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Winnipeg today fellas!!Comment -
Sometimes models just diverge and converge with the markets in awkward ways. Not every model is right on every time and the differences and swings can be huge. Sometimes there isn’t a mistake, it’s just that way. For example, this week I have predicted Saskatchewan to win by twenty points, many have Winnipeg winning by a few. The second game today is even worse. I have Calgary winning by 24 points, many have Edmonton to win.
Our numbers differ in these games, but look at the first game this week. We were very close on the spread and the total. Two weeks ago we had similar agreement with Hamilton and they lost to Montreal. This week they covered.
See the give and take? I should have taken Hamilton last night…lol.
Remember, on any given game, a model could be 60% while another is 40%. On the next game, the two models could be reversed. I’ve posted about this in other threads but suffice to say there are many ways to handicap sports, there are as many ways as there are handicappers.
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I think it's going to be a good game. I feel we won't know the answer to this game until very late.
I'm taking Saskatchewan here, I think the markets are going take a little back here. When I consider the flow of money, I believe that many who hit with Hamilton last night will be putting there money on Winnipeg.
I don't know why you pull the trigger Booya, but I believe you could be an example of this money flow. It doesn't mean you won't win, I'm just recognizing the give and take nature of these markets.
Good Luck Booya!
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One of us will be a winner! GL KVB!!I think it's going to be a good game. I feel we won't know the answer to this game until very late.
I'm taking Saskatchewan here, I think the markets are going take a little back here. When I consider the flow of money, I believe that many who hit with Hamilton last night will be putting there money on Winnipeg.
I don't know why you pull the trigger Booya, but I believe you could be an example of this money flow. It doesn't mean you won't win, I'm just recognizing the give and take nature of these markets.
Good Luck Booya!
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For the second game today I have Calgary scoring 24 points to Edmonton not scoring at all. That’s right, not at all. Many models have Edmonton in a much closer game, if not winning altogether. Like the first game today, I differ significantly from many others. This line opened with Edmonton -1 ticked up to 2 then made its way to essentially a pick ‘em with Edmonton keeping the -1 in some houses. I would expect to see further pressure on Calgary at those houses as this line makes its way to a pick ‘em everywhere.
The Total had an early open of 48 and was picked up around the world as it dropped to 47.5 and then 47. Almost all models have a lower scoring game. I can see some pressure on the Over but it is not much. That pressure could increase to groups reacting to the first game, depending on what they see.
One area my predictions may differ than others could have to do with recent performance. While season averages keeps these team close, more recent performance shows Calgary with a very strong defensive rating, one of the best this year. Edmonton had a similar run of strong defense this year while playing a similar caliber of teams. Calgary’s offense has also done well with these teams, while Edmonton has struggled a bit on offense, with the exception of the Toronto game.
While strength of schedule may have temporarily caused this shutout in my predictions, the strength of schedule won’t be as influential in the outcome of this game. Calgary, coming off of an easier schedule ran into Edmonton and was challenged. Last week I had Calgary winning 30 or 31 to 10. The game was closer and very defensive.
This week I have fewer points for each team but the margin of victory is close to the same.
Bottom line, these teams should play each other close, and probably in an Under.
As more information comes in I will likely make a decision here. I mentioned what I thought of this game in an earlier post and, in terms of the market I would like to see one of the two lines today move enough to cross the pick ‘em, that would give us a glimpse into the flow of money.
I’ll check back in as information comes through the pipeline.
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I've been behind this week and need to do a review. Not just a basic results review, which looks pretty good, but a I wanted to add a few layers to the review. Unfortunately, like I said, I am behind this week.
Review coming.Comment -
For the 1st game I'm going with:
o54
Probably won't do anything with the later game. GL fellas!Comment -
Pressure on that Under for the first game. Pinny holding on to 50.5 while some houses showing 49.Comment -
Pressure on Winnipeg too. Some houses moved across to Winnipeg -1, some moved quickly back to pick 'em.
Good Luck Booya, Winnipeg is due and my predictions are 6-1 against the spreads and moneylines over the last 7 games. My predictions had Hamilton winning big over two opponents and they covered. I now have Saskatchewan scoring 39 points. At some point I have to break...lol
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I think the plays is Calgary Under...Winniepeg looks really close on the number. I like Calgary on the spread better but I like the Under more in that one. GL this evening gents.Last edited by Ra77er; 09-12-15, 05:22 PM.Comment -
Rough riders can score 39 as long as Winnipeg gets 40!!Pressure on Winnipeg too. Some houses moved across to Winnipeg -1, some moved quickly back to pick 'em.
Good Luck Booya, Winnipeg is due and my predictions are 6-1 against the spreads and moneylines over the last 7 games. My predictions had Hamilton winning big over two opponents and they covered. I now have Saskatchewan scoring 39 points. At some point I have to break...lol
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I just picked up Edmonton Eskimos pk (-106) and -1 (+102) over Calgary Stampeders.
Good Luck.
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I saw that 51 hanging out there at MGM...lol
They haven't budged one bit since they opened. I think they're scared. Probably hit with limit bets from some of their sharps or they really want the Under money.
Probably afraid to shift.Comment -
So far playing to Saskatchewan and Under. If there's deception, one of those will change.Comment -
Here’s a link to the first quarter review of plays…
Here is a detailed review through week 10, similar to the above review.
Like last time, I have broken this down into the all bold plays I’ve listed as well as just the first buy point for each game. On the left is my record per game. If you just entered the market once, on my first play posted, then that would be an issue.
You can see the results per $100 bet for each bold play and each issue.
There is also a crude review of the closing line and whether it was beat.
There is also a column where you can see whether I, or the models being worked with, predicted the line movement.
Like the first quarter, I didn’t always get the best line, but there were no unpredictable movements on these plays.
Issue $100 Bet Closing Beat the Predict Record Play Result Per Bold Per Issue Price Closer? Movement? 0-1 30-Jul BC -200 L -100 -100 -140 - Y 0-2 BC -4.5 (-110) L -100 -100 -2.5 - Y BC -2.5 (-110) L -100 BC -4.5 (+107) L -100 BC -155 L -100 BC -2.5 (-105) L -100 BC -3 (+107) L -100 BC -135 L -100 BC -127 L -100 1-2 31-Jul SSK/Edm UNDER 48 (-108) W 92.59 92.59 47.5 + Y 2-2 Edm -10 (+100) W 100 100 -9.5 - Y Edm -9.5 (-105) W 95.24 Edm -10 (+105) W 105 Edm -10 (+107) W 107 Edm -9 (-108) W 92.59 3-2 Edm 2nd -3.5 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 = 4-2 1-Aug Cal -200 W 50 50 -220 + Y 4-3 Mon/Cal OVER 47.5 (-105) L -100 -100 48 + Y 5-3 Cal 2nd -210 W 47.62 47.62 -210 = Y 6-3 3-Aug Ham -3.5 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 -3.5 = Y 6-4 Tor/Ham OVER 53.5 L -100 -100 53.5 = Y 7-4 6-Aug Edm/BC OVER 47 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 46.5 - Y 8-4 7-Aug Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 46 - Y Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (-102) W 98.04 Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (-103) W 97.09 Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (-110) W 90.91 Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (+100) W 100 Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (-101) W 99.01 Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (-105) W 95.24 Mon/Ott OVER 46 (-105) W 95.24 = Y 8-5 9-Aug Win/Ham OVER 52.5 (-105) L -100 -100 52 - Y 9-5 13-Aug Edm +2 (-107) W 93.46 93.46 1.5 + Y 10-5 Edm +115 W 115 115 105 + Y 11-5 Edm LIVE +9.5 (-110) W 90.91 90.91 11-6 15-Aug Ham -7.5 (-145)/Ott +8.5 (-110) L -100 -100 =/- Y 12-6 BC/Ham Over 50 (-105) W 95.24 95.24 50 = Y 12-7 20-Aug BC -135 L -100 -100 -135 = Y 12-8 BC -3 (+108) L -100 -100 -2.5 = Y 12-9 BC 2nd -3 (+116) L -100 -100 -3 = 13-9 21-Aug Ham -2 (-110) W 90.91 90.91 -2 = Y 14-9 Ham -130 W 76.92 76.92 -130 = Y Ham -125 W 80 -130 + Y 15-9 Ham/Edm OVER 49 (+109) W 109 109 48 - Y Ham/Edm OVER 48.5 (+103) W 103 48 - Y 15-10 22-Aug SSK +240 L -100 -100 +195 + Y 15-11 23-Aug OTT +380 L -100 -100 +340 + Y 16-11 OTT 2nd +3.5 (-110) W 90.91 90.91 3.5 = 17-11 27-Aug Mon +450 W 450 450 +450 = 18-11 Mon +9.5 (-103) W 97.09 97.09 11 - Y 19-11 28-Aug Tor/Edm OVER 48.5 (-105) W 95.24 95.24 49.5 + Y Tor/Edm OVER 49 (-103) W 97.09 + 19-12 30-Aug SSK/Ott OVER 50.5 (-105) L -100 -100 51 + Y 19-12 1527.7 872.25 7-2-1 1st Quarter Results 424.05 437.52 26-14-1 Total 1951.75 1309.77
For the second quarter I was 19-12 on individual issues and overall I am 26-14-1. Of those 26 wins and 14 losses, 9 wins and 5 losses are Totals.
Also, of that 26-14 record, 6 wins and 4 losses were from moneyline bets.
That leaves an 11-5 overall record against the sides.
If you bet the just the first buy point listed in bold for each game you would be positive 8.72 units weeks 6-10 and positive over 13.09 units overall. The 6-4 moneyline record shows profit and accounts for about 4.09 of those 13.09 units.
A bettor betting each bold play posted would be up 15.28 units this quarter and 19.51 units overall.
We were at 20 Units on the trading side until the last Total, a loss.
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Now let’s look at the predictions I’ve given for each game against their respective moneylines, spreads and totals through week 10:
Model Performance vs. ATS ML Totals 1st quarter 10-2 5-7 5-5 2nd Quarter 12-7 13-7 8-11 Total Records 22-9 18-14 13-16
As expected, the moneyline performance has improved and the performance against the sides has slowed a bit. Also as expected, the totals have started to drift away from 50-50.
In week 11, the predictions were 3-1 against both the moneylines and pointspreads and 2-2 against the totals.
After tonight’s game, my predictions will be 1-1 in all three categories this week.
It’s always good to see what condition your condition is in.
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For the last game this week I have a predicted score of British Colombia’s 24 points to Ottawa’s 22. BC winning by a couple is in agreement with a number of models, some with BC winning by more. It seems many models have up to 50 or more points for a Total. This line opened with BC -4 and has ticked down to 3.5 in many places.
The Total has opened at 50.5 and has barely budged. There is pressure on both sides here. If anything, I would expect to see downward pressure before game time. In my opinion, this line is more likely to hit 50 or below than go to 51.
We just had a Saskatchewan vs. Winnipeg game this week that sat at 50.5 for most of the time; that game went Under. Perhaps the books are trying catch some market bettors supporting the Over. After all, the match between those two teams a week ago was also a 50.5 line and it went Over. We saw a natural give back in that game this week, with that line.
For the most part these offered lines are pretty sharp. I can see why the -4 dropped to -3.5 and while I think the Total could be lower, I can identify a couple of groups that may take the over if it drops.
In anticipation of a move, I am going to pick up Under 50.5 (-106) for Ottawa RedBlacks vs. British Colombia Lions. As far as against the spread and moneyline, I have metrics showing that this game may need to be a pass.
Good Luck.
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wish i saw this... calgary focked me
ONLINE
09/11/2015
12:05 AM
[ # 224467665 ] PARLAY (11 TEAMS) ( Risk: 1.00 - Win: 482.53 ) LOSE 09/12/2015 @ 12:10 PM CFB [317] HOUSTON U +15-135 (B+1.5 ) Score: HOUSTON U(34) - LOUISVILLE(31) WIN 09/12/2015 @ 08:10 PM CFB [321] TEMPLE +8-155 (B+1.5 ) Score: TEMPLE(34) - CINCINNATI U(26) WIN 09/12/2015 @ 03:40 PM CFB [354] VIRGINIA +13-145 (B+1.5 ) Score: NOTRE DAME(34) - VIRGINIA(27) WIN 09/12/2015 @ 06:10 PM CFB [383] OKLAHOMA -120 Score: OKLAHOMA(31) - TENNESSEE U(24) WIN 09/11/2015 @ 07:40 PM CFB [453] HAMILTON -2-160 (B+1.5 ) Score: HAMILTON(35) - TORONTO(27) WIN 09/12/2015 @ 09:45 PM CFB [457] CALGARY +3-160 (B+2) Score: CALGARY(16) - EDMONTON(27) LOSE 09/13/2015 @ 04:05 PM CFB [459] OTTAWA +6.5 -155 (B+2) Score: OTTAWA(0) - B.C. LIONS(0) PEND 09/11/2015 @ 07:15 PM MLB [901] TOTAL o7.5 -115 (MIL BREWERS vrs PIT PIRATES)( J NELSON -R / C MORTON -R ) Score: MIL BREWERS(3) - PIT PIRATES(6) WIN 09/11/2015 @ 10:25 PM MLB [913] TOTAL o7-110 (SDG PADRES vrs SFO GIANTS)( A CASHNER -R / J PEAVY -R ) Score: SDG PADRES(1) - SFO GIANTS(9) WIN 09/11/2015 @ 07:15 PM MLB [915] TOTAL o8.5 -120 (KC ROYALS vrs BAL ORIOLES)( D DUFFY -L / M WRIGHT -R ) Score: KC ROYALS(8) - BAL ORIOLES(14) WIN 09/11/2015 @ 07:20 PM MLB [919] TOTAL o7-109 (BOS RED SOX vrs TB RAYS)( W MILEY -L / C ARCHER -R ) Score: BOS RED SOX(4) - TB RAYS(8) WIN Comment -
Thanks KVB, couldn't find 50.5 but got 50 -102. Terrible bets from me in CFL tonight.Comment -
People just need to listen to me on this CFLComment -
When I talk about a review I don’t just mean the numbers and profit. It’s also good to review notes, games, teams, situations, etc. when playing this give and take world of market analysis.
Remember your record and how you reached your conclusions is unique to you. I can’t emphasize enough about how the creativity to win at sports betting isn’t just finding that right angle and thinking out of the box. It’s also in how you use your results.
For example, to take a vertical sort of view through the season let’s look at Winnipeg. Did you know, until this week, that in every game involving Winnipeg this season, my score predictions were successful against the spread? It doesn’t matter if they favored Winnipeg or not, it just matters that Winnipeg was in the game. When you do this type analysis for all teams you can get something like this (an O means the prediction was successful against the spread in the game, an X means it was unsuccessful)…
Notice in the picture that I have also separated the teams by conference.
In this give and take world, what happens in the first half of the season tends to even out in the second half. Many of you know this from the NFL and I have also done very well measuring models against market behavior in that league.
Take a look at Winnipeg. They were sure due today for many reasons…lol.
Often this can be helpful when there are extremes. You can analyze across, like Winnipeg, or you can analyze down. Look at week 12 so far. The West has failed and the East succeeded so far across the board. My prediction has Ottawa losing by 2 points, meaning Ottawa +4 is the ATS prediction. A BC cover would add an X to BC and Ottawa; completing all X’s for the East. An Ottawa cover puts an “O” in BC and gives all O’s to the West.
Now you can also go both ways. Look at week 11 in the East. The difference is that the BC “X” came in the first game. Week 12 has BC in the final game. But perhaps a week of all X’s are due. Look at the East in weeks 4, 5 and 6.
Learning how charts like this form can lead to a great understanding of the condition that your condition is in. With enough data and situational notes (quantified), you can even gain regressions and apply other market analyses.
There are many ways to process the information you create and I hope an example like this can get you thinking.
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One more thing about the picture above; now there are a lot of O’s in that pic as my predictions have done well. But I remember one year, in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers were 5 or 6 straight X’s when my math was involved. They had injuries early in the season and failing in general.
For other market reasons, I was looking for a certain future number. I was line shopping in the since that I was shopping for a specific number. Then I found it with Green Bay.
Knowing the give and take of it all, from a market perspective I reasoned that the team that wins the Superbowl would likely not have been involved in paying as much to certain bettors through the season. The markets tend to balance out when it comes to these kinds of numbers and early season failure can often lead to later season success. It is the same way in many NFL aspects.
It was the only future play I made that year, in week 5 or 6, and sure enough, Green Bay won the Superbowl that year.
Funny how things tend to even out, I learned a valuable lesson that year.
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Yeah, 50 is the number I got. Not firing on all cylinders today.
