Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[d2bets]

There's still so many talking heads on TV really signaling bullish trends yet.

I don't get it. The VIX is highest in 2 years, 3 major Counties re masked, Europe is a disaster and the Asia markets are getting blasted.

I wonder what happens if we see another 5% slip this week, the Fed has no play w rates and debt is already at a record.

The bottom 10% literally have 0 money right now, they're not working and they're not spending. It's crazy, those customers I deal with are just not doing anything because of the rent/ eviction moratorium lol....which is alot of the discretionary spending companies need for earnings.

Why would/should the Fed react to a 5% drop in the market? That would bring us back to levels not seen since like May.

The bottom 10% have never had money to spend. Jobs are certainly available for those able and wanting to work.

[RoyBacon]

Thank Gawd Biden and dems will get their biggest tax increase in history. That will fix everything. LOL

Muni’s and gold, a decent place to hide for a while.

[MinnesotaFats]

Why would/should the Fed react to a 5% drop in the market? That would bring us back to levels not seen since like May.

The bottom 10% have never had money to spend. Jobs are certainly available for those able and wanting to work.

Dude the Russel is down 10% last 4 weeks alone, another 2 today, 5 more hypothetical would be a 20% drop in a month, that requires attention. Furthermore, nothings stopped the Fed from moving in earlier on much smaller issues

[MinnesotaFats]

Thank Gawd Biden and dems will get their biggest tax increase in history. That will fix everything. LOL

Muni’s and gold, a decent place to hide for a while.

You like gold or the miners?

[Slurry Pumper]

Dude the Russel is down 10% last 4 weeks alone, another 2 today, 5 more hypothetical would be a 20% drop in a month, that requires attention. Furthermore, nothings stopped the Fed from moving in earlier on much smaller issues

I've been short the IWM for about that time. More to go too, if it snaps back this week, I'll add to the short play.

Gold and gold miners will be working soon but may see some short term pain.

[d2bets]

Dude the Russel is down 10% last 4 weeks alone, another 2 today, 5 more hypothetical would be a 20% drop in a month, that requires attention. Furthermore, nothings stopped the Fed from moving in earlier on much smaller issues

And it's still up now almost 10% YTD and MORE THAN DOUBLED from the March 2020 lows. Perspective.

[Slurry Pumper]

Here's how the AAPL thing worked out this morning.



Got in on the arrow #1, held for about and hour and a half before selling half at the 2nd arrow $143.42 (1%), then held on for another hour and got out at $143 for not a killer trade but I'll take the almost 1% on the investment for a couple of hour deal.

Notice how that knife stopped falling at $142. Well it did spike by about 50 cents but pretty much nailed it.

[trobin31]

Starting to just nibble...

VYGVF@10.2
WYNN@ 103
RPTX@30
SOFI@15

I expect at least 2 weeks of selling so just being patient and not aping in

[trobin31]

There are great deals in small caps if you can find great revenue growth and reasonable valuations....

Wynn just launced their online betting platform, which I was able to sign up for in Virginia....plus their hotels/casinos are very nice....

[JIBBBY]

Tanking because of the second potential wave of Covid lock downs. Panic sell off..

[d2bets]

Tanking because of the second potential wave of Covid lock downs. Panic sell off..

S&P 500 is about 4% off of ATH and is up over 30% in the last 8 months. That's panic?

[RoyBacon]

You like gold or the miners?

Prefer GLD but only because I'm too lazy to follow the miners. It's cleaner, less risk and easier.

[Sanity Check]

S&P 500 is about 4% off of ATH and is up over 30% in the last 8 months. That's panic?

Never a reason to panic, with this guy captain of the ship!

[trobin31]

GLBE put this on radar to get long, especially if reaches $30s ...do at least an hour or two of research....cld be life changing stonk

[guitarjosh]

There are great deals in small caps if you can find great revenue growth and reasonable valuations....

Wynn just launced their online betting platform, which I was able to sign up for in Virginia....plus their hotels/casinos are very nice....

Wynn's debt/equity ratio is over 50 and they have falling sales. Other casinos have less debt and are at least profitable, which Wynn isn't.

[homie1975]

Never a reason to panic, with this guy captain of the ship!

take the political and religious BS somewhere else.

bring something stock-wise to the table.

[Sanity Check]

take the political and religious BS somewhere else.

bring something stock-wise to the table.

Biden killed keystone pipeline.

Raising the cost of crude transport in the US.

Which in turn negatively affected shipping costs and many different sectors of the american economy.

"Political and religious BS."





"Bring something stock-wise to the table."





Learn the basics, kids.

[trobin31]

Wynn's debt/equity ratio is over 50 and they have falling sales. Other casinos have less debt and are at least profitable, which Wynn isn't.

I don’t disagree with valuations being better elsewhere, but for the highest grossing casino in the US, expending into more casinos out East and Macau, expanding into online betting, and could very well come third to FanDuel and DKNG in US market share, also the float for a top market casino is a little over 100M shares, I think the return will be much higher than chasing worse products at better value.

[trobin31]

I don’t disagree with valuations being better elsewhere, but for the highest grossing casino in the US, expending into more casinos out East and Macau, expanding into online betting, and could very well come third to FanDuel and DKNG in US market share, also the float for a top market casino is a little over 100M shares, I think the return will be much higher than chasing worse products at better value.

If we get a larger pull back I think $200 leaps under $1 will print money

[Sanity Check]

Gold, precious metals and bitcoin are probably best performers during a recession.

But what are solid assets to hold during inflation/hyperinflation.


That is the question.

[trobin31]

Biden killed keystone pipeline.

Raising the cost of crude transport in the US.

Which in turn negatively affected shipping costs and many different sectors of the american economy.

"Political and religious BS."





"Bring something stock-wise to the table."





Learn the basics, kids.

how to get clicks and advertisement dollars in America....mention the words ‘pipeline’ ‘racism’ ‘guns’ ‘abortion’ conspiracy’ & then......(Celebrity/politician) tweeted...one of prior mentioned words’

result? Population triggered=population forget about their shitty life.

[d2bets]

Gold, precious metals and bitcoin are probably best performers during a recession.

But what are solid assets to hold during inflation/hyperinflation.


That is the question.

Commodities is the simple answer, I would think.

[trobin31]

Gold, precious metals and bitcoin are probably best performers during a recession.

But what are solid assets to hold during inflation/hyperinflation.


That is the question.

Bitcoin..fastest horse in the race

otherwise, royalties companies, especially in energy, they accrue no costs so are immune to inflation

[trobin31]

If you are a hyperinflation vigilante and think this is where we are heading then royalty companies, in drugs-> RPRX, ABBV...land and oil->TPL...uranium->UROY...and then utilities-> VZ NEE are probably the best things you can bet on to sleep well at night.

Personally, I think deflationary pressure will be enough to offset hyperinflation, and, I don’t see inflation more than how we experienced in the 70s...the largest companies in the world are also some of highest margin businesses, and those same type of companies are destroying low margin businesses that drive inflation. I’d be much more worried about cyberattacks or aliens than I would be about inflation.

i think the inflation narrative has become very political, I’d be careful with buying into any one narrative as there is much to gain for both sides by creating inflation, depending on who is or isn’t in power. Just invest in great companies that are growing or paying good dividends with a 1-10% hedge for inflation would be my non financial advise advise.

[RoyBacon]

If you are a hyperinflation vigilante and think this is where we are heading then royalty companies, in drugs-> RPRX, ABBV...land and oil->TPL...uranium->UROY...and then utilities-> VZ NEE are probably the best things you can bet on to sleep well at night.

Personally, I think deflationary pressure will be enough to offset hyperinflation, and, I don’t see inflation more than how we experienced in the 70s...the largest companies in the world are also some of highest margin businesses, and those same type of companies are destroying low margin businesses that drive inflation. I’d be much more worried about cyberattacks or aliens than I would be about inflation.

i think the inflation narrative has become very political, I’d be careful with buying into any one narrative as there is much to gain for both sides by creating inflation, depending on who is or isn’t in power. Just invest in great companies that are growing or paying good dividends with a 1-10% hedge for inflation would be my non financial advise advise.

Excellent post but I’d take some issue on the part about worry about aliens over inflation.

Inflation could literally destroy the country and any semblance of the economy as we know it. Destroys debt financing and supply chains and sovereign currency as well.

Remember in hyper inflation companies have declining margins and that translates to lower valuations.

It’s something we need to keep a sharp eye on.

[JIBBBY]

Money worth a squat now with inflation. Try buying a used car today compared to a year ago. Stock market really tanked the minute Biden took office and started printing and sending out trillions in free money and flooding the market.

So you had $100,000 in stocks and it's still showing today at nearly the same price on your portfolio but it's really only worth $50,000 today because of inflation..

[Slurry Pumper]

Everybody settle down with the hyper inflation, or inflation, or the market is dead talk. Sure we had a down day where the daily trend met the day where the trend stop being our friend. This doesn't mean that the weekly chart isn't our friend. Tomorrow is another day and its turn around Tuesday. There is a very high probability we see a rally. Also look at the candle from today. Most systems will have a tail candle about the action today, which makes it look as if we didn't have a giant gap down of 500 points like we all know happened. When the yput these bullshit candles in almost always that is a tell that the market will be up in the area where the fake candle is displayed. So soon as in few days, don't be surprised if the SPY is back at the 431 area. When it gets there however, that is when I add to the IWM short and yes the QQQ short that has been kicking my ass for the last month.

[Goat Milk]

How about trying a day trade. Take AAPL for instance, today I'll catch this falling knife when the price hits $142.00 not about either, exactky that number, I buy the same number of shares if that knife continues to fall to $139.00 exactly. Either way average your cost from the 2 entries and sell about half when you get a 1 % return, and hold the rest for more. Sell if the return starts to go south, or hold on until the ride peters out. The entire time you will be in is probably going to be an hour.

Appreciate the advice, but 1% at the amounts I'm putting in will be worthless. Even if I put 10,000 bucks, which is a lot for me, what do I stand to gain on a 1% flip? 100 bucks? Definitely not worth the risk and the stress.

I like long term investments like roy said, but the reality is I have held every single one of my stocks for 5 years, and I am at even or slightly below. I've had no return on investment in 5 years. That's sad.

[Slurry Pumper]

Appreciate the advice, but 1% at the amounts I'm putting in will be worthless. Even if I put 10,000 bucks, which is a lot for me, what do I stand to gain on a 1% flip? 100 bucks? Definitely not worth the risk and the stress.

I like long term investments like roy said, but the reality is I have held every single one of my stocks for 5 years, and I am at even or slightly below. I've had no return on investment in 5 years. That's sad.

That may be the case but when you look at the options for today, that $100 could have easily been $1000. Also I didn't just do AAPL today, I reused that money at the end of the day for a SPY trade as well. I have to admit that I thought I was going to get more out of the AAPL trade today but I treat it like a bidness so I always take half at 1% and sell before it goes back negative. Point is to determine when that knife will stop falling which is the biggest thing to get across.

[Goat Milk]

That may be the case but when you look at the options for today, that $100 could have easily been $1000. Also I didn't just do AAPL today, I reused that money at the end of the day for a SPY trade as well. I have to admit that I thought I was going to get more out of the AAPL trade today but I treat it like a bidness so I always take half at 1% and sell before it goes back negative. Point is to determine when that knife will stop falling which is the biggest thing to get across.

Do you have any stocks you think can 50% or more over the next year? I'd like to just put 20k in one thing and just sit on it, I'm sick of "diversifying" as it has gotten me no where to this point.

[Slurry Pumper]

My long term picks haven't faired as well as my daily scalps. The ones I thought were going to be sure winners last year that are about 7 to 8 months into it have a ways to go to break even. They are the gold miners AU and the etf of gold miners GDX.

I also thought the AQB (franken fish) would have been a little better than the price that I bought it at.

Now I like all things oil, and a company that was on the brink just 4 months ago just pulled back in the recent weeks. RIG. They were a penny stock about 6 months ago and just topped out at 5 buck mark in the beginning of the month. Now it is at 3.35. They need oil to be expensive because they are the kings of deep water very technical drilling for oil. At less than 4 bucks I like them but the chart is telling me to wait until Christmas for my next chance to get on board with these guys.
I also like KWEB when it comes back to 45 bucks. it is working its way down there but it still has a few bucks to go.

[guitarjosh]

Money worth a squat now with inflation. Try buying a used car today compared to a year ago. Stock market really tanked the minute Biden took office and started printing and sending out trillions in free money and flooding the market.

So you had $100,000 in stocks and it's still showing today at nearly the same price on your portfolio but it's really only worth $50,000 today because of inflation..

I don't know if you're being facetious, but the S&P 500 is up over 12% since Inauguration Day.

[Sanity Check]

Commodities is the simple answer, I would think.

Good answer.

But wouldn't inflation wreak havoc on shipping and exchange rates.

Everyone would see their purchasing power diminish, which would trend with losses.

Bitcoin..fastest horse in the race

otherwise, royalties companies, especially in energy, they accrue no costs so are immune to inflation

I like the idea. Wow, two good posts in a row.

If inflation hits both asset and liability sides of your balance sheet.

They would tend to cancel each other out, or result in a loss?

[Sanity Check]

If you are a hyperinflation vigilante and think this is where we are heading then royalty companies, in drugs-> RPRX, ABBV...land and oil->TPL...uranium->UROY...and then utilities-> VZ NEE are probably the best things you can bet on to sleep well at night.

Personally, I think deflationary pressure will be enough to offset hyperinflation, and, I don’t see inflation more than how we experienced in the 70s...the largest companies in the world are also some of highest margin businesses, and those same type of companies are destroying low margin businesses that drive inflation. I’d be much more worried about cyberattacks or aliens than I would be about inflation.

i think the inflation narrative has become very political, I’d be careful with buying into any one narrative as there is much to gain for both sides by creating inflation, depending on who is or isn’t in power. Just invest in great companies that are growing or paying good dividends with a 1-10% hedge for inflation would be my non financial advise advise.

Some are saying 1970s era inflation will be the worst of it.

But we're at 1940s, world war II era, levels of debt.

I don't know if I can find the will to get back into actively trading. But I'll try. Will post here, if I find anything good.

[d2bets]

Money worth a squat now with inflation. Try buying a used car today compared to a year ago. Stock market really tanked the minute Biden took office and started printing and sending out trillions in free money and flooding the market.
So you had $100,000 in stocks and it's still showing today at nearly the same price on your portfolio but it's really only worth $50,000 today because of inflation..

What planet do you live on?