Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-14-19, 07:53 PM

**KVB** · 09-14-19, 07:59 PM

That's hawt.

I fukked up and missed Ohio in the UPSET Basket. They are trailing 24-27 in the 4th let's hope they lose...lol.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-14-19, 08:51 PM

**KVB** · 09-14-19, 10:23 PM

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-14-19, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by KVB

That's hawt.

I fukked up and missed Ohio in the UPSET Basket. They are trailing 24-27 in the 4th let's hope they lose...lol.

**KVB** · 09-14-19, 11:13 PM

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 629 plays...

904	14-Sep	ATL/WASH UNDER 10.5 (+100)	-1
908		MIL/STL UNDER 7.5 (+100)	1
916		TOR +234	-1

		Sat	-1

		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Weeks 6-10	-1.23
		Weeks 11-15	-4.9
		Weeks 16-20	6.19
		Week 21	4.49
		Week 22	0.58
		Week 23	-10.25
		Week 24	-0.17
		Mon	1.6
		Tue	0.97
		Wed	3.91
		Thu	3.14
		Fri	-3

		Total	-0.99

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund through 110 plays...

926	10-Sep	BAL +1.5 (+200)	-1
922	14-Sep	KC +1.5 (+195)	-1

		Week 25	-2

		Weeks 1-5	-4.92
		Weeks 6-10	-4.59
		Weeks 11-15	4.86
		Weeks 16-20	-4.55
		Week 21	-1.13
		Week 22	3.21
		Week 23	-5.85
		Week 24	-1.13

		Total	-16.1

Here's the Contrarian Fund chart...

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-15-19, 10:05 AM

Whatever she won: She deserves it

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 11:25 AM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

974

15-Sep

TEX +185

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 11:31 AM

Here's the NFL I picked up earlier...

Originally posted by KVB

Picked up a couple of NFL plays so far...

272 Wash +5 (-105)

270 MIA +19 (-110)

283 NO/LAR OVER 52 (-108)
...

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 11:56 AM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added...

955	15-Sep	MIL +129
961		MIA +147

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 12:24 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

972

15-Sep

KC +1.5 (+140)

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-15-19, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by KVB

**turtledoves** · 09-15-19, 03:05 PM

looking at oakland

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 03:08 PM

Went ahead and picked up...

282 OAKLAND +265

And opened a 4 piock open parlay with OAK +10.5 (-204) as the opener.

Go Raiduhhhs!!!

282 - NFLFootball
Oakland Raiders Moneyline+265 for Game

Oakland Raiders Spread +10½-204Buying 4 Pts for Game

Bills and Niners 2-0, crazy world.

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

looking at oakland

lol, was making those buys when you posted.

It's a gamble, so don't go big, but I say go for it as it goes against so many different market metrics it's ridiculous.

Those are the extremes to fade in the NFL.

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 03:12 PM

If my NFL plays go in the hole, I might go ahead and track them all.

I like to show how in order to win over time, many strategies have to endure shakeouts or down and sideways markets.

I think I've shown in MLB just what that can look like, including shakeouts. Most don't realize what I really mean when I talk about patience, discipline and money management.

To many those are buzzwords, but to me, it's the essence of success.

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 03:21 PM

If you look carefully, you'll see it.

But it goes by quick...

Did you see it? That ass?

Did you see that ass ^^^^?

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 03:22 PM

NCAAF Lines coming out, going need to get ready for the early bullets to fly...

**turtledoves** · 09-15-19, 03:47 PM

missed oak, going for a bears over 37.5

**turtledoves** · 09-15-19, 03:48 PM

the faster the fall, the faster the rise

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-15-19, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by KVB

If you look carefully, you'll see it.

But it goes by quick...

Did you see it? That ass?

Did you see that ass ^^^^?

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-15-19, 03:51 PM

I picked up Oakland earlier in the week.

+7.5

Let's cash this shit, Boyz.

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 04:24 PM

Raiders took the lead early, of course.

Seriously thinking about another LIVE trading buy back Fund. I do this, but rarely post it.

You know how I hate to lead early, that's because I can identify a certain subset of plays that are doomed and the probability of being doomed actually, somewhat is a function of how much and how fast the team leads early.

I've mentioned a metric concerning comebacks. I win some, I lose some, as always.

It gets more difficult as the season progresses the opens up early again in the playoffs, only to get difficult again. The playoffs is like a mini season but the first few weeks of the season are by far the most predictable.

You can measure it, to an certain extent, and that's why I say it's not what they bring, it's how the bring it.

Left or right?

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-15-19, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Left or right?

This is tough.

I guess I will take left and you can have right.

Then maybe later we will swap.

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 04:52 PM

Good look there, DDD.

The left is clearly the aggressive one, with that forward knee and hands to the head.

Speaking of head, I bet that left one will go right to it.

I wonder if they do amazon style...

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-15-19, 04:53 PM

4 unanswered TDs.

JFC

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 04:55 PM

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-15-19, 05:00 PM

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 05:09 PM

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 05:20 PM

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has picked up...

339

21-Sep

W MICHIGAN +5.5 (-110)

I also picked up +5 (-105) in the low juice side.

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 06:56 PM

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 632 plays...

955	15-Sep	MIL +129	1.29
961		MIA +147	-1
974		TEX +185	-1

		Sun	-0.71

		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Weeks 6-10	-1.23
		Weeks 11-15	-4.9
		Weeks 16-20	6.19
		Week 21	4.49
		Week 22	0.58
		Week 23	-10.25
		Week 24	-0.17
		Mon	1.6
		Tue	0.97
		Wed	3.91
		Thu	3.14
		Fri	-3
		Sat	-1

		Total	-1.7

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund through 111 plays...

926	10-Sep	BAL +1.5 (+200)	-1
922	14-Sep	KC +1.5 (+195)	-1
972	15-Sep	KC +1.5 (+140)	-1

		Week 25	-3

		Weeks 1-5	-4.92
		Weeks 6-10	-4.59
		Weeks 11-15	4.86
		Weeks 16-20	-4.55
		Week 21	-1.13
		Week 22	3.21
		Week 23	-5.85
		Week 24	-1.13

		Total	-17.1

Not much of a turn around here this season for the RL Fund.

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 06:59 PM

Here come some NCAAF results...

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 07:01 PM

The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund was 2-2 or -.1 units in week 3 and here it is with links to every play and a crude closing line comparison...

				1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC
	Record	Date	NCAAF Totals Fund	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average

136	0-1	29-Aug	G TECH/CLEMSON UNDER 61.5 (-105)	-1	60.5	Y	1
158	0-2	30-Aug	PURDUE/NEVADA UNDER 58.5 (-105)	-1	58.5	PUSH	0
181	0-3	31-Aug	SC/NC OVER 63 (-105)	-1	62	N	-1
216	0-3-1	1-Sep	HOU/OK UNDER 80 (-105)	0	80.5	N	-0.5
312	1-3-1	7-Sep	ARMY/MICH UNDER 48 (-105)	0.95	48	PUSH	0
376	1-4-1		NEVADA/OREGON UNDER 61.5 (-105)	-1	62	N	-0.5
392	2-4-1		ORE ST/HAWAII UNDER 77.5 (-105)	0.95	78	N	-0.5
106	2-5-1	13-Sep	KANSAS/BC UNDER 51 (-105)	-1	51	PUSH	0
108	3-5-1		WASH ST/HOU UNDER 74.5 (-105)	0.95	74	Y	0.5
128	4-5-1	14-Sep	SDSU/N MEX ST UNDER 51 (-105)	0.95	51	PUSH	0
138	4-6-1		ALABAMA/SC UNDER 61.5 (-105)	-1	59.5	Y	2

	4-6-1		Total	-2.2		3-4-4	0.091

Not too worried here.

This is last year's chart, which saw little time in the negative, so I'm not surprised there's an early season pullback, especially in week 1...

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 07:02 PM

The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund was 3-3 also for -.1 units in week 3 and here's the summary with links to each play and a crude closing line comparison.

	Record	Date	NCAAF ATS/ML Fund	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ATS
	ATS			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average

141	1-0	29-Aug	KENT ST +24.5 (-105)	0.95	24.5	PUSH	0
144	1-1		BYU +6.5 (-105)	-1	5	Y	1.5
235	2-1		S DAKOTA ST +15.5 (-110)	0.91	14.5	Y	1
150	2-2	30-Aug	S FLORIDA +10.5 (-105)	-1	10	Y	0.5
161	3-2	31-Aug	FAU +27.5 (-105)	0.95	28	N	-0.5
183	3-3		Duke +33.5 (-105)	-1	33.5	PUSH	0
204	3-4		PIT +2.5 (+100)	-1	2.5	PUSH	0
319	3-5	7-Sep	WV +14 (-107)	-1	13.5	Y	0.5
334	3-6		CLEMSON -16.5 (-105)	-1	16	N	-0.5
349	4-6		SDSU +9 (-105)	0.95	7.5	Y	1.5
360	4-7		FAU +10.5 (-102)	-1	13.5	N	-3
364	4-8		KANSAS -7 (-110)	-1	7	PUSH	0
389	4-8-1		MINNESOTA -3 (-110)	0	3	PUSH	0
110	4-9-1	14-Sep	INDIANA +18 (-105)	-1	17.5	Y	0.5
114	5-9-1		WV +7 (-105)	0.95	7	PUSH	0
116	6-9-1		TEMPLE +7 (-105)	0.95	5	Y	2
121	7-9-1		E MICHIGAN +7 (+100)	1	7	PUSH	0
150	7-10-1		TULSA +14 (-103)	-1	14	PUSH	0
164	7-11-1		BGSU +12 (-105)	-1	12.5	N	-0.5

	7-11-1		Total	-4.34		7-4-8	0.157895

We're starting to get enough instances to make a chart for this year but note that at the 19th play last year, this Fund was -5.24 units (that is the 20th point on the chart because point 1 is 0 for illustrative purposes...

**KVB** · 09-15-19, 07:04 PM

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket was 4-2 for week 3, but the record matters little as this is a moneyline fund, so it had 6 plays for +2.7 units.

Here's the summary with links to each play and a crude closing line comparison...

	Date	NCAAF UPSET Basket	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ML
			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average

133	29-Aug	UCLA +140	-1	116	Y	0.25
137		FL INT +135	-1	128	Y	0.07
147	30-Aug	UTAH ST +150	-1	174	N	-0.24
175	31-Aug	MISSISSIPPI +145	-1	139	Y	0.06
193		SMU +140	1.4	105	Y	0.35
281		ILLINOIS ST +155	-1	220	N	-0.65
305	7-Sep	OHIO +160	-1	161	N	-0.01
317		SYRACUSE +115	-1	102	Y	0.13
343		ARKANSAS ST +115	1.15	-106	Y	0.21
355		N TEXAS +160	-1	152	Y	0.08
357		BYU +145	1.45	134	Y	0.11
385		STANFORD +135	-1	146	N	-0.11
401		KENNESAW ST -110	-1	165	N	-0.75
409		S ILLINOIS +145	1.45	190	N	-0.45
103	13-Sep	NC +150	-1	132	Y	0.18
125	14-Sep	AIR FORCE +155	1.55	130	Y	0.25
133		AKRON +140	-1	119	Y	0.21
153		IOWA -125	0.8	-123	N	-0.02
167		S MISS +130	1.3	130	PUSH	0.00
185		TCU +105	1.05	-155	Y	0.60

		Total	-1.85		12-7-1	0.014

If we remove those three added market games of Illinois St on Aug. 31st and Kennesaw and S Illinois on Sep 7th then we have a closing line average of .125.