EP36's Equalizers

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #154: [World Cup Qualifier] Swizterland vs. Israel OVER 2.5 (-110)
The Swiss have scored 7 goals in their last 3 WC qualifiers, yielding just two. Israel meanwhile have been just as potent with 11 goals in their last 3, while conceding just two. Israel needs a win just to have a chance to advance if Greece loses. The Swiss need just a point to see them through for sure if Greece beats Luxembourg. Seems likely that both squads have a shot at getting on the scoresheet and both possess the talent to get a 2nd goal or better. These two squads drew way back when qualifying opened up with the Israelis tallying two goals after the 70th minute to earn a point. I'm banking on the Swiss not playing tight for the draw because that could backfire on them and allow Greece a shot to win the Group with a win. If they come playing loose & free, I think there will be goals here.

[Club]

Thanks EP.

And what does this mean?: PAY IT FORWARD! IF YOU GET GOOD ADVICE THAT Tips YOU TO FOLLOW SOMEONE ON SBR, GIVE 'EM A SHINY SBR POINT!

[EaglesPhan36]

It means I think more people need to "tip" posters on here with a point when they use people's information to make their picks. I try to give points when I read other guy's threads or if they have correct picks that I agree/follow with. I just think that's what the system should be, just my personal opinion. Bulgaria just took a 3-0 lead in the 25th minute. Suh-weet! Now I need Switzerland & Israel to wake the F up!

[Club]

I use all of your soccer picks, including Bulgaria over today . I had no idea what this points system is but I'll look into it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well. 1-1-1 today. Switzerland packed it in to get the one point today and that one seemed to have no chance because of their tactics. Bulgaria was beautiful. Croatia lucky to get that 3rd goal, but would have expected 4 after getting 2 early ones. Break even about on the day, can't complain! Hope you guys had a good day!

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 87-59-8 (+20.94)

[ACoochy]

I use all of your soccer picks, including Bulgaria over today . I had no idea what this points system is but I'll look into it.

Club, in the bottom lhs of the thread pane you wil see a gold coin. Click it on EP's and it will ask how many you many points you want to give.....

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #155: [Under 19 Euro Championship PARLAY] Romania/Aremnia OVER 3.5 & Scotland/Austria OVER 2.5
(Pays 1.7:1)
Not worth it at the inflated chalk on the individual matches, but paired together I think these have a shot. Suggest playing smaller than usual stakes ... gun to the head, Romania OVER I think is the better shot, but both I think can hit.

[Wilforth]

Thinking of Scotland ML

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah. Romania will cruise. I was surprised after looking at the results from the earlier stages, etc. to see Scotland as that good a price. Austria got blanked by Romania and Scotland beat Romania. Not sure if there are players out, but I would expect Scotland to be worse than an even odds favorite - instead I see +115 or better.

[Club]

Hey EP, I'm seeing 4/4-, -114 on the Romania total and 2-/3, -108 on Scotland. I'm thinking just two separate straight bets, smaller stakes.

[Wilforth]

Yeah. Romania will cruise. I was surprised after looking at the results from the earlier stages, etc. to see Scotland as that good a price. Austria got blanked by Romania and Scotland beat Romania. Not sure if there are players out, but I would expect Scotland to be worse than an even odds favorite - instead I see +115 or better.

It has nothing to do with players out. The game is in Austria.

[EaglesPhan36]

Is that 4/4.5? Yikes. That jumped big time from 3.5. I'm a little weary on that 4.5, although Armenia has given up 11 goals in their last 2, so it's still pretty likely.

[Wilforth]

4.5 is risky because Armenia are not likely to score. So if Romania fails to score 5, you're done for.

[Club]

Yeah, 4/4.5 at Betphoenix and the only other book I have is Matchbook which sucks for soccer. But the odds are down so I think I'm going to play them both straight. Maybe it'll be like the Bulgaria/Georgia game yesterday.

[Wilforth]

Those Overs aren't looking good right now.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nope. That's why I played it small. Never 100% certain on these tournaments as they progress. Based on previous results, definitely would expect Romania to score multiple goals in the 2nd half still. Scotland-Austria, guess that one is gonna be a stalemate or 1-0.

[Wilforth]

My worry with the Austria game is that Austria has only score against the generous Armenia. Scotland has conceded only 1 goal in 2 games. So if Scotland keeps a clean sheet and score less than 3 goals, then Over is a loser.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well these are both done. No chance with about 25 minutes + change in each and still just one goal. Hopefully Scotland gets a goal for you to cash the ML.

[Wilforth]

I think the Scotland game will end in a goalless draw. They Over is now toast in both games.

[Wilforth]

See how wrong we all were?

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah, that's why I usually don't do full stakes bets on these Under 21, 19, etc. matches because they are a bit harder to predict.

[Wilforth]

Yeah, that's why I usually don't do full stakes bets on these Under 21, 19, etc. matches because they are a bit harder to predict.

Exactly! And the data sample is always too limited for any meaningful analysis.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 87-60-8 (+19.94)

Play #156: [Under 20 World Cup] Ghana vs. Brazil OVER 2.5 (-130)
Been riding with the Ghana side and the OVER for the last two matches and I don't see any need to change that up for the final here. Both Ghana & Brazil possess great quality on the offensive side of the pitch. Ghana has tallied 16 goals and conceded 8, including 4 in the last two rounds (scored 6). Brazil has been much stingier defensively, allowing just 3 goals in their last 6 matches of play. They have scored 14 in that span. Ghana's defense may be it's achilles heel in the final, but that should be a plus for the OVER here. I think both have too much talent to be held scoreless here and Ghana's defense is likely to yield multiple goals if Brazil continues to attack, attack, attack.

[TurkzZ]

BOL bro,

i havnt had a chance to watch Ghana, you reckon thy can overcome Brazil? Brazil been looking prettty strong and are +110 for a win tonight

[EaglesPhan36]

I think Brazil has the better defense and should win due to that, but Ghana is dangerous.

[demize21]

hey eagles what do you think about brazilu20 x ghana 1st half over 1.5 +160 ?

[EaglesPhan36]

Sorry didn't see this in time, but obviously did not hit. Think the red card pretty much ensures a loser in this one. Damn it all.

[demize21]

yea there adding an extra attacker now hopefully the game opens up

[EaglesPhan36]

This one is either gonna be 1-0 on a late goal or goes to penalties or extra time, whatever the rule is for this tourney. Shame, this should have been a nice goal scoring fest or so I thought ... but what do I know. Pooooop.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #157: [Austria Bundesliga] Mattersburg vs. LASK Linz OVER 3/3.5 (-107) [2 unit play]
Linz matches are averaging 5.5 goals this season in Austria through the first 10. On the road, Linz is averaging 2 goals, while conceding 3.75 in 4 matches. All four road matches with Linz have hit totals of 5 or more this season. All 10 matches have hit for 4 or more. Mattersburg is no goal scoring machine with just a 1.3 goals for average, while yielding 1.8 per match. At home though, they have hit for 2.4 per match with multiple goals in 4 of 5. They have yielded 8 goals in those home matches. The first match-up between these two found Linz winning 4-0 at home. Mattersburg hasn't been terribly consistent scoring away from home, but at home and with the goal magnet that is Linz coming in .... I love this one again and will hit it hard.

[TurkzZ]

i like it, bol 2mo bro, time to do some damage

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks. Good luck to you as well.

[EaglesPhan36]

3 goals at the half in the Mattersburg-LINZ match. 2 coming in the last 10 minutes. Just need one to get off the split total and to cash the Over 3.5.

[Wilforth]

Great pick that was.