NFL season thread

[kevindakota00]

we are adding 3 units to mn

Vikes ML 3u +160

Seahawks +10 8U

raiders + 17 2U

We are gonna sit on that falcons line and grab it at it's peak. It is at +10.5 now, if it hits drops to +10 we will take it right away

[lakerboy]

Why so big on seahawks?

[GGPLAYER]

Liking a lot of your picks this week. Was wondering how you felt about our favorite Underdog Denver? Again it seems like most people feel that the good times are over for them and they will finally lose/not cover. I'm liking
the Broncos again this week. Either way I'm expecting one hell of game.

[DJJimGreen]

so what do we have going on tomorrow? Got a list?

*edit*

By the way, GGPLAYER, I'm on the denver train till they lose.. then they are done.. but why not bet a few bucks until they lose?

[Parligod]

Hey Kev been following your thread and it's very insightful. I like your picks and even some of the losses you've had have often been smart picks. I do wish I checked in on your picks prior to making mine, as I'm sitting on the other side in a couple and now am worried about the selections.
49ers I have at +13 and I picked it up when it looked like Wayne might be limited vs. the 49ers but now he looks more likely to play. Either way P. Manning targets lots of players which is what makes him a great QB. However I do think the Colts record is skewed, as the past 3 thumpings have been vs. sub-pair teams. AZ win was big also, though I combine Colt's good game with some terrible plays by the Cards. Overall I'm just hoping 49ers offense can keep it close enough to cover, and I do like the coaching overall for them this year. We'll see what happens but again I very much respect your insight.

I also wish I checked in on the Seattle +10 pick, it seems like lots of people are split on this game and now I'm regretting picking Dallas at +10. I do think they'll pull out the win, just wondering whether they'll cover. Home edge I give them is higher than other home field advantages, their stadium is pretty insane. If I had the chance I'd just make this game a no-play, as I'm not comfortable enough on either side.

Also on your Jets pick - this was pretty close to a no play for me also. I think both teams are solid, and obviously Miami's been hitting some very good teams sofar. Both sides have lost some defensive players, so we'll see how it impacts the game. The x factor I think is Sanchez and whether he'll be able to take advantage in the passing game, he's had good and bad games so relying on him has some risk, but I agree overall he'll probably have a decent, if not safe, game. Home edge is also nice for Jets, so I'd give them +3 for that alone. Line is now at -3 1/2 for Jets though, which can get tricky. I can see either side winning, but for one of my teasers I picked Miami to add points. In the very least I think the game should be fairly close to the end.
Anyway gl tomorrow everyone. I think this week is very tricky.
-Parli

[kevindakota00]

thanks for you input paligod.

We are taking

Falcons +11 6U

just for fun

Ravens -3.5 0U

[kevindakota00]

I am adding 2 units to the jets

so for a recap...

Colts -11 5U

titans -3 2U

bears -13.5 4U

jets -3 12U

cards -9 6U

vikings +3 8U

Vikes ML 3u +160

Bills +3.5 5U

giants pk 2U

Seahawks +10 8U

raiders + 17 2U

Falcons +11 6U


*just for fun*

Ravens -3.5 0U

[kevindakota00]

oops..

With the jets pick, for record keeping sake. I got them at -3 for ten units. now the line is at -3.5 for two units

Jets -3 10U

jets -3.5 2U

[kevindakota00]

adding lions at -3.5, i know there is rlm.

lions -3.5 2U

[kevindakota00]

i hate teasers, never do em.

Personally, i am taking this one gets both teams to our key number

6.5 pt teaser

Vikings +10 and jets +3

[DJJimGreen]

hahha I somehow slept until just now! Only played big on one game today (bears) and won! Jumping on the viks now, now that I've effectively missed every other game today. =\

[kevindakota00]

week 9

Pats -10 8U

Colts -9 6U

Giants -3.5 4U

[kevindakota00]

ok guys

This is officially our first losing week. We are down 18.2 units this week, i have no excuses, the picks where incorrect. please don't comment, i lost money as well so it is painfull.

That being said our profit was cut to "ONLY" 61.85 units ahead through 8 weeks. This will not happen again. I see some monster plays i will release shortly, this week looks tremendous.

All we can hope for is the falcons to cut our loses this week.

good luck to all

[kevindakota00]

we are expecting the saints to beat the falcons. this game hopefully will be close. anyway, falcons lose, we get a decent line on falcons vs. redskins, we take falcons around 10 pt. favs, any better we pound it. also saints win we get a decent line on panthers, should be around 14 pts., if over 17 we pound it. either way we bet on falcons and against saints next week.


right now we are taking the titans. The 49ers put on a display last week, but they are emotionaly drained and the titans finaly have the spark they needed coming off their bye and winning last week. The pub. is down on the titans, understandably, but this team is ready to play now and they will show up.
To make matters better we got early RLM and hop on this before we get more line movement.

Titans +4 7U

[kevindakota00]

with the falcons win we are up to 66.25 units on the year.

[DJJimGreen]

It's all good Kevin.. any + money is good to me. Give me a second and I'm going to write out my picks I like this week..

[DJJimGreen]

So this is all based just on looking at the lines, but these are the picks that immediately popped out at me.. Let me know what you think.

Bengals and Ravens.. Ravens -3? Seriously? I wanna jump on ravens.

Green Bay vs Bucs .. GB -10 fo sho. Bucs suck.

Chargers vs Giants - Chargers + 4 1/2 ... I think giants have been lame lately.. on this.

Lemme know what you think all.. Take my picks with a grain of salt. I'm at a 50% hit rate lately..

[kevindakota00]

the falcons pick will be thrown out or small, the panthers pick remains a solid selection

[kevindakota00]

i will be playing the bengals as well, we should get a more favorable line later in the week. right now we are taking philly.

Eagles -3 5U

[kevindakota00]

i will do a detailed analysis later, this pick is not nearly as sweet at +2.5

Cards +3 9U

[kevindakota00]

ok. DJJIM


I know you like the pack here. I'll tell you why i do as well

1st-tampa sucks

2nd-Tampa has not effectively gotten consistent pressure on any qb this year. IMO rodgers is one of the qbs that if you give him ample time, he will locate his talented WRs downfield and torch any secondary. (this is why i picked MN big over the pack)

3rd-Tampa is starting their third string qb. Not always a bad thing but i heard from several reliable reports that since getting creamed by NE, the bucs have had a bye week and practiced less than 3 hours through today. Are you kidding me? 2.5 hrs on the week you implement your rookie QB to take over the offense!

4th-Pack should be energized and angry after favre beat them last week, they will be out for blood and tampa's pathetic o-line will make freeman's body feel like brock lesnar's sparring partner.

5th- tampa just sucks


Tampa cannot stop the run or rush the passer. Ryan grant will have success on the ground allowing rodgers to convert third down and manageable also utilize play action and hit jennings and driver downfeild. Tampa has also struggled against much softer defenses, the packers play above average against the pass and the run. This one looks ugly but i hate big favs on the road

Packers -10 6U

[kevindakota00]

Bengals +3 1U

[DJJimGreen]

Thanks for the response! But, I do have to ask.. why Bengals over Ravens? I dunno about thaaat.

ok. DJJIM


I know you like the pack here. I'll tell you why i do as well

1st-tampa sucks

2nd-Tampa has not effectively gotten consistent pressure on any qb this year. IMO rodgers is one of the qbs that if you give him ample time, he will locate his talented WRs downfield and torch any secondary. (this is why i picked MN big over the pack)

3rd-Tampa is starting their third string qb. Not always a bad thing but i heard from several reliable reports that since getting creamed by NE, the bucs have had a bye week and practiced less than 3 hours through today. Are you kidding me? 2.5 hrs on the week you implement your rookie QB to take over the offense!

4th-Pack should be energized and angry after favre beat them last week, they will be out for blood and tampa's pathetic o-line will make freeman's body feel like brock lesnar's sparring partner.

5th- tampa just sucks


Tampa cannot stop the run or rush the passer. Ryan grant will have success on the ground allowing rodgers to convert third down and manageable also utilize play action and hit jennings and driver downfeild. Tampa has also struggled against much softer defenses, the packers play above average against the pass and the run. This one looks ugly but i hate big favs on the road

Packers -10 6U

Bengals +3 1U

[kevindakota00]

alright people. This one is hard to do, i am crossing my fingers that dumb hommy/delhomme will be out for this matchup. IMO he hurts the team and against N.O. This could be disasterous with N.O. defensive T.D. capability. I will break down this game extensively later. Vegas goofed by making this spread so rediculous. Carolina is FAR underated and i will disect later why they will show up BIG here and why the saints will be flat. I will explain why carolina matches up so well on both sides of the ball. Just ask Warner how good this underated secondary is, ask how peppers broke out of his shell now, ask the #1 ranked rushing D why they allowed 270 yards on the ground. I cant decide if i want to put this wager on the spread or split with ML. I will let you know the unit amount shortly

[kevindakota00]

with 96% on the falcons we have to take em now. I'm not liking this as much as before, i was also hoping for less than 9.

Falcons -10 2U

[kevindakota00]

panthers +14 12U

[GGPLAYER]

alright people. This one is hard to do, i am crossing my fingers that dumb hommy/delhomme will be out for this matchup. IMO he hurts the team and against N.O. This could be disasterous with N.O. defensive T.D. capability. I will break down this game extensively later. Vegas goofed by making this spread so rediculous. Carolina is FAR underated and i will disect later why they will show up BIG here and why the saints will be flat. I will explain why carolina matches up so well on both sides of the ball. Just ask Warner how good this underated secondary is, ask how peppers broke out of his shell now, ask the #1 ranked rushing D why they allowed 270 yards on the ground. I cant decide if i want to put this wager on the spread or split with ML. I will let you know the unit amount shortly

This game is showing signs of RLM too. Still a little early and I need to see more bets made but so far according to Bet Tracker 72% of the action is on NO and the line has moved from -14.5 to -13.5.

It's a go for me on Tenn as well. Huge RLM movement with 72% of the bets on SF and the line moved a full point and a half. -5.5 to -4.

DJJim.....I would advise betting against the Giants this weekend. SD is not a good team defending the run and the G-Men are going to get back to basics this weekend.

[DarkNite]

Hi, Kevin:
I do like your picks. Below is the one I like:
CIN +3.5
ATL -10.5
GB -11.5
HOU +9.5
MIA +10.5
SEA -10.5
SD +4.5
TEN +5.5
NO -14.5 // I take the differences between Warner and Brees, last week CAR came up lucky with many interceptions.
As for DAL/PHI will be very very close game.
Thank you for your weekly picks.

[kevindakota00]

panthers

The panthers have really struggled this year. Mostly due to turnovers and early deposits. last week they had a HUGE upset and this brings fire to this team. Remember back to last year, carolina was one of the premier teams. They finally got back to their game plan which is to stick with the run. I see no reason they won't stay within a td if not win outright. This is a classic match of overated vs. underated. The only reason carolina is underated is their awfull start.

First off. The panthers ran for 270 yards last week. This is very impressive because the cards were actually ranked #1 at the time. Hommy didn't throw any picks. Well the saints have been good against the run this year right? well they are ranked #11 yards per game, but that stat is obscure because they have had early leads so their opponents have abandoned the run. They are actually ranked 23rd in yards per attempt.remember the game last week, turner ran for 150 yards! And to add to this argument, both of the DT are injured. This will be a monster day for williams and stewart.
Brees is far overated, he has one of the best O-lines in front of him and so many weapons at his disposal. He will not be stopped but he will have trouble against carolina's #1 ranked passing D. To add to this Julious Peppers finally broke out of his shell and he was a beast last week, i don't expect the same productivity from him but he should be able to force brees into hurried throws, and remember kurt warner threw five picks last week. Carolina has been awfull defending the run this year but as of late they have been mediocre. I expect brees to be asked to convert third downs, we will get some stops. To add to this argument that carolina will keep it close, The panthers (jon fox is copming to his senses) will run the ball early and often, as well the saints best attack against this team is the run, will chew up a lot of clock and this game plan actually favors carolina who IMO has a much more effective running game. Also the saints by far lead their respective division, they also beat their rival last week.This game means much more to carolina than it does to the saints. +14 is a gift this is my play of the month.

[DarkNite]

Kev. I will go with you on CAR, ATL, ARZ, PHI. They are the same as Riggs'.
Wish you good luck this weekend!

[kevindakota00]

dark nite please enlighten us on his reasoning, sorry i don't look around at other threads.

[kevindakota00]

seahawks -10 2U

[Cris_from_Europe]

Since you don't look around other threads, I would like to know your opinion regarding the 7 point teaser parlay I'm playing this Sunday:

Green Bay Packers - 2.5
Houston Texans + 16
Carolina Panthers + 20
Seattle Seahawks - 3

I really appreciate your feedback on this matter. Good luck to all of us on Sunday.

[kevindakota00]

if you truly want my opinion, bet them seperately. Reason being, if you think you need the extra pts. to win your bet, you should just pass on them anyway. I believe the texans easily could lose by 16, otherwise i like the rest.

[PedroNorth]

U got a final recap for the week, Kev? Thanks!