Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[KVB]

Wow that's a lot of bewbz

[Da Manster!]

[KVB]

WTF just happened in this thread?

Manster??????

Maaaansterrrrr?????????????????

Maaaaaaansterrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!??? ????!@$#%$#%$%$#^

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Thread is heating up now!

[Da Manster!]

WTF just happened in this thread?

Manster??????

Maaaansterrrrr?????????????????

Maaaaaaansterrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!??? ????!@$#%$#%$%$#^

I know, right?......I was just trollin' DDD for some LULZ!...

[turtledoves]

Rolex???

headband

[turtledoves]

[KVB]

[KVB]

The Velvet Pie I'm smoking right now came pre-measured in a glass jar with one of those two way humidity regulator pouches in it.

We've come a long way since the days of the two finger sack of brick weed.

That's for sure.

[KVB]

[turtledoves]

https://bovedainc.com/works/

https://www.heartfeltindustries.com/products.asp?cat=60%25+Rh+Humidity+Beads

https://www.jyarz.com/

dipping into the emergency blackberry grapes for some relief

[turtledoves]

heard stories of the thai sticks from some old timers

[KVB]

Blackberry Grapes, nice. I have a nug of Kimbo Kush stored in a little container stashed away.

In the jars they use the Bovedas actually, those are same the packets on the website there.

They taste really good, but they're a little harsh up the nose and when you burn a bowl of it.

[turtledoves]

harshness is disappointing, wonder if it will mellow out in the jars after a while. I guess it goes fast. who knows what they put in it

cool colors

https://grindersforlife.com

always ends the verses with some good lines

[KVB]

It's been a run, with profit all week.

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 623 plays...

909	12-Sep	PIT +102	1.02
912		PHI +112	1.12
924		LAD/BAL UNDER 10 (+100)	1
		Thu	3.14
		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Weeks 6-10	-1.23
		Weeks 11-15	-4.9
		Weeks 16-20	6.19
		Week 21	4.49
		Week 22	0.58
		Week 23	-10.25
		Week 24	-0.17
		Mon	1.6
		Tue	0.97
		Wed	3.91
		Total	3.01

There were no Contrarian RL plays today.

With about 7 units of mistakes, we should hitting the highs here but I think you get the idea with this chart, and the market tracking that it does.

Doves, for this and the NCAAF market functions, can we develop chart reading here, something solid? I'm working on it but some of it is just obvious with levels and patterns. The one thing we have going for us, it always goes up; we should relish the drops.

I rode an upswing with bigger bets and dropped them back down before that last drop. I did not raise the units again, the turn around was quick this time.

[KVB]

Contrarian Fund been on a run, do we short it over the short term?

Some interesting thoughts there. Shorting is not passing, it's going the other way.

Working on some math behind it but the bottom line is you can't gain an edge just by changing the bet. The charts need regressions.

Tracking your bets and why you make them suddenly opens up a whole new world.

It's taken me years to get to this point at SBR, as we generate instances, we can just keep it growing.

Football is next and we have one year of closing line comparisons and results, we'll keep that running this year.

[KVB]

Going to post the NCAAF Funds results after the first two weeks. There were only two Funds in action in week 1.

It's a slow start for the Totals Fund, but with last years run it isn't surprising. Totals tend to be a weaker market here, even if this Fund isn't hitting openers, and we should get the best of them by season's end.

Here's the KVB NCAAF Totals Fund with links to every play and a crude closing line comparison that does not include pricing and movement through key numbers. I'll address that later.

				1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC
	Record	Date	NCAAF Totals Fund	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
136	0-1	29-Aug	G TECH/CLEMSON UNDER 61.5 (-105)	-1	60.5	Y	1
158	0-2	30-Aug	PURDUE/NEVADA UNDER 58.5 (-105)	-1	58.5	PUSH	0
181	0-3	31-Aug	SC/NC OVER 63 (-105)	-1	62	N	-1
216	0-3-1	1-Sep	HOU/OK UNDER 80 (-105)	0	80.5	N	-0.5
312	1-3-1	7-Sep	ARMY/MICH UNDER 48 (-105)	0.95	48	PUSH	0
376	1-4-1		NEVADA/OREGON UNDER 61.5 (-105)	-1	62	N	-0.5
392	2-4-1		ORE ST/HAWAII UNDER 77.5 (-105)	0.95	78	N	-0.5
	2-4-1		Total	-2.1		1-4-2	-0.214

[KVB]

Here's the KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund with links to every play and the crude closing line comparison. The Fund was 3-4 for -1.19 units in week 1 and 1-4-1 for -3.05 units in week 2.

	Record	Date	NCAAF ATS/ML Fund	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ATS
	ATS			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
141	1-0	29-Aug	KENT ST +24.5 (-105)	0.95	24.5	PUSH	0
144	1-1		BYU +6.5 (-105)	-1	5	Y	1.5
235	2-1		S DAKOTA ST +15.5 (-110)	0.91	14.5	Y	1
150	2-2	30-Aug	S FLORIDA +10.5 (-105)	-1	10	Y	0.5
161	3-2	31-Aug	FAU +27.5 (-105)	0.95	28	N	-0.5
183	3-3		Duke +33.5 (-105)	-1	33.5	PUSH	0
204	3-4		PIT +2.5 (+100)	-1	2.5	PUSH	0
319	3-5	7-Sep	WV +14 (-107)	-1	13.5	Y	0.5
334	3-6		CLEMSON -16.5 (-105)	-1	16	N	-0.5
349	4-6		SDSU +9 (-105)	0.95	7.5	Y	1.5
360	4-7		FAU +10.5 (-102)	-1	13.5	N	-3
364	4-8		KANSAS -7 (-110)	-1	7	PUSH	0
389	4-8-1		MINNESOTA -3 (-110)	0	3	PUSH	0
	4-8-1		Total	-4.24		5-3-5	0.076923

We've seen this slow start before, here's last year's performance chart...

[KVB]

Here's the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund with links to every play and a crude closing line comparison. A couple of those added market games, the high vig low volume issues will make that clv average move a bit either way...

				1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC
	Record	Date	NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
385	0-1	7-Sep	STANFORD +3.5 (-115)	-1	3	Y	0.5
387	1-1		CAL +14 (-110)	0.91	13.5	Y	0.5
401	1-2		KENNESAW ST +1.5 (-120)	-1	3.5	N	-2
423	1-3		G WEBB +28 (-120)	-1	31	N	-3
425	2-3		MAINE +10.5 (-120)	0.83	7.5	Y	3
427	2-4		NC A&T +29.5 (-120)	-1	27.5	Y	2
	2-4		Total	-2.26		4-2	0.166667

This Fund never went negative last year, let's hope it doesn't go sideways or negative in order to subsidize the payout in the Visiting Dog ML Fund this year.

Here's last year's Visiting Dog Fund performance...

[KVB]

Here's the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket with links to every play and a crude closing line comparison. This Fund was -3.6 units with 6 plays in week 1 and -.95 units with 8 plays in week 2...

	Date	NCAAF UPSET Basket	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ML
			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
133	29-Aug	UCLA +140	-1	116	Y	0.25
137		FL INT +135	-1	128	Y	0.07
147	30-Aug	UTAH ST +150	-1	174	N	-0.24
175	31-Aug	MISSISSIPPI +145	-1	139	Y	0.06
193		SMU +140	1.4	105	Y	0.35
281		ILLINOIS ST +155	-1	220	N	-0.65
305	7-Sep	OHIO +160	-1	161	N	-0.01
317		SYRACUSE +115	-1	102	Y	0.13
343		ARKANSAS ST +115	1.15	-106	Y	0.21
355		N TEXAS +160	-1	152	Y	0.08
357		BYU +145	1.45	134	Y	0.11
385		STANFORD +135	-1	146	N	-0.11
401		KENNESAW ST -110	-1	165	N	-0.75
409		S ILLINOIS +145	1.45	190	N	-0.45
		Total	-4.55		8-6	-0.068

Illinois St on Aug 31st and the last two plays, Kennesaw St and S Illinois qualified for buyback as the line moved away from us.

I want to address this topic.

There are times the UPSET Basket generates plays that get away from us in the market. While value might seem to get better, truthfully with this function, if we had waited we wouldn't be buying the play. In the past it didn't matter, we took the good with the bad, saw the avg against the close drop, took profit, but a little less; and we lived with it.

Last year, the Fund was up +2.5 UNITS but we can see that 5 UNITS were lost to these plays. So when I talk about sideways markets, our level right now is a little lower than this effect from years past.

I am considering starting an UPSET Basket Buyback Fund. I often say that I feel a play will lose but who are we to say what individual plays will lose or not, so we take our lumps. The Buyback might be an attempt to identify some plays that will go sour for the Fund and just minimize the damage.

This would create two tracking rows. One would be the buybacks, which should always be negative. I doubt we make a move to gain units there, but a component like that isn't out of the question. The other tracking row is all the plays not involved in a buyback. By removing the buyback plays, the performance against the closing line will inevitably go higher, as should the Units won. The effect on the closing line could be significant, as we would be buying back well before the close, before the number even got further away from us.

There are pitfalls. Numbers can move and move back, and we can give up some winning plays. It's a tough call.

I mentioned that I jumped the gun with Illinois State and that play certainly would have been a buyback, and it lost. It moved further and now it will hurt the avg against the close. We would have minimized the damage there with a buyback, in this case.

If I do start an UPSET Basket Buyback Fund, there will also be one for the Fund with larger upsets...

I am not buying these back at this point but we are watching this market function closely.

It is a function and I want to put this year's opening drop into some context. Again, we are expecting the Visiting Dog ML Fund, the larger upsets, to do well this year and we could see this Function, like the Visiting Dog Fund, help subsidize that. Let's hope everyone gets positive.

Again, for context, here's a long term chart and last year's chart...





Some of these smaller added games that are folding into the main rotations may be cause for concern and may eat into profit, but not make the Fund negative by themselves.

Only market cycles can make these Functions negative, and only for so long.

[KVB]

Fuk, I accidentally bought the big upsets again in one of the accounts, not realizing I had already done that there...

It was a good thing, 2 out of 3 of those plays hit.

Here's the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog ML Fund with links to each play and a crude closer comparison...

	Date	NCAAF Visting Dog ML	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ML
			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
361	7-Sep	W KENTUCKY +265	2.65	262	Y	0.03
373		ARKANSAS +230	-1	194	Y	0.36
387		CAL +415	4.15	447	Y	0.32
		Total	5.8		3-0	0.24

I'm not really surprised at the fast start and if I were posting and tracking unit increases and decreases as we move in and out of Funds, I think you know I expected some gain here.

Here is the opening post on this Fund...

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog ML Fund, like some of the other funds, seeks to exploit the inefficiencies of road underdog market. This is another moneyline basket of bets that uses stacking percentages forecasts along with market analysis to determine if we have enough value in the marketplace to pull the trigger.

The moneylines are slightly larger dog bets and therefore we expect to lose more bets than we win. Sometimes it takes patience to get the win. I expect close to 120 plays and this tracking can be used as a gauge of that market. This is a market function but doesn’t quite look like the UPSET basket because while patience for the win can be true for a season, it’s also true over the longer haul. When this market does get hot, it gets hot.

Early season stacking forecasts should not do as well as when the market matures but just like the UPSET basket, evidence over the years shows the difference isn’t enough to overcome the market analysis of the early season.

Here's the long term chart going back to 2005, like the UPSET Basket function, and notice market drops have always recovered. The bigger drops and recoveries are the broader nature of a Fund that will win about 30% of it's bets bet get paid with a positive expected value for those bets won...



The exciting thing here is that last season was negative units (-7), which has happened only twice by seasons end since the beginning.

What makes it exciting is that last season saw drop of 30 UNITS mid season, 10 of those units were made back by season end.

Here's last year's performance chart in units....



I think we go sideways and upward over the next few seasons and I think it's a good idea to jump into this Fund now.

Of course, we expect big things from the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog ML Fund but we must remember that this a bigger moneyline Fund and recognize that the odds of each play winning are far less, but we're getting paid what we think is value for that play...

[KVB]

Here's the NCAAF Summary of Funds through Week 2 with links to each Fund's individual summary...

Week 2	NCAAF	Week 2		Season	to Date
	Funds	# Plays	Units	# Plays	Units
	Totals	3	0.9	7	-2.1
	ATS/ML	6	-3.05	13	-4.24
	UPSET Basket	8	-0.95	14	-4.55
	Visiting Dog	6	-2.26	6	-2.26
	Visiting Dog ML	3	5.8	3	5.8
	Total:	26	0.44	43	-7.35

[KVB]

Here are the current pending plays and links to the plays for the NCAAF Funds...

		UPSET Basket
103	13-Sep	NC +150
125	14-Sep	AIR FORCE +155
133		AKRON +140
153		IOWA -125
167		S MISS +130
185		TCU +105
		Visitng Dog ML
133	14-Sep	AKRON +195
139		E CAROLINA +235
189		FLORIDA ST +240
		Visiting Dog
117	14-Sep	MIA (OH) +16 (-105)
133		AKRON +6 (-105)
147		UNLV +20 (-105)
171		OHIO +5.5 (-105)
225		WEBER ST +10 (-120)
233		MISSOURI ST +29 (-120)

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up...

106		13-Sep	KANSAS/BC UNDER 51 (-105)
108			WASH ST/HOU UNDER 74.5 (-105)
128		14-Sep	SDSU/N MEX ST UNDER 51 (-105)
138			ALABAMA/SC UNDER 61.5 (-105)

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has picked up...

110		14-Sep	INDIANA +18 (-105)
114			WV +7 (-105)
116			TEMPLE +7 (-105)
121			E MICHIGAN +7 (+100)
150			TULSA +14 (-103)
164			BGSU +12 (-105)

[KVB]

Busy trying to undress these markets.

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

957	13-Sep	MIL +115
968		DET -110
976		LAA +124

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[turtledoves]

[turtledoves]

working on the dopest chart you've ever seen

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[KVB]

[KVB]

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Crack addict I guess.

[DiggityDaggityDo]