any other games to breakdown? i will get to the giants pedro don't wory.
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1st off i want to apologize for this being so late. I just finished up watching the rest of the games. I tivo all the games and watch every single snap which really gives you a feel for these teams.
Broncos pick.
this line was opened at -3.5 pats. The publick was pounding the shiz out of NE (97%) and the line still moved to -3. this is a case of strong line movement, the public is currently at 89%. There is no way to determine the dollar value on either side, so with the % alone this tells us one of two things. 1-the BIG bets are coming in on the broncos, this would be good because the big bets are usually the Sharps. 2- the oddsmakers believe the broncos will cover, they lost ALOT of money the first 3 weeks and need to recoup so what better way than to win a lopsided bet game (great for us because we are on the oddsmaker geniuses side. which brings me to my next point. Always use caution when betting with the public on the high% side for the latter reason.
this season so far the pats have tried to be closer to a 50-50 pass run ratio. The game was managed well seting up play action for tom brady. Unfortunately for the pats Brady did not look like himself to start the year, missed open recievers, bad timed throws on timing routes, careless lobs when under pressure. Against the ravens # ranked rushing D there was no running game for the pats. Brady took the game into his hands and threw 21-of-32 for 258 yards which is good, not great. The Pats are back in form and should roll over this weak Denver D, right? Wrong! the ravens are ranked #26 against the pass where the Broncos are third in yards allowed. This is much due to the broncos having a pass rush this year, they already have 15 sacks on the year, incredible. Also one could argue champ bailey is the best corner in the nfl, not so much, but still a blanket that can take moss right out of the game. along with brian dawkins in the secondary. when brady is under pressure he will not have time to located WR downfield and hit the big plays. As well there will be no third and short consistently because the running game will not work against Denver either who are ranked 5th at rush D. Definiatly my biggest angle on this game is the Broncos new head coach mr. mcdanials. Catch this, Before coming to denver he was the patriots offensive coordinator,ha ha ha, he know this team better than he knows his own team yet. So he has a solid game plan to beat his former team, plus he would like nothing more than to beat his former team. So expect the broncos to come out here focused because because josh mcdaniels will make it very clear to them.
The broncos on the other hand are under rated because they do not have a flashy offense. Well think again, Brandon marshal is now on the same page with the rest of the team, along with eddie royal (um) and brandon stokely. there is a lot of firepower here. The biggest suprise to me this year is the broncos ability to run the ball effectively. Buckhalter may not play, oh well, we can see what moreno can do for this squad, i believe by the end of the year he will be the premier back in denver and will be known among the elite in the league. This is mostly due to IMO one of the leagues best offensive lines. Orton sucks bad, but i do give him credit at making smart decisions. He manages the game and does not get careless, but he has accuracy troubles and can't hit downfield targets. Now with Marshal focused the deep threat is there but it should open up more underneith oppertunitys and help the running game.
The patriots made a big statement against the ravens. The played a very physical game and came out on top. They could be flat here but don't count on it with belicheck at the helm. Brady has only looked good in 1 game so far and the public bought it thinking the pats hit their groove and they should go undefeated the rest of the year like 2 years ago. Wrong this is NOT the same team! They are getting the spread pounded because they are the popular team. Plus, no one believes the Broncos are for real yet giving us an extremely underated team, which the scary part is their getting better each game. They just beat Dallas and the Public is still against them, this is THEIR game to prove to all the media outlets that they are a legit contender
This game is played in Denver. Historically in every sport, Mile high city has proven great home field advantage. Besides the fact that the fans will be extremely excited and loud, the Pats have really struggled here in Denver.
I know i am the minority picking this game.I am loving this game, there is the write-up i promised. I hope this helps you learn something pedro. Good luck to us all
some good info from harry the hat's thread incase you didn't look
PS......Playing Surface
The playing surface at INVESCO Field at Mile High is a 100% natural grass playing field made up of four different Kentucky Bluegrasses. The grass surface is stabilized by a network of polypropylene fibers that were sewn vertically into the sod every 3/4".
Weather for Invesco Field At Mile High, Denver, CO 80204 Sunday...Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of rain and snow. Highs in the mid 40s. Lows in the lower 30s
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ANY Tennesee backers??Comment -
Thanks Kev, trust me, I learn (or at least try to learn) something from all your posts, just keep em coming!!some good info from harry the hat's thread incase you didn't look
PS......Playing Surface
The playing surface at INVESCO Field at Mile High is a 100% natural grass playing field made up of four different Kentucky Bluegrasses. The grass surface is stabilized by a network of polypropylene fibers that were sewn vertically into the sod every 3/4".
Weather for Invesco Field At Mile High, Denver, CO 80204 Sunday...Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of rain and snow. Highs in the mid 40s. Lows in the lower 30sComment -
49ers -2.5 2U
eagles -14.5 1U
I will be putting a 1 unit play on the giants as well. There is a couple things to see beforehand, it may end up being 2 or 3 units.Comment -
ok I am taking the giants for...
Giants -15 2U
Pedro, please let us all know why this is the play and i will add to your analysis.Comment -
Panther -3.5 8U
Colts -2.5 5U
vikes -9.5 7U
cowboys - 8.5 3U
Pit -10.5 3U
Bengals +8.5 10U
Broncos +3 even money 12U
Texans +6 10U
49ers -2.5 2U
eagles -14.5 1U
Giants -15 2UComment -
there is the recap. I feel extremely confident about this week, the best week so far this season. We are up 75.65 units so far this regular season. That being said I stress money management. We are hitting 75%+ and i emphasize that this will not continue, so here is my rules of money management so your bankroll is not jeopardized. The very biggest play you ever make should never exceed 10% of your bankroll. if you follow my unit size accordingly, say you put 12 Units on the broncos = 10%, then a 6 unit play should be 5%. Best luck to us all this weekend
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Thanks for this reminder. It's super important.. and reminds me that I've used almost all of my BR only putting in a fraction on each of the games you put up.there is the recap. I feel extremely confident about this week, the best week so far this season. We are up 75.65 units so far this regular season. That being said I stress money management. We are hitting 75%+ and i emphasize that this will not continue, so here is my rules of money management so your bankroll is not jeopardized. The very biggest play you ever make should never exceed 10% of your bankroll. if you follow my unit size accordingly, say you put 12 Units on the broncos = 10%, then a 6 unit play should be 5%. Best luck to us all this weekend
Although not much of a BR for me to lose..
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couldn't find the breakdown i was discussing with you kev, but i'll try to remember most of what we talked about. Giants D is stuffing the run against their opponents and is locking down most passing attacks. raiders are struggling horribly especially the last two games they've played, haven't been able to run and especially have not been able to pass. Even the raider D, which played the first 2 weeks ok, have been starting to get lit up. On the flip side, the Giants are rolling right now on both sides of the ball. However Eli's foot injury can impact this game in several ways. I can easily see this game going to 21-3 by half time, and I can see the Giants sitting Eli for the rest of the game by the middle of the third. A few long punt/ko returns by Johnny Lee Higins and the raiders might have another FG or two, making it 21-6 or 21-9. Again on the flip side the Giants D line might pin their ears back during the second half and send the house against J-Marcus every down, and we all know how he does against pressure (even against no pressure he is pretty bad). It is very plausible that the Giants D will take a fumble/pick or two back for a score just as well. FOr those reasons I like the GIants to win easily but for the raiders to possibly get a few last minute points. Giants -15 for 2 Units. Kev? And sorry for the late a$$ response, I just got home not too long ago....Comment -
Hi Bettors
Hope you have got enough time for Today's bets on NFL...what's your strategy Today...let's to beat sportsbook...
I supported next team on my bets on 1 half:
Minnesota Vikings -320-(Minnesota needed Favre to carry the offense last week with
Peterson having little luck running against the Packers' new 3-4
defense.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +400-(The Buccaneers have already lost to the other three teams in the
NFC East, but are a bit encouraged after last week's 16-13 loss
at Washington. They had a season-high three sacks and defensive
back Aqib Talib had three interceptions to bring Tampa Bay's
season total to four.)
P.s. Good luck to all...Bet.DelijaWorld.com-Let's to learn new bets strategy...Comment -
thanks pedro
The biggest thing i'm looking at is eli's foot, he should play. Taking that angle I know he won't be expected to do much. In the last 2 games denver and houston ran the ball all over there front 7. Jacobs and bradshaw will rack up huge yardage and manning has too many weapons to be stopped in short yardage situations. On the other side of the ball the raiders running game is there strong suite. Too bad for them they won't have much success against Giants who can sell out against the run. Even worse for the raiders is once they are down 2-3 scores the must get away from the run, at this point we can all laugh at russel's incapable WR and his horribly innacurate throws 200 yards downfield. Do not be suprised like pedro said for pick six or just multiple picks. This game has blowout written all over it, but it is in oakland by 15 pts. hence 2 unit selection. If this game were in NY I wonder how high the spread would have to be for me to lay hard earned money on the raiders. LOL big mismatchComment -
Oakland is playing at New York GiantsComment -
thank you jugs...i mean obama. I was having a brain fart thinking of the Vikings game. But yes you are correct.
Vikings
This game, laying DD on the road fav. is the scary part. The reason i like this game is simple. The war in the trenches. We all know steven jackson is the offense for this team. The only problem here is the front 7 of minnesota will not let him consistently make 1st downs. This will force the rams 30th ranked passing offense to move the chains against an incredible pass rush. With jared allen and co. breathing down bulger's neck all game, he will likely make mistakes that will cost st.louis field position. I just don't see how the rams will get many 1st downs here. AP will have a good game, but the rams have been impressive this year defending the run vs. last year.The only catch, they have not faced a great running back like AP. St. louis is averaging 4 yards per carry defensively, that should be exceeded today with ease. That does not matter if the running game is stopped because favre is really clicking right now, against a bottom ranked passing defense he should have success. The rams are up for a mismatch, the vikings match up to the rams gameplan way to well. The only team that hasn't beaten this squad by 10 pts. was the lowly redskins.Comment -
Texans
First off who are the cardnals to be favored in this game???
The cardinals are a pass happy team. That being said, i don't think they willl run the ball enough to exploit the texans horrendous rushing defense. Arizona is actually ranked dead last in rushing offense, mostly because they have such a high pass/run ratio. The good news for us is that the texans have actually been impressive defending the pass. Kurt warner might be under some pressure because of their crap offensive line but as we've seen lately is a ton of underneath passes and 3 step drops so don't count on many sacks here-houston has only 5 sacks on the year! So with warner moving the chains the texans could be in trouble allowing the cards move down the field with ease, the only thing is the texans 9th ranked passing D could come up with some big stops.
The thing that catches my eye in this matchup is the cards D. At the halfway point last season the cards d really stepped up against the run. their rushing defense is actually very respectable. That should be expected regardless of the defense because the texans have had little success on the ground. Arizona's secondary is garbage. If you have Schuab in fantasy football, play him because he will pick apart this arizona secondary that is allowing 280 yards per game. We should see well over 300 yards in this shootout with all of Houston's weapons.
I never bet over unders but if i was going to, this game would be an over wager. This will be a offensive display, and houston getting 6 pts. is way to many. Houston wins this game outright.Comment -
Bengals
Last week the bengals came out flat. Were they looking ahead to this matchup?
The biggest suprise this year is baltimore's inability to defend the pass. They are ranked 26th against it, unreal! Don't expect many yards on the ground by benson because baltimore's stop unit will put on the clamps. Carson palmer is coming back to form and their offense has been effective thus far against good defenses. expect this to continue.
The ravens should be able to move the ball easily against the bengals horrid D right? wrong, the bengals have been incredibly underated. Nobody believes in them yet even after beating the steelers and packers, Which is a big feat for the big underdog in those matchups. Now the big underdog again against a very solid opponent but 8.5 pts is too many. this game will go down to the wire and cincy's D will come up with a big cover for us here.
My biggest angle in this game is how baltimore poured there hearts into last week and no cigar. They could be flat here. Also they have an easy victory against cincy before traveling to MN so they could be looking ahead to next week.Comment -
up 5U - vig for the noon games. thats fine by me. Now time to win some real moneyComment -
ok. so with vig. we are up 3 units.
I know we were all hoping for better, we were sooooo close on some of those big games. the past is past and we need the future so don't frown, it has been a winning day so far. on any winning day it is good, so root for the colts and the jets and we can turn this into a big day!Comment -
to be exact it is 3.4 units up after vig.Comment -
Thanks for the picks. Good call on the Broncos and Bengals. Thought we did not have a chance in the texans games after the first half but they almost came through.
Do you have a local bookie? If not what site do you use?
Now let's go Colts.Comment -
tango, use as many sites as you can. I use all the a rated sites look under site reviews on sbrComment -
so after the day is said and done, we are up 7.9 units. This is the worst week thus far, but believe me, bieng up 7.9 units is great to anybody's standards. Now we have the Jets for 7 units. we will be up either .9 units or 14.2 units on the week. Congrats to whoever followed me through 5 winning weeks, we are now up 83.55 units on the season through only 5 WEEKS!Comment -
No link. I just click on the Live Odds button at the top of the page and watch the lines during the week. Then I have been posting here. There was a lot of RLM activity this week and for the most part it indicated where the books were baiting people into betting one way. Hou should have covered!! Why they choose to run it on 4th down is confusing to me.
SF line actually got down to a Pick and that was a one to jump on. When you see that much of change in the line (3 points) I advice to jump on the other side.
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No link. I just click on the Live Odds button at the top of the page and watch the lines during the week. Then I have been posting here. There was a lot of RLM activity this week and for the most part it indicated where the books were baiting people into betting one way. Hou should have covered!! Why they choose to run it on 4th down is confusing to me. SF line actually got down to a Pick and that was a one to jump on. When you see that much of change in the line (3 points) I advice to jump on the other side.
very good point GG. Historicaly RLM hits in the 55-60% range. people make a living betting RLM with no handicapping whatsoever and this works in all sports. The fact of rlm is either vegas is "gambling" by trying to get more money on the "losing"team, or else the BIG bets are on the small percentage team and they are trying to even the money on both sides.Comment -
Thanks Kevin. I'm just trying to add to what your already doing here and raise any red flags I see. Hope you don't mind. I don't want to "hi-jack" your thread. I enjoy coming here and reading your thoughts and insight on games. It has helped do quite well this year. On the subject of RLM I hope everyone realizes just because some RLM has happened it does not always mean the other side is the correct play. You still need to know what's going on with each team, situations, etc.. It's just a aide to your handicapping the games. GL tonight and beyond. Go J-E-T-S!!Comment -
GG trust me you are not stepping on my toes, infact i insist that anybody who has usefull info please share with all of us, we are all on the same team after all. Lets beat the books! go jets!
Since we are on the topic of line movement. The money is coming in on the jets and this line has compensated by going to -3. This is normal line movement.
IMO this is an oddsmaker mistake, this line should seriously be closer to a td. B. edwards signed with the jets which is not gonna help us any, it might even be a distraction to the team. Miami will not roll over in this game, the only reason this is not a 10U pick is that miami will be focused here going into a bye and all. I just don't see how the fins will produce much offense in this matchup. on the other hand the Jets will be focused after being embarrased by N.O.Comment -
first picks for next week.
Patriots have 94% off the bat (now 75%)of the public on them right now. This means (unless there is rlm!) that this line will get worse. the titans have a good stop unit. Unfortunatly there are way too many holes in there defense, and the patriots have way too many weapons. Also the patriots have played somewhat mediocre on defense (exceeded my expectations) which is enough to stop the titans lately weak offense. Big mismatch, plus the patriots will be focused after losing last week and they are also at home.
Pats -9 6U
sit back on the chargers, texans and jaguars and watch the public buy us a more lucrative line on these matchupsComment -
2nd pick
What has this broncos team done to be underdogs here again? are you kidding me?
Broncos +4 5U
Lions +14 3UComment -
in fact, i have looked thoroughly at this game. The broncos have so many positive aspects in this game and match up very well because of this i am upping this pick to 10 units. Jump on this early, this line will move against us(without rlm of course)Comment
