Pomeroy Plays

[TonyP]

Thanks Wiggums

[Hanger]

Hey Eagles Phan. Appreciate the work you are doing here. I'm taking some of your ideas and trying to incorporate them into the system I am currently using. I have a question though. Using your 2.5 window the system is pretty strict plays, which is great for money management. My question is-are you noticing a sizable increase in winning % incorporating your 2.5 point window from pom play scores and the spread compared to just taking the margin of victory he gives minus the spread without the window of 2.5?

Also have you ever considered incorporating only games with a thrill factor of say less than 70%?

Thanks for any insight.

[ghost xx]

I am not able to transfer points.
Is it my computer?

[EaglesPhan36]

Hey Eagles Phan. Appreciate the work you are doing here. I'm taking some of your ideas and trying to incorporate them into the system I am currently using. I have a question though. Using your 2.5 window the system is pretty strict plays, which is great for money management. My question is-are you noticing a sizable increase in winning % incorporating your 2.5 point window from pom play scores and the spread compared to just taking the margin of victory he gives minus the spread without the window of 2.5? Also have you ever considered incorporating only games with a thrill factor of say less than 70%? Thanks for any insight.

Thrill score I don't think has anything to do with this formula we're tracking here. From what I understand, the thrill score has to do more with how entertaining/watchable a game is than anything related to the outcome necessarily. Honestly, I have not tracked straight up just the KenPom predictions without the spread .. so I can't answer that.

[Hanger]

Thanks Eagles Phan. My thought process with the thrill factor was the lower the thrill factor the less close the game will be. It is probably round about thinking, but have been brainstorming this morning!

[Boogy]

Not sure if this fits in your formula but I also have:
Long Beach St +13 [KP+10]
Syracuse +3.5 [KP +1]

[dogman]

Boogy, those would be plays also. So many people playing this method could have different records depending on when you play the games. Based only on the opening numbers from yesterday there was only 1 play, East Carolina +7, this morning there were the two plays Eagles listed, now as of now there are 4 plays. I like to play only the openers numbers as I feel most of the spreads gravitate towards the POM prediction but today the two games you listed are moving away from the POM prediction.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think the only thing to do if you want to follow this formula is to stay consistent with the time you get your lines and compare to the Pomeroy scorelines. For me during the week, that is just after 9am ET more often than not. Lines can move all over the place during the day and take something from a play to a "no play" or vice-versa.

In the end, it's player's choice ... that's why I put these up to let everyone see what fails into the criteria and then you craft your plays off of them. Hopefully it's all useful!

[EaglesPhan36]

12.7.10
East Carolina +6.5 [KP +4]
Purdue -7 [KP -10]

Long Beach State +13.5 [KP -10]

Sorry this one snuck in on me. Did not see the line posted earlier.

[EaglesPhan36]

RECORD: 54-40 [57%]+12.00 units

12.8.10
Air Force +7 [KP +4]
Drake +1.5 [KP -1]
Arizona -27.5 [KP -35]
Denver +21 [KP +18]
Maryland -30.5 [KP -34]

Highlighted Arizona because it does meet the +/- 2.5 point differential, but the 7.5 differential is above the 5/5.5 point max that we set, but in the end, it's player's choice as usual ... so do what you will with the info! Good luck today. Will try to check back this morning on any additional lines to get them early for comparison.

[jscol]

does anyone know how he calculates his predictions?

[GoggsViggs]

Thx bro

[EaglesPhan36]

does anyone know how he calculates his predictions?

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/ratings_explanation/

That explains most of what he uses in making his formulas. You might want to get a math major to sit in when you read it ... it's difficult for people like me to understand.

[homerbush]

Maybe this has been answered but do we have any data around is this method more valuable in certain point spread areas. I know we look at difference but maybe this method has x percentage winning of spreads 0-5, 6-10, 11-15, etc. Just an idea I am throwing out there. Also, is it better when it leans towards the favorite or the underdog?

[EaglesPhan36]

Have not looked at it that much in-depth. I don't think favorites or dogs have covered consistently better than the other.

[Boogy]

Thanks for the plays today Eagles!!

[JFCvsRXB]

Air Force +8 now at 5dimes

[jscol]

Have not looked at it that much in-depth. I don't think favorites or dogs have covered consistently better than the other.

Do you have every game tracked that has been in the system? I would take a look and see if there is anything worthwhile.

[EaglesPhan36]

I have all the picks that fit the formula in this thread. You'd have to go back and look at them and the results. I update the record every day, but don't have the exact game scores anywhere in this thread.

[btd]

BOL with your picks tonite, may tail 1or2

[Brian891]

Thanks for all your excellent work on this site Eagles. Any personal leans on unc game tonight?

[EaglesPhan36]

I like the Heels, but I'm still weary of laying almost double digits with them.

[beefcake]

Great stuff so far EP...Cant wait to tennis season

[MUHerd37]

Great stuff so far EP...Cant wait to tennis season

Only 3 weeks away!!!
Nice job with this EP!

[EaglesPhan36]

RECORD: 56-42 [57%]+11.90 units

Further proof again with Arizona yesterday that when the differential gets above 5/5.5 ... the outcome rarely goes in favor of this formula. Of the few lines posted for today's very light schedule, nothing falls in line with the KenPom formula thus far. Will check back for any other lines that get posted.

[dogman]

Eagles, you're right on Arizona, it's funny but you would think just the opposite, the bigger diff between his line and offshore should be a bigger edge but not so. I listed it a loser in my thread, maybe I should throw out the ones that have a point diff. of 6 or more or even 5.5 or more.

I would like to narrow it down so maybe a point diff.between 2.5 and 5.0 looks about right. Of couse I am playing just opening numbers so let's see how it turns out.

[DuncHen22]

I think the only thing to do if you want to follow this formula is to stay consistent with the time you get your lines and compare to the Pomeroy scorelines. For me during the week, that is just after 9am ET more often than not. Lines can move all over the place during the day and take something from a play to a "no play" or vice-versa.

In the end, it's player's choice ... that's why I put these up to let everyone see what fails into the criteria and then you craft your plays off of them. Hopefully it's all useful!

I actually just read in the "Conquering Risk" book that the best way to see if a system works is how close your prediction is to the final line, NOT the final score. It sounds weird but it's tested and true. Sports betting is an efficient market and generally adjusts for any inefficiencies. This is why the earlier you can jump on a bad line the better. If you see lines moving toward your prediction, it's probably a good prediction. If it's moving away, best chances are your prediction is wrong (unless someone is messing with the line). The only problem is you can never know which way a line will move.

[EaglesPhan36]

Good point Dunc. That proved right on Air Force which ran out to +8, away from the KP number of +4 and they got smoked.

[DuncHen22]

Eagles, you're right on Arizona, it's funny but you would think just the opposite, the bigger diff between his line and offshore should be a bigger edge but not so. I listed it a loser in my thread, maybe I should throw out the ones that have a point diff. of 6 or more or even 5.5 or more.

I would like to narrow it down so maybe a point diff.between 2.5 and 5.0 looks about right. Of couse I am playing just opening numbers so let's see how it turns out.

Yeah I think once the difference gets too high, you just have to assume the books know something Ken Pom doesn't. Anyone know how fading these plays would work? Or is there just no edge either way?

[pickempete]

Don't know if you guys have been looking at over/unders, but have been doing good if the lines are 5 or more than the line, but you have to get them early.
Tonite Ohio St. is at 128 and KP has 138 points scored. Good luck to everyone.

[DuncHen22]

Don't know if you guys have been looking at over/unders, but have been doing good if the lines are 5 or more than the line, but you have to get them early.
Tonite Ohio St. is at 128 and KP has 138 points scored. Good luck to everyone.

I think you did the math wrong there. KP has a final score of 78-50. 78+50=128

[pickempete]

dunchen, good catch, I must of add to fast in my head. Sorry about that, it is 128, but you do get differences of 10 or more on a big card. Good thing we have people paying attention here.

[TrapperDapper]

The math is way to hard to do if you didn't go to college for it. I took a look at it and there were many foreign things.

[Dwell]

I think you guys missed Seton Hall yesterday. Would have been a loss.

[nikevols]

Liking GTown today..your thoughts?