So I broke out the old system

[GGPLAYER]

Det couldnt hold on and then the late FG made it even worse. So a bad day became horrible.

Early games...

ATS 0-4 (Car pending)
ML 0-2
ATS leans 2-0
ML lean pending

Brutal beats on the Car and Det games. Square betters rejoice. I loved my card at about 12:50 this morning. Now not so much. Oakland was a big let down too.

[wantitall4moi]

The beat goes on, its either very very good, or you get resulats like today, there are no in betweens.

I think the next time it picks the board I will fade it LOL. If I had done that the two times it has done it the rsults would have been unreal.

SF is still a lean, but obviously after the carnage use your judgement.

will run the number for next week later today and tally up everything that happened.

Positive note it generally does well after a bad week, well it does well most of the time but these horrendous weeks get thrown in.

But basically two bad beats it what destroyed us. I can live with Philly getting blown out, and Dallas, but having Det not only lose the lead late to lose SU, but to be forced to go for 4-15 and then gift GB a late FG to lose the cover as well was bad. Then yet ANOTHER carolina double digit lead pissed away AND a 2 pt conversion, and then to lose SU in OT, that is almost as bad as how they lost to Atlanta. Just incredibly brutal, I am sure actual fans of this team want to commit suicide after the way this team has lost, no wonder Cam Newton is a basket case. Losses like that are 100% coaching, there have just been way too many of them to be player made mistakes at this point.

OK rant over, will post up the results later, busy week as people come in for Thanksgiving, the compound is hosting the events this year, so lucky me.

[wantitall4moi]

Only did the Thanksgiving games so far, too many kids and in laws running around.

Dallas minus best
Jets plus best (lean)
Det ML (lean)
Det Plus best

[broadway6]

Get that money, wanti.

[wantitall4moi]

OK finally got to finish of the week....

Updated thru today not counting Jets lean...

ATS 31-20-1
ATS (Leans) 12-5
ML 10-10
ML (Leans) 2-11


Mia ML
Mia plus best
MIN depending on line ML but theyre the side
Den minus best
Indy minus best
Tenn minus best (Lean)
Cle ML or spread depending
Rams same as above
Saints
Packers
Chargers
Eagle ML(picked against Carolina)

A lot of games at or around a PK again this week. So therefore watch how MLs look compared to any spreads they might throw up on them. So basically, Vikings, Rams, Chargers, Eagles, Packers, Saints, and Browns.

So basically seven games you pick the winner you win, which is generally how it always is but now youre not getting much for it.

[wantitall4moi]

Not a ton of changes

Vikings get +7 if you can but dont over pay for it.
Viking ML (Lean) +225 or better should be found

Indy going to be painted -3 I guess, so get the best vig you can. Or if you can get -135 or better on the ML that might be the best option.

Denver going to stay -10 so thats what we have to take I guess.

Cle +2 or plus 120 or better ML. +120 is probably better option, discretion call.

Rams dipped a little, +115 was a good number on them, if it gets there again I would grab it. Sitting at +1 and +110 now, but theyre dropping.

Saints rising so might want to stick it out they might hit +120, and +2 so another discretionary play there.

Packers all over the place up to +150, down to +125, and theyre still dropping but its a late game, so take the 2.5 if the ML sucks. 2.5 is almost a wasted number but its still 'better' than +120.

Chargers basically still a pk em, not a lot of movement in this game at all. but all things considered +1 -110 is 'better' than PK -105. which is available at a few places. But if you believe in the "pinny lean" then theyre begging for Charger money right now, which makes Ravens the play. But the system doesnt care about that, but just as a heads up.

everything else is pretty much the same as listed.

[SlickRick1382]

Without looking at pinny yet, I would of assumed they were begging for Ravens money giving this game basically at pickem / -1. Especially when 60%+ of the public is on the Ravens....

[GGPLAYER]

I'm so sick of getting beat late in games. Balt 4th and forever makes the first and sends the game into OT for the win. Every week there is one or two of these that happen. Bye bye Norv.....you suck!

[wantitall4moi]

I'm so sick of getting beat late in games. Balt 4th and forever makes the first and sends the game into OT for the win. Every week there is one or two of these that happen. Bye bye Norv.....you suck!

yup, other than carolina the system has avoided most, but last week and this week it got stung by a handful of them.

marginally profitable or break even type day depending on if you took spreads or ML and if you bet every game. SD loss makes it a lot worse than it 'should' have been.

One note, that Baltimore win actually favored carolina as they shared the exact same number and it tipped the results slightly towards them again, so even when the system picks against carolina it finds a way to put some sort of focus on them.

So now tonight's game is a pass.

But if you absolutely HAVE to bet it because youre a degenerate the smallest of leans would be on car, but from a non system point of view youre going to have to bet a team on the road as a favorite which has invented new ways of getting beat SU this season.

Updated record:

ATS 35-25-1
ATS leans 12-7
ML 13-10
ML leans 2-11

[wantitall4moi]

Got numbers done on time this week....

Atl minus best
Hou minus best (lean)
Jax plus best(lean)
Ind plus best (lean)
Indy ML (lean)
KC ML (lean)
KC plus best
Az plus best (lean)
Rams ML
Rams plus best
GB minus best
Bears minus best
TB plus best
TB ML (lean)
SD best line ML or spread
Oak best line ML or Spread
Phi plus best

Lots of leans, mostly because of that bad week, it added some bad results, before that they would have been solid, but as more numbers get put in the numbers are supposed to get 'better'. Case in point was last night, originally numbers were on Phi but 2 results Sunday switched it slightly to Car and Car ended up being the right side.

For guys that like 'strength' then Rams SU (obviously cover the number also) and Atlanta are the strongest numbers.

[Parligod]

I worry betting against the 49ers right now. Rams did surprisingly well against them though. GL this week.

[wantitall4moi]

A few things have changed most notably the KC game where the guy killed himself and his girlfriend, not in that order. That is obviously a discretionary pick now. But you are getting 5 and more than likely 6 maybe even 7 now.

Also Hou went from 4.5 to 7. Too late to take them now if you havent already gotten them. Will still at least push on 7 90% of the time if they cover 4.5 but cant take 7 when 4.5 was available like it was. But since it was a lean to start with ....

Rams are all over the place, don't play the +9 minus big vig these books throw out there now. Not sure if they do it thinking saps will believe a team can win by 9 in OT now or not (which they cant obviously), but they have done it a lot this year for some reason, where a game is +7.5 at a lot of places many hand a +9 with huge vig.

GB similar although theyre giving a decent plus vig to lay 9 with them. but I would hold as it might actually hit 7. Might have to pay -110 for it but borderline, if you can get to an even number for next to nothing it is OK to wait.

Bears only -3 now, Seattle taken a lot of money to do that, so it is the 'sharp' side but system doesnt care.

TB another big move towards Denver, not as big as Seattle, but I would wait on this one too as Denver is a major public team and theyre home. Might get 10 somewhere, but definitely more than 7.5 with some decent cheap vig.

Oak +2.5 -110 is slightly better than +114 ML, if you can get +120 ML take that, if not the 2.5 is 'better' in theory. I personally think Oak wins Su pretty easily but that isnt the system.

SD Not a lot going on, initial number of +120 was an obvious take, long gone now, now youre looking at +105 at best. At +1 -103 thats a toss up. I would take the point personally. Still time before that game so can still watch and see what happens.

Philly is the degenerate special game, last game on Sunday, always best to wait if you like the dog in that game. Although the initial action early today has been slightly on Phi.

Be forewarned, systems was a little stagnant last week after having a bad week before. It did win Thursday, but it always wins the Thursday game.

But I think it is a strong set of numbers this week.

[yisman]

Rams are all over the place, don't play the +9 minus big vig these books throw out there now. Not sure if they do it thinking saps will believe a team can win by 9 in OT now or not (which they cant obviously), but they have done it a lot this year for some reason, where a game is +7.5 at a lot of places many hand a +9 with huge vig.

It's called teaser protection. Pinnacle and 5 Dimes have done it for years. It's the same reason why you see -1 (-125) rather than -2.5.

[wantitall4moi]

It's called teaser protection. Pinnacle and 5 Dimes have done it for years. It's the same reason why you see -1 (-125) rather than -2.5.

only if they have a ties lose format which I dont think Pinnacle has. but it does drop it down a notch.

Pinnacle has done it a lot more this year than in years past, but if they can get 15 or 18 cents for 9 and not have to post 7.5 then good for them. Thats why they do it more than anything else I suppose, they have guys willing to pay -130 for +9, instead of putting up +7.5 for -115.

[steveq]

i got the 4.5

[steveq]

i got 4.5 houston and 4 in new england what any one think of that

[yisman]

only if they have a ties lose format which I dont think Pinnacle has. but it does drop it down a notch.

Pinnacle has done it a lot more this year than in years past, but if they can get 15 or 18 cents for 9 and not have to post 7.5 then good for them. Thats why they do it more than anything else I suppose, they have guys willing to pay -130 for +9, instead of putting up +7.5 for -115.

if they have a line at 7.5, someone will do a 6 point teaser and tease it past the 3 as well.

If they do it at 9, then the teaser sends it to 3. Most books freeroll you if your team wins by 3 and you have -3. If the other leg loses, the teaser is a loser, and if the other side wins, they void the teaser.

So most books love it if you tease to 3. DSI and others freeroll you on teasers that way.

Pinnacle always has a lot of -1s juiced and +9s juiced, every season. (if you tease a +1, it can only get to the 7, not past it).

[wantitall4moi]

GB -7 -105 right now, might be best you see.

Rams got to +330 coming down some now, but anything over +300 is decent.

Bears got to -3 +100, begging for money on them at this point. So system against the money there.

[wantitall4moi]

if they have a line at 7.5, someone will do a 6 point teaser and tease it past the 3 as well.

If they do it at 9, then the teaser sends it to 3. Most books freeroll you if your team wins by 3 and you have -3. If the other leg loses, the teaser is a loser, and if the other side wins, they void the teaser.

So most books love it if you tease to 3. DSI and others freeroll you on teasers that way.

Pinnacle always has a lot of -1s juiced and +9s juiced, every season. (if you tease a +1, it can only get to the 7, not past it).

yeah I understand the methodology I just dont dick around with teasers. With books that have to offer them on every game i see why they do it. As a player you can cherry pick what you want anyway.

[yisman]

in any case, the lines shouldn't matter too much to a straight bettor.

At 5 Dimes, you can even use reduced juice and get the "real" line (you can't tease the reduced juice lines, so they have them at the correct 7.5 instead of 9).

If you were going to take -7.5 (-110), you should be willing to take -9 (+108) or whatever, since those numbers are usually pretty dead anyway.

[Kindred]

only if they have a ties lose format which I dont think Pinnacle has. but it does drop it down a notch.

Pinnacle has done it a lot more this year than in years past, but if they can get 15 or 18 cents for 9 and not have to post 7.5 then good for them. Thats why they do it more than anything else I suppose, they have guys willing to pay -130 for +9, instead of putting up +7.5 for -115.

Actually yisman is correct and it's only done for teaser protection. As wong/wang whatever they are called, basic strategy teasers became popular books started doing this to protect from +ev teasers. The books you see with 7.5 just changed their teaser payouts instead so it's no longer a +ev play to tease -7.5 favorites.

[yisman]

"The books you see with 7.5 just changed their teaser payouts instead so it's no longer a +ev play to tease -7.5 favorites."

Heritage is the only one I know of that did that. Heritage has the worst teaser odds in the industry, despite claiming to have the best.

Wong teasers were good before they were ruined by being plastered all over. Back in the day there were many ways to have an advantage, but now it's very difficult.

Pinnacle and 5 Dimes have been shading the lines for teaser protection for at least three years now, I believe.

[wantitall4moi]

I always love how that blackjack player got credit for it. Guys were playing them that way for years and making money hand over fist, he was the only one stupid enough to write about it and make it painfully obvious.

Had he kept his mouth shut it would have maybe never ended, who knows. But guys like him that talk too much and expose actual advantages are... no words to describe it.

There is still one book that offers even money teasers but i cant remember their name but they posted something in EOG awhile ago, but if a book is offering them and they have limits that seem too good to be true its best to tread lightly.

[wantitall4moi]

Almost another one of those weeks....

Rams FG in OT finally gets us on the good side of a 'bad beat' game. Sea winning sucked as Bears dominated that game. But the universe was on Sea today so they had some help to be sure.

Indianapolis was a miracle too. Only a lean but I bet that game personally so I have to comment on it.

Will update everything after 1 PM games are done.

[yisman]

big wins with KC and STL

I was on the bears big, that sucked

[wantitall4moi]

I couldnt read my own handwriting on that one and I miss took a 7 for a 1. Only found it because it is the late game and was just double checking it.

Dallas has the same number as Denver now, which ironically would have still picked Philly but because of what happened in that game(or is happening) it makes it a lean now to Dallas.

So it might sound confusing but it isnt. "good' news is the line is basically the same as it has been all week. But thats what you get when you have a shitty team as a double digit favorite over a team that has give up and has what little talent they do have on the side line in street clothes.


EDIT

had to take out the retraction.

still wont bet the game but as far as the system goes its Phi again, no lean.

[yisman]

I'm pissed that NBC didn't flex out of this crapfest (flexing is an option starting in week 11 for NBC)

hard to justify betting either side tonight.

[Pete0]

big wins with KC and STL

I was on the bears big, that sucked

me 2

Also had SF in a tease, both brutal losses

and now it seems like i'm basically breaking even for the day.

[wantitall4moi]

me 2

Also had SF in a tease, both brutal losses

and now it seems like i'm basically breaking even for the day.

SF losing made the books profitable today. They win books go broke. I loved Rams today, finally got the right side like I said.

As for the late game of course TB comes back and covers. So it goes back to Philly. I might have to scratch that game off now.. I knew better than to post before the game was over.

So we have to disregard the retraction and go back to Phi.

[wantitall4moi]

Grading now since I might not be around for a couple days....

ATS 5-2-1 calling TB a push but better than 8 was around for a long time so hopefully guys got a W out of it. Also calling Oak a spread loss.

ATS leans 3-1

ML 1-1 SD was ML loss, Rams ML win

ML lean 2-1

So a good bounce back after a bad week and a modest week.

Overall

ATS 40-27-2
ATS leans 15-7
MLs 14-11
ML leans 4-12

Five weeks left ( I think) holding a pretty decent return. But it is holding true to form, it is either very good, or very bad. Thats why you have to follow it for its entirety because it ends up profitable.

[wantitall4moi]

LOL the system is magic, or was today.

Back and forth on the Eagles and Cowboys game, and what happens? Cowboys get a late score to look like they have the cover only to have the Eagles get a punt return to backdoor the hell out of it.

Akin to me switching to Dallas due to clerical error and (assumed) result, then having to switch back due to a similar occurance in the corresponding game.

Didnt do me any good personally because I didnt bet that game last night. But just ironic how I had too go back and forth on the game and that is basically how the game ended.

[Sam Odom]

Good job wanti

[No coincidences]

Sea winning sucked as Bears dominated that game. But the universe was on Sea today so they had some help to be sure.

I don't understand this comment at all. The Bears "dominated that game"? How do you figure? And CHI got every break imaginable through the first three quarters.

[wantitall4moi]

I don't understand this comment at all. The Bears "dominated that game"? How do you figure? And CHI got every break imaginable through the first three quarters.

I watched it I didnt read a stats sheet. Bears controlled that game for 59 minutes 30 seconds. Total melt down that last drive and unreal bullshit defense, that we have all seen a million times.

The fact bears got the ball and scored in about 3 seconds proved they were the better team. Sea scored a TD in OT to stop Bears from getting the ball, had bears gotten a chance i have no doubt they get their own TD, but it aint college and thats the way it goes. No excuses. Bears lost a game they had in the bank.

[mathdotcom]

Got numbers done on time this week....

Atl minus best
Hou minus best (lean)
Jax plus best(lean)
Ind plus best (lean)
Indy ML (lean)
KC ML (lean)
KC plus best
Az plus best (lean)
Rams ML
Rams plus best
GB minus best
Bears minus best
TB plus best
TB ML (lean)
SD best line ML or spread
Oak best line ML or Spread
Phi plus best

Of course we are grading these as winners when they could've pushed or lost.

Of course we get credit for the leans because they won, but if they'd all lost then they were 'just leans'.

If you always give yourself "the best line", it is impossible to lose. Go through SBR odds this season and pretend you bet every dog at 'the best line', then calculate your profits. Then go through again and pretend you bet every favorite 'at the best line', then calculate your profits. Amazing! They're both positive!

How about posting some spreads with your picks?