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I'm thinking of a range from 380 to 350 on the SPY. I know that is a pretty big range, but the top side has pretty good support at 380 and the 350 represents the 20 month moving average. So the sweet spot is right at about 370. Some people put a fibonacci deal on it from the lows in March 2020 and the recent high to come up with a 385 at the 23.6 level and 353 at the 38.2 level. BTW to get to the golden ratio 61.8, that is the big fat number of 300.Comment -
Guys I think the defensive large caps with solid dividends is where to look. Guys like PG, VZ, UPS, CVX are not sexy but will hold their own and give a decent return.Comment -
Roy this "never sell" strategy is not working well for me. Stocks are flying up (when I say fly I'm talking 40% and higher, not single digits) and I am sitting on them, only to see them lose all of their gains over the next weeks.
I don't have confidence in this rule any longer.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Dude I don’t blame you.
But let’s just chat for a second about investing.
I challenge you to think of your next investment in a 10 year window and not the bumps short term.
Let’s pick Total symbol TTE. It trades near book value and pays a 9% dividend with strong earnings. In 10 years this investment will likely earn around 120% or 12% a year.
You will find it easier and less stressful if you lengthen your window and make 10 yr investments. God doesn’t even know what the mrkt will do tomorrow.Comment -
Spy is up 15% in 1H, this is just profit digestion, we will be higher 2H. Either sit it out or get into bonds, dollar or utilities. Qqq and spy have looked toppy for a few weeks now.
as for variants, I can only tell you the data...and data says in countries with reasonable vaccination rates not enough morbidity to close down. So I think reopening, energy and FAANG will continue to outperform
CNBC and youtube idiots can spin this however they want but there is far too much liquidity out there right now for markets not to keep going higher.Comment -
So this week turned out to be a head fake break down. The transports ended just under the 20 day moving average. The IWM went to my break down number of 213ish on Thusday only to rip a new one and recapture the 100 DMA. The XLF even came back to make the chart look like it is starting to make a bullish flag on the weekly chart. The SPY had a rip your face off rally from the lows on Thursday to all time highs by the end of the day today. All in all good volatility is a good thing for a day trader and we finally had some. This year has been like watching paint dry for the last 3 months.Comment -
Sorry about delay...I think the market will be very choppy short term, meaning, if you try to go long chasing FOMO or steam, you will get chopped up...if you have a strong thesis and continue to allocate capital on weakness...in my case I think Reopening, Energy, FAANG+ ie TSLA SHOP ADBE BABA SE AMD ISRG PLTR PYPL (all high, consistent revenue growth) earners will go higher, so just add on the dips...as for crypto...many chain analysis metrics say the run this cycle isn’t over, but the technical analysis of charts looks gg...I prefer to buy extreme pain in crypto, long run there is nothing anyone can say blockchain market won’t be 100’s of Trillions and you want the fastest horses in the race.Comment -
Lol the market is going to be bull. It will just be a correction before the earning season. I highly recommend reading Betting Resource's quarterly market outlook. He has been spot on on with every correction and bull phase since late 2019 and the money with option trading has been insanely good. He does expect a big bear market but not yet. Here is his outlook going into third quarter that was sent on June 25th. Don't fall for the narrative that it is going to be a massive bear market.
I am bullish once again. The final phase of the 40 year bull market and the melt up phase will continue for the time being as we approach the next catalyst. The big recession is unlikely to begin this year. We should closely watch the actions of the feds and policies to monitor the situation for possible trigger in December or early 2022. Feds already moved down the rate hike target from 2024 for to 2023. They will probably move it down again in a few months. Eventually the catalyst that will trigger the recession can happen sometime in 2022 or 2023--before or after the mid term elections in USA. It can also be prolonged. Can't say exactly when until few months leading up to it. My quarterly updates will continue to monitor the situation. For the moment rapid economic expansion will continue. As we have seen in the history, rapid expansion will eventually end in recession but I am very bullish for the third and 4th quarter of 2021. There is however a looming correction by mid July that could last a few days to a week. June 30th quarterly options expiry is a big one and expect some erratic moves in many equity--It could be turbulent until mid July. For the next two quarters growth, tech, gold, silver, semiconductors should come out of consolidation and rally hard to new highs. For the main indices, Nasdaq will resume its rally from consolidation for multiple new highs. Each mini correction will be followed up with new high. August through November is going to present insanely good opportunities to make money with options. I will cover some very good plays for you guys, stay tuned!
In previous outlooks I mentioned that cybersecurity/hacking to play a big role during the next catalyst like the virus played in the previous flash crash in march 2020. When the real crash begins, the recession period should last 1 to few years. In the past, big wars were used to come out of recession. But now the elites' portfolios are far more diverse rather than depending only on certain sectors. Therefore, big scale real wars are not good news for them in a consumer driven global economy; invisible wars like pandemic, cyber pandemic etc are far better. One important thing to keep an eye on is aliens/ufo and how it will play out since it is perfect for invisible war. Don't worry, we do not have any real threats from aliens anytime soon. If you hear about any threats, it will be made up. Based on how things are brewing in the policies and in the world economic forum, there is a very good possibility that the population could be made to believe that there are potential alien attacks/threats--it will all be manufactured by humans if it happens. This will be much easier to pull off than the pandemic. Population will not have much resource in this regard and they will have to rely on so called experts.
Many wondered why the declassification of ufo files were included in the covid relief bills last year and questioned what it has to do with the pandemic—well, it has everything to do with the economy. When the declassification of the files happen, they will leave things vague and will not deny or confirm alien/ufo existence or visitation--naturally the talking heads will control the narrative both ways and eventually one side will get stronger as people are conditioned. As an investor, all you need to remember is that all blurry videos or so called potential evidence in the files are all military or scientific experiments/activities but what matters for your portfolio is public perception. If the majority of the public are convinced that there is potential alien threat, as investors we could make a lot of money during the recession buy picking up the right stocks and options. If they do not straight up deny aliens/ufo's in the declassification process, they are opening a new can of worms with some future incidents such as attacks on communication or other satellites, space stations etc that can be blamed on unknown forces. Space is getting crowded with new satellites and there are many new older satellites that are disposable to replace with new ones. Intentional destruction of those satellites can be narrated to the population as something else. Creating panic among the gullible social media/msm starving population is very easy by cutting off communication channels briefly to blame the aliens. This may seem far stretched but all the writings are on the wall for potential (manufactured) alien threats. Since the pandemic started, numerous SPACE related ETFs and companies have been started and a lot of big money is flowing into them just like how new PHARMA/Vaccine companies/etfs were started in 2018 and 2019 leading up to the pandemic. This doesn't mean you should put your money into all these new things that are popping up. If the catalyst begins and if the narrative takes shape, we will pick some names to invest just like we did with novavax and moderna for the vaccines in march 2020. For now, we will simply monitor the situation. When/if the time comes, we will strike. This can have a combined effect with the cyber security issues and the commodity boom cycle that I covered in the previous outlooks.
As for near term, there is going to be great opportunity with options in the next quarters. First half of this year didn't present many opportunities due to many sectors consolidating as value stocks was in the driving seat. Those consolidating sectors will now take the driver seat for the second half of the year.
Kind Regards,
Betting Resource
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Vivablu, my views are not inconsistent with the Betting Resource. A 15% correction is normal in the markets every once in a while. I am not calling for the full on dive down to the 50-75% every bodies fvcked scenario for a while yet even though I believe it is on the way. I'm a big believer in things all happen for a reason and time is much more important than the price levels. In this case, my theory is the all the markets will have a pullback as the dollar has a surprising rise for the next month or 2. You'll know when the big dip is in the cards when the utilities ETF goes parabolic, along with a flight to safety plays like gold and silver. It will seem like a sudden thing as a new catalyst will occur like; people find out that Biden is indeed not fully alive and Kamala is on the way, or China actually does take back Taiwan, or something even small like another hack of some important infrastructure like a couple of nuclear plants along the east coast that triggers a massive shutdown and people freak the hell out, then sure as shyt all of those FANG stocks will tank as the big money rotates into safety. For now however, it is game on for the big names on the tech sector, and no time to be bearish but a good time to pick wisely. Not so much for the small to midcaps as the banks are having a rough time making money from the low ass interest rates. This is why the banks are moving money to the repo market in the fed. It gets rid of money. So eventually the stagflation will take hold and everyone will look around and say son of a biatch all this stuff cost more but not because of higher productivity. While I do have a more than usual portion in the gold and silver markets, I generally do day trades in and out before the end of the day. This style seems to suit me. I identify the mood of the day and find a daily pivot on most days and trade that. This is why I love volatility.Last edited by Slurry Pumper; 07-10-21, 07:22 PM.Comment -
DXY looks topped, US10Y looks bottomed, just as banks are about to report earnings this week....gold & XLB looking bullish, QQQ & XLK look toppy, am thinking inflation narrative is about to make a come back as yields likely reverse and go higher here...FAS options I took beginning July up 80% already...I suspect XLB is about to follow suit....remember as rates go higher the old economy trades will go higher too...
Trade ideas:
NYCB...pretty good value here and lots of insider buying last month at these levels
MT, X or CLF these are some of my preferred commodity plays...rising rates means more inflation jabber...also useful Politicians will be back this week and infrastructure talks should heat up, so get ready to see lots of the turtle soon.
PZZA I’ve always wanted to own Papa John’s for some reason and the stock looks really bullish here to continue higher...I’d say wait for intraday scalping if the momentum continues or keep adding if it consolidates up here before breaking higher.
AAPL AMZN NFLX TSLA all look like they want higher but we all know how tech reacts to a jolt higher in rates, so if I am right about rates going higher here I wouldn’t want to be trying to swing low cap tech, prefer mega cap FAANG as these are proving to be a flight to safety even in high rate environment
XLE UCO OIH riddle me this...if delta variant is such a huge concern why did energy flatten out and oil go higher by end of week? By the dip!!any dip...GOP will make sure we have higher oil prices to pin on Dems by mid terms. You can count on it.Last edited by trobin31; 07-10-21, 10:12 PM.Comment -
I did jump in on X about 3 weeks ago, I also like the XLE, UCO and OIH plays. All of these have legs and a continued run up is likely.
Not sure about the China Virus Delta variant being a thing. The nation has largely shaken off the grips of the totalitarian state government regimes that have cried wolf about the China virus for the last year and a half. The truth remains that in the nation, less than 1/3 of 1% have died. By itself this is a laughable number when it comes to pandemics and rest assured the other pandemics throughout history are poking fun at this one. I also think that when this all shakes out this year, we will find a large drop in other medical things that end in death. So dying from the flu is almost a thing of the past. How many heart disease and cancer deaths have been avoided. So in a strange twist that will not go reported so you'll have to look for it, the Bat Kung Pow virus will make it look like the other things that kill you had a off year and the potentiality of dying from them has lessened. Its all in how you count the overall deaths and statistics can and are manipulated to look as desired.Comment -
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Ran up to resistance, ate a little time off the clock gaining energy, then resumed past the 15 line which is where I add back the portion I took off again. Now it is at another high which is resistance, so before I add more, I wait for the chart to come back down and retest a former break out area which is the 15 line. Place the stop loss on daily closes below the breakout area which looks like around 13.50 which in a day will also be the 20 period moving average. If that support holds, we add some more right when the new highs are breached, and move the stop up to that level on daily closes.Comment -
Well here we are again, I see divergences in the indexes like $DJT, IWM, XLF all trending down while the QQQ, SMH is gaining. Dangerous times until they all get worked out. Bank earnings aren't helping and more inflation numbers coming in a little later today, I suspect a little more inflation than they thought here. The headwinds for being long are starting to blow pretty hard here for the short term and the only thing saving it at this point is the low treasury rate so its the big tech play but i'm staying close to the exit door.Comment -
Seeing lots of distribution tops...I’d be completely off leverage right now and wait for the chance of a lifetime...Comment -
Been off leverage all year.
Still buying solid dividend stocks like nly, cvx, and utility funds and a couple of floating rate funds.Comment -
it will be nothing like 2000 dot.com burst or 2020 covid annihilation. nothing close to it. those were the two generational opportunities the last 20Y. i am not counting the 08 correction and eventual crash into march 09 because the market did not fall off a cliff like it did in 2000 and 2020.
right now we have record low credit card debt per capita and record high savings per capita means anything ~5% on a broad index correction snaps back in no time.
FANG stocks down ~10% will snap back right away. growth plays get to ~13% down they will do the same.
there is still WAY TOO much money out there on the sidelines always waiting these days so a full on crash simply is not happening. full 10% correction doubtful as well.Comment -
Impossible to say, I think it will be choppy so just having enough cash to buy the dip is a good approach right now, I guess what I am saying is going full speed into a position right now is probably not wise...I think overall the taper and gains from 1H were just getting priced in along with taper...now you have the uncertainty of how government will react to the virus spreading but not causing enough of a burden to warrant shutdowns...by this I mean the number of hospitalizations and ICU use will not be as high...I project a sound strategy will be using masks to travel and in public areas...leaving the local policy makers to decide based on vaccination rates and hospital resources...overall I think the 1H gains will get digested into August and we will be much much higher by eoy. So just just pick your favorite 2-3 stocks that aren’t overvalued, have exponential revenue growth, and wait for a beat down between now and October. Then I would go margined long. I agree, a crash is almost unfathomable if interest rates are this low, the indexes aren’t pegged to gold like 1929, tech companies now are generating the highest cash flows around, so comparing this to tech bubble is another mistake. The only real bubble is in speculative crypto and a smattering of Spacs.
bottom line, I see lots of opportunities on the horizon and ready to buy pain, if ViX spikes hard, fear greed index drops, I want to have cash to buy....so I guess I am saying look at your portfolio, if you aren’t ready for a drawdown then get ready.
personally I am extremely bullish on the continuing emergence of deep learning and artificial intelligence, and the top ones I am really trying to be overweight for the next 3-5 years are SDGR PLTR TSLA....I think e commerce in emerging markets are still providing great opportunity, especially SE and CPNG...
We are in the middle of phase 2 of bull cycle, and so all the easy money has been made, now have to focus on #1 Growing revenue #2 Valuation....in phase 3 i prefer to focus solely on valuation/divedend, not sure we will get there until the tapering actually sets in a few years.Comment -
I am still very bullish on energy as a multi-year play and will keep adding Oil & Uranium....both coming out of a decade long bear market and most asymmetric supply and demand in recent history...no brainer...fool if you sell...multibagger trade over next few years
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So it looks like the interest yield and dollar are going to move up and with this that will spark the sell off in the markets. This will complete the divergences I've been seeing in the indexes for the last few weeks, starting with the $djt, then IWM. I increased my IWM short play a little while ago an now when we get a little bounce sometime this morning, I'll hammer it again, I expect another support level right at the 200 DMA which is at 206.50. Still looking for 15% pullback on the SPY, and probably 7-10% on the Nasdaq in the short term.Comment -
All my stocks are down, I don't understand what you guys are talking about with "correction." Literally every stock I own is red for the past 6 months. I haven't seen green in forever. I think something is about to happen with penny stocks too. SEC came out with something, I have to look into it. I've been lazy.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
How about trying a day trade. Take AAPL for instance, today I'll catch this falling knife when the price hits $142.00 not about either, exactky that number, I buy the same number of shares if that knife continues to fall to $139.00 exactly. Either way average your cost from the 2 entries and sell about half when you get a 1 % return, and hold the rest for more. Sell if the return starts to go south, or hold on until the ride peters out. The entire time you will be in is probably going to be an hour.Comment -
Everything is getting blasted today.
A sea of red lights on my screen.
I’ll nibble on some income ETF’s.Comment -
Down ~800 what a joke!Comment -
Man the last two weeks have been brutal. Buying more all the way down and it just keeps dropping. Happy to average down but seeing the paper losses is rough. Hopefully some sort of turn around in sight....Comment -
There's still so many talking heads on TV really signaling bullish trends yet.
I don't get it. The VIX is highest in 2 years, 3 major Counties re masked, Europe is a disaster and the Asia markets are getting blasted.
I wonder what happens if we see another 5% slip this week, the Fed has no play w rates and debt is already at a record.
The bottom 10% literally have 0 money right now, they're not working and they're not spending. It's crazy, those customers I deal with are just not doing anything because of the rent/ eviction moratorium lol....which is alot of the discretionary spending companies need for earnings.Comment
