NFL season thread

[kevindakota00]

Alright the season is finally here!!! After killing the books in pre-season i'm looking make some serious money in '09. Had a great '08 season that i hope to top this year.

Vikes -3.5 (I played this huge at -3 2 weeks ago) 10U

Steelers -5 3U

Packers -3.5 2U

more to come when the lines make their move.

[Cougar Bait]

Cleveland gave up 151.9 rushing yards per game plus AP, I think that's a pretty solid play on the Vikings. Steelers I am not so sure about, I think Tennessee improved their offense enough to make this one close, if not an outright upset in the opener. I would lean Titans plus the points on that one. Packers/Bears...yeah everyone likes Green Bay and for good reason, they can throw the ball and have the targets to get numbers on the board. I watched all 4 of the Bears pre-season games and although the first unit played well they still had some problems stopping the pass. Plus Chicago tends to not fare so well against the 3-4 historically. That's probably a good play. GL with your plays Kevin.

[Danskeren]

Alright the season is finally here!!! After killing the books in pre-season i'm looking make some serious money in '09. Had a great '08 season that i hope to top this year.

Vikes -3.5 (I played this huge at -3 2 weeks ago) 10U

Steelers -5 3U

Packers -3.5 2U

more to come when the lines make their move.

I would stay of that Vikes game with 80-90% on them.
Think I'll wait the line out, and play the titans in the opening game - maybe with a 1-point buy.

But I like the Packers in this spot.

Good luck with your season!

[BGboothA]

Packers are my big bet of the week. Also like the Steelers on Thursday as well.

I am leaning Vikes, I have it capped at just under a TD. Will probably make a 1U bet on this myself. Why do you feel so confident in this pick? I am not disagreeing with you just want someone to talk me into more money.

[kevindakota00]

the defense is together, chemistry is felt here. E.J. Henderson is back from injury. Browns do not even know who their staring qb is. Offensive line is in distress for the browns. The Vikes Should blow this team out, They're better in every catagory including special teams. The williams wall is not suspended so don't count on cleveland running the ball. The vikings pass defense is underated in addition, mostly due to sharper via FA but his position has been filled. With the gaping holes on the browns off. line, quinn or anderson will be pressured. Vikes are underated this season, i will ride them untill the spreads are accounted.

Bengals-3.5 2U

Jaguars +7.5 3U

[Nickelicious]

The GB/Chi game could very easily be a 28-27 nailbiter. I'm on the Bears but do believe the Pack is a dangerous team with their offense. But there won't be a single player on that field that has more to prove than Jay Cutler. I wouldn't bet against him.

Regardless, this will be must-see TV!

[kevindakota00]

i believe cutler can destroy greenbay's secondary, but untill he does i will fade him and his recieverless team that has one of the most overrated defense imo.

[hockeybum16]

Bears can't stop the pass....they stack against the run and their linebackers play downhill. With protection, Rogers should have a good day. He has good WR's, a decent line, and a good running back. Also, Cutler is not going to have the breakout everyone thinks with switching to the Bears. He is an average QB who hasn't had a winning record as a QB since his senior year in HS. The preseason game against Denver was a good game, but the Packers are a lot better than the Broncos IMO. The Packers should put up enough points to win. The bears will be relying on Forte more than Cutler in this game, and don't forget about the downplayed RB named Ryan Grant.

I like the Packers -3.5

[kevindakota00]

welcome to sbr hockey bum

[kevindakota00]

i am adding Giants -6.5 for 3U

also upping steelers pick to 5U

[kevindakota00]

So far Picks are

Vikes -3.5 10U

Steelers -5 5U

Packers -3.5 2U

Bengals-3.5 2U

Jaguars +7.5 3U

Giants -6.5 for 3U

[kevindakota00]

seahawks -8.5 3U

[hockeybum16]

Thanks kevindakota.

I like the seahawks as well. While I think the 8.5 line is high for a division game between 2 average teams, IMO the general public is betting the right side on this one.

Since 2002, the seahawks are 4-3 SU in the opening week. They are 4-0 SU however against the NFC while 0-3 SU against the AFC.

The Rams on the other hand are 2-5 SU in the opening week. They are 1-4 SU agaisnt the NFC and 1-1 SU against the AFC.

Mora vs Spags should be a good game, but Seattle is the better team. If they expect to compete for the division, it all starts week 1. Take Seattle -8.5

[hockeybum16]

KD, your money pick is the Steelers huh? Any specific reason you like them the most this week?

That is a tough game to cap IMO, lot's of things going on in that game.

[hockeybum16]

Check that, you like the Vikings the most, didn't fully read the post

Still, any specific reason for the Steelers?

[kevindakota00]

49ers moved to my key number. They matchup well to the cards, would not be shocked if 49ers win or lose by less than a field goal.

49ers +7 5U

[kevindakota00]

hockey bum. The seahawks were plagued with injuries last year. Hasselbeck is healthy, look back to '07 for his effectiveness. Their WR core is upgraded, and their defense is WAY underated. the seahawks have won the last 8 matches. I don't respect seattles running game, but they will rank high in passing offense and the rams were ranked 31st in this department last year. this game has blowout all over it. congrats to everyone who got them at -7. Still at -8.5 this is a very strong play.

[yahoonino]

titan +6 ,,is a gift,,,take it,,,,

[yahoonino]

tennesse+6,,,,,,chicago+3.5,,,,,indianap olis-7,,,,,,miami +4,,,,,,take those 4 to the bank

[kevindakota00]

Check that, you like the Vikings the most, didn't fully read the post

Still, any specific reason for the Steelers?

The steelers is more of a situational play than a talent evaluation.

-steelers are at home (roughly 3 pt advantage)

-The titans debacled the steelers last year (revenge alert)

-Super bowl winners are undefeated week1 since they were allowed to host the first game in 2004)

-HAYNESWORTH (steelers are a power running team, now the titans have much less muscle upfront)

-chris johnson (yeah just the preseason, but he couldn't produce against VERY soft defenses)

-Big Ben (he will not throw 2 picks and 4 fumbles this time)

I hope this sums it up. Do not expect titans to win 13 games ats this year

[kevindakota00]

u'r against all my plays yahoo except Miami i'm not playing. Good Luck....but not really

[hockeybum16]

Love the 49ers!! They are my big play this week.

I agree with the comments on the Steelers as well. I do believe the line is at -5.5 for a reason. It seems like this game should be around the -1 or -2 line but smart money says to take the Steelers. I believe they will win, just fear it may be by a field goal as these two teams have the potential for an offensive or defensive shoot out.

I agree 100% with the Seahawks as well, that team is just flat out better than St. Louis in all areas. They had a rough year last year and I think many underrate them. They couldn't of asked for a better week 1 game.

I also think the Pats will be a blowout. How do you feel about the Texans -4.5 and the Giants -6.5?

[kevindakota00]

texans- I lean texans but i want to wait and see how sanchez does before i bet against him.

pats- the bills will not pressure brady at all. Bad things happen. I will lay a fun bet on pats but not a project play. thats a lot of pts!

[kevindakota00]

so many chances pissed away wtf

[kevindakota00]

taking toledo tonight

[kevindakota00]

marshal and loisiana tech today

[kevindakota00]

got my key number on the ravens

ravens -12.5 5U

[kevindakota00]

wow!!! killing the books today


16 units ahead in 1 day!!!!

Packers should destroy the bears secondary, I am moving this to a 4 unit play. 2 at -3.5 and 2 at -4.5

-3.5 was a week ago at +102

-4.5 is taday at -105

[kevindakota00]

up 20 units in 1 sunday! holy shit! what a day!

[kevindakota00]

pats -11 1U

Chargers -10 2U

[kevindakota00]

pit -2.5 5U

[kevindakota00]

so after week 1, after all said and done were up 17.15 units with vigorish included. now that i sobered up were on to week 2. so far i hopped the steelers for a whopping 5U, got it early because this line will move against us. I personally got the ravens during the chargers (while SD looked like shit) game last night. the spread was +5 at the time and i got it BIG. Now that the pub saw SD play poor football the spread has compensated to +3.5 on Ravens. This is not enough compensation, we are still above our key number of 3. Since i am posting it now, I will (as usual) take the current spread at the time i post.

Ravens +3.5 6U

[kevindakota00]

loving 4 games right now. 2 of these games will be wagered closer to kickoff to get a better line and a key number for the spread. I will do a writeup on all these games to explain why

-1st off the ravens should win this game outright. I am liking the ravens so much that i am upping the unit amount to 10 units, before the spread goes down to 3. there are several sites that still offer this game at 3.5

-secondly I am taking the Giants on the road to cover the number. IMO i believe dallas is the false favorite and a ML bet will be placed on the side. I am taking the Giants for 9 units.

[kevindakota00]

so to recap, wagers placed for week 2 so far

-Pit -2.5 5U

-Ravens +3.5 10U

Giants +3 9U

If anybody was wondering, I determine my unit amount anywhere between 1 - 10 units. I very rarely will ever bet on totals. I pay little attention to trends, each game is a new game. Studys for the following weekend's games starts 2 weeks ahead of time.

[kevindakota00]

Saints +1 2U

Browns +3.5 3U

Texans +7 4U

Falcons -6.5 1U

Pats -3.5 1U

Vikes -9.5 1U

Bucs +5 2U