Official Picks?
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anything that isnt a lean gets counted, i didnt bet them all today because i dont see a lot in terms of 'value'.Originally posted by Dfjay9
But I personally like Oakland, Philly, Bears,and the Aints.Comment -
LOL check the scores and in the hole in 3 games already....Comment -
5-1 in early games (since it won I am counting Denver LOL)
If you told me Raiders would score 20 I would have really thought they cover a Dd spread. Too bad Baltimore wanted to stroke their ego today.Comment -
system playing well so farComment -
Originally posted by darkhat
30-12 ATS and 12-10 on MLs dogs, I would say it has done pretty well. MLs weighted would be plus +12.75.Comment -
fabulous stuff....
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1-1 afternoon games. 6-2 on the day.
Bears might be a push play for me, dont make them very often but weather is a nightmare there, and the only way to do really well in the NFL is to bet too much. But then again I have been doing that all season so nothing new I guess, except I havent loaded up on a late game with all my winnings from earlier in the day.Comment -
Oh and as an aside, Buffalo and the Rams shared the same number and were technically leans but since there were already 10 plays I didnt list them. Guess I should have stuck with the original plan of just posting up games that qualified rather than orrying about how many games it spit out.Comment -
nice day wanti...but didn't you lose Oak, Philly, and Giants?Comment -
Giants was a lean I didnt bet it. I bet Oak, Philly, TB (not as much as I should since I played some SD ML), Saints and I already had Minn and Tenn in, forgot about that til I called in...Originally posted by broadway6
MLs saved me thats for sure since Philly was an embarrassment.
So pushing it isnt a huge amount since I personally didnt do as well as the system did.Comment -
i'm an idiot... i didn't see the lean next to them
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What's the final word on tonight's game?Comment -
still KC plus points, might get 13Originally posted by PorterhouseComment -
Thanks! Got em +12Comment -
Wow Wantitall's record is up there with colin cowherd. Not bad! I wonder what secret stats want used in his system.Comment -
32-12 ATS, I dont watch ESPN if Cowherd has that good of a record he probably has someone helping him or he has a lucky coin.Originally posted by brumbies
I 'technically' only lost one game ATS yesterday with Oakland. I took Bears and Philly both on the ML, and I said that would probably be the best option with the lines the way they were, but for record keeping purposes I will call them ATS losses so that would make the record (non technically) 32-14.
I said from the beginning I wouldnt be messing with particulars to make it look better or wore than it is. It picks sides then I give commentary on how to approach them depending on lines and odds.
End of the season I will go back and double check everything and see how it did, but so far I am fairly sure that 32-14 is the accurate ATS count for most people. ML plays would be either 13-12 or 13-10 depending on how you played those small lined games.Comment -
Thanks for the W!Comment -
i just saw your thread for the first time..really wished i would have seen it at the beginning...good luck to you this week..i think your system is awesome...i enkjoy doing systems myself its good to see someone that has successComment -
OK brace yourselves... It literally has an opinion on every game this week. But its that time of year when there is a lot of data and the numbers are coming together, so I expected there to be more plays, just didnt figure it to be the whole board, literally.
Buff Whatever best option is,
Cinci minus best (lean)
Jax plus best (lean) solid lean but only 4 games to go by those 4 are 3-1 for jax.
Rams minus best
Dallas minus best
Car plus best
Car ML (solid lean)
Atl minus best
Det plus best
Det ML
Phi ML
Phi plus best (lean) only bet if its good vig ML should be enough
Oak plus best
Oak ML
Den minus best
Indy (solid lean)
Indy ML (lean)
Pitt minus best
SF (lean)
Get whatever the best option is on Buff, could be ML - points if line is vigged to death, could even be a positive ML if people hammer Mia.
I suspect Rams will be painted -3 all week, as usual dont pay more than -115 for it.
Dallas lots of points to lay with them it might move but not enough to make a difference.
Car here we go, system picked against them last week and system came through, this week it picks them and it picks them to win SU, we have had our share of issues with them on the ML but TB isnt all that despite them winning 3 in a row. Car could easily be 6-3 right now instead of 2-7, they have just been on the bad side of some horrible beats. Thats why the system loves then theyre better than most teams they play, they got picked against last week because Denver has turned into a top tier team. But you get what you pay for with Car. Tim tebow on this team theyre 6-3 no question, but the mental case they have now youre 2-7, although he cant really be blamed for the Atl loss, that one was on the defense.
Speaking of ATL, never like laying DD, but DD favs have been money this year, so no worries there.
Det it likes them to win so you play the ML, since theyre also at least a FG dog you have to take the 3 as well as insurance.
Phi picks them SU so the ML is the play, having them on the spread as a lean might not seem to make sense but I suspect the spread will be a joke with vig, so just hope they win and call it a day.
Oak theyre good at home and getting points. I suspect they win SU too but you gt what you pay for with them as well. I would suggest waiting as I think New Orleans will be a pretty big play all the way and youll get the best odds on Oak 15-20 mins before kick off. But watch the odds in case some tout gets fancy and gives Oak out as his play of the century.
Den system has pegged them as a top team 8.5 is a lot of points, I suspect SD to get some backing, I doubt it will ever gets back to Den -7 but you can hope.
Indy would have been a very strong play a couple weeks ago, as its number was 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU, but the past 2 weeks the number it got has been 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS. still a solid 6-3 Su (most of them dogs) ad 7-2 ATS, but since the further the system goes the better the numbers get it might be sensing a switch in that number. Also the thing picked the board so it might be a good game to pass on. But on the numbers it is still a solid lean.
Pitt watch the odds and vig here, another game lined 3, but this one actually has a chance to end in a 3 pt differential. I will throw an interesting trend out there however but take it for what its worth, teams that score 42 or more points their previous game and are a road dog in their next game are 19-39 SU but 28-28-2 ATS. As a 3.5 or less dog theyre 10-21 SU and 16-13-2 ATS. Obviously not system care but Balt is in a semi unique situation.
SF, they should really be a dog in this game, so thats why theyre a lean, only reason theyre a lean at all is because they are picked SU.Comment -
Holy crap! Bet the board!Comment -
What about the fact PIT will be without Big Ben?Comment -
can anyone briefly explain how this system works? i am confused by 'best' and 'lean.' im guessing wantitall is using some kind of proprietary system, are thread followers just tailing or is there some formula you need to follow? thanks.Comment -
Originally posted by djmano
no formula given, a lean is a game that has a set of numbers that game falls into not a specific number. it has a 60-65% chance of landing. a non lean game is a game that has a specific number that has come up and has a track record of winning (better than 65%). I wasnt going to keep records but I started to because I was getting lot of leans so I wanted ot throw the numbers out there for people to decide for themselves.
best just means find the best number. I dont get into who got what, it gives a side you decide what to do if the line moves. There have been 2 games that were effected which is actually a lot, but the 'good' numbers were available for plenty of time so getting them shouldnt have been an issue anyway. its not like that one winning number was there for a split second and then gone again.
I started this thread basically to show that the NFL isnt that hard to beat, but it still doesnt mean it is a good bet.
EDIT: for example this week Phil/Wash game is Wash -3.5 system number. Doesnt matter what that number means, it is a number it generates. Games that have had that number this year are....TB/Dal wk3 TB covered; Sea/Rams wk 4 Rams SU/covered; Min/Det wk 4 Det SU/covered; Cle/NYG wk5 NYG Su/covered (loss); Det/Phil wk 6 Det SU/cover; Oak/KC wk 8 Oak SU/cover; Car/Was wk 9 Car SU/cover; Pitt/NYG wk 9 Pit SU/cover.
So therefore Phil has a number that is 8-1 both ATS and ML, every one was a dog, they all won outright except Cle.
so a -3.5 number is bet the dog, which is in most cases also the road team, only team that was a dog and not on road was Rams, but I am pretty sure I commented on that game that week.Comment -
Originally posted by djmano
a good example of a "lean" game is Cinci. Theyre in a game that the home team is +4. Well there arent a lot of those specific numbers. But there are a lot of games given +4 to +2or less...
SF/Minn wk 3; Hou/Den Wk 3; Cin/Jax Wk5; Dal/Car wk7; Jax/Oak Wk7; SD/Cle wk8; SF/AZ wk 8; Indy at Jax wk 9 TB/Oak wk9; den/car week 10. That is one where it started to switch. It was calling for home teams to cover, which they did but then it flipped and the road teams started to cover, (with the exception of SD) so there is a pattern with that set of numbers, so it fits for cinci. road teams have covered 8 of 10. But not for the exact number just within a small subset.Comment -
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but the leans are bet them with caution?Originally posted by wantitall4moiComment -
sort of, I have only bet a few leans myself. But they are strong enough to make a note of. If anything to make people aware of maybe betting against them. Which is to say I may not bet ON a lean but I surely wont bet against one even if I personally like the side. I cited a few of them already this year. Patriots and Jets a couple weeks ago most recent, I figured Pats would win by 3 TDs, Jets were a solid lean, Jets covered the 11 easily and almost won SU.Originally posted by franklee168Comment -
thanks for bolding the leans, wanti. So, now my dumb ass can see it
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Shouldn't we bet the other side instead? Regression to the mean?Originally posted by wantitall4moiComment -
you listen to too many math guys, when there is no way to determine what a mean is there is no way to determine if something should regress to it.Originally posted by brumbies
Sports isnt dice or cards, or flipping a coin, or something with known fixed odds. every game is independent and adds to any so called percentages people want to try and make up on the 'chances' of something happening.Comment -
Cool thread keep it up. Been popping in from time to time this one quickly became a favorite. Also appreciate the general tips/recommendations on picking MLs or spreads as things like this are valuable to less experienced cappers (myself included). Any tips as to when to place the picks vs. waiting til game time? Your recommendation to wait on Oakland, for example, makes a lot of sense. I'd like to be able to do that more on my own in the future but am not sure what exactly to go off of.Comment -
Obviously Pitt is now plus best, ML (lean) now as well. Yeah I know rothlesburger isnt playing, system doesnt take that stuff into account. Besides his value is drastically over rated as is Baltimores ability to win on the road.Comment -
testComment -
one , two , three .... one , two , three , fourComment -
this is going to be very interesting with this many optionsComment
