I would say last night Detroit backdoor cover was good for books especially the under
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my local got killed on the three team teasersComment -
Not on the original board, but Minn at 5 is a lean now, we're going against the money here, but it now fits with the lower number. Might get to 4.5. Not a huge deal but in the one in a thousand chance the game ends 21-15 or something goofy with a ton of FGs you avoid the push.Comment -
hope it's just a lean b/c i'm on Tampa
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by the looks you might be right, but then again TB came out like gang busters last week.Originally posted by broadway6hope it's just a lean b/c i'm on Tampa
i didnt play the game, but since it fit the system I wanted to put it out there.Comment -
Wanti need your best play today, pal.Comment -
doesnt pick best, NE -6.5 would have been strong though but best you will see now is -7, if you can get -7 +100 its OK.Originally posted by broadway6
Other than that Carolina +8, 8.5 if you can get it for -110 or better.Comment -
i was actually thinking about betting CAR b/c Bears are coming off a short week....but Carolina is in turmoil... i hate this card
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Big bounce back today after the disaster last week. 5-1 on plays 2-2 on leans. although Green bay at -16 wasnt really even a lean but I am not going to debate semantics, but anyone who lays more than 2 TDs in the NFL should have their head examined.
I am sure most guys were scared off it after last week, that is understandable, but its a system you take it for what it gives you, good and bad. 4 awesome weeks in a row, one bad week, and people freak out, thats gamblers mentality.
So updated Results...
ATS Plays 21-10
Leans 5-8
MLs 10-9(counts leans as well which also count in the leans line)Comment -
Good job, wanti. Can you explain the basis or theory of the system?Comment -
wanti, are you pounding Arizona?Comment -
SD (lean) minus best dont like laying D, but.... hopefully it shifts back to where it opened -9
Buf plus best
Indy ML or plus points if more than 2 depending on vig
Cinci Plus best
Cinci ML
Chi (lean) minus best
Det minus best
Car (system loves them) plus best
Pitt plus best
Lots of 3.5 games this week its that time of the year. But generally speaking if youre going to take +3.5 you should also take the ML. Yeah doesnt sound 'right' but not many 3.5 dogs lose by 1,2, or 3 they win SU. That isnt 'system related' that is from years of tracking them. I only put up what the system says in this thread, but just as an FYI I would watch the MLs in some of those games as they might offer better 'value'.
Dal/Atl and Phi/NO have the same number, its a tricky one so we will watch to see what happens inthe first game and might have a play for the monday game based on that. But as it stands right now both road tams would be leans with points.Comment -
interesting threadComment -
System all over carolinaComment -
Indy is a coin flip now ML only around +110 or so, was +120 earlier, but you can get +2 -105 so that is probably the 'best' play.
Cinci have a feeling 10 minutes before kick will be best, but ML is 175 now if you dont want to wait or take a chance. Spread took a small hit so judgement call.
Det got crushed so hopefully people bet them early, 3.5 or 5.5 not as ig a difference as some would like to make it out to be, but still a lot of points to 'waste' when you had a lot of time to get a better number.
Caar got to 4 with reasonable vig, back at 3 now. Still OK to play since worst it will be is a push compared to the 'better' number. Obviously if they lose by 3 and you waited the 3.5 and 4 that were available on them were good numbers.
Pitts similar 3.5 most of the week, now painted 3 about everywhere.
I figure most teams that win SU cover this week, generally that is the case but this year a lot more 'covers' have happened, I think tit starts getting back to normal so that any team that covers this week will win SU.
Buff the one that could 'cover' without winning, but ironically the DD dogs have been the wons not covering, which for a year like this is doubly strange, so the system is bucking the current trend with them, but it just goes by numbers not by results or point spreads.Comment -
Nice Carolina read.
Anything tn?Comment -
4-1-1, 4-2 if you didnt get 12 on Buffalo. 2-0 on leans. Although when SD went to 7 it became a solid play, but wont count it since I didnt post it here, but did make an individual post about that game (which no one read).
So without that hiccup (vomit) a couple weeks ago system has been stellar. Still ATS it is at 25-11 (23-13 with the worst numbers), MLs are at 10-10 now, and leans are 7-8.
So still very profitable considering how a lot of people are getting wrecked this year in the NFL.
Not sure how many people left monitoring it or if guys went over to EOG, or if that bad week scared them off. Hopefully guys still playing it.Comment -
GG. Any thoughts on snfComment -
Solid day wanti.Originally posted by wantitall4moiComment -
Im still here. Enjoy the thread every week and has been working for me. Thanks!Comment -
good to hear, like I 'predicted' every team that won SU covered (so far), with the possible exception of Houston which could have run the gammett as I actually saw some 12.5s at a few of books (lower limit places) early in the week. But I would suspect most people who bet Buff lost. Except us who got 12
hopefully.
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playing and loaded up heavily on pitt and carolina! Thanks for your work on this and thanks for sharing most of all! i appreciate it. any lean tonight? thanks,Comment -
Thanks for the plays Wantit.Comment -
I check this thread every week for plays. Thank wantit, good job man
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Thanks for the picks wanti!Comment -
dallas was a lean at 6.5/7 but value all gone, only lean would be ML but even that has tanked now, at +200 its worth a look at 175 its a flyer.Comment -
So whats your take on the game tonight?Comment -
smallest of leans on New Orleans on the ML is probably the best play. -135 or so can be found.Comment -
Originally posted by wantitall4moi
my book has 3.5. he got crushed yesterday, so he wants to make sure people taking the favorites have to pay that extra half or full point.Comment -
Wanti, you are killing it. Keep it up. I check your thread all the time.Comment -
OK, here we go.
Another step lightly week maybe.
It is another week where it basically picks the board. I will list them as is, then give commentary on them....
Minn watch odds ML might be the best option as this will hover around a PK
NYG minus best (lean)
Oak plus best
Tenn plus best
TB minus best
Den minus best(solid lean) system picked AGAINST Car, thats why it is a lean not a full pick :P
Sea minus best, might want to grab it before it goes to 7 then work with it after
Phil similar to Minn watch odds and ML
Chi same as phi/dal and min/det
N.O. ditto
K.C. plus best.
Minn/Det; Chi/Hou; and Phi/Dallas all share the same number (PK/-.5) in the system, amazing they are also PK or close to it on the board, system usually doesnt land on the spreads too often. New Orleans for example is also a PK on the board, but a +6 on the system. +6 equals a home team SU play. So different system reasoning same lines on the board.
Books have really lashed down the numbers, I dont think I have ever seen so many PK/1 games in the same week ever. I guess they are trying to fool people after they got absolutely buried last week.
But it stays the same, you bet the team you think will win, this week however they arent giving odds on those teams.
System also picked against Car for the first time, I think it has actually picked them in every game every week, so it hasnt even skipped them. This game shares a similar number to Indy/Jax but I eliminated that game even as a lean because it is on a subset border which means it could go either way, one side is home dog, other side is road fav. So it turned out being a pass.
TB is the strong side but the books are really jacking up the vig, they have made you pay premium no matter what the line was. Opened -1 -125, then -2.5 was -118, then -3 was -115, now its -3 -117. Generally when they move the points they give you a break on the vig, not in this case, like I said books trying every trick they have to recoup some of that money they lost last week. That might be another one where the ML is the better option, PK -170 is better than -3 -120.
Well it goes without saying that the teams that win SU this week cant help but cover, there are 4 PK em games, and another that opened a PK and has moved to -3.Comment -
Can't beleive they went against carolinaComment -
Love the picks. Thanks for all your help.
Btw, have you shed any light on what information this system uses?
Thanks!Comment -
i don't know pal, i think we should all tread lightly this week.Comment -
Minn ML and now +3, line has moved a ton, not sure if there are injuries or not I dont check those.
Oak +9.5 now but dont pay the crazy vig.
Tenn basically unchanged all week
TB still -3, if you can find -3 for less than -105. Then couple it up with an SD ML (+150 or better) play or something goofy. But thats personal opinion/strategy not system logic.
Sea unchanged
Phi ML +120 should be easy enough
Chi if you have to pay more than -110 for -1 then just take the -120 ML
New Orleans +115 or better ML should be easy enough
Leans as is and KC we can discuss later.Comment
