So I broke out the old system

[wantitall4moi]

Of course we are grading these as winners when they could've pushed or lost.

Of course we get credit for the leans because they won, but if they'd all lost then they were 'just leans'.

If you always give yourself "the best line", it is impossible to lose. Go through SBR odds this season and pretend you bet every dog at 'the best line', then calculate your profits. Then go through again and pretend you bet every favorite 'at the best line', then calculate your profits. Amazing! They're both positive!

How about posting some spreads with your picks?

grade them against ANY number theyre still profitable, even in a year with a few games where line moves actually mattered. I grade them against numbers just about anyone should have gotten. If I graded them against best available you could add probably 3 wins and lose one of the pushes.

Its funny how two losers who retired form posting here are suddenly back posting and one made a post here and the other gave points for it.

dejected wannabes who failed in the public spot light and tucked their tails and ran. Or made a 'retirement' post that got buried. Same difference. Guys like you are why forums are the way they are now. No real information or sharing of anything because guys like you all want to try and highlight something that doesnt matter one bit in the long run.

In 133 opinions in just 8 weeks, a few weeks it played the board. 41 MLs (13 or 14 of them on DD dogs) and 92 ATS sides. It has amassed an ATS record of 56-34-2, against worst available I would say it would still be 53-38-1 and that would be going out of your way to find the worst line ever posted on any game it picked. Of the 41 MLs it is 18-23 and considering how many +300 and more dogs it has picked that won that is more than profitable as well.

Go play your 'what line did you get' bullshit for people that are total losers and worry about that shit. This thread is for guys who are actually making money this year.

[No coincidences]

I watched it I didnt read a stats sheet. Bears controlled that game for 59 minutes 30 seconds. Total melt down that last drive and unreal bullshit defense, that we have all seen a million times.

The fact bears got the ball and scored in about 3 seconds proved they were the better team. Sea scored a TD in OT to stop Bears from getting the ball, had bears gotten a chance i have no doubt they get their own TD, but it aint college and thats the way it goes. No excuses. Bears lost a game they had in the bank.

I watched the game too and I'm not sure where you're getting that, but to each his own.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i agree with mathy. if you are gonna post records, you should post numbers "you" got. how can you grade something that has no numerical value?

anyway, keep up the good work...

[wantitall4moi]

i agree with mathy. if you are gonna post records, you should post numbers "you" got. how can you grade something that has no numerical value?

anyway, keep up the good work...

tout and loser bullshit mentality.

RAS has one of the best verifiable long term records going, but everyone busts his balls because he actually has enough clients where the line will move on them, so they sometimes get hurt. So it becomes the 'what line did you get' game.

At most there have been 5 games, 4 I think actually where a line actually made a difference in the games I have listed,and thats using every frigging game some weeks. i didnt grade a single one against best available. If i had I wouldnt have 2 pushes I can tell you that.

I put up teams that the system says will win, it is up to the guys betting to find the best number they can. I am not a tout I dont need to sell anything. I also know not everyone is betting every game I list. Nor should they. So I am sure some guys are out performing the results I have taken the time to keep track of.

The system is doing exactly what I said it would, it is going to have extremely good weeks or extremely bad weeks, and that has been the case. I have put up plays 9 weeks. 6 very good weeks, 2 very bad weeks, and 1 'average' type week. In fact in the two very bad weeks account for just about all the losses the system has seen. Which again, I said would happen. Flip those two weeks around and the system is over 80%, but you obviously cant do that. But it shows it isnt a 'coin flip' system where you get lucky or you dont and maybe hit 53.5% or something and claim you can win long term because youre above the break even mark. It is either very right or very wrong. Which shows one thing that most guys cant...consistency.

Thats the funny thing, this is a system based on numbers, and all I do is bash math guys for being dumb, but then I use a math based system any of these guys should find remedial and easy to figure out yet none of them have. Or maybe theirs is just 'better' and they dont post it. But I keep my math simple, which is the key. Which once again is something I also said when I started this thing out.

[mathdotcom]

The point is that two books can offer lines that differ but offer the same EV.

Did you take Raiders +2.5 +103 or did you take Raiders +3 -125? Which is the best line? I don't know off the top of my head but suppose Raiders +2.5 +120 was available, then that is clearly the best line but you would've lost.

So how about posting a spread that's widely available at the time you post the play? Why does it bother you to do that?

[wantitall4moi]

The point is that two books can offer lines that differ but offer the same EV.

Did you take Raiders +2.5 +103 or did you take Raiders +3 -125? Which is the best line? I don't know off the top of my head but suppose Raiders +2.5 +120 was available, then that is clearly the best line but you would've lost.

So how about posting a spread that's widely available at the time you post the play? Why does it bother you to do that?

I graded raider as loss so if you cant figure that out then I dont know what to tell you.

[wantitall4moi]

Thats why I say best line, it is sometimes discretionary for a lot of people, some guys might buy on and off that shit all the time I dont know I am not their tour guide. If guys dont know how to gamble by now then nothing anyone can do will help.

[mathdotcom]

Thats why I say best line, it is sometimes discretionary for a lot of people, some guys might buy on and off that shit all the time I dont know I am not their tour guide. If guys dont know how to gamble by now then nothing anyone can do will help.

You are grading your own plays not theirs, so why not post the numbers you got?

[wantitall4moi]

You are grading your own plays not theirs, so why not post the numbers you got?

I am not going to do the whole what number are you 'grading' them at nonsense I am not a tout. I will post a team its up to you to get the best number you can.


thats what I wrote in the first post of this topic.




I'll have the sides for next weeks games pretty soon, like I said I dont mess with worrying about the number, just get the best one you can, which is obvious.

This is the old prison system I made up while spending some time under the care of our friendly U.S. Govt. It won me a lot of money in there that's for sure. I track it here and there but figured I would see what it does all year this year for shits and giggles.

I am not betting every game it spits out, thats why I dont post it. Because I dont like posting stuff I dont bet myself. But this has had a lot of disclaimers associated with it. But I bet them all today except Houston because I wanted the ML but it never got to a decent number. Makes me a loser tough since it looks like theyre easy winner regardless.


Second comment I made in the thread.

Those pretty much say it all.

If it was doing dogshit you wouldnt be worried about it, but since it is doing well there has to be someway to discount it, thats how it always goes.

There is another post I made about how I posted over a thousand, probably closer to 1500 plays at Covers over a two year span in all sports and was hitting over 60% including MLs. But idiots too worried about lines or where a line was and how someone got it ruined that so I stopped posting plays altogether.

Like I said this is for gamblers if you want to use it as a test for actuaries be my guest.

[JohnPickensU]

We(fans of making money over the long haul) appreciate all your work this season. Its not a 1 week flip em and pick em style system.

Its showed a good run that i have followed all season.

Thanks and keep it up!

[mathdotcom]

wanti I'd love to follow you but I have no idea what number to look for

I laid off on Raiders because I didn't know whether to take 2.5 or 3.

Can you help me next week with the actual spreads? Is it that hard? After all, if you're actually betting your plays, you could just share what spreads you took.

[CanuckG]

NEWSFLASH: 99.4% of people posting plays here aren't even betting themselves

[mcduggly]

NEWSFLASH: 99.4% of people posting plays here aren't even betting themselves

Ehhh I doubt that, but I do agree some on here don't. What's the point of posting plays if you aren't involved in the industry? Doesn't make sense and sounds like a waste of time. I couldn't see myself posting in a fishing forum if I wasn't a fisherman.

[wantitall4moi]

NEWSFLASH: 99.4% of people posting plays here aren't even betting themselves

LOL that needed a newsflash?

I am as straightforward as they come. I dont have to make shit up, even though people think I do. I said from the start I wasnt betting all these games, who would? It picks the board a lot these days. Could you? Sure, would be profitable too obviously. if you discount the ML leans which were all pretty much double digit roads dogs then the system is pretty good. but even counting them MLs still shows a profit.

But to do this you have to practice blind faith which no one has. Nor should they.


But I broke down how I did it and gave some insight into specifics a few times. Thats more than I was going to do.

Just know that if a game is posted even as a lean, it has, up til that point, had at least a 65% success rate in its subset. A game not a lean is at least 60% for that specific number.

Like I said that is why this past week some of those games ended up being leans because of the bad two weeks skewing the results.

[hrgonz0]

It doesn't matter to me whether you post the lines or not. I know that your games are posted on Tuesday/Weds each week and I can compare those lines against the game day lines and decide whether I still want to play a particular game or not. I don't care about your record either, I only care about my record. Keep posting the plays however you see fit.

[GGPLAYER]

I watched it I didnt read a stats sheet. Bears controlled that game for 59 minutes 30 seconds. Total melt down that last drive and unreal bullshit defense, that we have all seen a million times.

The fact bears got the ball and scored in about 3 seconds proved they were the better team. Sea scored a TD in OT to stop Bears from getting the ball, had bears gotten a chance i have no doubt they get their own TD, but it aint college and thats the way it goes. No excuses. Bears lost a game they had in the bank.

How about Det!!!!!!!!!!!!! That team is inventing ways to screw me this year! Oak and Philly are a close 2nd.

[wantitall4moi]

Day late got side tracked talking about the Lakers yesterday....

Oak plus best (lean)

Cin minus best
Buff minus best
Phi plus best
Atl minus best (lean)
Jax plus best
Jax ML
Min plus best
Minn ML (lean)
SD plus best
SD ML (lean)
Cle minus best
Was best available either ML or spread
Det plus best
N.O. plus best
Hou plus best
Hou ML (lean)



Basically had opinions on the whole board again this week, as it probably will going forward.

Lines have already moved on a few of those games so as usual use discretion.

*strongest numbers are on Jacksonville, San Diego, Det, and New Orleans. Bad spot since I think 3 of those teams have quit this season. But its what the system says so I just post the results.

[smoke a bowl]

Day late got side tracked talking about the Lakers yesterday....

Oak plus best (lean)

Cin minus best
Buff minus best
Phi plus best
Atl minus best (lean)
Jax plus best
Jax ML
Min plus best
Minn ML (lean)
SD plus best
SD ML (lean)
Cle minus best
Was best available either ML or spread
Det plus best
N.O. plus best
Hou plus best
Hou ML (lean)



Basically had opinions on the whole board again this week, as it probably will going forward.

Lines have already moved on a few of those games so as usual use discretion.

*strongest numbers are on Jacksonville, San Diego, Det, and New Orleans. Bad spot since I think 3 of those teams have quit this season. But its what the system says so I just post the results.

I don't buy the teams quitting bullshit. Those guys are fighting for jobs at least. Everyone thought Philly quit last year at 4-8 only to win their last 4. I love betting the teams that the market thinks has quit at the end of the year, usually a pretty good money maker.

[wantitall4moi]

I don't buy the teams quitting bullshit. Those guys are fighting for jobs at least. Everyone thought Philly quit last year at 4-8 only to win their last 4. I love betting the teams that the market thinks has quit at the end of the year, usually a pretty good money maker.

San diego has most definitely quit. Det maybe not, but swartz is a complete idiot and hard to bet on him, he cost me a lot of money this year. Jags maybe not but they just arent good.

Not dissing my own system just putting it out there.

[mathdotcom]

Day late got side tracked talking about the Lakers yesterday....
Cin minus best -3
Buff minus best -3
Phi plus best +7.5
Jax plus best +2.5
Jax ML +130
Min plus best +2.5
SD plus best There's not even a line out yet Cle minus best -6.5
Was best available either ML or spread -2.5
Det plus best +6.5
N.O. plus best +5
Hou plus best +3.5

Hope you don't mind

[darkhat]

[wantitall4moi]

Not a ton of moves just Vig changes in most of them. Its that time of year and books get on these games and hold them at 2.5/3/3.5 and let people pay extra for whatever theory they have on what is a 'better' approach. You know my stance dont pay more than -115 at any reduced book or -120 at any book that has -110 lines.


Wash is the one that has seen the biggest change, was basically PK -108 early, now ML around -130 or so.
New Orleans has gone from 6 to 4.5.
Houston gone from 5 to 3.5

[wantitall4moi]

Was ML tanking, now down to -119, but -1 -110 is 'better' option. But as with the other lines/vigs that is discretionary.

[darkhat]

thanks wanti

bet board has strong day again

[face]

glad your system also likes bills

[wantitall4moi]

glad your system also likes bills

horrid beat there.

Updated results after early games

ATS 45-30-2
ATS leans 16-9
MLs 14-12
ML leans 6-12

Weird week as it was 'average' at least so far, not great not horrible. Only second time this year that has happened. Obviously if it wins out or loses out that effects that somewhat.

[yisman]

looks like a pretty good week to me

[mathdotcom]

3-6 with MNF pending

[yisman]

PHI/MIN/WAS/SD

that's 4

[TheLock]

notsogoodatmathdotcom

[mathdotcom]

Whoops, missed Cle and Wash. 5-6.

[wantitall4moi]

YUP but there was fair warning on the teams that lost. I said point blank that some of those teams have quit. Ironically the one I knew for sure had quit was the one that won. Guess those idiots like pulling Norv Turners ass out of the fire.

Its a system I just post the numbers, I did bet Jacksonville though out of those 4 and they got pasted by the Jets, so even cherry picking was a loser. I wouldnt have bet San Diego, Det or New Orleans (especially with the weather) with stolen money yesterday.

I bet 4 games Jax and ML, Buffalo, Minnesota, and Washington. Got a lucky win and a bad beat so that evened out. I will also be playing Houston ML and spread tonight. If that wins I win, same as the system. If it loses it is a losing week, just like the system will have.

EDIT, and I had Cle -4.5 and KC +7.5, but I dont count shit like that because it was a total free roll.

[wantitall4moi]

Well it started out having some potential but lost out the last 3 games. so ended up being a negative week, not horrible but still a loser.

Cinci minus best
Chi plus best
Chi ML
NYG (lean)
Car(lean)
TB (lean)
Pitt(lean)
Det (lean)
Min ML
Min plus best
Sea minus best
KC ML
Indy plus best
Jets (lean)


This week has a lot of shared numbers so some will be dependent upon some outcomes. Cinci/Phi; Sea/Buff; Jets/Tenn all share the same number. The times that number has come up this year every team was a road favorite. So that gives us Cinci and Sea for right now. Will Jets be favored by Monday? Maybe, but is betting the road team the 'right' play? Probably.

NYG/ATL; Car/SD; TB/NO; Pitt/Dal; Det/AZ Also share the same number. The same number that Hou/NE had last night, but also the same number Cle/Oak; Cin/SD; AZ/Jets shared two weeks ago, and many teams have shared going back a few weeks. The predominant results are still road teams with that number despite what happened last night. But basically only good enough for a lean 'grade'. I will try to look for another pattern in them going back a few more weeks but for now the teams listed are leans at best, will update if I find anything relevant.

Anyway because so many numbers are shared it picks the board again basically.

Updated records:

ATS 45-33-2
ATS leans 16-9
MLs 14-12
ML leans 6-13.

[mathdotcom]

If you have no faith to even bet your own system, why do you bother sharing it with us?

Also, what determines whether you take a team on moneyline vs. just the spread?

Trying to learn

[mathdotcom]

Cinci minus best, -3.5
Chi plus best, +2.5
Chi ML, +130
Min ML, +125
Min plus best. +3
Sea minus best -5.5
KC ML, +135
Indy plus best +7.5

Excited for another week of The System