Rice game didn't pan out.
NIT [2nd Half] Bucknell-Arizona Under 70.5 [-110]
NIT [2nd Half] Bucknell-Arizona Under 70.5 [-110]
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CBI [2nd Half] W.Illinois-Oregon State Over 71 [-110]Comment -
Little slow on the 2nd halves today. The last batch did not match up for shit with the numbers. Fullerton-Loyola pointed to overs and it's not close. Oh well, 5-3 on 2nd halves the 1st two days will work. Tomorrow's the big one. Getting my Region together, chosen the WEST to be my region to play along with the 2nd halves of course. Let's start strong on Thursday.
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Postseason Record
Overall: 6-4 [+1.80]
2nd Halves: 5-3 [+1.70]Comment -
WEST REGIONAL FUTURES
Missouri +220 [1 unit]
This region has the potential to get blown up with some upsets along the way. Michigan State as the top seed is tough to go against based on the Izzo factor. If there is a coach who gets more out of what he has on his roster in March, show him to me. State faces a tougher road though than the #2 seeded Tigers. State has a potential disaster scenario in the 2nd round with Memphis or St.Louis definitely capable of KO-ing the top seed. I look at the 4-5 match-ups with Louisville/Davidson & New Mexico/Long Beach State and any of those four have the talent to make it to the 2nd week and beyond in this region. I see the bottom of the bracket a bit more straight forward with a lot of similarly styled teams in Murray State, Marquette, Florida and Missouri. That should bode well for the Tigers who do everything the other teams want to do ... better and with more consistency. The thing most point out for Missouri is that a team with size with trouble them. That is true, but in this region - if Mizzou's shooting stays steady, I don't think they find that potentially until a Regional Final. And when they get there, if they do see Michigan State [which is no guarantee] ... it could be offense, not defense that wins out.
Marquette +800 [0.5 unit]
Some people may not like taking two teams in the same part of the bracket, but with how the West is set up - I have a hard time not seeing Marquette or Mizzou in the Regional Final. And that gives you a chance to win the Region with one of these futures with a hedge opportunity on the opposition. Marquette to me has the easier path to the 2nd week. BYU and perhaps Murray State would stand in their way. Both are pretty solid match-ups for Marquette who have the athletes to run with both teams and a little beef inside with the return of Gardner. This is an experienced bunch that made the Sweet 16 in 2011 and knows how to win. I think good defensive teams can trouble them, but again in this draw - I don't see that team here until a Regional Final scenario. At longer odds and with a legit shot in this Region .. Marquette makes sense to me.Comment -
3.15.12
West Regional Play #1: Murray State-Colorado State Total Three Point Shots Made Over 11.5 [-130]
You've got two of the best three point shooting teams by percentage in the country, ranking 5th & 6th at both just above a notch over 40%. Murray State bangs home 7.4 threes per game on about 18 attempts. The Rams net six threes on just 15 attempts. Murray State has been the better defenders of the 3 ball, allowing just under 30% while the Rams have had issues, allowing 38% on the season. Isaiah Canaan & Donte Poole who average five makes between them are the big guns for the Races and are both capable of making multiple threes very quickly. Canaan has "in the gym" range and I'd expect him to showcase that early. The Rams aren't volume shooters, but they do make six per game on about 15 attempts. They have multiple options to kill you from outside, including Eikmeier, Green and Sabas. Eikmeier is the key for me for the Rams. When he gets it going early, he can fill it up and open the game up for the other shooters. I think Colorado State is the key component of this prop. It would be great to see them fling up 20 or more threes, but those games are not found much in their resume. If they do their average work and get a half dozen or more threes, I think Murray State is going to do the rest and if the Racers get hot ... they can do most of the damage by themselves.
West Regional Play #2: Louisville-Davidson Over 139 [-110]
Davidson is a dangerous offensive club that is going to challenge Louisville's defense. They stretch the floor with both their big guys - Brooks & Cohen - encouraged to step out and can threes. They take 'em and make 'em. Davidson averaged 77 ppg on 48% shooting and before you think it was all against subpar So-Co competition, don't forget they hung 80 on Kansas and they didn't even shoot the ball that well. They also get to the line plenty despite shooting plenty of threes, all good for this attempt. Louisville obviously isn't an offensive juggernaut, but they flashed some ability in the Big East tournament against Marquette who plays a similar [but faster] up-tempo style like Davidson. The Cards started getting easier buckets with their press and I expect to see that today if they can make their shots. They should against a Wildcats D that yields 68 ppg due to tempo. Pitino says Davidson runs more than any team they have faced outside of Long Beach State. Louisville contained the 49ers to 66 pts, while scoring 79 in that early season clash. They forced 21 turnovers and that is something they'll be looking for again today - turnovers and easy buckets. If they do that well, this should push into the 140s.Comment -
West Regional Play #3: Marquette's Darius Johnson-Odom Total Points Over 18.5 [-130]
DJO has scored at least 19 in 16 of Marquette's 30 games that he played in this season. He is an excellent penetrator and he's also capable of filling it up from outside where he shoots 39%. He's at his best when he can get into the paint and draw fouls. He's been to the line 153 times, an average of about five times per game. His athleticism and quickness should be a problem for BYU's guards and even if the Cougars choose to try and zone it up like they did against Iona, DJO has the outside shot to get his points there. He usually logs plenty of minutes, averaging 32.5 per game this season and likely to play 35+ if this game remains fairly close. The magic # on shot attempts is usually about 15 for DJO to have a great shot at getting 19 or better and couple that with at least five FTAs and I'll take my chance that he gets it done. He's also made at least one three in 27 games this season with multiple bombs scored in 24 games.Comment -
NCAA [2nd Half] Colorado State-Murray State Under 72 [-110]Comment -
Well at least the 2nd halves start with a winner. 3 prop bombs with a terrible shooting 2ns half after they got 7 in the 1st half. Interesting to see how shooting is in the next game at the Chicken Shack because the rims sounded either too loose or too tight on a lot of shotsComment -
West Regional Play #4: New Mexico's Drew Gordon Total Rebounds Over 10.5 [-120]
Gordon has snared at least 11 rebounds in five of his last six and eight of his last ten overall. Overall, he has tallied at least 11 boards in 18 of 33 overall with some monster games. Long Beach is a decent rebounding club, but Gordon has the width inside to pose some problems on the glass. He's also pretty solid at playing without getting into a ton of foul difficulty. If he gets his average of 30.5 minutes or so, I think he gets it.Comment -
Number well favor the under for Asheville-Syracuse ... but I got a bad feeling there especially with how the game is going, so passing on that. Asheville has had some monster 2nd halves this season as far as point totals combined.Comment -
Alright on the board with Johnson-Odom getting 20. Finally got a prop to work.Comment -
I took the under small. It does look pretty good.Comment -
[2nd Half] Long Beach State-New Mexico Under 74.5 [-110]Comment -
Well 2nd halves going to drop to 1-1. This New Mexico one at 74 now with :54 left. Good thing is the Gordon Rebound prop comes in, so I "rebound" from an 0-2 start on my West Region picks to hit 2. So a 3-3 day at this point. Can't argue with that all things being said. Tonight, I've got one ML pick for an upset that I'm posting in a little bit. The rest is all 2nd halves ... so let's get that 2nd half cash tonight fellas.
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The anticipation is killing me... My finger hurts from hitting refresh 1.3 million times!
Lets do this phan! Big night.Comment -
[South Regional] New Mexico State +240
This is one of my first round upsets that I wanted to play on the moneyline in these 6-11, 5-12, 4-13 match-ups. The Aggies truly have not been tested out of conference this season, but this is a team that plays fast and scores in bunches. NM State has the size inside to match Indiana. McKines should be a good match-up with Watford with both guys good inside-outside combo players. The Aggies will have to match a talented IU offensive team with points, but I think their size inside could be more a problem and give them the edge on the boards. Rebounding was an issue in some of the Hoosiers losses this season.Comment -
[2nd Half] W.Kentucky-Kentucky Over 72 [-110]
Don't fukk us Cal and take your foot off the pedal dude. Gun it.Comment -
Pretty good pace. Hope they can keep it up with the big lead.Comment -
I'm liking it so far, keep the baskets dropping.Comment -
Alright, 2nd halves move to 2-1 today. Feel good so far because I've had that itch to make plays, but have stayed with the emphasis on not forcing picks just because there are games in-action. Hopefully one of these last four will jive with another play and let's go Aggies!Comment -
Cash It!
Thanks Eagle! 
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OT would be awesome!
Sorry, had the vcu 2h over.Comment -
For a team that likes to play fast, New Mexico looks like they are about to die on defense. Doesn't look early like my try on the #13 upset is going to even be close.Comment -
Sometimes a team that is over excited before a game runs out of gas fast until they catch their second wind.Comment -
Little more of a feel play than formula here, so your risk.
[2nd Half] UConn-Iowa State Over 74.5 [-110]Comment -
NCAA [2nd Half] Loyola (MD)-Ohio State Over 71.5 [-110]Comment -
Well this UConn total went to shit with a nice drought. Hopefully it ends strong with the Ohio State 2nd half winning. New Mexico State is done. They just can't guard IU.Comment -
So much for ending strong. Think it was 4-6 overall. For opening day, not great but not buried.Comment -
Postseason Record
Overall: 10-10 [-0.60]
2nd Halves: 7-6 [+0.50]
End of the night was weak sauce yesterday. Ready to grind through another day.Comment -
3.16.12
[East Region] Texas +135
I know this one won't be popular. but Cincinnati is not an unbeatable squad. True, the Longhorns do not have the inside presence to match-up with Yancy Gates - but Gates is not a superior offensive weapon by any means. He's a guy who grinds inside and gets a lot of his points off of offensive rebounds. I think UT will be content to give Gates some opportunities inside if it comes at the expense of making Cincy's guards more passive in their own offense. For all the hype surrounding their Big East tourney run, this Bearkats squad is still inconsistent and can be beaten by teams with good perimeter defense and rebounding. Even with Wagmene out, UT has been a consistently good rebounding club. It's more of a team effort than a single guy and that should be the game plan today, keep Cincy and Gates off the offensive boards and stay tight on their shooters. While Cincy can stroke it from deep, they have been cold lately at just 26% in their last five. Texas will need a big day from J'Covan Brown of course to stand a shot here. Brown should look to be aggressive and not just settle for jumpers. He may also find success being a distributor to guys like McClelland and Kabongo. Those two will need to supplement Brown with solid games and both have the ability, but have been inconsistent at times. This is another of those 6-11/5-12/4-13s that I want to try on the moneyline. This Texas team has stuck with some very solid clubs this season, losing to KU by just three at home, Mizzou by by a single point at home and they beat a solid Iowa State team two times out of three. Two key stats for me: Rebounding needs to be close to even and the Horns must get to the FT line more than the Bearkats by a solid margin.Comment -
West Regional Play #5: Virginia's Mike Scott Total Points Over 19.5 [-130]
There are no surprises when it comes to UVA and their offense. Scott comprises about 30% of their total output per game and he'll need to have another big one today if the Wahoos want to beat Florida. Scott has been amped up since March began with 29, 35 and 23 points in his last three. He has now scored 20 or better in five of his last six and eleven times overall this season. He's a versatile guy at 6'8" with enough bulk to go inside, but enough skill to hit mid range jumpers and create his own shot. The Gators aren't the best defensive crew, so Scott should have his chances. Key numbers for me: Scott getting to the FT line at least a half dozen times where he shoots 81% and taking at least 15 shots. He should take more shots than that even as he's hoisted up 15 FGAs or better in six of his last eight.Comment
