Originally posted by wantitall4moi
-
Yes I did play some stand alone. Took Lions, Jets, Skins and Ravens ML. Have broncos at +4 1/2 in a tease and Broncos ML. Its tricky tricky tricky! Thanks for the hard work. Keep it up!Comment -
Licking my chops for this weeks picks,
Cant wait!
Bol all.Comment -
Day late this week had some stuff....
Sea plus points
Sea ML (lean) +300 or better
Tenn plus points
Cle plus points
Cle ML (lean) +150 or better
Balt plus points
Balt ML (lean) +275 or better (will get more)
Rams Plus points
Rams ML
Car ML
Car plus points (if +2 or more)
Arizona plus points
Arizona ML (lean) +250 or better
NYG minus best
Jets plus points
Jets ML (lean) +400 or better
Det plus points
Det ML
Basically it picked the board this week, but that is what starts to happen once the numbers start hashing out. even the couple games I didnt throw out were borderline and playable in a 'short' week.
Its been an underdog season so far with dogs killing it. Picks 9 dogs again this week. If favs turn it around it could be a very bad weekend for the system. If dogs hold true it will be another bookie buster.Comment -
I'm not so confident with jets and Arizona. I think Brady wants revenge from last week and Minn plays well at home. But that's why you play the system and not the gut/head right? Thanks for the info wanti!Comment -
Looks like its either boom or bust this weekend...
Wanti let me know which ones exactly you're bettingComment -
good luck this week !!!!Comment -
Wanti, I wanted to know what you thought about these facts regarding the 49ers.
Teams who are losing by 10 or more points after the 3Q and win the game are 4-12 ATS the following week the past 5 years. In road games that drops to just 2-7 ATS.
Hawks beat GB, lose to rams. Beat Pats...
Also, following games after 49ers lose when Harbaugh is coach.
9/18/11 Lose to Dallas 24-27
9/25/11 Win against Cincinnati 13-8
11/24/11 Lose to Baltimore 6-16
12/4/11 Win against St.Louis 26-0
12/11/11 Lose to Arizona 19-21
12/19/11 Win against Pittsburgh 20-3
9/23/12 Lose to Minnesota 13-24
9/30/12 win against Jets 34-0
They just lose last week to Giants 26-3
Seahawks are my team and I want them to win but the Under seems like a smarter play. Does your system predict a score outcome or just the spread?Comment -
36.5Originally posted by bryanoensComment -
GL , wanti
Comment -
You da Man!Comment -
Keep it up.
Was under the impression you were against the whole system and modeling thing thoughComment -
was hoping Tampa would be one of your selections....that's who i like
Comment -
Like the Seattle play tonight... Good luckComment -
Nice win wantiComment -
money in the bank. I played some +320 ML stuff so it was a break even type of day.Originally posted by broadway6
But the strength of 7-9.5 dogs covering is strong. But the favs still continue to win SU.
Although that was a completely lucky win, had 9 anyway but with a push I lose money considering the ML play.
Theoretically the right call, but borderline nonetheless.Comment -
Originally posted by wantitall4moi
take every lucky win we can get. books get plenty of lucky wins. 7-9.5 MLs are tough to hit, but when you do it's
Comment -
Early bump for all...Originally posted by wantitall4moiComment -
Good thread. I like some of these.Comment -
Couple interesting moves today, similar to last week.
Spreads on Baltimore and Dallas have moved 'their way' but the MLs have moved towards the dog. Happened a couple times last week as well. Giants was one of them. Basically spread gets more expensive but ML gets cheaper.
I predicted Balt would be higher than 275, they should, they have gone above it a few times but now sit at +240 despite being +7 with cheaper vig than they were at +280. So a very interesting move. I got +285 because I think I was the only guy to take balt with the local I use, everyone and their brother has crushed both Dallas and Hou with him, so I get nice bonuses to price, to help even him out. similar to when I bet against the lakers with him.
Arizona is another one, but not quite as extreme as the other two, theyre right in line with a decent +7 dog ML pay off. Theyre between +260-275. which any 'normal' ML should be on a +7 -105 dog.
In the end I shotgunned every early game, I bet them all and took every ML I could get pretty much.
Doing something alittle different and holding on the afternoon games.
System picks the Juts, but I personally think NE beats them by 20 or more. So that is a true test of the ability to follow a system. Jets are way over +400 on the ML as well, they hit +450 yesterday but have come down slightly. but how can anyone bet the Jets on the road SU? Have to wait and see, system has made me money and if it does OK in the morning or looks like it I will hold my nose and at least take the points. Irony is the DD dogs are the only dogs not covering this year, Dogs on a whole are like 65% but DD dogs have only covered twice in 8 games, and one of those teams won SU. So that is also in the back of my mind.
But its a very frot end heavy board but it is also a front end heavy day.
Generally these are the days when bookie clean up, you have 6 or 7 1 o clock games, and then you have 2 4 o clock games, and one final bail out games for guys who are completely buried. Then a very 'dangerous' Monday night game to have guys try and get even on.
For total degenerates it is a good day to be careful. Certainly not one to bet the whole board and hope.
ahh what am I talking about guys here arent degenerates.....Comment -
lol funny at the end.....solid wantitall...gl todayComment -
Degeneration Xtreme! BOL Wanti!Comment -
No tampa bay?Comment -
LOL cant believe the trolls arent out today, favorites came back in a big way today thats for sure. Only one I took didnt cover. Basically everything was the opposite of what it has been.
So in a way it was so bad that fading it was good today. So at least it is consistent. If it was 4-4 or something like that it wouldnt really mean much.
But it is going to be 2-5-1 with Jets and Det pending. I got beat up this morning so I am not going to take the Jets. But i am not going to fade it either even though I think NE wins by 20.Comment -
I got 2-7-1 with 3 pending. Want to make sure I'm playing these rightComment -
I didnt count the MLs... i did worse than thatOriginally posted by dogs1972Comment -
Tampa Bay fukked usComment -
It's ok wanti. Any given Sunday. I got a nice tease still alive as long as cin and lions don't get blown out. Any thoughts on the game tonight? I may throw more money on cincyComment -
Canuck he wasn't on tampaComment -
Well Carolina fukked us tooComment -
LOL they all fukked us today. I had a feeling thats why I said it could be really good or really bad. I almost inverted it, since we're in that 'tweener time', and then it would have been another really good week, but thats not how it works.Originally posted by CanuckGComment -
Well what can I say, it was a bad week, they happen in all things. Worst thing about it was the volume. Most games picked, worst results. Had Det won SU it wouldnt have been a complete disaster, but they didnt, they did cover, but a band aid on a decapitation basically.
As with last week a lot of games fall into parameters, so quite a few leans, not a ton of solid numbers.
Wash plus points
Wash ML (lean) +220 or better
Det (lean) dont lay more than -110 for -2.5, if it goes to -3 I would pass completely only a lean
Car plus points(system loves them picks them every week I think)
Pats minus best available should be some 6's during the week, dont lay more than -110
Indy plus points (lean)
GB minus best, hopefully -10 at most when it shows up. If more than 10 then its a lean only
Oak might as well take the ML here
NYG ML probably best option also
Denver minus best available
AZ plus points
AZ ML (lean)
Also picked Phi but since Phi is a fav and a small one not a ton of 'value' there. Similar to the NYG/Dallas game but NYG slightly better even though on the road.
Lines are really tight this week, not a lot of numbers over 3. With the exception of some double digits types here and there. But like I say the line doesnt matter that much, but there are a lot of coin flip games this week and the books smartened up by posting a lot of small numbers. I guess they can read how dogs have dominated this year as well and adjusted slightly.
Better teams will start winning and covering it is inevitable, better teams have really been winning all season they just havent been covering.
Thats why I should have switched it up last week because the better teams won again for the most part AND they got to cover because the lines had been hedged down slightly. While books dont like favorites for the most part, when there is a major trend it does suck people in, Dogs were winning/covering at about 65% so people will take notice of that, so the idea that it is always 'public on favorites' is just wrong.
In the end I suspect books did OK, so many early games where guys got beat up and only 4 games after 1 on Sunday for people to get action on. Although last night could have hurt them as it middled and the last number was the 'best' number on Det.Comment -
Doubt it. Even with the dogs covering like crazy so far this season, I would be stunned if the books didn't get their brains beat in on DAL/CAR, NO/TB, GB/StL and PIT/CIN. Highly doubt any public money came in on the Panthers, Bucs, Packers and Bengals. Jets helped neutralize things a little, but all in all, I'd be willing to bet it was a pretty ugly day for the books overall.Originally posted by wantitall4moiComment -
i know your system likes carolina but i think the league is figuring out cam. also, i have a feeling his teammates will turn on him very soon...Comment -
Plus every teaser wonOriginally posted by No coincidencesComment -
every teaser could win every week for the next 50 years and books would still be profitable on them the way the odds are now. Thats how big a head start they have, its money in the bank to them.Originally posted by CanuckG
People think because the public wins a few games or some make believe site that claims to know what percentage is 'sharp' and 'public' means books lost are deluded. 99% of the people that bet are betting an amount that barely registers, Or theyre betting parlay cards. Especially in Vegas. So if 99% of the public was on a side and it won that doesnt mean jack shit. 5 or 6 guys who actually bet money can balance thousands 5 and 10 dollar players very easily.
I would say Sunday they were maybe possible down slightly. Last night hurt them a lot worse than all the other games combined. Because it got hammered all week and guys that bought back also won. Those are the games that hurt.Comment
