And Final Four weekend begins with a victory in the final minute, yes!
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Postseason Record
Overall: 38-40-1 [-1.10]
WNCAA: 2-8-1 [-4.90]
2nd Halves: 19-19 [-1.80]
All these lines are courtesy of Bovada because some of the props I list are pretty unique.
Kentucky C Anthony Davis Total Blocks [Final 4] vs. Regular Season Meeting +2 [-120]
So what you're playing here is Davis vs. his own stats from the regular season meeting with Louisville. In that game, Davis had six blocks. So to push on this wager, we're looking at needing four blocks to push and five to cash. The total blocks prop for the game has Davis @ 4.5 w/+100 on the Over which is nice but by paying 20 cents here, we can push with four blocks instead of losing on the total blocks prop. Given that Davis has had four blocks or better in 25 of Kentucky's 38 games, I feel good about getting at least a push here. Kentucky is likely to chase Louisville off the three point line, so hopefully that gives Davis plenty of chances to swat shots. I think he can play at least 30 minutes, this should have a legit shot.
Kentucky Total Three Point Shots Made Over 5.5 [-120]
Pitino is going to force Kentucky to make threes or at least I believe that is going to be the game plan with their zone defense. This was a decent game plan in the regular season meeting as UK hit just 3/16 from beyond the arc. The common perception is that Kentucky CAN'T shoot the three. Not true though based on them making almost 38% from beyond the arc this season. It's more that they are so efficient with their interior play and in getting to the basket, that they only take an average of 15 per game, making right around six per game. Those numbers are down even a bit more in the NCAAs to only about 12 attempts per game, while still making an average of 5.5. This will all be about the execution of Louisville's defense. If they perform the way they want, Kentucky should be left with some shots from deep. Lamb would be the key player here. He'll have to make multiple threes for this to have the best shot. Miller, Wiltjer, Jones, Teague and Kidd-Gilchrist can all help add to the tally - but Lamb is by far the best bomber on this club.Comment -
Kansas SG Elijah Johnson Total Points Over 10.5 [-130]
For me, Johnson is the X-factor for KU today. They need Taylor to have a solid game at the point and Robinson must equal or exceed Sullinger, but Johnson is one of those guys who stretch the defense and hit a big shot. Johnson has scored in double figures in each of KU's four NCAA games with 10 being his low output last round against UNC. He has taken at least eight shots in all four games with two of those seeing him take double digit shots from the floor. That's a key number for me here. When he takes double digit FGAs, he has scored eleven or more in nine of eleven games. He's mainly a three point shooter with more than half his FGAs coming from three. If he's hitting threes, then KU has every chance to win this game.
Kansas +140
Less talent. Bad shooting. That's what everyone sees with the Jayhawks. And truly, they have not been in great form - but they still got to the Final Four where many people did not see this year's club having a shot in hell of making when the year began. KU has been able to win with defense and gritty, gutsy performances at the end of games. This will be the best team they have faced in Ohio State. Certainly the regular season game is all but thrown out the window since it didn't involve Sullinger, but it will still give KU some shine as they scored 78 points on the Buckeyes with good play, inside and out. Keys for me in this one are simple and three fold:
1. Tyshawn Taylor MUST have a solid game. Under 6 turnovers. Close to or over 20 points. And hitting a fukking three pointer early might really get him revved up.
2. Who stays out of foul trouble: Robinson or Sullinger or both? Both teams have proven they can function without their stud, but both offenses are obviously much more fluid with them in the lineup. By hook or crook, Sullinger just always seems to find himself on the wrong side here. Twice in the tourney, he's been forced to play just 26 minutes due to foul problems. Robinson has mainly steered clear which has allowed him to play better than 32 minutes in their last three games. You'd love to see both guys allowed to play MAX minutes, but likely the refs influence the game for one of these guys.
3. Outside shooting. Neither team is a volume three point shooting club. Kansas has struggled mightily from beyond the arc in the tournament and Ohio State hasn't had to take a lot of threes. Still, you get the feeling that the team that is able to find some success from the land of plenty is going to have an edge. KU has defended the arc a bit better, but obviously not shot the ball as well - so it could be a wash, but bears watching.
If Kansas wins two of those three things, I think they are playing for the Championship on Monday.Comment -
NCAA [2nd Half] Louisville-Kentucky Over 72.5 [-110]Comment -
im on kansas ML +140 with ya 36
GLComment -
This 2nd half isn't going to make it. Too many missed FTs from Kentucky and FGs from Louisville. Hoping Richard fouls to the end.Comment -
Davis credited with block #5 ... so at least I hit one prop and won't go home empty handed for the 1st game.Comment -
2nd half over may have found a way to make it ... but fukking Siva is walking the ball up and dribbling around like there's 3:00 left when there is under :30. Dipshit.Comment -
Had to fade that one!Comment -
The Louisville 5:00 drought didn't even totally kill that, but Kentucky missing FTs sure did! Oh well, it is what it is. Rock Chalk Jayhawk.Comment -
The KU wins tonight are probably the sweetest of my gambling career. I'm a KU fan and to not only win both bets but to see them win as well ... I cannot think of a better night. Elijah Johnson baby!Comment -
Almost tailed the Elijah prop. If I did I woulda been 4-0 just alone on the Kansas game! Good hit! Great Night! I Hit Kansas ML, Kansas +3, Kansas 2H -1.5 (doubled on this one)Comment -
Have not decided if I am going to donate with the ladies games or not. Been getting my ass kicked there this year and just sniffing positive units however small they are with the National Championship tomorrow might keep me from playing any, but I am still going to look.
Postseason Record
Overall: 41-42-1 [+0.10]
WNCAA: 2-8-1 [-4.90]
2nd Halves: 19-20 [-2.90]Comment -
I'm still in the process of finalizing my prop picks, etc for tonight - but collecting my thoughts with this write-up. Hope it's helpful to anyone who cares.
National Championship Game Breakdown
Point Guard
One would think this is an area where Kansas should have an advantage with the experience of Tyshawn Taylor against Marquis Teague. But looking at how Taylor has played for most of the tournament, this match-up looks more even to me. Both players struggled in the early season meeting - Teague with too many turnovers and Taylor with too many missed shots. Teague was a major scoring factor early in the NCAAs with three straight double digit scoring games, highlighted by 24 against Iowa State. In the Regionals, his scoring subsided with eight in each of the last two rounds. He has eight assists and six turnovers in the last two rounds, not exactly big numbers. Taylor's shooting woes have been well documented. 0-for-the-tournament from three [0/20]. He had one big scoring game against North Carolina with 20 and I thought despite a poor shooting night against Ohio State, he did a good job running the show with nine assists against five turnovers. I think importantly Taylor helped bottle Craft up and did not allow him to get the ball into great positioning for his shooters/big men. For me in this match-up, both coaches likely are asking the same thing of their PGs. Keep your turnovers low, take your shots at driving to the hoop or in transition when they are there and play solid defense. I think for KU to succeed, Taylor needs to have four turnovers or less and MUST provide them with double digit points. They need his offense, be it from free throws, jumpers or drives. I also think the under rated aspect of this match-up tonight is going to be defense. A lot is made of Taylor's offensive issues, but he has been a solid defender and could do a lot to help KU stop Kentucky from getting the ball where they want if he disrupts Teague.
Shooting Guard
This is a match-up of two quiet assassins. There's not much to not like about Elijah Johnson and Doron Lamb. They mirror each other as the biggest deep threat on their squad. Lamb is certainly a more consistent three point threat, but Johnson seems to have that big shot/big moment edge to him in the tournament. His stats aren't "sexy" but his 10-12 points have often come in key situations. Lamb had 17 against KU in the 1st meeting and has quietly had a solid tournament with double digits in each game. He's a guy who could easily command the ball more, but seems content with getting the big guys involved and taking his shots when they present themselves without forcing it. Keep an eye on these two guys tonight, one of them just might make the biggest shot of the night. I see this match-up dead even, but as one that may swing the outcome of the game.
Small Forward
Travis Releford is a third guard technically, but still has some size at 6'6". He is giving up over 20 pounds to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and this is a match-up that I would be extremely surprised to see Kentucky NOT exploit. Releford shouldn't be written off here as he provided KU with some huge points [15] against Ohio State. He's not a great three point shooter, but he can make an open shot and is quick in transition. That's really a valid description for MKG. The problem for Kidd-Gilchrist seems two-fold, keeping out of foul trouble and finding touches early. He had two early fouls against Louisville that rendered him ineffective until near the end of the game when his explosiveness saw him score several quick buckets. He fouled out against Baylor the round before, but had 19 points. This is a guy who should be taking the ball to the rack any time he gets it or pounding his defender in the post to exploit his bulk advantage over a guy like Releford or a Kevin Young who figures to see time on him off the bench. MKG has had some monster games this season and I think the transition game is a key for him as well as starting him early. This is a guy I feel can be the impact player of the game if Kentucky wants him to be.
Power Forward
This is technically Thomas Robinson and Terrence Jones, but you can easily also involve Withey and Anthony Davis into the mix as we should see all four probably being mixed and matched tonight. Let's focus on where the match-ups should start though with Robinson and Jones. Jones definitely has the bulk to match Robinson and I am expecting his role tonight to primarily be that of defender and rebounder. Any points he provides is a bonus. Robinson is the cog that makes KU go, plain and simple. He must avoid foul trouble or Kansas has little to no shot. Kansas can function without him, but with their offense struggling to find scoring opportunities - Robinson is really the guy who the ball has to flow through. He had a terrible game against Kentucky the 1st time and has admitted trying to do too much by himself. I think a key for him is to be prepared to find the open man when a second defender comes to help on him [if it happens]. If he makes quick and accurate decisions, Kansas gets easy opportunities.
Center
Anthony Davis has shown exactly why he is the National Player of the Year in the tournament. Offense. Rebounding. Shot Blocking. He's got it all. Jeff Withey isn't flashy, but he's got great timing as a shot blocker and one of the things he can provide tonight is offensive rebounding. Kentucky was victimized by offensive rebounds against Louisville and you can bet that is a key point for KU tonight. Withey is a good free throw shooter, so if he can crash the boards and get second opportunities, Kansas will take that all night long. Davis is going to get his points, but Withey isn't going to get pushed around because he has the size to stay with Davis. Quickness is Davis' advantage, so you may see him taking Withey away from the basket from time-to-time to exploit that. Blocked shots for both is a big area to watch tonight. Davis may see some time on Robinson, but likely not much unless fouls dictate it. That should leave him to once again serve as the best help defender and erase with his shot blocking. He had 7 blocks against KU in the 1st meeting and is likely to get a handful again tonight. I think a major key for Kansas is to keep Withey out of foul trouble. He has to know when to let Davis go and not pick up a stupid foul. KU just has no one else to help if Withey or Robinson gets into foul difficulty.
So what do we have?
PG: Even
SG: Even
SF: Kentucky
PF: Kansas
C: Kentucky
What could be the supreme X-factor? COACHING. He may not act it, but you know the quest to get a National Title is eating John Calipari up and I think there is a lot of pressure on him to get it done. Kansas? They're not supposed to be here. So Bill Self can let it all hang loose and he's not going to get hounded regardless of the outcome. A troubling sign for me too if I am a Kentucky fan has been the missed FTs in the last two games. UK has missed 23 FTs in the two games following their incredible 35/37 night from the line against Indiana. Kansas isn't a great free throw shooting team either, so this is a situation that bares watching - UK should have the edge there, but how many times have we seen pressure get to the better team?Comment -
great write up. love Elijah's big shots. no big man depth on either squad, let's see which team tries to force it inside too much to draw fouls and subsequently turns the ball over more (inevitable). normally would jump on Cats inability to hit free throws but Kansas hasn't been much better in the tournament.Comment -
great write up EP, love me small ML on Kansas, it's the last fvcking game, Im gonna be a homer here
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National Championship Game Picks
#1: Kentucky SG Doron Lamb Total Points Over 13.5 [-130]
I firmly believe that either/maybe both Elijah Johnson and Doron Lamb are going to come up large this evening. Lamb hasn't had to be a volume shooter by any means, but still leads the Kentucky squad in scoring in the NCAAs. His ten point output against Louisville was his low for the tournament. Before that, he had at least 14 in all their previous games. The key # for me is Lamb getting double digit shot attempts. Outlined it a couple rounds ago, when he gets double digit FGAs, he has scored 14 or more in 14 of 15 games. He hurt KU from deep in their 1st meeting with three three pointers and 17 points. If he gets to the FT line, then this becomes a really good shot.
#2. Kansas C Jeff Withey Total Blocks Over 3.5 [-120]
Withey is the "other" shot blocker in tonight's match-up, but he might be nearly as good as the more publicized Anthony Davis. Sure, he's not as athletic, but he's got superb timing. Withey had four blocks in the 1st meeting in just 25 minutes and I think as long as he steers clear of foul difficulty, he should be playing over 30 minutes. He's done that in two of KU's last three. Not surprisingly, that resulted in two gaudy shot blocking nights with seven against Ohio State and ten against N.C. State. Withey has amassed at least four blocks in 16 games this season. Five of those have come in the Jayhawks' last seven games. Let's hope the refs let both Withey and Davis do their thing tonight so we can enjoy the block party.
#3: Kansas +7 [-115]
I outlined above my thoughts on the position-by-position battle. You read everywhere and it sounds like Kansas should just stay at their hotel tonight and let Kentucky have a two hour party to celebrate their title. They're not as athletic. They haven't shot well. Kentucky has more NBA prospects. Maybe Kansas has no business being here, but the simple fact is they are here. I think several things have to go their way for them to stick in this game. First, Tyshawn Taylor has to pull his head out of his ass and have more great moments than WTF moments. Does that mean 25 points? Not necessarily. I think 15-20 from him with a solid assist-turnover ratio in favor of the assists would put KU in good position. Second, rebounding. KU stuck with Kentucky on the boards in the 1st meeting. 34-33 in favor of Kentucky. They must secure the boards and keep Kentucky off the offensive glass and they also need to clean up their own misses with some offensive boards. Louisville killed UK on the offensive glass and that is something you have to do because you're going to miss some shots against this defense. Thirdly, make some jump shots. You can't beat UK without making some outside shots. Elijah Johnson, Teahan, Taylor and Releford have to hit some big time shots. Finally, find transition opportunities/force turnovers and convert. KU has speed to burn and athletes who excel in transition. You avoid Kentucky's half court defense and give yourself easier chances.
I'm also playing the KU moneyline small on the side @ +270 just because I believe in the possibility.
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These will be my final bets of the season. Nothing at half time as I expect to be wastoid. Even my dog is on the Jayhawks tonight baby. Rock Chalk Jayhawk .. been a great ride regardless.
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Damn near got the sweep with KU falling short on the cover. Both props hit though and finished in the black.Comment -
Little shaky at times, but the end game was a little profit. See ya next season.
Postseason Record
Overall: 43-43-1 [+0.95]
WNCAA: 2-8-1 [-4.90]
2nd Halves: 19-20 [-2.90]Comment -
Nice hit on those props man! Tailed!Comment
