Damn Kev, another NFL sunday in the black! I didn't get home in time to catch your charger call but it was only for 2units, oh well. The MIA and DEN calls were awesome, I don't know many people that were going with either. Now lets see the Vikes dominate both sides of the ball 2moro
-
Comment -
WOW people are killin' it on this forum $$$. I'm going to start taking notes of who's picks to watch for lol. BUT THERE'S SO MANY NFL THREADS ON THIS FOURUM IT'S RIDICULOUS LOL.Bet To WinComment -
crazy!! pack looked like they were gonna get a td to blow our cover but they did the "fooball smart" and kicked the field goal. The Vikes dominated and the pack should have never been in that position anyway. I am studying games and see some leans right now for week 5. 4 winning weeks in a row. Congrats to whoever followed me this season so far, you made profit killing the books like i have. not a beutifull week like last, but we got it done.Comment -
Pedro, i count 18 Units up this week going 7-4. We have 3.4 units wasted on vig. so a grand total of 14.6 units up on the week! On the season through only 4 weeks we are already up 75.65 units. Week 5 shows hope to be great....but the books got beat again this week so the national fixed league might start fixing games idk. congrats!Comment -
Panther -3.5 8U
This is a good team. I mentioned this play 2 weeks ago, the panthers will be focused here coming out of the bye. The redkins are miserable, I will do a more extensive write up when i'm sober. strong play!Comment -
as a heads up we will be taking the broncos aftrer the public buys this line down for us.
The wildcat will not work against the jets
Jets -1.5 7U
Titans have no pass rush. Manning will locate WR. Only thing scaring me is titans rushing O vs. colts rushing D hence 5 units only
Colts -2.5 5UComment -
subscribing.. mad interested in this..Comment -
remember the plays i take at this time of the week are the plays the public is heavy on. This means right now is when we will get the best line rather then later. So get on these like.. now. Pedro, Then you get plays like the broncos, with 95% on the pats, this line will hopefully move from +3.5 up to +4.5 ideally.Comment -
I'm in.. lets hope for the best
Comment -
i have to take this now. I lean pit here but hate the big spread.
Pit -10.5 1UComment -
right now i see three games i like a lot for this week. 2 for sure will be 10 unit selections. This will be a great week.Comment -
crazy money coming in on the vikings right now!
We have to take them now
vikes -9.5 7U
cowboys - 8.5 3U
That should be it for now. I hate these big spreads so it has been hard to green light these plays. the rest of the plays we will see how the betting action plays out, our lines should move in our favor on the rest.Comment -
upping pit to 3 unitsComment -
we have rlm on the bengals here. before it goes down accross the board i'm taking a big play now.
Bengals +8.5 10UComment -
I have a concern/ question. I see the line opening at -6 Car. 70% on Car yet the lines comes down to -3.5. I agree that Car is in perfect spot here to win but I am confused about the line movement. Might lean towards betting the ML here or make it a no play for myself. What am I missing?Comment -
as far as the pit game.
Detroit made a statement by beating the redskins. well right now any team could, even the bucs should have. Anyway, staford is game time decision which doesn't bode well here and polomolu could be starting. The biggest thing that made my decision is the steelers re-found ability to run the ball, prior to this the game has been in big ben's hands. The lions rank 28th in ypc defensively so big ben should have a big game in the air especially since the lions are without a pass rush. When detroit has the ball, the clamps will be on. They shoutout the chargers all game untill too late when the "high powered offense" was able to make the big plays that the lions have trouble to muster. kevin smith will be innefective against pit's 3-4 and the lions inexperienced o-line will have trouble stopping the creative pressure pit is sure to bring. The RLM is the only reason this pick size is small, but this game has mismatch all over it. On top of that mike tomlin says the lions have improved (true) so he's not taking this game lightly. we can agree to disagree but i can't advise laying money on the lions here.
Also RLM is not 100%. It is ok to go against here and there but don't make a habit of itComment -
I don't know were you saw the line open at -6, i have it opening at -4.5 and moved to -3.5 within hours.
Anyway. The panthers we all know from last year is a good team. In this game The panthers need to be focused, they need this game much more than the redskins do. also the redskins aren't great at defending the run,ranked 18th. Well williams SHOULD get more than 11 caries this game and then they will avoid the costly turnovers their passing game has plagued them with. Jon Fox cut their at home time down 2 days and drilled them hard. this team will be focused here coming out of the bye. Washington barely beat tampa and st.louis and lost to detroit. their offense is not clicking. This play is based off the fact that they lost their game going into the bye, and now they had 2 weeks preperation. with an 0-3 record there is no such thing as a breather alert. The redskins have a decent defense but the panthers have 2 many weapons and the bye week should be the spark they need to make the big plays consistently they have been missing this year.Comment -
and ggplayer. just my 2 cents, Just ask my wife i've been wrong before. I never bet ML. Here and there on the dog, Never on the fav. The only time i ever bet ML is between a pk up to +2.5 pts. only because if i thought the game would be that close i wouldn't play it, also the odds that the game would be won by 1 or 2 pts i would rather take the 10-25 cents on the dollar just like i told pedro last week.Comment -
i don't like this game nearly as much at +2.5. Call me crazy...we'll see. I love this game. I said this thread is a 1-10 unit selection but since i am running this thread i can break the rules because i'm totaly awsome.
Broncos +3 even money 12UComment -
as well i don't like this game at +5.5. The texans should be closer to a pick em.
Texans +6 10UComment -
I could never make a relatively massive play against the Pats, no matter how dodgy they look and how solid the Broncos look. I agree with everything else though and i will be betting the majority of them no doubt, but betting against the Pats with that amount is bold......very brave. Best of luck though, no bet for meComment -
smogs, in this game there are all angles pointing at the broncos. I will do an extensive write-up tonight on this game. I like the matchup, field advantage, trends, coaching history- mcdaniels, momentum, and of course RLM.Comment -
with 95% of the public on the pats, most of you are on them as well, just remember you heard about this game from me first!Comment -
Totally agree with that statement. I just wanted to point it out to everyone. There is another guy on on this Forum who makes it a practice to fade the winner of a National TV game the next week. That with the fact that I am still seeing RLM just puts up some red flags for me. Every part of me says the Steelers will win and win big but that ususally ends up costing me money. I just find it amazing that much money can be on one team and it's line improves.Comment -
It shows it opened at -6 on the SBR Live Odds link at the top of the screen. That is the only thing I look at. It may be wrong and that is why I posted what I did. Again everything tells me that Car should win and cover but I just don't trust Jake "the turn over machine" Delhomme.Comment -
Ok maybe it's just me or these SBR Live Odds link are way off but I'm seeing RLM on a good chunk of game this week so far. Kevin where do you look for public money? I'm seeing 63% on NE. By the way I love the pick. Here's my take. Nobody I mean nobody is giving Denver any credit/respect this year and they are 4-0. Yeah I know they have played some weaker teams and some feel that their Def has truely not been tested. But I tell you what I watched a lot of that Dallas game and they are for real. The rest of the league better hope that Orton and B. Marshall do not get in tune with each other either. They have all the weapons they need on offense with the only thing holding them back is Orton. But he showed in Chi he can win and that is all that matters. Now NE surprised me last week by beating a very good Balt team. But this is not the NE team of old. Def is soft and Brady just seems off. I don't know guys a 4-0 team at home and getting points.......Broncos!! Just my 2 cents!
Here are all the games I see RLM so far according to SBR Live Odds:
Car opened -6, 69% on Car - line is now -3.5 Car
Pitt opened -11.5, 86% on Pitt - line is now -10.5 Pitt
SF opened -3, 60% on SF - line is now -2.5 and -2 on some books SF
NE opened -4, 63% on NE - line is now -3 NE
AZ opened -7, 57% on AZ - line is now -5.5 AZComment -
scoresandodds.com is where i find line movement and betting%Comment -
this is one of the weirdest week of spreads i've seen in a while in the NFL. I mean the Eagles favored by 15.5 over the buccs? Yet i still can't play tampa. So much less parity than most recent years in the NFL it seems. The only i like is Carolina. I love carolina in that spot. I think they win by 10.Comment -
1st off i want to apologize for this being so late. I just finished up watching the rest of the games. I tivo all the games and watch every single snap which really gives you a feel for these teams.
Broncos pick.
this line was opened at -3.5 pats. The publick was pounding the shiz out of NE (97%) and the line still moved to -3. this is a case of strong line movement, the public is currently at 89%. There is no way to determine the dollar value on either side, so with the % alone this tells us one of two things. 1-the BIG bets are coming in on the broncos, this would be good because the big bets are usually the Sharps. 2- the oddsmakers believe the broncos will cover, they lost ALOT of money the first 3 weeks and need to recoup so what better way than to win a lopsided bet game (great for us because we are on the oddsmaker geniuses side. which brings me to my next point. Always use caution when betting with the public on the high% side for the latter reason.
this season so far the pats have tried to be closer to a 50-50 pass run ratio. The game was managed well seting up play action for tom brady. Unfortunately for the pats Brady did not look like himself to start the year, missed open recievers, bad timed throws on timing routes, careless lobs when under pressure. Against the ravens # ranked rushing D there was no running game for the pats. Brady took the game into his hands and threw 21-of-32 for 258 yards which is good, not great. The Pats are back in form and should roll over this weak Denver D, right? Wrong! the ravens are ranked #26 against the pass where the Broncos are third in yards allowed. This is much due to the broncos having a pass rush this year, they already have 15 sacks on the year, incredible. Also one could argue champ bailey is the best corner in the nfl, not so much, but still a blanket that can take moss right out of the game. along with brian dawkins in the secondary. when brady is under pressure he will not have time to located WR downfield and hit the big plays. As well there will be no third and short consistently because the running game will not work against Denver either who are ranked 5th at rush D. Definiatly my biggest angle on this game is the Broncos new head coach mr. mcdanials. Catch this, Before coming to denver he was the patriots offensive coordinator,ha ha ha, he know this team better than he knows his own team yet. So he has a solid game plan to beat his former team, plus he would like nothing more than to beat his former team. So expect the broncos to come out here focused because because josh mcdaniels will make it very clear to them.
The broncos on the other hand are under rated because they do not have a flashy offense. Well think again, Brandon marshal is now on the same page with the rest of the team, along with eddie royal (um) and brandon stokely. there is a lot of firepower here. The biggest suprise to me this year is the broncos ability to run the ball effectively. Buckhalter may not play, oh well, we can see what moreno can do for this squad, i believe by the end of the year he will be the premier back in denver and will be known among the elite in the league. This is mostly due to IMO one of the leagues best offensive lines. Orton sucks bad, but i do give him credit at making smart decisions. He manages the game and does not get careless, but he has accuracy troubles and can't hit downfield targets. Now with Marshal focused the deep threat is there but it should open up more underneith oppertunitys and help the running game.
The patriots made a big statement against the ravens. The played a very physical game and came out on top. They could be flat here but don't count on it with belicheck at the helm. Brady has only looked good in 1 game so far and the public bought it thinking the pats hit their groove and they should go undefeated the rest of the year like 2 years ago. Wrong this is NOT the same team! They are getting the spread pounded because they are the popular team. Plus, no one believes the Broncos are for real yet giving us an extremely underated team, which the scary part is their getting better each game. They just beat Dallas and the Public is still against them, this is THEIR game to prove to all the media outlets that they are a legit contender
This game is played in Denver. Historically in every sport, Mile high city has proven great home field advantage. Besides the fact that the fans will be extremely excited and loud, the Pats have really struggled here in Denver.
I know i am the minority picking this game.I am loving this game, there is the write-up i promised. I hope this helps you learn something pedro. Good luck to us all
Comment