EP36's Equalizers

EaglesPhan36 · 10-17-09, 12:22 PM

Gracias. LINZ overs have been sweet all season so far. The only trouble has been keeping track of when they play & remembering to hit it!

EaglesPhan36 · 10-17-09, 01:26 PM

Updated Record: 88-61-8 (+20.64)

I see a possibility in Brazil Serie A later for the Avai-Goais OVER, but the price is split on the 2.5/3 at -141 and that isn't too sexy. Avai has played 5 straight to totals of 4 goals or more. 4 of 5 for Goais have hit for 3 or more. Goais' offense has sputtered a tad though. 7 of the last 9 road matches for Goais have hit for at least 3. 5 of the last 7 home matches for Avai have hit at least 3. If you can find a flat 2.5 goal total for higher chalk, think that is solid. Still a solid shot for 4 to clear the split total, but the price has me waffling.

smitch124 · 10-17-09, 01:37 PM

Good Work EP, keep your eyes open for LASK Linz next time around!

superduperjacob · 10-17-09, 01:52 PM

Direct link for LASK games (the link leads to a CSV file that can be directly imported into your Outlook calendar):

LASK

http://lask.at/lask.at/content/e22/e26/e128/e2461/f/terminplan_25062009114107.csv

Offizielle Website des LASK

If the link is blocked you can see the schedule at http://lask.at/content/lask/spiele_t...pp3_bundesliga, and also download the CSV from this page.

Club · 10-17-09, 02:08 PM

All I can get is 2-/3 -143. Let us know if you decide to pull the trigger.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-17-09, 04:29 PM

Decided to pass, but I think 3 is gonna hit. Just don't wanna pay the -140ish price with other stuff pending. GL if you play it.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-17-09, 06:00 PM

At 3 with 15 minutes left. I'm making the call, 2-2 final and gets the peeps off the 3 line for a full win.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-17-09, 07:55 PM

Play #158: [English Premier] Blackburn vs. Burnley OVER 2.5 (-103)
Both defenses have been leaky through the early stages of the Premier League as both Blackburn & Burnley yield 2 goals per match. On the road, Burnley has been especially giving - giving up an average of 3.5 goals per match through 4 matches. Burnley has yet to score on the road, which could be problematic here. However, their last 5 overall have all hit 3 goals or more. Blackburn has tallied multiple goals in 3 of their last 4 and have yielded a goal in all but one match this season. At home, the Rovers have found their scoring touch of late with 5 goals in their last two - both of which hit for 3 goals or better. If Burnley can finally get a goal on the road, this one should have a solid shot to hit as I think Blackburn might get 2 goals or better on Sunday.

ZXCVBNM · 10-17-09, 10:38 PM

Have you taken the 'derby' angle into this pick? I'm liking it myself but there is a big chance it could turn into a brutal and gritty war

eye_spy · 10-17-09, 10:50 PM

we dont get it in australia either

pitman · 10-18-09, 07:25 AM

what a quality pick. that one hit very early, thx EP

EaglesPhan36 · 10-18-09, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by ZXCVBNM

Have you taken the 'derby' angle into this pick? I'm liking it myself but there is a big chance it could turn into a brutal and gritty war

I did not. I'm mostly a numbers cruncher/form follower for these soccer picks. I needed this one after the tail end of Saturday with college football & the Angels blowing a golden opportunity to cash a big ticket for me. Nice to wake up to this!

Updated Record: 89-61-8 (+21.64)

EaglesPhan36 · 10-18-09, 12:55 PM

Play #159: [Brazil Serie A] Atletico Paranaense vs. Santo Andre UNDER 2.5 (-113)
Atletico has kept clean sheets at home in 6 straight. That should bode well against a Santo Andre squad that has scored just 3 away goals in their last 5 matches. Santo Andre doesn't have a stellar defense, but Atletico has only scored more than one goal in a match twice in their last 11. At home, they have 15 goals on the season in 14 matches. These two teams are among the bottom three as far as goals per match at 2.41 each. If Atletico continues their stifling defense on their home pitch, they could have yet another clean sheet and this one may fall at a 1-0 or 2-0 final. 1st meeting was 1-0 Santo Andre at home.

Play #160: [Brazil Serie A] Vitoria vs. Nautico OVER 2.5/3 (-115)
Vitoria at home has six straight matches where they have scored multiple goals and have yielded at least one goal in 6 of 7. Nautico has been pretty solid scoring on the road, tallying at least one goal in 7 of 9. They have given up 37 goals in their 14 road matches. First meeting was 1-1 at Nautico, where Nautico plays much better defense and Vitoria has trouble scoring on the road.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-18-09, 05:13 PM

1 for 2. Too bad my NFL plays pretty much buried me on top of the POS beats from late Saturday. Hope my $100 BetP freeplay is available for Tuesday. I've been trying to find it on their site ... anyone used a freeplay for Soccer at BetPhoenix? I see something listed when I google freeplay rules that makes it sound like you can use it on soccer totals, but could not find it specifically on their site.

Club · 10-18-09, 05:36 PM

I know I've used the free play option for soccer totals at Betphoenix. I recall a little box I could click after I made the selection that allowed me to use free play.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-18-09, 06:03 PM

Cool. Thanks for the info. Pretty sure that is where I am going to use mine.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-20-09, 12:14 AM

Play #161: [Champions League] Barcelona vs. Rubin Kazan UNDER 3.5 (-128)
Barca has conceded just 2 goals in their last 9 games and have clean sheets in four straight. Rubin Kazan has tallied a goal and conceded in 4 straight. They have however not yielded more than 3 goals in 14 straight. They played Inter Milan tough to a 1-1 draw in their last CL match and were a bit unlucky in losing 3-1 to Dynamo Kiev on the road where they gave up 3 goals in the last 20 minutes. Barca shut down Dynamo 2-0 in their last CL match. Ibrahimovic is likely to be out against for the Spaniards which won't effect Barcelona in winning this one, but could keep them from exploding for too many goals. Kazan will also be without one of their top two strikers, so the likelihood of them scoring is fairly low. This one sets up for a 2-0, 3-0 Barcelona win IMO if Kazan can keep their defense from crumbling early. Barca will wear the Russian side down, but with Barca not exactly lighting it up offensively - this one could keep a bit lower than expected. Will wait for alternate lines before placing this as I would feel better with a flat 3.5 line at -115 or so.

Wilforth · 10-20-09, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Play #161: [Champions League] Barcelona vs. Rubin Kazan UNDER 3.5/3 (+100)
Barca has conceded just 2 goals in their last 9 games and have clean sheets in four straight. Rubin Kazan has tallied a goal and conceded in 4 straight. They have however not yielded more than 3 goals in 14 straight. They played Inter Milan tough to a 1-1 draw in their last CL match and were a bit unlucky in losing 3-1 to Dynamo Kiev on the road where they gave up 3 goals in the last 20 minutes. Barca shut down Dynamo 2-0 in their last CL match. Ibrahimovic is likely to be out against for the Spaniards which won't effect Barcelona in winning this one, but could keep them from exploding for too many goals. Kazan will also be without one of their top two strikers, so the likelihood of them scoring is fairly low. This one sets up for a 2-0, 3-0 Barcelona win IMO if Kazan can keep their defense from crumbling early. Barca will wear the Russian side down, but with Barca not exactly lighting it up offensively - this one could keep a bit lower than expected. Will wait for alternate lines before placing this as I would feel better with a flat 3.5 line at -115 or so.

Great call. This should have the semblance of the Barce/Kiev game. Barca keeps a clean sheet while scoring no more than 3. I'll also consider doing the 1H Under 1.5. Ibrahimovic won't make much of a difference to the score were he to play. Ibrahimovic is a league player. He's not particularly a CL nor an international player. He hardly scores in CL games nor for Sweden.

TurkzZ · 10-20-09, 08:00 AM

smart call, Kazan will make it tough for Barcelona i think

EaglesPhan36 · 10-20-09, 08:20 AM

3.5 total is -128 at BetPhoenix.

Wilforth · 10-20-09, 08:29 AM

EaglePhan36,

Would you consider this a greedy play?:

Rubin Kazan/Barca 1H draw +200

jayc88 · 10-20-09, 08:32 AM

Originally posted by TurkzZ

smart call, Kazan will make it tough for Barcelona i think

why would one of the worst clubs in the champ league make it tough against the best team in europe?
under is not a bad call since kazan won't score most times, they have a huge lack of quality strikers, so it all depends on barca.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-20-09, 08:36 AM

Not greedy, just a bit of a long shot ... taking that means you think it'll be 0-0 most likely?

jayc88 · 10-20-09, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by Wilforth

EaglePhan36, Would you consider this a greedy play?: Rubin Kazan/Barca 1H draw +200

willforth you should start looking for +ev plays and this one is def not one of them

TurkzZ · 10-20-09, 08:39 AM

Originally posted by jayc88

why would one of the worst clubs in the champ league make it tough against the best team in europe? under is not a bad call since kazan won't score most times, they have a huge lack of quality strikers, so it all depends on barca.

Kazan is not the worst team in the Champions league, not by a long shot

Wilforth · 10-20-09, 08:42 AM

Thanks Jayc88.

Henry is unavailable for the game. It's not certain if Messi (that tiny devil) and Ibrahimovic will be in the line-up. I did a small play on Barca/Kiev 1H draw the last time and Messi killed it. I'll repeat my 1H Barca draw again today. Kazan can defend like hell.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-20-09, 08:44 AM

Personal choices for 1st half draws would be Milan-Kiev, Stuttgart-Sevilla, Olympiakos-Liege. Have thought of doing a Round Robin on those.

Wilforth · 10-20-09, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Not greedy, just a bit of a long shot ... taking that means you think it'll be 0-0 most likely?

Yes, I mean 1H 0-0. I don't see Kazan shutting out Barcelona but in the possible absence of Messi/Ibrahimovic/Henry, Kazan can keep a 45-minute clean sheet and celebrate that when they get back home.

My thinking is that if Kazan can shutout Barca in the first 15 minutes, then all they'll need to do is duplicate that effort twice and we'll have a goalless 1H. Remember Marseille did the same thing to Real in the last round of CL games. A Barca 1H win looks too easy and it's one of those things that may not happen.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-20-09, 09:07 AM

Well I am hoping for that Wilforth because it'd go a long way to getting the under done for the game. Think Kazan has to be tight defensively early of Barca may roll up 4 goals.

Wilforth · 10-20-09, 09:11 AM

Kazan know they can't get anything against Barcelona. So all they'll play for is to avoid disgrace. I think they'll be able to lose by a respectable margin. 2-0 is my prediction for that game.

jayc88 · 10-20-09, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by TurkzZ

Kazan is not the worst team in the Champions league, not by a long shot

one of the worst along with debrecen and unirea ,
teams like alkmaar, haifa, besiktas , nikosia are all a class above

Wilforth · 10-20-09, 09:46 AM

Nikosia and Haifa are a class above Rubin Kazan? Time will tell.

jayc88 · 10-20-09, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Nikosia and Haifa are a class above Rubin Kazan? Time will tell.

its not a huge gap between these teams but i rate haifa and nikosia a bit higher ,

nikosia +1.5 vs porto is the best bet tomorrow imo

TurkzZ · 10-20-09, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by jayc88

one of the worst along with debrecen and unirea , teams like alkmaar, haifa, besiktas , nikosia are all a class above

I think Kazan are a lil better then those teams, Russian league Teams will become a big force in europe in the future due to the amount of money being invested in soccer at this time. Teams Like Kazan, Zennit CSKA all have Billions behind them

EaglesPhan36 · 10-20-09, 12:23 PM

Went with 3.5 at -128 for Play #161 (Barca UNDER)

An "off-the book" plays I am making in a small amount ..

Parlay: Barca UNDER & Fiorentina UNDER. The Italians have only allowed 1 goal in their last 5 matches & haven't scored more than two in that same span. Debreceni should be playing to avoid embarassment after Lyon trounced them 4-0 on their home turf in the CL last match. That could lead to a tight game with an odd goal or perhaps two from the Italians providing the margin. Feels like a 1-0, 2-0 match hopefully.