Pomeroy Plays

cobeez · 12-09-10, 02:05 PM

I like Gtown too. Would like to get some more thoughts on it too.

pickempete · 12-09-10, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by TrapperDapper

The math is way to hard to do if you didn't go to college for it. I took a look at it and there were many foreign things.

Hey TrapperDapper, I'm a fuking high school drop out, sorry the math was wrong, you probably never make a mistake, I don't need your fuking sarcasm.
If this is all you have to contribute, STFU

Boogy · 12-09-10, 04:36 PM

Hey Pickem, I may be wrong but I think Trapper was reffering to the calculations that are used for the KenPom calculations.

eatdust11 · 12-09-10, 04:43 PM

Nice thread you have going here.. it's amazing how most of the lines open almost right on KenPom's numbers.

Romanov · 12-09-10, 04:47 PM

Is it acceptable to buy Ohio St. down to 3 pt dif? So from 26.5 to minus 25? That would qualify

Gordon Gekko14 · 12-09-10, 05:22 PM

EaglesPhan36 · 12-09-10, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by Romanov

Is it acceptable to buy Ohio St. down to 3 pt dif? So from 26.5 to minus 25? That would qualify

I wouldn't advise buying any points if you're trying to use this formula for plays.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-10-10, 09:16 AM

12.10.10

Santa Clara +4 [KP +1]

Romanov · 12-10-10, 09:31 AM

I had a little luck and went with IUPUI

Btw, at my book, and most books right now, Santa Clara is available only at +3.5

EaglesPhan36 · 12-10-10, 10:35 AM

Still fits. BetPhoenix has it +4.

Balco10 · 12-10-10, 11:13 AM

No way San Jose is clearly the better team here!
Vegas is way off on this line.

Romanov · 12-10-10, 11:14 AM

thoughts on iowa v iowa st under 141? ken pom total is 133

zanman822 · 12-10-10, 11:59 AM

Eagles is that the only college game for today?

EaglesPhan36 · 12-10-10, 12:38 PM

Yep. Light slate of games again. Tomorrow will be a big day I am sure. The formula has been averaging I think 12-14 plays on Saturdays. With only Army-Navy in football, college hoops is going to get pounded.

DuncHen22 · 12-10-10, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by Romanov

thoughts on iowa v iowa st under 141? ken pom total is 133

Line has gone up from 137.5. I wouldn't touch the under.

Bando · 12-10-10, 04:06 PM

Had good success in the past until about the last week of january doing this - then HC, intangibles, 2nd meeting, and etc seem to favor the linesmakers take over kenpoms. I learned that the hard way 2 years ago. One other wrinkle I have used was to ALSO look at sagarin elo chess. If the game on Kenpom was over a 40% chance for a win for the dog, and the elo chess was higher - that was (until late January) hitting quite well, identifying live dogs.

GL guys!

Balco10 · 12-10-10, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by Balco10

No way San Jose is clearly the better team here!
Vegas is way off on this line.

SJ now -2...I bit my tongue off!

EaglesPhan36 · 12-10-10, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by Bando

Had good success in the past until about the last week of january doing this - then HC, intangibles, 2nd meeting, and etc seem to favor the linesmakers take over kenpoms. I learned that the hard way 2 years ago. One other wrinkle I have used was to ALSO look at sagarin elo chess. If the game on Kenpom was over a 40% chance for a win for the dog, and the elo chess was higher - that was (until late January) hitting quite well, identifying live dogs. GL guys!

One thing I brought up a few days ago was adjustments that might be needed when conference play begins. That will be the time to really watch & make sure you manage your money correctly or bail if the formula is no good at that point. But we've got almost a month left until the full conference swing begins.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-11-10, 01:01 AM

RECORD: 57-42 [57%]+12.90 units

Straight-up win for Santa Clara. Will be up relatively early tomorrow, so I should have all the games up that are available.

beefcake · 12-11-10, 09:08 AM

Nice hit on Santa!

killawookie · 12-11-10, 10:06 AM

Damn i missed it

EaglesPhan36 · 12-11-10, 10:25 AM

12.11.10

Wisconsin-Green Bay +5 [KP +2]
Loyola (Chicago) +8.5 [KP +6]
Kansas -22 [KP -25]
LSU -12 [KP -15]
Pepperdine +2 [KP -1]
Charlotte +9 [KP +6]

16johnnymac · 12-11-10, 10:45 AM

what is your thought on the Duke game -26

WIZARDOFBEANTOWN · 12-11-10, 10:49 AM

good luck buddy!

EaglesPhan36 · 12-11-10, 11:08 AM

Duke game doesn't fit the formula. My personal opinion though is that they have a chance to cover even on the big number. I don't think St.Louis has played a true road game and Duke showed against Bradley that they can beat lesser teams with ease without Irving running the show.

DuncHen22 · 12-11-10, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

12.11.10

Charlotte +6 [KP +6]

I think you mean Charlotte +9

gummo · 12-11-10, 02:11 PM

I've got Wisconsin +2 where he has them -1

DuncHen22 · 12-11-10, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by gummo

I've got Wisconsin +2 where he has them -1

The line is moving the wrong way on that one. It was +1 and it's moved away from KP, which is usually a bad sign.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-11-10, 02:56 PM

Yeah Charlotte +9, thanks for the correction. As I've said before, once the lines start moving anything that "moves" into the formula is not advisable generally as I have tried to stay steady on looking at the lines at the same time on each day whenever possible. If it didn't fit into the formula when I posted the ones that did this morning, it's your call on playing it or not - but for our purposes here, I don't add them in.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-12-10, 12:40 PM

12.12.10

Penn State +8 [KP +5]
FIU +3.5 [KP +1]
Boise State -4.5 [KP -7]
Ohio State -26.5 [KP -31]

EaglesPhan36 · 12-12-10, 12:44 PM

RECORD: 58-46-1+9.70 units

1-4-1 yesterday. Most of those picks that fit into the formula saw bad second halves put those teams away.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-12-10, 03:01 PM

Bad beat on Penn State. Battle missed an easy shot with under :20 that would have made it a 7 point game and probably let Va.Tech run the clock out. Instead, wound up fouling down the stretch and missed a 3 at the buzzer to lose by 10.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-12-10, 03:49 PM

Jesus H. Even worse beat on Ohio State. They're up 31 with about a minute left and don't score again, win by 25. No cover. Looking like a frustrating day.

ScreaminPain · 12-12-10, 04:29 PM

Of course, there will be a few "bad beats", but Pomeroy is solid and his numbers will hold up through out the season.

I've also begun charting Statfox and Sagarin. They have A LOT more plays but I"m not sure if they will have anything close to the winning % Pomeroy has.

I"m using 3.01 pt's difference for both, plus what Sagarin and Statfox use for HCA. Yesterday Sagarin had 19 plays (5 away team, 14 home), Statfox had 13 plays (7 away, 6 home). Sagarin ended up with 9 Wins 10 loses. Statfox had 8 Wins and 5 Loses.

One interesting aspect.....On only 1 game did all three have a play on the same team....Oakland +11 vs. Michigan st. and that was a Winner. I'll play with this for awhile and post again if anything promising develops.

Best of luck with your action...

Salmon Steak · 12-12-10, 11:16 PM

seems like ken is on the right side mostly but not fast money. About 55% or so through 100ish plays.