Pomeroy Plays

DuncHen22 · 12-13-10, 12:54 AM

Yeah, I wouldn't worry about it. I still have faith in this system. We'll get it back in the long run!

EaglesPhan36 · 12-13-10, 01:42 AM

RECORD: 58-50-1+5.50 units

Yeah a bad weekend for these plays, but there's going to be times like this just like when you make your own bets and you get into bad streaks. Today easily could have gone 2-2 with a little more luck. Yeah right now it's at about 54% on getting winners. I think anything 55% or better is solid. We'll see how it continues to go, considering the record was 51-38 to start the week and 8 of the 12 losses this week came in the last two days ... it was in pretty good shape still for most of the week.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-13-10, 09:51 AM

12.13.10

Oregon -15.5 [KP -18]

cobeez · 12-13-10, 01:50 PM

Luckily I was out of town and unable to play these plays over the weekend. New week let's get it.

I'mAWinner · 12-13-10, 02:08 PM

I've been tracking what you've been doing. Awsome job ! Like you said 55%, your makin money. Good luck buddy.

beefcake · 12-13-10, 04:55 PM

Still a good job overall and profitable..

Phillth · 12-13-10, 06:21 PM

Nice. I got Ducks -9 in a teaser

EaglesPhan36 · 12-13-10, 11:50 PM

Good start, cover and KenPom on the money at -18.

beefcake · 12-14-10, 12:13 AM

Slim pickens again tommorrow

EaglesPhan36 · 12-14-10, 09:20 AM

RECORD: 59-50-1+6.50 units

There are no plays today. St,Mary's is a six point differential, so that's your choice if you want to play but we've been cutting off the plays at 5.5 point differentials.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-14-10, 12:11 PM

In fact, the more I think about it, I think I am going to start tracking the picks that are more than 5.5 point differential plays where you take the OPPOSITE of what KenPom predicts. Noticed in most cases that when they fall into bigger point differentials than the 2.5-5.5 ... the KenPom predictions have been wrong more than right. I'll term these REVERSE plays and list them in red for clarity when any fall into this category. So let's try tonight.

12.14.10
REVERSE PLAY
Cal-Riverside +25

Tennessee -11 [KP -15]

Since this is in the early tracking stages, you may want to wait and see how this goes.

TxBulldog · 12-14-10, 01:12 PM

Danger Will Robinson, Danger!!!!!

Many of the games you have found higher than 5.5 diff that lost were also games that other "predictive models" come down on the other side of the spread. I use a number of models to help me find plays, including kenpom. The 3 main models I use have this game at SMC-31 SMC-30 and SMC-23. Bottom line.....while I can see passing this game, there is NO WAY you could get me to back a very poor team on the road getting only 25.

I think you are working something with merit for a base to plays. You are over thinking it when you start looking to "reverse"

ScreaminPain · 12-14-10, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by TxBulldog

Danger Will Robinson, Danger!!!!!

Many of the games you have found higher than 5.5 diff that lost were also games that other "predictive models" come down on the other side of the spread. I use a number of models to help me find plays, including kenpom. The 3 main models I use have this game at SMC-31 SMC-30 and SMC-23. Bottom line.....while I can see passing this game, there is NO WAY you could get me to back a very poor team on the road getting only 25.

I think you are working something with merit for a base to plays. You are over thinking it when you start looking to "reverse"

I agree whole-heartedly...You're on the right track with your initial tracking methods, although it wouldn't do any harm to track your "reverse" plays for PRACTICE ONLY. Patience, Patience, Patience....

EaglesPhan36 · 12-14-10, 01:55 PM

Yeah as I bolded above, you may want to wait it out and see how this theory holds up. It's definitely not a proven winner, just a theory right now that we'll see if it holds true or not.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-14-10, 04:24 PM

Updated to add Tennessee as a play this evening.

WIZARDOFBEANTOWN · 12-14-10, 05:37 PM

good luck ep

Soxsfan9 · 12-14-10, 07:43 PM

GL on the Tenn play!

EaglesPhan36 · 12-14-10, 08:45 PM

Vols choked in this one. Were up 13 in the 2nd half, let Oakland come back, stretched back to 8 and now tight again. Oakland is a pretty good looking mid major though.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-14-10, 11:45 PM

Reverse Play is a winner. 75-56 St.Mary's wins tonight.

PP · 12-15-10, 02:08 AM

interesting thread subscribed

BernardMadoff · 12-15-10, 04:25 AM

BOL Phan you playing the Federer match next Tuesday?

EaglesPhan36 · 12-15-10, 09:09 AM

Regular KenPom Plays: 59-51-1 [+5.45 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 1-0 [+1.00 units]

12.15.10

Central Florida -20 [KP -24]
Minnesota -15 [KP -18]
UTEP -18 [KP -22]
Wake Forest -17 [KP -21]

Might be a few more lines put up during the day, will monitor and add.

beefcake · 12-15-10, 11:05 AM

Man alot of chalk today..

EaglesPhan36 · 12-15-10, 12:11 PM

Yep, even so I think it could go 3-1 today. Those are some bad road teams involved.

beefcake · 12-15-10, 05:01 PM

Weird, the line has dropped on all 4 games

,,whoever is betting on UNCG needs to have their head examined. I know wake is not wake of old, but dam..

EaglesPhan36 · 12-15-10, 09:00 PM

Not really that surprising that Wake is struggling with their short bench. UCF does cover. Minnesota also looking like crap early. 2-2 is probably a good day with this if UTEP can come through.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-15-10, 10:53 PM

Regular KenPom Plays: 60-52-1 [+5.35 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 1-0 [+1.00 units]

Brock Landers · 12-15-10, 11:07 PM

Eagles, whats the basis for a "reverse" play?

zanman822 · 12-16-10, 02:01 AM

Looks like kenpom may be in a mini slump a little lately

ricohhh · 12-16-10, 09:06 AM

I still have faith in this system!

EaglesPhan36 · 12-16-10, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

Eagles, whats the basis for a "reverse" play?

Reverse Play is my term for one that fits into the formula, but is larger than the 5.5 point differential that we're trying to stay at. So for example the Cal-Riverside/St.Mary's line the other day was -25 for St.Mary's and KenPom had it at -31 for St.Mary's which is a six point differential, so the "reverse" is to take the other side or Cal-Riverside at +25.

Remember again with the formula, you don't have to blindly play these ones that fall into the criteria. These are meant to give you a starting point and then you can craft your picks from it.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-16-10, 09:25 AM

12.16.10

NC State -17 [KP -22]
FAU -4.5 [KP -7]
Memphis -14.5 [KP -19]

DuncHen22 · 12-16-10, 03:28 PM

I love the Memphis and FAU play! A bit nervous about NC State though, after seeing the line drop from -18 to -15. BOL, though!

EaglesPhan36 · 12-16-10, 04:35 PM

Yeah Wolfpack will be an interesting one. Youngstown has a couple of decent road showings, but got beat pretty handily in their last two roadies. But if you believe in the line movement going against the pick, then Youngstown would certainly be your picks. NC State down from -18 opener to -15.5 now.

vyomguy · 12-16-10, 07:17 PM

I like Troy tonight...I think they will win straight up. I dont care what pomeroy says, but FAU will loose straight up tonight.