it all by themselves.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-21-09, 11:49 PM

Play #165: [Europa League] Ventspils +1 (+102)
Ventspils has drawn both their Europa League matches to date & Sporting Lisbon narrowly edged Hertha BSC at home 1-0 & needed an 88th minute goal on the road in their other Europa League clash to KO Herenveen. In 6 competitive road matches this year since their domestic campaign began, Sporting has three draws in 6 matches. Also note they have only beaten one team on the road by more than a goal in their 2 wins & that was bottom feeding Academica. In their three matches in Champions League & Europa League vs. teams still playing right now (Zurich/BATE Borisov), Ventspils only lost once by more than a goal (lost all three matches). If the Latvians bring their best, I think the worst they might get here is a draw so the +1 would be very nice. Trusting the instincts here. We'll see.

Phillth · 10-22-09, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Play #165: [Europa League] Ventspils +1 (+102)
Ventspils has drawn both their Europa League matches to date & Sporting Lisbon narrowly edged Hertha BSC at home 1-0 & needed an 88th minute goal on the road in their other Europa League clash to KO Herenveen. In 6 competitive road matches this year since their domestic campaign began, Sporting has three draws in 6 matches. Also note they have only beaten one team on the road by more than a goal in their 2 wins & that was bottom feeding Academica. In their three matches in Champions League & Europa League vs. teams still playing right now (Zurich/BATE Borisov), Ventspils only lost once by more than a goal (lost all three matches). If the Latvians bring their best, I think the worst they might get here is a draw so the +1 would be very nice. Trusting the instincts here. We'll see.

Note on ventspils: They only have 3 matches left in the latvian league. second place metalurgs is 1pt back with a game in hand and will most likely win thier next game. this puts a much pressure on ventspils in thier next domestic match. they may rest key players and play for a draw which would be good for you.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-22-09, 12:17 AM

Yeah I don't think they will win, but I think this one will be within a goal, hopefully!

Wilforth · 10-22-09, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Yeah I don't think they will win, but I think this one will be within a goal, hopefully!

If doesn't matter. The game could remain goalless until about the 75th minute and whichever side scores then will intensify its defense and possibly win. So don't rule out the prospect of a Ventspils win. Recall that Sporting are scoreless in their L2.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-22-09, 08:15 AM

No problem if they win straight, just taking the conservative approach to try to get nothing worse than a push.

Wilforth · 10-22-09, 08:25 AM

EP,

I'm tailing you on that conservative approach as I don't see them losing on their home ground. The fact is that a lot of the lines on these games don't reflect the reality. It's left for us to figure out where the value lies and hit the books.

I'm also liking:
Fulham/Roma UNDER 2.5 (-110)

Neither side is putting much into the game. From what the coaches are saying, their league games are more important to them and they've made it clear that they'll resting key players ahead of their weekend games.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-22-09, 12:57 PM

Play #164: [WINNER] at half time!

Finally, a no sweat bet! Gonna put $10 on Sturm Graz at +825 because Daddy needs some beer money.

Wilforth · 10-22-09, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Play #164 [Europa League] Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Toulouse OVER 2.5 (-123)
Donetsk has been scoring goals in bunches of late. 16 goals in their last 5, conceding 5 in that span. In Europa League play, Donetsk spanked Partizan 4-1 and that came on the heels of drubbing Club Brugge 4-1. Donestk has scored 18 goals at home in their last 5 and has conceded a goal in 3 of those matches. Toulouse has gotten on the scoresheet in 5 of their last 6 overall. In Europa League play, the French side has hit over this total in 3 of 4, scoring 8 goals in those matches while yielding 6. Both their road tilts in the EL ended up over this total. Donetsk is in superb form with 10 matches done in their domestic league without losing a point. Toulouse is already in the bottom half of France's top league & would be expected to concentrate greatly on these sort of matches. The Ukranians likely will continue their goal spree with multiple goals here. If Toulouse hits the board, I have little doubt this should get done & Donetsk is quality enough to do it all by themselves.

Great call

EaglesPhan36 · 10-22-09, 03:28 PM

Ventspils now tied 1-1. Still 25 minutes or so left though. My Sturm Graz dartboard shot looks wiped out due to a PK goal for Panathinaikos.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-22-09, 04:00 PM

Updated Record: 93-63-9 (+23.19)

Clooooose to a sweep today, but Ventspils let in a late goal so the +1 came in handy for the push.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-22-09, 09:25 PM

Play #166: [Netherlands Eredivisie] Utrecht vs. Roda JC UNDER 3/2.5 (-120)
Utrecht has given up just two goals at home in five matches, while scoring just 6. Roda has had all sorts of defensive issues, especially on the road where they have yielded 12 goals in 5 matches. They have just two scores in that same span. Utrecht has scored two goals just twice at home with the other three matches resulting in just two goals scored. Roda's only road goals have come against two of the worst defense's in the league. With Utrecht not possessing the greatest of offenses even against the giving nature of Roda, this one looks as if it will be a 2-0 type match with 3-0 IMO being the worst case scenario.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-23-09, 03:42 PM

Updated Record: 93-63-10 (+23.19)

Unlucky push as Roda scored in the 90th minute to make it a 2-1 final.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-23-09, 04:54 PM

Play #167: [Argentina Primera] Estudiantes v.s Atletico Tucuman OVER 2/2.5 (-134)
Estudiantes has hit for two goals or better in 5 of their 7 matches and only failed to score once, that coming in a 1-0 road loss. At home, all four matches have hit at least two goals with 3 of them hitting for 3 or better. Estudiantes has only kept one clean sheet in those matches. Atletico Tucuman, a promoted club from Argentina's B League, is averaging one goal per road match while conceding nearly 2 per road contest. They have conceded multiple goals in 3 of their 5 road matches, but have also found the back of the net in all but one match. All 9 of their matches have hit for at least two goals. Estudiantes is in the early hunt for the top of the table, so these matches are must wins to keep pace with league leading San Lorenzo. With Estudiantes' prowess for goal scoring at home + Atletico's giving nature (T-2nd most goals allowed), I would think the home side has an excellent shot to get to the first level of this split total with two goals of their own & a third no being unlikely. I think the total gets to three if Tucuman gets on the scoresheet.

TurkzZ · 10-23-09, 04:59 PM

yh i like this play, i was choosing between this and the over, in the end i felt Estu will win the game so it will be a cover at least, BOL on this

EaglesPhan36 · 10-23-09, 05:08 PM

Yeah I saw you and Karayilan were on Estudiantes. Hadn't looked a ton at the match until I saw you guys on them and then did some research. Hopefully we get a 3-0 Estudiantes win and we all go to the pay window!

mihaita666 · 10-23-09, 05:42 PM

do you guys see this match live ? im curious about the general display so far

Phillth · 10-23-09, 05:56 PM

rojadirecta.com

great place for live feeds

EaglesPhan36 · 10-23-09, 05:58 PM

Thanks for the link.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-23-09, 07:18 PM

Updated Record: 93-64-10 (+21.85)

That sucked. Saw one ball sail right over the goal that I thought was gonna go in for goal #2. Onto the weekend. Definitely have a Sunday play, probably one tomorrow in the English Premier after I finish looking.

TurkzZ · 10-23-09, 09:34 PM

that link is brilliant, ARG league is crazy, it can be a end to end game for 90 mins and still end under, they seem to have a finnising problem as a whole lol

EaglesPhan36 · 10-23-09, 09:51 PM

Play #168: [English Premier] Burnley +150
Burnley has stunned the Premier League by placing themselves in mid-pack with 4 wins at home against no losses. Wigan is 1-3 on the road, losing to the likes of Hull City, Arsenal & Everton. Wigan got the shocker over Chelsea at home, but has done little since. I'm going to side with the unbeaten & hungrier team that plays much better on home turf.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-23-09, 11:36 PM

Changed my last pick.

Club · 10-24-09, 07:25 AM

EP how do you mean you changed your last pick? I see Burnley to win +150. Was it something else before or is it something else now? Thanks.

jayc88 · 10-24-09, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Play #166: [Netherlands Eredivisie] Utrecht vs. Roda JC UNDER 3/2.5 (-120) Utrecht has given up just two goals at home in five matches, while scoring just 6. Roda has had all sorts of defensive issues, especially on the road where they have yielded 12 goals in 5 matches. They have just two scores in that same span. Utrecht has scored two goals just twice at home with the other three matches resulting in just two goals scored. Roda's only road goals have come against two of the worst defense's in the league. With Utrecht not possessing the greatest of offenses even against the giving nature of Roda, this one looks as if it will be a 2-0 type match with 3-0 IMO being the worst case scenario.

how is that a push and not a loss when the game ended 2-1

INVINCIBLE · 10-24-09, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by jayc88

how is that a push and not a loss when the game ended 2-1

Play #166: [Netherlands Eredivisie] Utrecht vs. Roda JC UNDER 3/2.5 (-120)

Because of the ''Three''. Like a double chance 2.5 or 3 but in this case you get your money back.

jayc88 · 10-24-09, 07:49 AM

Originally posted by INVINCIBLE

Play #166: [Netherlands Eredivisie] Utrecht vs. Roda JC UNDER 3/2.5 (-120) Because of the ''Three''. Like a double chance 2.5 or 3 but in this case you get your money back.

yes but you only get half your money back , because you are playing U3 / 2.5,
so its a half unit loss and not a push

jayc88 · 10-24-09, 07:52 AM

like a double chance 2.5 or 3

unreal,
maybe you should read some introduction on soccer betting

but it was probably just an error by eaglesphan,
dont think he was trying to manipulate his record intentionally

EaglesPhan36 · 10-24-09, 10:53 AM

Sorry for the mistake on the play, yes it was a half stakes loss. And yes I had a different play than Burnley originally - another dumb ass waffle job by me. It was Hull/Portsmouth under which would have won.

Updated Record: 93-65-9 (+21.25)

Club · 10-24-09, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Sorry for the mistake on the play, yes it was a half stakes loss. And yes I had a different play than Burnley originally - another dumb ass waffle job by me. It was Hull/Portsmouth under which would have won.

Updated Record: 93-65-9 (+21.25)

No worries. Let's get the next one.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-24-09, 07:57 PM

Play #169: [Austria Bundesliga] Austria Wien vs. Lask LINZ OVER 3/3.5 (-115) [2 unit play]
This line had been flat at 3.5 for +105 which would have been fine, but getting the split line is a nice conservative way to go. Anyone who has read my write-ups on LINZ should know that goals & this squad go hand-in-hand. All 11 of their league matches have hit for 4 or more goals. They average 2.8 goals, while conceding 2.5. LINZ has scored at least two goals in all their matches. Wien isn't quite as offensively gifted as LINZ, but they proved worthy of scoring on the leaky LINZ D in the first match-up, netting 5 goals in a 5-4 win. LINZ has yielded 3 goals or more in all 5 road matches. They've scored two or more in 4 of 5. 5 goals is the lowest total for a LINZ road match. I was hesitant in the first match-up to go for the OVER because Wien doesn't score a lot of goals & they have just 9 through 6 home matches with 3 clean sheets. Still with LINZ' giving defense, even if Wien shuts the door, there's a real possibility they get all four goals themselves & this one should be good for the 3 goals that will earn nothing worse than a half stakes loss. Until LINZ proves it wrong, I'll hit the over hard again.

Club · 10-24-09, 08:28 PM

Hopefully this train keeps on rolling.