Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[vivablu]

Fed speaks like 14 times this week and the market is primed to roll over on the slightest spook. I have been all in on the reopening trade but the only charts that look good for swing trade are mega to mid cap tech. I plan to buy weakness in Oil for longs, and try to swing AAPL ROKU & SPOT. I’ll have hedges in place on SPY & QQQ puts. The dollar is what is going to determine everything so I am watching it like a hawk, pun intended. This has all the makings of a week where everything is burning while mega caps are bought to put the lip stick on the pig.

Read the market out look by betting resource. i posted it above. they have been spot on since early last year. there is going to be no major crash but there will be a correction that can last 2 days to 1 or 2 weeks. Then its all bull market. Media and social media are trying to manipulate retail into thinking there is going to be a big crash to shake their hands off but after small correction it is going to be continuation of bull market. if you are buying puts dont stick to july expiry. when the correction happens and dips, sell the puts for profit and buy august calls.

The correction is nothing but a shake up to rollover and adjust positions around june 30th quarterly expiry

[trobin31]

Read the market out look by betting resource. i posted it above. they have been spot on since early last year. there is going to be no major crash but there will be a correction that can last 2 days to 1 or 2 weeks. Then its all bull market. Media and social media are trying to manipulate retail into thinking there is going to be a big crash to shake their hands off but after small correction it is going to be continuation of bull market. if you are buying puts dont stick to july expiry. when the correction happens and dips, sell the puts for profit and buy august calls.

The correction is nothing but a shake up to rollover and adjust positions around june 30th quarterly expiry

I got hedges expiry mid July, market looks bullish, really have to eye fuk the dollar and US10Y daily, eventually one if not a couple of the banks are going to nuke the TLT. The last rate spike we saw was just Morgan Stanley shorting the snot out of it. If they gang up together next time it it cld fly past 2% and market will rollover hard

[Swaggy P]

infrastructure bill VERY close.

got XLF and CX calls.

Check out XEA as well. Good price right now.

[Swaggy P]

Besides infrastructure stock and other good ones you guys like?

[RoyBacon]

I got hedges expiry mid July, market looks bullish, really have to eye fuk the dollar and US10Y daily, eventually one if not a couple of the banks are going to nuke the TLT. The last rate spike we saw was just Morgan Stanley shorting the snot out of it. If they gang up together next time it it cld fly past 2% and market will rollover hard

Mostly agree. This inflation is real. It will eventually end the bull market.

I don’t agree it’s imminent.

I’m trying to find a few bonds and there is just nothing out there paying over 2%. There is no where for money to go currently.

I would wait until the 10 breaks say 2.2% before I’d short or buy puts.

[guitarjosh]

Mostly agree. This inflation is real. It will eventually end the bull market.

I don’t agree it’s imminent.

I’m trying to find a few bonds and there is just nothing out there paying over 2%. There is no where for money to go currently.

I would wait until the 10 breaks say 2.2% before I’d short or buy puts.

junk bonds are getting around 4.5% - 5% and have been performing well as of late.

[trobin31]

Mostly agree. This inflation is real. It will eventually end the bull market.

I don’t agree it’s imminent.

I’m trying to find a few bonds and there is just nothing out there paying over 2%. There is no where for money to go currently.

I would wait until the 10 breaks say 2.2% before I’d short or buy puts.

I don't think its imminent...they will want to load up on buybacks first.

[RoyBacon]

junk bonds are getting around 4.5% - 5% and have been performing well as of late.

You can buy a 2027 Goodyear, BB, yields 4.6%. But that’s a lot of risk for 4.6%.

[Slurry Pumper]

I'm still playing the ref role until the end of the month here. Today Nasdaq runs, Dow transports and XLF have a difficult time responding. Wednesday is the end of the quarter and after that I think things may change a little bit.

[trobin31]

Took some more time to go over data for COVID, pretty concerning...Pfizer was used in UK and Israel, UK have 50% fully vaccinated and first dose 67%, Israel 57% and 61%...Israel saw a 300%+ increase in cases this past week. But, as I think we all saw,,,next to no precautions were being taken as they rampaged in the streets last month. UK seeing 70% increase in cases last week.

Overall, a few takeaways...Americans are about as ignorant and least precautious as any country out there...plus overwhelming number of obese population led to our leading in case and death counts. Moderna could really come out of this looking very strong if cases do not rise as much in the US since half of ppl in US got Moderna, 1/2 Pfizer another fraction JNJ.

Lastly, while cases maybe increasing the morbidity ie number of deaths and hospitalizations are really what may drive further lockdowns....so if cases are spreading like a common cold, but not causing as much severe illness...then lockdowns become a higher risk to health and economy than Covid.

tldr; Top bullish upside short term trades I see right now: TSLA JD NFLX BIDU PATH TDOC

also, probably the biggest picture more Covid wld lead to more money printing and asset inflation, Bitcoin, crypto, gold, high growth go boom... I hope it’s not the case though and we can get on the other side of this sooner. Not sure I can deal with another round of endless Covid patience and having kids out of school.

[whydubya]

Took some more time to go over data for COVID, pretty concerning...Pfizer was used in UK and Israel, UK have 50% fully vaccinated and first dose 67%, Israel 57% and 61%...Israel saw a 300%+ increase in cases this past week. But, as I think we all saw,,,next to no precautions were being taken as they rampaged in the streets last month. UK seeing 70% increase in cases last week.

Overall, a few takeaways...Americans are about as ignorant and least precautious as any country out there...plus overwhelming number of obese population led to our leading in case and death counts. Moderna could really come out of this looking very strong if cases do not rise as much in the US since half of ppl in US got Moderna, 1/2 Pfizer another fraction JNJ.

Lastly, while cases maybe increasing the morbidity ie number of deaths and hospitalizations are really what may drive further lockdowns....so if cases are spreading like a common cold, but not causing as much severe illness...then lockdowns become a higher risk to health and economy than Covid.

tldr; Top bullish upside short term trades I see right now: TSLA JD NFLX BIDU PATH TDOC

also, probably the biggest picture more Covid wld lead to more money printing and asset inflation, Bitcoin, crypto, gold, high growth go boom... I hope it’s not the case though and we can get on the other side of this sooner. Not sure I can deal with another round of endless Covid patience and having kids out of school.

Why do you say money printing/inflation will cause high growth stocks to go boom. That will inevitably drive up the 10y yield putting a damper on growth stocks/borrowing rates.

[KVB]

[Slurry Pumper]

Classic "W" formation with the last leg of the W at the same level as the middle. Time to invest and go long.

[RoyBacon]

If you think about it high tech has little exposure to rising rates compared to transports, energy, financial, consumer, etc.

Most techs have little or no debt.

The reason they sell off the most is because they carry perfect scenario, sky high valuations.

No one knows for sure when we will see a 3% 10yr. In this game of musical chairs the music is showing no signs of stopping anytime soon.

I could see the 10 at 2.1% this time next year.

[trobin31]

Why do you say money printing/inflation will cause high growth stocks to go boom. That will inevitably drive up the 10y yield putting a damper on growth stocks/borrowing rates.

Investors favor high growth when economy slows down, and turn to value when economy booms...if you print, while a possible slowing of economy of Covid is a problem, then growth stocks become favorable...I think the market might be pricing this in? Honestly feels like July 2020 all over again, everyone just peaking in their rear view mirror while being passed on the other side

[KVB]

Classic "W" formation with the last leg of the W at the same level as the middle. Time to invest and go long.

Tha "W" was one sick ride, that's for sure.

Thanks for chiming in.

[Slurry Pumper]

Tha "W" was one sick ride, that's for sure.

Thanks for chiming in.

I forgot to mention that it is just below the 100 period moving average this baby is ready to break out and run, or at least a high probability of it anyway.

[trobin31]

GOP are pushing inflation narrative like crazy.... Trump lost weight and has been training like Rocky Balboa on a Siberian mountain... inflation, immigration, taxes, dementia... rinse and repeat... it’s all you will hear... Oil prices going to the moon is the best card GOP have going into mid terms and presidential election...Biden is trying to front run the move by supplying more oil in infrastructure deal...this will be interesting but you cld bank on big oil driving up prices just based on political moves

[KVB]

I forgot to mention that it is just below the 100 period moving average this baby is ready to break out and run, or at least a high probability of it anyway.

Make that 200 after yesterday's games and also bringing it back to EVEN on the year...







This does not include today's plays, of which so far there was 1 and it lost.

[trobin31]

July insight
Okay, so big day tomorrow...job numbers...I am betting it’s good...but cld be better kind of narrative...my hamster cld be President right now and jobs would increase.

Impact to markets...I think the charts are telling the story. Tech, XLK/QQQ looks toppy and I think will be very choppy this month. Improving jobs helps support capital moving from growth to value. Which charts look primed to outperform this month?

1) XLI/XLB: improving jobs, during summer when construction and use of materials is highest is really a no brainer given seasonality. Also, chart hit nice bottom signals and showed signs of reversal.

2) XLF: more jobs, more spending, higher dollar all means more spending and credit. Banks had the handcuffs taken off and already buying shares and increasing Divy. Financial charts and Industrial/materials almost identical.

3) XLE: energy is my Boo, so you already knew I stay bullish...I said $80 WTI by august in January and we have almost run up too quickly but i ain’t mad.

4) Travel: I am still eye balling Covid cases and for now the IHME projections haven’t changed. All the govt officials making the rounds are giving me vibes we will push through without restrictions as long as spikes are scattered

Crypto: IF, big IF we get to all new highs I don’t see it happening until end of summer going into Sept/Oct. I am dollar cost averaging into NANO ALGO GRT SHIB(lol) right now and rather wait for clear signs of bottom in BTC/ETH

[Slurry Pumper]

Late pre-holiday falling knife catch event for me today with IWM long at the 227.70 level if it gets there in the next couple of hours.

[Runeblade]

This guy...

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[KVB]

[trobin31]

Nice little reverse Adam & Eve, sweaty downtest before sending it, time to go all in baby

[KVB]

Classic "W" formation with the last leg of the W at the same level as the middle. Time to invest and go long.

I forgot to mention that it is just below the 100 period moving average this baby is ready to break out and run, or at least a high probability of it anyway.

Nice little reverse Adam & Eve, sweaty downtest before sending it, time to go all in baby

Last time we were all bullish in this chart we were looking at a little flag pattern just before an 11 straight losing streak.

We're finding support at that 100 SMA too. Sure looks like we're coming back.

For the record and for what it's worth, I did predict that W pattern very early on saying there would be volatility and market shakeout on both sides of the market. At this point I see the jump you guys see.

Not sure whether to bring out the circling sharks or pom poms. That's not a knock on you guys, I'm in your camp when reading this chart, it's just that it can be a shady market when things line up too good.

And we've been running pretty good here.

Today's plays...

954	4-Jul	PIT +170
968		CLE +135
970		DET +162

[Slurry Pumper]

Fed meeting coming out today. So we all find out that the Fed is now starting to think about raising rates in a few years. Problem is the fed can't raise rates because that will kill the market. Its kind of like using a pistol to cure your headache. Sure it will do the job but it also kills you, most of the time anyway. So the fed will try to fake their way into getting people to believe they have a handle on things when they are Fvcked and they know it. its just a matter of waiting for it but the correction will come.

[RoyBacon]

Fed meeting coming out today. So we all find out that the Fed is now starting to think about raising rates in a few years. Problem is the fed can't raise rates because that will kill the market. Its kind of like using a pistol to cure your headache. Sure it will do the job but it also kills you, most of the time anyway. So the fed will try to fake their way into getting people to believe they have a handle on things when they are Fvcked and they know it. its just a matter of waiting for it but the correction will come.

It will be the same ole same ole.

The fed will wait until the market forces rates higher.

I just bought some Boeing bonds 2030 maturity yielding 2.4%. As long as the market is holding down these rates the Fed is free to sit on their hands.

When investors force up the yields on mid quality bonds like that 2030 Boeing, then they will move. Basically they will tail the market, not lead.

[KVB]

Classic "W" formation with the last leg of the W at the same level as the middle. Time to invest and go long.

I forgot to mention that it is just below the 100 period moving average this baby is ready to break out and run, or at least a high probability of it anyway.

Nice little reverse Adam & Eve, sweaty downtest before sending it, time to go all in baby

[Slurry Pumper]

Well that didn't take long to run up to resistance did it. As the chart reached right where it is at now, I would have taken profits along and kept perhaps a 50% position from here on, if it breaks through the 15 line, I put the 50% back on, if not I wait for a pullback and then add a little more maybe 25% for another run at the resistance. If it breaks the other high mark on the left, I still add more there as well.

[Enkhbat]

The meme stocks keep going down, while SPY continues to hit all time highs. What do you guys think of that? I guess SPY is like the flight to safe haven?

[RoyBacon]

The meme stocks keep going down, while SPY continues to hit all time highs. What do you guys think of that? I guess SPY is like the flight to safe haven?

I've been shorting calls on AMC and GME since late Jan.

I'm very surprised they are $45 and $190 respectively here in July. The trading craziness is calming down with those two and they are drifting markedly lower. It looks like the end is upon us for those two.

I don't think there is any correlation good or bad with the market in general(SPY).

SPY is the benefactor of no where to go with fresh investment dollars. 10 yr bond at 1.5%? SPY pays 1.4%, REIT's and energy MLP's are a NO, risky junk bonds paying 3% No?

[Slurry Pumper]

Yeah if you look at the volume in the SPY for the last few months while this index has crept higher, there is really no volume. That tells me that the big money is not the ones pushing here. They aren't participating and the big wait is on. I see a pullback in the future here that could morph into a little bit of a panic if things break wrong. Probably not but things starts on a smaller time frame chart and morph to larger ones and other indexes. The Dow Transports and IWM have been lagging for weeks now. Only the QQQs are running but I think that comes to an end. Look for 15% down when it all shakes out.

I stay away from the meme stocks. I just know I wont be able to catch that wave either up or down so I don't even look at them.

[Runeblade]

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[RoyBacon]

I’m starting to spot a little today. 🙁

[KVB]