So I broke out the old system

[Full Time Hobo]

Liking the pitt play

[Porterhouse]

Little nervous about the PIT play, but I'm with you till the bitter end!

[wantitall4moi]

Little nervous about the PIT play, but I'm with you till the bitter end!

I would rather get 3/3.5 and a 175 or more ML on them without roethlisberger than have to lay 3 (with -120 or more vig) without him.

NO QB is worth 6 points, books can 'value' them at that but I am not buying it.

Leftwich wsnt a bad QB he just played for a bad team. He hasnt taken snaps with the starters probably in 3 years, so of course he looked off coming in cold. He had the week to prepare and get in time they'll be fine.

This line was based solely on media hype and the fact Balt scored 55 points last week. They took a chance most 'pros' werent going to hammer it and so far they have been right. But it was an informed chance since Roethlisberger and Pitt have been known to lie about injuries. But I doubt he plays, and I dont think he needs to.

I like the play personally, the system doesnt care one way or the other it doesnt factor any of that stuff in.

[Parligod]

Is Buffalo no longer a play? It opened as PK and now its -2.5 in most places.

[wantitall4moi]

Is Buffalo no longer a play? It opened as PK and now its -2.5 in most places.

Discretion, it was a PK or -1 (without crazy vig) for 2 or 3 days.

[Porterhouse]

I would rather get 3/3.5 and a 175 or more ML on them without roethlisberger than have to lay 3 (with -120 or more vig) without him.

NO QB is worth 6 points, books can 'value' them at that but I am not buying it.

Leftwich wsnt a bad QB he just played for a bad team. He hasnt taken snaps with the starters probably in 3 years, so of course he looked off coming in cold. He had the week to prepare and get in time they'll be fine.

This line was based solely on media hype and the fact Balt scored 55 points last week. They took a chance most 'pros' werent going to hammer it and so far they have been right. But it was an informed chance since Roethlisberger and Pitt have been known to lie about injuries. But I doubt he plays, and I dont think he needs to.

I like the play personally, the system doesnt care one way or the other it doesnt factor any of that stuff in.

Makes total sense, thanks for the reply.

[broadway6]

wanti, are you pounding bills tonight?

[wantitall4moi]

wanti, are you pounding bills tonight?

had to wait for the game to be over to answer that :P.

Nah I played a little -115 earlier this week, wasnt in love with the game but was a decent system number.

So 1 down the board to go.

[wantitall4moi]

O.K. I went through and re-did the grading, had a few errors I think I counted a few MLs as both ATS and ML both, so lost a couple wins.

ATS Plays 30-13-1 (counting Bills tonight)

ATS (LEANS) 9-4

ML Plays 10-7 (+10.80)

ML (LEANS) 2-8

A lot of the ML leans are +250 or better dogs, but then again so are some of the ML plays, so no excuse I guess, but leans are leans and should be approached accordingly. Although ATS leans are hitting what is expected or slightly better. ATS leans expected to hit around 58-65% ML leans should be around 30-35% so they have some work to do. But basically all the negative shit happened in one week. Erase that week and it has been unreal. But thats the nature of the beast, I knew it was a transition week and commented on it, but I still went in pretty heavy personally.

Anyway tracking is accurate now, feel free to double check.

[gator101]

Great work and thanks for the win with the bills last night, great work and keep it up! Do you do anything else besides the nfl? Or does your data only produce with nfl? Thanks and gl

[AdaBarber]

Hey wantitall, is this the opening line you are referring to?

no formula given, a lean is a game that has a set of numbers that game falls into not a specific number. it has a 60-65% chance of landing. a non lean game is a game that has a specific number that has come up and has a track record of winning (better than 65%). I wasnt going to keep records but I started to because I was getting lot of leans so I wanted ot throw the numbers out there for people to decide for themselves.

best just means find the best number. I dont get into who got what, it gives a side you decide what to do if the line moves. There have been 2 games that were effected which is actually a lot, but the 'good' numbers were available for plenty of time so getting them shouldnt have been an issue anyway. its not like that one winning number was there for a split second and then gone again.

I started this thread basically to show that the NFL isnt that hard to beat, but it still doesnt mean it is a good bet.

EDIT: for example this week Phil/Wash game is Wash -3.5 system number. Doesnt matter what that number means, it is a number it generates. Games that have had that number this year are....TB/Dal wk3 TB covered; Sea/Rams wk 4 Rams SU/covered; Min/Det wk 4 Det SU/covered; Cle/NYG wk5 NYG Su/covered (loss); Det/Phil wk 6 Det SU/cover; Oak/KC wk 8 Oak SU/cover; Car/Was wk 9 Car SU/cover; Pitt/NYG wk 9 Pit SU/cover.

So therefore Phil has a number that is 8-1 both ATS and ML, every one was a dog, they all won outright except Cle.

so a -3.5 number is bet the dog, which is in most cases also the road team, only team that was a dog and not on road was Rams, but I am pretty sure I commented on that game that week.

Are you referring to the opening lines?

[Parligod]

Nice call on Bills. I passed because I couldn't find a decent line but it was still fun to watch. Miami just hit 2 straight teams that each give up over 30PPG and they've scored 3 and 14 points respectively....sad.

[wantitall4moi]

Hey wantitall, is this the opening line you are referring to?





Are you referring to the opening lines?

no, system number generated by the system, nothing to do with the point spread

[gator101]

How far do you track back your data if you don't mind me asking? And is it a program that you made or someone else made for you. You say it spits out numbers on games to play. Are you betting against the public that hit the favorites hard or are you waiting to see what way the line moves before making your picks? Thanks If you want you can always p.m. me if you would rather do so. Or if you don't want to explain at all i am fine with that as well, Once again thanks again for all your hard work!!!! Hard to find Great Capper's that actually give out there picks instead of all the tout's that don't really know shit. JMO

[wantitall4moi]

it goes by this season only, it doesnt take spreads into account at all, it generally picks the team that will win outright, but obviously in some cases you'll take the favorite minus the points, generally with dogs, depending on the (system)number it is a ML play or a lean on the ML but always at least an ATS play. The last few weeks have been judgement calls as books have really tightened down lines and have put up a lot of Pk em lines, many have moved but a lot of places keep -1 with huge vigs to exposure. So some of those games have ended up being ML plays rather than both MLs and on the spread.

My approach has always been get the best number you can but dont let it paralyze you if you dont. As long as you pay attention youre going to be able to read any major moves anyway that might actually matter.

[gator101]

it goes by this season only, it doesnt take spreads into account at all, it generally picks the team that will win outright, but obviously in some cases you'll take the favorite minus the points, generally with dogs, depending on the (system)number it is a ML play or a lean on the ML but always at least an ATS play. The last few weeks have been judgement calls as books have really tightened down lines and have put up a lot of Pk em lines, many have moved but a lot of places keep -1 with huge vigs to exposure. So some of those games have ended up being ML plays rather than both MLs and on the spread.

My approach has always been get the best number you can but dont let it paralyze you if you dont. As long as you pay attention youre going to be able to read any major moves anyway that might actually matter.

So you are not dating back numerous years with the data and looking at opening lines and ats to closing lines ats at all? And on your approach to get the best number, are you looking at steam moves on the line or public betting? I have tried a lot of thing to predict winners and seem to always come up short, i was hoping at some time in my life i could actually come up with a good betting system to produce and be able to share it with others. Haven't found that yet. Have used YPP and at times it did well other times it hasn't and numerous so called good systems that didn't produce either. Thanks for your insight and thanks for your picks, they are amazing!!

[wantitall4moi]

its not nearly that complicated.

I run some numbers, it spits out a result, I check a chart, that gives me a side. Bet the side, thats it.

The chart does go back a few years, but only for comparisons not data.

[broadway6]

any changes wanti, or the plays posted good to go?

[AdaBarber]

Thanks buddy.

[wantitall4moi]

Numbers havent moved a ton this week, so not a lot.

Only one might be concerned about is Cinci who was -3 and is now -3.5 on the road. Most people would say it is now a pass, I say still a play just be mindful of the chances. But that was a lean game anyway so its was always a discretionary play.

Indy ML should get better but obviously if we do bad in the morning then maybe stick to just the spread which has a much better chance obviously.

[Br0nxer]

GL Wanty

[darkhat]

would not be surprised if it is above 75% for the season

database go back years with information

[GGPLAYER]

Buff Whatever best option is,
Cinci minus best (lean)
Jax plus best (lean) solid lean but only 4 games to go by those 4 are 3-1 for jax.
Rams minus best
Dallas minus best
Car plus best
Car ML (solid lean)
Atl minus best
Det plus best
Det ML
Phi ML
Phi plus best (lean) only bet if its good vig ML should be enough
Oak plus best
Oak ML
Den minus best
Indy (solid lean)
Indy ML (lean)
Pitt minus best
SF (lean)

Awesome thread. It's my first time seeing it and it gives me a lot of confidence that I already liked a lot of your posted plays.

[wantitall4moi]

would not be surprised if it is above 75% for the season

database go back years with information

cant hit 75% when it bets the board, or close to it. Of 114 games this season(since i started) it has had opinions on 62 or 63 of them thats a large percentage considering it is only looking at sides.

[broadway6]

wish it gave a top play.

[wantitall4moi]

wish it gave a top play.

doesnt work that way, strongest performing number is philly and philly ML. Only loss was Cle against Dallas. Followed by Car but we all know what you get with Carolina.

[broadway6]

doesnt work that way, strongest performing number is philly and philly ML. Only loss was Cle against Dallas. Followed by Car but we all know what you get with Carolina.

no problem pal. let's have a good day

[darkhat]

cant hit 75% when it bets the board, or close to it. Of 114 games this season(since i started) it has had opinions on 62 or 63 of them thats a large percentage considering it is only looking at sides.

Will be very high percentage either way

[krimmer2]

carolina lookin finer wanti

[wantitall4moi]

Det couldnt hold on and then the late FG made it even worse. So a bad day became horrible.

Early games...

ATS 0-4 (Car pending)
ML 0-2
ATS leans 2-0
ML lean pending

[krimmer2]

sorry wanti carolina looked good

[wantitall4moi]

LOL a seriously bad beat followed by one of the most brutal...pretty fitting

[darkhat]

terrible beat

[Parligod]

Ugly day. I was very surprised by a lot of the games. Panthers have horrible luck/break down in 4th quarter. Lions had a couple non-calls by refs imo.

[dogs1972]

well fuk