Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

RoyBacon · 07-27-21, 07:29 AM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

Take this for what it’s worth but I’ve had several friends get Covid after being Phizer vaccinated.

Just had a friend test positive for Covid yesterday. He had the Phizer shot as well. He had flu like symptoms and was rundown. Most likely got it from his neighbor who also tested positive. I was around him on Friday and Saturday and no symptoms. I have Moderna. I think we’re going to soon find out that the breakthroughs are from other vaccines but Moderna. Time to load up on their stock and fade Phizer.

Maybe.

Very possible if not most likely there will be yearly boosters for all these flu shots....errr, vaccines.. PFE at $41 and change and nearly 4% dividend is a bit of a no brainer.

Mac4Lyfe · 07-27-21, 07:50 AM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Maybe.

Very possible if not most likely there will be yearly boosters for all these flu shots....errr, vaccines.. PFE at $41 and change and nearly 4% dividend is a bit of a no brainer.

I bought PFE at $21.9 a while back, so a pretty nice return thus far. I'm debating holding through earnings tomorrow. Probably will have good earnings but I'm definitely fading after.

I just bought a shitload of MRNA early hours. It's already had a huge run up but we're about to see another covid wave and I think we're going to see that MRNA holds up over the rest.

Madison · 07-27-21, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Maybe.

Very possible if not most likely there will be yearly boosters for all these flu shots....errr, vaccines.. PFE at $41 and change and nearly 4% dividend is a bit of a no brainer.

FWIW, Don't ignore profit centers. All the politics/propaganda should be viewed with an objective view as to who is to profit??

homie1975 · 07-27-21, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

Take this for what it’s worth but I’ve had several friends get Covid after being Phizer vaccinated.

Just had a friend test positive for Covid yesterday. He had the Phizer shot as well. He had flu like symptoms and was rundown. Most likely got it from his neighbor who also tested positive. I was around him on Friday and Saturday and no symptoms. I have Moderna. I think we’re going to soon find out that the breakthroughs are from other vaccines but Moderna. Time to load up on their stock and fade Phizer.

could be on to something.

moderna 100 mcg of vaxx, but 94.5% efficacy against symptomatic covid

pfizer only 30 mcg of vaxx, but 95% efficacy against symptomatic covid

if there was a huge difference in breakthrough, we probably would have seen it on the news by now ??

Mac4Lyfe · 07-27-21, 06:31 PM

Well, I lost about $6k buying Moderna this morning.

I'll probably buy some call options if it goes down anymore. I think we're going to see MRNA be the standard.

trobin31 · 07-27-21, 06:53 PM

Choppy means you will get chopped up trying to understand and play these markets without a quant genius in your corner, if you want to survive go to cash and be patient or just buy the dips on high conviction long term winners.

Slurry Pumper · 07-28-21, 06:55 AM

So true to my plan, I picked up 150 contracts of Calls (Strike 36.50) at the low low price of .37 yesterday (closed .49) with expiration on Aug 6. We had a pretty good dip in the market to start the day but all of the positive things are still in place. If you noticed XLF rebounded nicely and ended up pretty flat on the day. Nasdaq fell right down to the 20 DMA which also happens to be a former breakout area, then it bounced and looks like it is ready to push ahead.

Today it will be like watching paint dry until Powell comes out to sing at 2PM. You can see the writing on the wall here with the Jackson Hole thing coming up in a couple of weeks, and the recovery still not fully engaged, he will say that inflation is transitory and confined to certain sectors, like all the stuff I and you buy, but not in other fantasy sectors. Then right at 2 for some reason the market will wake up and swing wildly. If it pops up, I'll probably sell 50 contracts and wait for the swing to come back down and rebuy them on the bottom of the wave. If it swings down, I'll come over the top and buy another 5Gs worth when I think the bottom is intraday. What is that level on the SPY? Well 436 was yesterdays low and a nice round number, below that we have the gap down at 435.50, then the line in the sand intraday for me is 433.50.

Either way its going to be a fun 3 days going into the weekend

RoyBacon · 07-28-21, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

So true to my plan, I picked up 150 contracts of Calls (Strike 36.50) at the low low price of .37 yesterday (closed .49) with expiration on Aug 6. We had a pretty good dip in the market to start the day but all of the positive things are still in place. If you noticed XLF rebounded nicely and ended up pretty flat on the day. Nasdaq fell right down to the 20 DMA which also happens to be a former breakout area, then it bounced and looks like it is ready to push ahead.

Today it will be like watching paint dry until Powell comes out to sing at 2PM. You can see the writing on the wall here with the Jackson Hole thing coming up in a couple of weeks, and the recovery still not fully engaged, he will say that inflation is transitory and confined to certain sectors, like all the stuff I and you buy, but not in other fantasy sectors. Then right at 2 for some reason the market will wake up and swing wildly. If it pops up, I'll probably sell 50 contracts and wait for the swing to come back down and rebuy them on the bottom of the wave. If it swings down, I'll come over the top and buy another 5Gs worth when I think the bottom is intraday. What is that level on the SPY? Well 436 was yesterdays low and a nice round number, below that we have the gap down at 435.50, then the line in the sand intraday for me is 433.50.

Either way its going to be a fun 3 days going into the weekend

You got 20% of the open interest in that contract.

I could see a rally in the banks so good luck.

I'm shorting GME and AMC calls like a rock star.

Slurry Pumper · 07-28-21, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

You got 20% of the open interest in that contract.

I could see a rally in the banks so good luck.

I'm shorting GME and AMC calls like a rock star.

Roy, you make me a little nervous when you start pointing out my domination of this contract. I think interest will pick up after the fed speaks.

RoyBacon · 07-28-21, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

Roy, you make me a little nervous when you start pointing out my domination of this contract. I think interest will pick up after the fed speaks.

LOL don't sweat it buddy. You're trading against the box(floor traders). They could nip you with a soft bid when you go to sell them and maybe you see a bid something like 6 offered at 1.03. But as you can see there are a lot of floor traders bidding/Asking so you're fine.

Option

Aug 06 2021 36.5 Call

$0.38

-0.11

348

Bid 0.41

Ask 0.44

205

Runeblade · 07-28-21, 11:37 AM

trobin31 · 07-28-21, 06:59 PM

Dxy and TLT look ready for pullbacks, while US10Y showing signs of reversal.

The mask mandate is very bullish for reopening stocks because it flattens height and duration of peak. So staying bullish on energy and select reopening plays, mostly some airlines and casinos.

Covid data looks okay, I am maintaining the same stance I’ve held on delta variant and its effect in pandemic since past month, cases will soar, but luckily not enough to impact economy. So this means interest rates will be higher by eoy and you have to stay diligent on valuations if you are getting into growth names. Higher rates will punish overvalued stocks badly.

I am staying overweight in artificial intelligence stonks for long term and I am a weekly close above a 20MA on BTC before going full leverage.

Slurry Pumper · 07-29-21, 06:56 AM

Well try to form the Fed did generate a little bit of volatility. I sold 20 contracts of the XLF I had at .55 cents, and since I am the dominate player in this particular game, it all shows up as me on the chart. Kind of weird then just before the close, I did buy back 10 of those contracts for another ride up this morning while people buy up the RobinHood. I wouldn't recommend getting into the IPO as I think the trading platform is like being at the kiddy table during thanksgiving. For today however the hype machine should do it well.

RoyBacon · 07-29-21, 08:19 AM

A lot of earnings this AM.

TTE in line. The French oil and gas giant's revenue for the June quarter totaled a jaw dropping $41.63 billion, nearly doubled compared with $21.56 billion last year.

A good trade is CVX with their earnings coming out tomorrow. They will drop a few jaws too you can bet on that.

Shell started the parade with a blowout $5.5 billion earned in just the 2nd qtr and raised the anty by increasing their dividend and announcing a buyback. $5.5 billion is a lot of mullah for a 90 day period.

Big oil is hated by Wokeville. But an ole chap can make money with them.

trobin31 · 07-29-21, 12:47 PM

Dxy and bonds getting whacked just like it was setting up....commodities, gold, steel, and tech could have a nice run here...who knows with all this chop....I did buy some SAVE; Spirit Airlines and Pinterest; PINS(reports after hours, I think they will crush)

if you like the commodities angle UYM probably best bang for your buck

Slurry Pumper · 07-29-21, 01:34 PM

Took 75 of the option calls XLF Strike 36.50 at a price of .67. That's almost a doubling so while it is up there I have to take profits. The rest will let run and decide going into the weekend to see if I'll hang on or not.

RoyBacon · 07-29-21, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

Took 75 of the option calls XLF Strike 36.50 at a price of .67. That's almost a doubling so while it is up there I have to take profits. The rest will let run and decide going into the weekend to see if I'll hang on or not.

Good trading. Hard to call the open tomorrow. AMZN is down $170 on what could be a head fake on earnings, the SPY is little changed AH.

RoyBacon · 07-29-21, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Good trading. Hard to call the open tomorrow. AMZN is down $170 on what could be a head fake on earnings, the SPY is little changed AH.

If it's a head fake it's a damn good one AMZN down $244. Pinterest's is even better down 17%.

Chevron is out before the bell in the AM. We could see techs go soft and non techs be alright.

Mac4Lyfe · 07-29-21, 04:25 PM

Moderna all over the damn place. I lost about $6k when I bought it Tuesday morning but it looks like I'm up $1.4k now. Very weird? I thought it was down the last few days???

MRNAMODERNA INC COM

$345.640-$3.68

-$736.00

-1.05%

+$1,368.00+2.02%

$69,128.00

200.000

$338.80/Share$67,760.00

I'm staying pat on Phizer. It may have a nice run as Delta variant spreads.

Mac4Lyfe · 07-29-21, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

If it's a head fake it's a damn good one AMZN down $244. Pinterest's is even better down 17%.

Chevron is out before the bell in the AM. We could see techs go soft and non techs be alright.

Chevron should have great earnings. They're printing cash.

RoyBacon · 07-29-21, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

Chevron should have great earnings. They're printing cash.

I have an over the top long position on CVX hoping for at least 1.68, the est is 1.54. My call is at least 1.73. It's a tough call because they only put up .90 in Q1.

We got HK in a bloody mess and Europe will follow suit. Red everywhere gold, oil, Japan down sharply. But say s $1.85 qtr from bellweather CVX could change everything.

RoyBacon · 07-30-21, 05:41 AM

CVX

reported Friday Q2 adjusted earnings of $1.71 per share, compared with an adjusted loss of $1.56 per share last year. Analysts polled by Capital IQ had an average adjusted EPS forecast of $1.60.The company said revenue increased to $37.6 billion from $13.49 billion in Q2 2020. The CapIQ mean for Chevron's ( CVX ) Q2 revenue stood at $35.98 billion.

RoyBacon · 07-30-21, 05:46 AM

You need an early morning eye popper?

CVX's revenue was $37.6 billion, up from a mere $13.49 billion in Q2 2020. LOL

We are still in for a bloody day except for CVX.

Slurry Pumper · 07-30-21, 06:55 AM

AMZN reported and it was a sell da news type of event. This morning they are a great can'tidate for one of my falling knife day trades.

Right now pre-market they are at $3355, when the market opens there is a range close by that starts at $3300ish down to $3200 there about.

I'm a buyer starting at the top of the range and all through the range to the bottom. If however the price dips below $3100, I'm out and licking my wounds.

A spike doesn't count, they will have to close a 15 minute candle or 2 for me to leave.

trobin31 · 07-30-21, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

AMZN reported and it was a sell da news type of event. This morning they are a great can'tidate for one of my falling knife day trades.

Right now pre-market they are at $3355, when the market opens there is a range close by that starts at $3300ish down to $3200 there about.

I'm a buyer starting at the top of the range and all through the range to the bottom. If however the price dips below $3100, I'm out and licking my wounds.

A spike doesn't count, they will have to close a 15 minute candle or 2 for me to leave.

if Amazon dips to 3000-3100 I’m going to add more

trobin31 · 07-30-21, 08:43 AM

HOOD IPO is over and it’s looking like it was at least at short term top signal....hope you saved money to buy some dips...now the question is whether they’ve conditioned everyone enough to buy the dip before the dippity dip. I like to key in on big moving averages if it looks like a sustained pullback, first the 20 MA goes, then the 50, 100, 150, 200...if the vix doesn’t spike but instead swells over days we are in for Max fear pullback. This has been one choppy market, you can take chances but important to set stop losses. I have gone to only leap options cause I don’t have the quant savvy to not get chopped up. Otherwise I am sticking to day trading and swing trading shares.

This my approach anyway, if you are patient and can wait for bottom it’s probably best to Ape in at better value. This is why I am terrible at shopping for clothes, groceries, I just buy the first item I like, so knowing your own tendencies but using it to your advantage to prevent mistakes is of utmost importance

RoyBacon · 07-30-21, 08:56 AM

Thinking about shorting HOOD since there is an excellent place to put a STOP, basically at its all time high of $40. Plus it's weak. Dropped on its debut and down again today. Could we have a string down to $25?

Slurry Pumper · 07-30-21, 08:56 AM

AMZN came down and stopped at 3307 and now it is hanging around just above the entry point so this trade is off the table. I will still be a buyer at 3200 if it turns and heads south to that point quickly.

RoyBacon · 07-30-21, 08:59 AM

Well, don't try to short HOOD at Fidelity;

(PA0012) Your order to sell short can not be accepted. The security is either ineligible to short, there are currently no shares available to short, or there are insufficient shares available to meet your request. Please revise your share quantity or contact a representative for additional detail.

BOA12 · 07-30-21, 10:21 AM

Talked to chico this AM, please keep him in your thoughts.

KVB · 07-30-21, 05:22 PM

Sanity Check · 07-30-21, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

Chevron should have great earnings. They're printing cash.

homie1975 · 07-30-21, 06:35 PM

Originally posted by BOA12

Talked to chico this AM, please keep him in your thoughts.

Absolutely.

trobin31 · 07-30-21, 10:44 PM

What a week...I largely view this as what might be the last week of chop city and another step towards a push higher....oil and btc both reversing are saying two very important things!

1) Oil demand is rising and wasn’t affected despite a declining bond yield....so I look at this Delta scare as largely a big head fake until I see hospitalizations & deaths rising(sorry if my language seems crude but these are variables). Anyway, crude is rebounding and dow transportation average looks like it may have hit a bottom....all bullish for human consumption of energy...meaning we are learning to live with whatever form of Covid exists right now, hopefully we’ll be able to go see family for winter holidays�� and energy will finish this year plus the next in the Captain seat.

2) IF BTC continues to rally I would view this as a major risk-on sentiment...at least until end of year...which would coincide nicely with Fed potentially tapering and rates rising by early 2022...by then the ones who decided to quit work again to chase FOMO will likely be bag holders.

trobin31 · 07-30-21, 10:48 PM

My general thesis behind China and tech right now is there is just too much of a risk premium in both cases...China for obvious reasons...they’ve basically added a deduction premium for Foreign investors...and despite some of the back tracking this week I’m inclined to think major institutional money as well as domestic money will be seeking safer haven until CCP enters into their loosening phase...I am okay sticking with one company for broad exposure but I don’t think the damage has been fully priced in yet. They even went so far as curbing crypto outflows when they knew people would try to send money out of China with recent policy changes. As for tech....the momentum has been great but you really have to remember what will happen WHEN not IF rates rise....so you really have to choose wisely and stick with very strategic momentum plays or long term high convictions....if that means China is your high conviction long term play, well I see China moving towards nationalizing more and more as the threat of wealthy Chinese leads towards democratizing politics, and not just commerce. I am not saying whether this is good or bad...just calling it like I see it...I think this is how money managers not only in US but also in China are seeing it as well. You have to deduct for risk, plain and simple.