i know how this looks and i want to make this very clear. I am not biased on the broncos, they are underated. Untill vegas starts correcting these lines i will keep betting this team accordingly.
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are you from denver kevin? i actually see that line staying around 4/4.5.
nice start to the season bro.Comment -
Let's go jetsComment -
dam so close jets. I am impressed with the fins offense this game....
well we are up .9 units on the week. 5 winning weeks in a row. on to week 6 guysComment -
yea jets bummed me out.
Oh well.. still a gain, how ever small it may be. 
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Football is a funny game. Who would have ever thought the NY Jets would give up 21 points in the 4th quarter. Tough loss for sure.
Just wanted to point out one game that has caught my eye with early RLM.
Det opened at +11 and so far 65% of the money is on them...the line has already jumped 2 points to +13.5. Man I wish I got GB at -11. The books seem to be begging people to bet Det here. Keep your eye on this one.Comment -
as a note this texans play will be big, we are waiting on our key number.
no go on GB!!!!!Comment -
My primative thinking on this play is that the Bengals haven't beaten a team by more than 3 points since the week 2 win (by 7) against GB, and the Bengals seem to play to the level of their opponent. They edged out tough wins against GB, PIT, and BAL but barely beat the hapless Browns in OT. Bengals have a good run D, but HOU doesn't run the ball. Bengals have an average pass D, and HOU has a top 5 pass offense. And as we all saw last week HOU has no trouble moving the ball and scoring even when down 21-0. I'm sure I'm missing a lot more factors to this game, but thats what I'm seeing right now....Comment -
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Eagles -14 4U
seahawks -3 6U
Jaguars -9.5 3U
Chiefs +6.5 2U
panthers -3.5 1U
Giants +3.5 3UComment -
Eagles
First off i will up this play to 8 units
Now that i have had the time to watch the eagles last week twice i have noticed many things that the eagles are doing very well at, and after watching the raiders last three games yesterday i have noticed some big big big problems they will have matching up to the eagles.
First thing that pops out is J. russel. This guy would not play if he was on any other team, either gradkowski or frye would be playing much better. Russel has great tallent but can't play the game of football. when ever there is any pressure on him he totaly implodes. He can't get the throw anywhere near his WRs plus his widouts have no talent to go get the ball. This is going to be super ugly going against the eagles defense. they bring the pressure with the blitz but can also get to the qb rushing only 4. Oakland has a desent o line but the recievers can not get seperation (especially against a talented secondary) so there should be plenty of coverage sacks here. When there is pressure on russel, he either takes off running or makes a terrible throw so we should see interceptions. When it is a throwing situation (eagles with a big lead) or 3rd and long, russel can't to save his life throw an accurate pass downfield. did i mention russel sucks?
The only chance that Oakland has to stay in this game is to establish the run. There are 2 problems that oakland will have in that department. Reid knows his secondary can put the clamps on russel, he can focus here on stopping the run with extra personell and stack the box. the most likely scenario here is the Raiders will be in such a big hole early that they will have to abandon run. did i mention russel is going against the 4th ranked passing D.
The eagles qb is far greater than the above. Mcnabb should have major success in this game. he is although going against the best cb namdi asmugoa (spelling wtf?) but the eagles have sooo many weapons and the raiders are sooo porous on defense. for one they only have 5 sacks this year so mcnabb should have all day in the pocket to locate his WRs downfield. Also the raiders have allowed 161 yards per game on the ground, so this should set up mcnabb for play action and also manageable 3rd downs.
The eagles won their last gam e 33-14. I would not be shocked if the eagles win by a larger margin than that and hold oakland to less than a td. I was told by a friend so i went and checked, sure enough, in the last 3 games alone the raiders have lost 96-16 combined.
This game smells like an old fashoined beat down. 14 pts is not nearly wnough, i would not bet on the raiders if i got 25 pts.Comment -
To add to that eagles write-up i don't see how the raiders can get up for this gaem after getting smoked by the giants badly.
Seahawks
This game is basically the same type matchup as last week against the cards.
The Seahawks have a great passing offense against the cards terrible secondary. Out texans bet should have covered because the cardinals secondary allowed schaub to march down the field with ease in the second half. The passing offense stats are misconstrude for seattle because hasslebeck was injured, in his recoup time seneca fil;led in for him so their air attack stats are FAR lower than reality.When hasselbeck did start he was able to shred defenses with his extremely talented wide recievers. Seatle will probably have trouble gaining much ground running the ball, but seattle has been satisfactory in this department. either way seattle should be able to consistently move the chains as well as their big play capabilty could be good for a couple downfield strikes.
The cardinalks meanwhile have a very good arial attack. luckily for seattle they are ranked 9th in pass defense. a big part of this is there d line's abilty to get after the qb. They have 14 sacks this year but they have gotten a lot of pressure on their opponent's qb with just 4 rushers. this is great because the cards offensive line has looked awfull lately. Another note to add, the cards are ranked 3rd passing offense but look at some of their opposition-49ers,jacksonville, houston, bye week, and indi (the only good D). Also, the cards do not run the ball which is why they only get 56 yards per game on the ground. IMO kurt has not been very good this year and does not deserrve to be 3rd ranked.
1 more not about this matchup is the seahawks have a good home ats and the cards have a bad away ats.
ps. we should have won the texans pick last week, so we get it back here and we are given a better line than we deserve if texans would have covered.Comment -
thoughts guys...on any other games?Comment -
ok we are still going to take the texans, this is my 2nd-3rd most confident pick this week.
Also we are taking....
jets -9.5 2U this is there rebound game
Bears +3.5 1U
Vikings -3 1UComment -
we are waiting for our key number, hold your horses we should get another 1/2 pt maybe a full pt.
I will do a write-up on this game for you sibeComment -
the texans spread is at 5.5 pts. i don't see it at 6 anywhere, does anybody? anyway, i'm not concerned about getting them at 5 if the line moves because 5 and 5.5 is not significant. 6 pts on the other hand is. I can never recomend buying pts. either. some people swear by it but i say neverComment -
ok, making this write-up quik
texans
last week cincy put everything they had into a smash mouth game against the ravens. they sqeezed a victory out, and now are playing an inferior team this week, before playing cutler and the bears next week. The bengals could show up flat here. The texans on the other hand lost a heartbreaker that they should have won. after some early woes they buckled down and really took it to the cards. they shutout the cards in the secon half and scored 3 (shoulda been 4) touchdowns in the second half. The texans are on a roll and should be able to pick up where they left off. schaub should be expected to light up the bengals d (ranked 23rd against the pass) but i don't see slaton getting very much ground running the ball, the bengals are ranked 12th rush defense and the texans have not had much success against anybody yet. Schaub however has really come to form and is throwing very accurate and smart. Palmer is as well and both teams have weapons on the field. Houston is miserable against the run which doesn't bode well for us considering cedric benson just ran for 100 against baltimore, no easy feat. Similar success will be had against houston, this means palmer should have a big day. Houston's young secondary is better than the statistics show (ranked 15th) but occocinco will have a lot of success. All that being said i beleive houston will make a statement in this game. it will be a close game of two high powered offenses. This pissed off houston team needs this win more than cincy. the texans lost (the public sees the score only) but this squad looked solid. this is a bad spot for cincy.
My pick...
texans +5.5 6U
texans ml +200 2U to win 4UComment -
look at who the ravens beat..........and how they won...............look at who beat the ravens............
factor in opposite field type and dome = vikings cover by 10
look at who diseccted the dirty birds last year in atlanta..........................jay cutler...let the public bet up the birds hot bears before game time ...take the points ...put 25% of bet mlComment -
p.s. there is a surge of texans backers
maybe they saw my post lol
j.k. but seriously get this in nowComment -
Ok. 1st off, I am upping the pats to 8U, this squad is pissed off and playing the 31st ranked pass D. This could get very ugly early on.
so for a recap...
pats -9 8U
Broncos +4 10U
Lions +14 3U
Eagles -14 8U
seahawks -3 6U
Jaguars -9.5 3U
Chiefs +6.5 2U
panthers -3.5 1U
Giants +3.5 3U
jets -9.5 2U
Bears +3.5 1U
Vikings -3 1U
texans +5.5 6U
texans ml +200 2U to win 4UComment -
kc +6.5 is my lock for the dayComment -
I know it is a big card, but unit wise it is no bigger than any other week.
now that we have 5 winning weeks under our belt and have not lost money a single week, we are feeling awfull confident about our picks. that being said, we still have to be carefull about what we are risking. we are not invinceable and our bankroll will be in danger if you wager too much of it. You need to excersize money management and bet these selections accordingly.
Maybe, an example is to wager 1% for every unit and you will only have half your bankroll dispersed between all wagers.
do what you gotta do but if you want to make it in this bussiness you need money management. we will have plenty of winning weeks ahead of us so jog this marathon with me, don't try to win the sprint because you will ALWAYS end up losing in the long run.Comment -
bears fan
i agree, redskins should not be favored by more than a field goal here. What have they done to be close to a td favorite?Comment -
up 3 after the noon gamesComment -
down 3...not the day we were hoping for. lets go broncos!Comment -
I'm so upset with myself for not betting GB. I stayed away from it but it had huge RLM. I also saw RLM in the NO/Giants game. The public was pounding the G-Men yet the line improved during the week for NO. Next I'm sticking to my guns and firing away on games like these.Comment -
ok the game we are sitting on are the bengals, dolphins(keep it to yourself!), and the browns. let the public buy these down for us. right now we are putting our hard earned money on the best qb playing right now.
colts -13 10U
get this in now, it will be a 14 pt spread before you know it
Giants -7 8U
you don't want this at -7.5, this team will rebound after being embarrassed.Comment -
it seems too easy pedro, im looking into itComment
