Good content.
This guy called current market trends, weeks in advance.
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Good content.
This guy called current market trends, weeks in advance.
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I can see your desire to protect some profits here and I can't fault that. I'm still full in until the 20 SMA is broken. Its foot on the gas until and unless it comes back to the 20 SMA at around 30 in the day or so and breaks down from that spot, I'm all the way out then until it drops down to the 25 area to find support which will just happen to be the 50 SMA and a former stopping point for a little bit for the run.Comment -
To be a bear or not to be.
The rising VIX tells us to expect choppy markets ahead for a spell. But if you look at the the SnP top 100 you can make a better bull case than bear case for most.
Bottom line it's not time to start playing The Big Short Part II.
It's coming. Stay defensive. Raise some cash. I just bought a slug of 18 month Pemex bonds paying 2.4%. Terribly boring but very liquid.Comment -
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The trend is your friend until you find your other friend with his hands up the trend's skirt. At that point you will be ready to move on and find a different trend to hang with. The 10 and the 20 are pretty close by one another with probably only a buck separating them. After running up and eating some time off the clock in a bull flag formation, it pays off with yet another breakout. Up in no man's land is tough to find a resistance level so this is why I wait until the 20 is broken. Will it go lower than the 20? Rest assured yes it will, but no one really can predict when that will occur so I stick with it full on until it gives me a reason not to.Comment -
Honestly neither are doing much. We just had most of the earnings come out and bad news on Covid. I'd argue there is not much to see there.
To make the bear case you really have to get creative and claim valuations can't support this high of prices. It's not enough.
Money has to go somewhere. I bought some Edison bonds 2027 yielding 3.05%. Their common stock yields 5%. Until that dynamic tightens I think the bulls have it.Comment -
"I FOUND $40,000 IN GEMSTONES 3 HOURS!!"
Looks like fun.
...Comment -
So it looks like my gamble of hanging onto the XLF calls I got is going to pay off this morning. Finally it looks like the chart will get above that pesky 50 DMA of $36.89 and is challenging a resistance level of $37.13. If it can close today above the 50 DMA, I'll keep it for tomorrow's turn around Tuesday session but will unload if it dips below the 20DMA which happens to be about 15 cents above where I started the whole thing at $36.56. Its a wide range but I'm not going to be able to sit and watch today so I put everything on autopilot. I really think it is going to $38 this week. Maybe not today, but maybe by Wednesday or Thursday. Either way at that point I will have to bail since they expire on Friday.Comment -
And now a word from the Robinhood of wall street...
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This guy is like sooo many. He's right in his macro analysis of the fed and economy and wrong on his strategy for making money.
He's a bear that can't understand why the bulls keep winning.
If you look at the SnP 100 company by company nearly to a man you will see increasing profits & book values. Companies are becoming more valuable even though the macro economy is fragile.
Don't fight reality. The bears will have their day eventually.Comment -
Covid cases in US expected to peak Mid August...however, the case projection has noticeably risen the last 2 weeks. But again, the real number to watch is hospital use and deaths, which are not projected as of now to reach lockdown mandating levels. Govt health officials have consistently indicated there posture is miving towards treating covid as endemic. I will keep watching how this plays out along with US10Y which is showing signs of bottoming.
US10Y hit a buy 9, I am expecting 13 before it does an about face. This coincides with covid cases peaking as well, so, passing the covid peak, getting a reversal on US10Y, all will be bullish signs for US economic health recoveryComment -
We continue to reach new highs but I think it's the start of a pattern here, I see a shoulder turning into a head as the value of these plays on payout slowly recedes. The purple circle represent my removal of 50% of the assets, similar to the yellow dot, where I predicted the short term sideays to downward market earlier in the season...
If I'm right, Slurry's indicators will get him out about the same level as I reduced, but on the other side of the mountain.
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No sooner do I put up the what if for the day before I go and f\*\*k off for an entire day of fun and frolic, then the market takes a dump. So since the XLF actually closed below $36.56. In reality it made it down to $36.48 before running back up to close at $36.52 in the very last minute of the day. You may be calling me a liar when I tell you that I still have these options in my account after I told you my stop price. Well the explanation is that I make a stop price contingent on an hourly close and since the last hourly close happened, the automatic trigger hasn't had a chance to trigger yet because I also barred it from aftermarket trades. Either way I would like to use this a teachable moment.
It is good to put in a stop price for every stock, but you need to put them in with the caveat of a daily or hourly close. So for instance if I had a stock with a stop price of $10 and during the hour the price dips below $10 to $9.50, but closes the hour above the $10 mark, the sell will not trigger. What this does for you is protect you against the big market boys who see all of the stop orders down at certain level. They run the price down to just below that level so they can pick up all of those stop orders before the price gets ripped back up. How many times has that happened to you and you say WTF the price came down to my stop price and then ripped right the f\*\*k back up like 5 minutes later. I can tell you if you've been watching the charts and reading the tape correctly, investors will put their stops in just below breakout lows and other support lines and the big market movers know this and can see the future stop orders. In any given stock the small investors all sitting at a spot can represent a shytload of shares just sitting there waiting for the easy money to be had.
I'm telling you to still use those stop prices but use them after hourly closes or even daily closes. This will help protect you from the sharks in the water looking at all the open orders at lower price levels. They run the price down, pick up the stops from all the smaller investors, and then run the price right back up to turn a quick buck on your back. Don't let it happen to you again.Comment -
All I can say is that it is hard to pick tops. I also understand that no one goes broke taking profits along the way, so to each his own and I play it the same way sometimes. If this is a top, its been 1 hell of a run and if I believe that there weren't any good reasons for it, I might turn when the 20 DMA get broke to short on the way down until it gets to the 50 or 100 DMA. I don't believe this is the case however, its not like your some lucky punk who is on a lifetime run here. I suspect that there is at least a little if not a whole shyt load of data behind al lthe picks for the last month. This will keep me off the short play even knowing that the tape evens out somewhat over the long run.We continue to reach new highs but I think it's the start of a pattern here, I see a shoulder turning into a head as the value of these plays on payout slowly recedes. The purple circle represent my removal of 50% of the assets, similar to the yellow dot, where I predicted the short term sideays to downward market earlier in the season...
If I'm right, Slurry's indicators will get him out about the same level as I reduced, but on the other side of the mountain.
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It was an unfortunate downdraft for you Slurry. It happens. Futures are up a bit so who knows?
The bulls are staring at a turd in the party punch bowl with Covid II promising to be a hit. We could find the selling correlates with the number of new cases like the early days of Covid I.Comment -
Not all is lost I still have a sizable number of IWM puts that expire 9/17 and 10/15 with the same strike of 225. They've been in the money now for a few weeks and if the IWM can close the week below 215, that is a good sign that things are moving downward. I also have a bunch of puts also expiring 9/17 on USB, those I bought at 3.08 and I see today they closed at $5.15. So I'm actually more short than long in the longer term, I was just expecting the XLF to run up at some point. The chart still has a bull flag going on, it ran up from $35.25 to $36 bucks and is now eating time off the clock. I only go to Friday to do my deal so hopefully we see a true turn around Tuesday tomorrow.Comment -
Drifting lower seems to be the order of the day although a few buyers are sneaking in here.
You're a baller with those short term options ole Slurry. I've had no luck with the few Put trades I've made the past few years. New money is on the hunt after every pull back it seems.
Will Covid II be enough to cause new money to stay invested at 1%??? I don't know but it doesn't seem like it for now.Comment -
I think the buy the dip crowd is coming in right now to save me here just like I thought they would. My puts are taking a hit but I got another month for those to work. Just like last week, the rest of the week will probably be a rise to new highs after giving the scare to the market of falling. One of these days pretty soon I think the pullback will continue and we will have a correction. Before Sept 17 th of course.Comment -
MRNA on fire. Up 12% today. I didn't buy the call options though. Doh! PFE up as well. I think we're going to see a nice ramp up the next few weeks.Comment -
I've had PFE for years. I just checked my Fidelity and I bought at $21.92. I don't even look at it as I agree it doesn't move much. We could see a new wave the next few months and that could fuel a major run. I like some of the other drugs PFE has and I love the dividend but covid takes over the discussions.Comment -
It's been a rocky road for the 65 options I have left for XLF, but its in the money and yesterday's shake out operation almost had me selling in the hole. Key break down levels were tested yet again for like the 50th time this year but the buy the dip crowd showed up again with another goal line defense and up the markets went. Today there is a little downside to start the day again so we'll see if the roller coast ride continues here. If I get a pop in the morning, I'm selling half of the 65 left and then I'll probably hang on to the bitter end this Friday knowing that the probability of a floater going into the weekend is high.Comment -
Good luck baller Slurry. It's hard to figure out what will happen after the open. You got a tidy profit in there but it could be a red trade with a little downdraft.
I'll be shorting AMC and GME calls today like every day. Sold this one yesterday.
Hard to believe you can sell a call with 3 days left with a strike price that is double the stock price.
-GME 210806 C 300 CALL (GME) GAMESTOP CORPORATION AUG 06 21 $300 (100 SHS) -42.000 0.10 $397.60 $21.00 $1.40 08/04/2021 Comment -
Well even though they are worthless they are a margin call snafu when they start moving against you. I was short the AMC 40 when the stock was 12 and it ran up to 45 over 10 days. The options I had sold at .50 I was buying back for $9. Fugging basstards!
But overall I've made $5k -$20k a week on this trade since late Jan. It's winding down now. More like $2k a week now. The meme stock trade is just about history.Comment -
Slurry, I could be the case study here. At times it has almost seemed like they/someone was looking at my stops. Sorry to reiterate but my biggest blood letting was letting RIOT go from 6 to 3ish, trigger a stop of 450+ shares and then watch it soar. I recently lost a ton on NVDA when there was a short term dip , triggering my stop, and then a soar to the moon. I've played with my % stop and just can't seem to master it. BOL and Thanks for everything!Comment
I'll probably buy some call options if it goes down anymore. I think we're going to see MRNA be the standard.