EP36's March to Madness

[EaglesPhan36]

Too bad SBR crashed. Feelin hot tonight. Took:

NCAA [2nd Half] Cincinnati-Ohio State Over 67.5 [-110]

Deshaun Thomas prop cashed in the 1st half. Cincy had no answers for this kid.

[EaglesPhan36]

No play for me in the Marquette-Florida game. Seems right on the money or so, shorted by about two @ 78 when it should be 80. You'd expect some improvement from Marquette and with the tempo and close nature of the game - fouls could push it over, but it's not one that falls into the "play" category. I'll take what I got tonight and look forward to tomorrow. Rock Chalk Jayhawk time.

[EaglesPhan36]

Postseason Record
Overall: 29-29 [+0.90]
WNCAA: 1-4 [-2.30]
2nd Halves: 15-16 [-2.50]

Best night of the postseason so far. Looking forward to this evening.

[EaglesPhan36]

3.23.12

Midwest Region: Ohio PG D.J. Cooper Total Points Over 15.5 [-130]
Even if Kendall Marshall was playing to check Cooper, I'd like this play. Cooper has scored at least 18 in nine of his past 12 games. In the NCAAs, he's scored 40 points combined. That includes 19 against a rugged South Florida defense. He also 16 in a game early this season against Louisville's stout D. Cooper does plenty of his work from outside the arc and that could see him get plenty of scoring opportunities against a Carolina D that isn't always steady against the three. Cooper is also a good on-the-ball defender and could produce some turnovers and easy buckets against whomever is manning the point for UNC.

[EaglesPhan36]

South Region: Xavier +240 [0.5 unit]
Three things must happen for Xavier to be in position to win this game. #1, Kenny Frease must stay out of foul trouble and be productive. He's Xavier's biggest body. I think a double-double from him and the Muskies are one step in the right direction. #2, Baylor shoots around 40% or lower. Xavier allows a hair under 40% from the floor on the season. They were able to survive a 51% shooting night from Notre Dame in their opener and really clamped down on Lehigh who shot in the 30s about ten percent lower than they did against Duke. Baylor's losses this season were mostly attributed to nights when they were settling for tough shots and shoot in the 30s. Baylor's defense will be a key here as well. #3, Three point shots made need to be close to even. Xavier needs to make some threes. They are not a high volume three point shooting club, but Holloway, Lyons, Wells and Davis can stretch defenses. In Baylor's losses, they have struggled to can threes and have either been even or trailed in the number of threes made. That's the formula IMO. I think Frease is the one that's hard to know until the game is played. I think Xavier's D can do #2 & #3 to give them a shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Make it +250 on Xavier. Booked & cooked.

[Brian891]

ep i have unc ml to finish off a parlay. Even without marshall, which does totally change their offense, can u see them losing tonight?

[EaglesPhan36]

Not really. I think they would have to have a Michigan State worst performance of the year type game and I don't think Ohio defensively is going to stop Carolina's big boys from producing. They may not be as explosive without Marshall, but they should be able to pound Ohio inside if they stick to a game plan of doing so. I see Barnes, Henson and Zeller coming up big.

[EaglesPhan36]

[2nd Half] Ohio-North Carolina Over 73.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

South Region: Indiana F Christian Watford Total Points + Rebounds Over 18.5 [-130]
Watford's ability to drift outside and bang home threes makes him dangerous again. In his last two games vs. Kentucky, he's hit for 20 & 19 with 14 combined rebounds. Watford has only hit for 30 points in the two Hoosiers' NCAA games, but it could just be for a lack of opportunity as he is hitting over 50% from the field and is 6/8 from beyond the arc. He put up 15 shots against Kentucky in the regular season meeting and I'm looking at 12 being a key number for FGAs for Watford + getting to the line 4-6 times. If he can do both of those and grab around his average of 5-6 rebounds ... this should have a legit shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cooper sure was pathetic. 3/20. If the guy shoots 30%, the prop cashes. 30%


At least the 2nd halves have been running good this round.

[EaglesPhan36]

Watford prop cashes before half time, gotta love it.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAA [2nd Half] Indiana-Kentucky Over 80 [-110]

[dymd3z]

Very good friends with Watford...

[EaglesPhan36]

Props have been very good this round and the 2nd halves are 4-0 the last two nights. Crunch time and so far, so good.

[EaglesPhan36]

Postseason Record
Overall: 32-31 [+2.20]
WNCAA: 1-4 [-2.30]
2nd Halves: 17-16 [-0.50]

[5mike5]

hey 36, got any ncaa women picks to pad the account b4 the men tonight??

i was thinkin tennessee myself

[EaglesPhan36]

In tune with you my man. Was just about to post up that pick.

3.24.12

WNCAA: Tennessee -11 [-110]
Kansas has been one of the Cinderellas of the tournament by advancing to the Sweet 16 as an #11 seed. When you look at their body of work though, they have not matched up with the better teams they have played this season. Tennessee won't have the cozy confines of home to play at for this round, but the Lady Vols have been solid on the road against inferior opposition. I think their D is the difference. Kansas will have to force tempo to have a chance in this one and I don't think Tennessee will allow for that.

[5mike5]

In tune with you my man. Was just about to post up that pick.

3.24.12

WNCAA: Tennessee -11 [-110]
Kansas has been one of the Cinderellas of the tournament by advancing to the Sweet 16 as an #11 seed. When you look at their body of work though, they have not matched up with the better teams they have played this season. Tennessee won't have the cozy confines of home to play at for this round, but the Lady Vols have been solid on the road against inferior opposition. I think their D is the difference. Kansas will have to force tempo to have a chance in this one and I don't think Tennessee will allow for that.

yes sir...well were both on this 1 buddy

GOODLUCK to us

[EaglesPhan36]

No defense from Tennessee. Not looking good at the half.

[EPote14]

any thoughts on that next one the Baylor Georgia tech game? 17.5 is a lot of points even for Baylor

[5mike5]

No defense from Tennessee. Not looking good at the half.

i agree but could have been MUCH worse after being down 26-12 after 10 min...lol

least theres an outside chance still it covers

[EaglesPhan36]

If they can get ahead by the 10:00 mark, there'd be a shot.

Not sure I will play any other WNCAA games today, but St.John's +8 is one I liked. Duke was ridiculously good against Vanderbilt, but St.John's is a solid team that has beaten UConn and a couple other tourney teams.

[5mike5]

[QUOTE=EaglesPhan36;14227386]If they can get ahead by the 10:00 mark, there'd be a shot.

we DEFINATLEY have a shot at least now with a lead at 13min. mark

[5mike5]

UNBELIEVABLE up 10 with 7 min. left....

come on VOLS!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Gonna be close mike. They really started to roll in the 2nd when they quit jacking up threes.

[5mike5]

Gonna be close mike. They really started to roll in the 2nd when they quit jacking up threes.

come on ladies!!!!!

would be quite the miracle comeback to win by double digits( i took -10 @-130)

cant beleive im sweating a womens cbb game--lol

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't think 11 is going to happen. Not defending that last 3 was a killer. Not sure how they get that open when you know they're shooting threes.

[EaglesPhan36]

Whoa ho ho ... that 3 rimmed out. Push on 11. Could have won it if the chick made that layup at the other end, but gladly taking the push because that was about an inch from being a loss.

[5mike5]

Whoa ho ho ... that 3 rimmed out. Push on 11. Could have won it if the chick made that layup at the other end, but gladly taking the push because that was about an inch from being a loss.

hell yes phan36....i consider that win a miracle!!!

if that chick wouldnt have shot a 3 there and just took layup we both lose

[EPote14]

[5mike5]

i just got extra lucky taking @-10 (-130)...but a push there feels just the same....dominated the boards and won 2nd half by 16...

just amazing way to start the day

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah. They were in good position to cover, but I think they got a little loose when they got up by 15 or 16 and let KU get some easier looks that kept it around 10 or 11. Gonna think about that St.John's one this afternoon for a while and do some more research. Got to go look at the props for the men's Elite 8 and get that situated.

[5mike5]

Yeah. They were in good position to cover, but I think they got a little loose when they got up by 15 or 16 and let KU get some easier looks that kept it around 10 or 11. Gonna think about that St.John's one this afternoon for a while and do some more research. Got to go look at the props for the men's Elite 8 and get that situated.

alright bud ill check in later....i got to look at some props myself

goodluck buddy!!

[EaglesPhan36]

West Region: Florida C Erik Murphy Total Points + Rebounds Over 15.5 [-130]
I think Murphy has to play a big game today if Florida is going to have a chance to win. With his height and skill set as a three point shooter, he's going to be one of the toughest match-ups for Louisville. I would expect Behanan to be given the assigment to guard him mostly because I doubt the Cards want Dieng playing out on the perimeter to nullify his shot blocking ability. That gives Murphy a four inch height advantage over Behanan. Florida has urged him to keep shooting even though he's in a bit of a slump, just 4/18 from deep in the tournament. The one thing he has amped up is his rebounding. He only averaged about four per game in the regular season, but has eight and ten in the last two rounds as the Gators have looked to him for more of a physical presence defensively. Murphy took 13 shots against Marquette after taking nine vs. Norfolk State. I think the key numbers for me for Murphy are at least 30 minutes of PT and taking double digit shots. When he's taken at least ten shots, he's finished in double figures five of eight times.

East Region: Syracuse-Ohio State Total Made Three Point Shots Over 11.5 [-110]
I cannot see a reason not to try this one again with Syracuse playing today. The zone has been leaky and had all sorts of issues against Wisconsin, giving up 14 threes. Really only against a Kansas State team that doesn't shoot threes well [4/17] did the 2-3 really work well. They gave up nine makes to UNC-Asheville in the opener. Ohio State isn't going to overwhelm you with a high volume of threes, but the Buckeyes have ramped up their execution in the NCAAs. OSU is 22/55 from deep with at least eight makes in each of the last two rounds. They have also given up 17 threes in the last two rounds and as I pointed out in the last Orange game, Syracuse isn't a rhythm 3 point shooting team within the flow of their offense - so they will take and make their share. They are 11/18 over the last two games. I think if the Orange can get 5-6 threes from the likes of Jardine, Triche, Southerland, Joseph or Waiters ... Ohio State should have opportunities against the zone be it their guards or Sullinger and Thomas slinking outside to do the rest.