Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Enkhbat]

I think this rally keeps going for at least throughout this week, possibly for 2-3 weeks.

[d2bets]

I think this rally keeps going for at least throughout this week, possibly for 2-3 weeks.

Already had a 2.5 week rally. 2-3 MORE weeks? If it rallies for 2-3 weeks more like it has the last 2-3 weeks we'll be at a new high. Seems literally impossible. Could drift higher, I guess, but just don't see how there isn't more potential downside than upside in the near-term.

[Enkhbat]

Trump is talking about opening up the economy on May 1st. If they announce the shutdown will continue then the market will go down.

Also Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to cut oil production. What impact does it have on the market?

[d2bets]

Trump is talking about opening up the economy on May 1st. If they announce the shutdown will continue then the market will go down.

Also Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to cut oil production. What impact does it have on the market?

First of all, Trump doesn't control that.

Second, Trump says a lot of crap that doesn't happen.

Third, it's not going to fully open up right away or anything close to it.

The virus is going to dictate what happens, not Trump. Until the virus is eradicated, it's always going to be an overhang on everything. A second wave is predictable.

And I just think you have to look at current levels and see what a 10% increase or decrease looks like. 10% increase means we've basically got back all of the losses for the year. With everything still overhanging. Makes no sense. There was many to be made a few weeks ago. But now, the upside is pretty limited. And there are still plenty of bad news cycles to come.

[pavyracer]

If Trumps shuts his pie hole this week the market will stabilize. But he will find a way to ruin it.

[homie1975]

DOW down 310 in the pre for a 1.31% drop but means nothing as we know in terms of what tomorrow's action might look like

SPX down 1.44%

NQ down 1.44% as well

this week beginning Tue we have banks reporting

next week the heavyweights

several sectors will be obviously have horrendous earnings however sectors like Tech, Financial and FinTech, and BioTech, should be just fine. what we have seen in the past, though, is that when there is massive bleed out in one or two sectors, it can pull everyone down with it as the Fear Index goes berserk. it might be irrational but it is what it is and we need to be prepped for it.

GL this week gents

[Slurry Pumper]

DOW down 310 in the pre for a 1.31% drop but means nothing as we know in terms of what tomorrow's action might look like

SPX down 1.44%

NQ down 1.44% as well

this week beginning Tue we have banks reporting

next week the heavyweights

several sectors will be obviously have horrendous earnings however sectors like Tech, Financial and FinTech, and BioTech, should be just fine. what we have seen in the past, though, is that when there is massive bleed out in one or two sectors, it can pull everyone down with it as the Fear Index goes berserk. it might be irrational but it is what it is and we need to be prepped for it.

GL this week gents

I agree the bad earnings from one sector will affect the market and probably drag on the sectors that are doing O.K. As the market slides down, look for relative strength and pick up those stocks. I would stay away from the Oil and oil services sectors as this freak show isn't done doing their business just yet and with the world demand down to all time lows right now would make me think that these sectors are just stay away plays for now.

[d2bets]

Suspect we might be on a walkback down (not necessarily a flash crash) the next couple weeks. Last few weeks were accelerated by short squeezes IMO causing a large overshot to the upside. 2200 to 2800 S&P was kinda crazy. Again, 2800 S&P is ahead of the May 31, 2019 close. wtf so we haven't even lost 10 months of gains.

[MinnesotaFats]

Finally Wall Street realizing that nobody has any money.

Ford warns, they tank. Why...because NOBODY is buying a car in 2020 unless its dramatically underpriced.

CAT cuts guidance. Why, because there's not going to be ANY new projects in 20 or 21. Might bet a mid term infrastructure bill in 22 that'll help.

Banks earnings should be interesting going fwd....but as business struggles to save its dividends by cutting staff, the boomerang effect is no consumers have any money.

It's that simple...if working class people 18-60 don't have money to spend, we dont have an economy. Giving stimulous to SSI and SSD people or people who use mass transit or go to school still is a fukking waste. The government WASTED the stimulus already...the market and US companies ain't gonna bounce back from it anytime soon.

[jjgold]

Market will be dead for a very very long time

Stay away from it

[chico2663]

I agree the bad earnings from one sector will affect the market and probably drag on the sectors that are doing O.K. As the market slides down, look for relative strength and pick up those stocks. I would stay away from the Oil and oil services sectors as this freak show isn't done doing their business just yet and with the world demand down to all time lows right now would make me think that these sectors are just stay away plays for now.

totally disagree. bought mro for 3.99. no way they are going bankrupt.

[Shafted69]

The Feds swooped in at 3:30 PM ET again. lol.

[jjgold]

Long bear market

[Snowball]

IGT
WIMHY
BYD
MGM
SGMS
ERI
PENN
MSG
BBBY
LUB
DRI
M
HIBB
PLAY
SIX
GVA
EWI
CNK
RLH
AMC
PK
INN
GE

^eyes on these^

[Enkhbat]

Why do you have eyes on those? what are you expecting?

[homie1975]

Snowball - thanks for posting.

Josher - what are you eyeing stocks-wise?

[homie1975]

Wells fargo reported 1 penny.

[asiagambler]

Long bear market

Yes I think will be several years

[milwaukee mike]

some new developments in stocks i follow

amc - assholes at b. riley cut the price target to $0.25... i would buy the bonds with both hands at 28 cents on the dollar
play - issuing more stock, that puts a floor on the stock but also a ceiling... options will be easy money but premiums are gonna really shrink

[Slurry Pumper]

Believe it or not the S&P 500 is butting right up against the 50 day moving average at around 2850. I rather doubt that it can sustain this level and moving up over the 50 day is probably not going to happen. The Fed, and other government officials are really trying to swoop in an prop up the market so lets see how long they can do that. Also today's rally is not being led by the financial sector which is rare for a rally not to be led by this sector. If I had to guess, I see a sell off going into the close, but who knows everything is fake now and it truely is a gamble on a day to day basis. I'm still short the financial sector with XLF for a short term play, and I also picked up a few more shares of BA for long term (+5 years) action at just below $150. As far as tech goes, I am just going to buy the basket of q's because I still don't trust the tech boom as a play. I always hate most of the tech sector stock fundamentals so I shy away from the play in favor of some other play, but the big winners out of this pandemic will be from the tech sector going for the next year.

[homie1975]

Slurry
great insight and please keep posting.

[d2bets]

Believe it or not the S&P 500 is butting right up against the 50 day moving average at around 2850. I rather doubt that it can sustain this level and moving up over the 50 day is probably not going to happen. The Fed, and other government officials are really trying to swoop in an prop up the market so lets see how long they can do that. Also today's rally is not being led by the financial sector which is rare for a rally not to be led by this sector. If I had to guess, I see a sell off going into the close, but who knows everything is fake now and it truely is a gamble on a day to day basis. I'm still short the financial sector with XLF for a short term play, and I also picked up a few more shares of BA for long term (+5 years) action at just below $150. As far as tech goes, I am just going to buy the basket of q's because I still don't trust the tech boom as a play. I always hate most of the tech sector stock fundamentals so I shy away from the play in favor of some other play, but the big winners out of this pandemic will be from the tech sector going for the next year.

It just seems to me that the near-term (days, weeks and months) upside potential from here is very limited while the downside potential from here is very substantial.

[Slurry Pumper]

It just seems to me that the near-term (days, weeks and months) upside potential from here is very limited while the downside potential from here is very substantial.

Yeah this seems like a dangerous time to be blowing the wad on stocks going long unless you plan on holding for the next year at least. I'll be much more comfortable shorting for short term plays off of market rallys.

[homie1975]

Yeah this seems like a dangerous time to be blowing the wad on stocks going long unless you plan on holding for the next year at least. I'll be much more comfortable shorting for short term plays off of market rallys.

i'm going to measure my orders from mid feb through now, in 5 years on saint patrick's day march 17, 2025.

[Enkhbat]

It is strange to see it going up even though 6 million people lose their job every week lol. I guess there is no correlation between employment and S@P 500

[chico2663]

It is strange to see it going up even though 6 million people lose their job every week lol. I guess there is no correlation between employment and S@P 500

Most are poor have no stocks. The small business up to 10000 people on munchin definition. These companies will do what they want. Reminds me of when W. Started a reinvestment for companies to hire and school new employees. Carly and compact laid people off bought back stock and gave themself a raise.

[d2bets]

Finally Wall Street realizing that nobody has any money.

Ford warns, they tank. Why...because NOBODY is buying a car in 2020 unless its dramatically underpriced.

CAT cuts guidance. Why, because there's not going to be ANY new projects in 20 or 21. Might bet a mid term infrastructure bill in 22 that'll help.

Banks earnings should be interesting going fwd....but as business struggles to save its dividends by cutting staff, the boomerang effect is no consumers have any money.

It's that simple...if working class people 18-60 don't have money to spend, we dont have an economy. Giving stimulous to SSI and SSD people or people who use mass transit or go to school still is a fukking waste. The government WASTED the stimulus already...the market and US companies ain't gonna bounce back from it anytime soon.

Market has already bounced back. What's going on here?

[milwaukee mike]

Yeah this seems like a dangerous time to be blowing the wad on stocks going long unless you plan on holding for the next year at least. I'll be much more comfortable shorting for short term plays off of market rallys.

people have been saying that for weeks, and yet stocks like mik/penn/bhr-b/etc keep having huge up day, after huge up day

it was dangerous to buy mik for $1 but now it's $2.80... was dangerous to buy penn at 3.75 but now it's $14.80... etc etc

nobody thought it was dumb to buy penn for $50 but now everyone thinks it's dumb at 14 lolol

so many easy triples in this market from here

[homie1975]

^ we cannot argue with Mike on those particular stocks

[d2bets]

I think today was the "blowoff top" on the bear rally. Donwhill for awhile from here, boys. Trump back to puming the market is cherry on that cake. Sell signal. IMO. S&P back to low 2,500's by the end of the month.

[SBR_Guest_Pro]

stay away from movie theatres. Going to be hard for them to recover and compete against netflix and comcast etc

[MinnesotaFats]

LOL

this boggles my mind

Dow set to drop 800 today on bad retail earnings.

How in the actual fukk did anyone NOT price this in already.

Seriously, some of these analysts are such bulls they grasp at any straw to exaggerate good news. There was nothing in the news cycle last 6 weeks that said buy. Every up day coincided w the fed pumping money into the system. At some point reality has to set in and this has to tank to 2014 levels.... that's just the real value if it all.

[d2bets]

LOL

this boggles my mind

Dow set to drop 800 today on bad retail earnings.

How in the actual fukk did anyone NOT price this in already.

Seriously, some of these analysts are such bulls they grasp at any straw to exaggerate good news. There was nothing in the news cycle last 6 weeks that said buy. Every up day coincided w the fed pumping money into the system. At some point reality has to set in and this has to tank to 2014 levels.... that's just the real value if it all.

Yep. Not sure I agree with 2014 level, but we are headed back down now. Short squeeze is over and market was way overbought. Rest of the week could be ugly. Maybe a weak retest of March lows, but may not quite get there.

[Roscoe_Word]

I thought we might be goin on a run, but it looks like a bad day.

[d2bets]

I thought we might be goin on a run, but it looks like a bad day.

That's how they get you thinking. There was a run, it's over. Sell now if you're holding.