Pomeroy Plays

[steve227]

Thanks for the work bro

[EaglesPhan36]

How do u feel about UAB EP? DO u think they win? Love getting ur input.

I think I might take GW and the points there, but I don't see a big edge on either side. I'm personally about to pound the OVER 61 in the 1st half of Penn State-IU which means it should end exactly on 60.

[Aussiecapper101]

I think I might take GW and the points there, but I don't see a big edge on either side. I'm personally about to pound the OVER 61 in the 1st half of Penn State-IU which means it should end exactly on 60.

almost (59) and very unlucky not to cash

[EaglesPhan36]

That was horrible, but that's what happens when it's all jump shots. Hot then cold as ice.

[Aussiecapper101]

That was horrible, but that's what happens when it's all jump shots. Hot then cold as ice.

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 80-64-4 [+12.75 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 3-0 [+3.00 units]

Big faves all cashed today. Good re-start.

[EaglesPhan36]

12.28.10

Wisconsin -7.5 [KP -10]
Cincinnati -16 [KP -19]
Ball State +6 [KP +3]
Syracuse -13 [KP -16]
UC-Irvine -10.5 [KP -14]
Yale +12.5 [KP +10]
Kent State +4.5 [KP +2]

[cobeez]

Thanks again for doing this.

[LockPickMaster]

12.28.10

Wisconsin -7.5 [KP -10]
Cincinnati -16 [KP -19]
Ball State +6 [KP +3]
Syracuse -13 [KP -16]
UC-Irvine -10.5 [KP -14]
Yale +12.5 [KP +10]
Kent State +4.5 [KP +2]

Does a Pomeroy play have to be in the 90% chance of winning for it to be a play?
How do you pick which games are in play?

[OnlyMayo]

Does a Pomeroy play have to be in the 90% chance of winning for it to be a play?
How do you pick which games are in play?

I was wondering the same thing this morning. There are plenty games that fall into the bet criteria, but aren't 90% or more...I'm on the Cincinnati and Syracuse games; they are both over 90% anyways...GL

"How do you pick which games are in play?" - Refer to the first page and he explains what games to play. I was just unsure about if it also had to be 90% or not also.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah the percentage has nothing to do with the formula.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

good luck buddy!

[Axis]

I was using KP a little bit the passed couple years and found similar findings to what you are...the bigger the difference in spread, the less it hit...but I never tracked the stats on it because I just stopped playing those games in generall...would be curious to see how the reverse plays end up b/c it could easily be 60-40...b/c I remember losing on them haha...

Good work!

[ScreaminPain]

Keep it up, "phan"......

FYI, I track Sagarin and Statfox. For approx. the same time period you've been posting this thread, Sagarin has gone 55-50 (52.4%) and Statfox has gone 30-27 (52.6%). Even though Pomeroy's figures have not been "barn burners", he is still better off than some others.

Good Luck on your action...

[OnlyMayo]

12.28.10

Wisconsin -7.5 [KP -10]
Cincinnati -16 [KP -19]
Ball State +6 [KP +3]
Syracuse -13 [KP -16]
UC-Irvine -10.5 [KP -14]
Yale +12.5 [KP +10]
Kent State +4.5 [KP +2]

What about Drexel -16.5 [KP -19]

[EaglesPhan36]

I only put in the picks that fit the formula at the time I am looking at the lines, which I try to stay consistent at during the week - early in the AM. This also keeps the line closer to the opening number which I think is the number that meshed into this formula to start with. Line movement after that is a variable that I'm not including. Drexel I think was -17 when I looked at it and opened at -17.5.

[LockPickMaster]

12.28.10

Wisconsin -7.5 [KP -10]
Cincinnati -16 [KP -19]
Ball State +6 [KP +3]
Syracuse -13 [KP -16]
UC-Irvine -10.5 [KP -14]
Yale +12.5 [KP +10]
Kent State +4.5 [KP +2]

How many winners

[OnlyMayo]

How many winners

These went 1-5-1 tonight....

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 81-69-5 [+8.50 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 3-0 [+3.00 units]

12.29.10

LaSalle -12.5 [KP -16]
Drake +1.5 [KP -1]
Missouri State +3 [KP -1]
New Mexico State +1.5 [KP -1]
Washington State +2 [KP -1]
Duke -33.5 [KP -38]
Tennessee -27.5 [KP -32]
N.Colorado +1 [KP -2]

[EaglesPhan36]

Better start tonight. 3-2 so far with three plays left.

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 86-72-5 [+10.40 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 3-0 [+3.00 units]

12.30.10

BYU -11.5 [KP -15]
Iowa State +1.5 [KP -3]
Long Beach State -2 [KP -5]

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 88-73-5 [+11.35 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 3-0 [+3.00 units]

12.31.10

Washington -3 [KP -7]
Georgia -16.5 [KP -19]
Northern Arizona -1 [KP -4]
Northern Colorado -4 [KP -8]

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 89-76-5 [+9.10 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 3-0 [+3.00 units]

Was no chance I was gonna be up this morning to post this. Happy New Year. Hopefully will get the Sunday choices up and hope 2011 keeps this in the black!

[EaglesPhan36]

1.2.11

Gonzaga -10 [KP -13]
FIU +2 [KP -1]
Duke -18.5 [KP -22]
Arizona -10 [KP -13]
Tennessee State +16.5 [KP +13]
Charleston +3 [KP -1]

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 91-79-6 [+8.05 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 3-0 [+3.00 units]

1.3.11

UNC-Wilmington +2 [KP -2]
Kentucky -24 [KP -27]
Butler -10.5 [KP -14]
Toledo +25 [KP +22]
Florida -10.5 [KP -13]
Rider -19 [KP -22]

REVERSE PLAYS
Northern Illinois +20

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 93-82-7 [+6.90 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-0 [+4.00 units]

Brutal push on Kentucky after they went up 26 and then gave up a layup in 5 seconds. Reverse play continues to be solid so far. Also noticing that this formula seems to hit a good amount of the short dogs straight up, just something to note.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.4.11

Indiana +10 [KP +6]
Baylor -19 [KP -24]

REVERSE PLAY
Colgate +27.5

[Brian891]

Lets keep it going colgate!

[DaOutlaw1x]

Can't find Colgate on bookmaker or Bodog will they post later or am I just out on that play.

[EaglesPhan36]

It's on 5Dimes under their College Extra. Chance it could be posted on the other books at some point, but I don't know for certain. It's an 8.5 pt. differential though, so it's definitely well within the confines of the reverse play.

[Brp27345]

just out of curiosity where do u find a line on the Colgate game... thanks in advance!

[Brp27345]

nvm... answered the question already... lol

[EaglesPhan36]

This will be a big test for the reverse plays because Colgate has been f-ing awful.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

good luck today ep

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

congrats on our teams in the nfl going to the playoffs see ya in the superbowl?